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-   -   Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/629647-coronavirus-impact-air-travel.html)

racedo 9th Mar 2020 00:18


Originally Posted by OzzyOzBorn (Post 10707235)
Not a medic, so just curious. It is reported that "most" patients will experience C-19 as mild cold symptoms. In this case, it seems likely that many infected individuals will pass undetected, perhaps even unaware themselves that they have had anything more than a dose of the sniffles. They won't seek testing, and therefore won't be reflected in the statistics. But those who develop serious symptoms - and die - will be 100% accounted for in the statistics. So it is likely on this basis that the mortality rate expressed as a percentage is overstated.

You are correct, mortality is only expressed as a % of CONFIRMED cases. In China at the start if you died before it was confirmed you had Coronavirus then you were not tested after death and you just died.

Treat reported numbers with caution from every source.

CW247 9th Mar 2020 01:23

China appears to be getting back to normal (Wuhan not included). Road Traffic is increasing, air traffic I would guess 70-80% (government is paying airlines to fly for the next month), people are back at work and schools opening. Temperature and 'health' barcode checks remain and larger restaurants still have their chairs on tables to avoid large gatherings, though are offering takeaway.Control over the official narrative, social media and press may have allowed the Chinese to keep the the truth away but has also been instrumental in controlling mass hysteria. At home mass hysteria has resulted in panic buying. Something I have not seen here at all.

Any government of the world knows Humans are largely idiotic, and need to be manipulated for their own good. It happens even in the finest Liberal democracy in the world, just when it happens in China it's a little more overt. On WhatsApp and FB, everyday I get to see grown adults acting immature and irresponsible by sharing pathetically lame conspiracy theories not realising what they're contributing to. 24hr rolling news coverage is exaggerating the reality of the virus and the tabloid press (the Murdoch empire largely speaking) are doing the manipulation in order to sell more stories. The aviation industry is going to sh*t and people losing their jobs because of the breeding of irrational fears. Freedom of speech is a double edged sword and here we see another fine example of it.

LTNman 9th Mar 2020 05:10


Originally Posted by nowhereasfiled (Post 10697346)
Me. Swiped some Ryanair flights to Milan for a fiver next weekend. Will be happy to make the most of having the city to ourselves, no queues at the bar, every cloud and all that.

As I said last week your bookings of a last minute cheap holiday was irresponsible and I read today that the Department of Health has stated you must go in self quarantine for 14 days. Hope the holiday was worth it.


Returning travellers

Stay indoors and avoid contact with other people if you’ve travelled to the UK from the following places in the last 14 days, even if you do not have symptoms:
i suspect though that you will not bother to self isolate.

ZFT 9th Mar 2020 05:34


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10707407)
As I said last week your bookings of a last minute cheap holiday was irresponsible and I read today that the Department of Health has stated you must go in self quarantine for 14 days. Hope the holiday was worth it.



i suspect though that you will not bother to self isolate.

Confused. So what happens to operating crews or is airside considered safe? Likewise transit.

LTNman 9th Mar 2020 06:06

Very good points but I expect air travel to northern Italy to end for no other reason than there will be few passengers wanting to travel there to make flights viable.

Jetscream 32 9th Mar 2020 07:10

This is worth watching
 
This is well worth watching and difficult to challenge but will give the airline industry an idea of how long this is going to last....


Captain_Caveman 9th Mar 2020 07:12

Here in Thailand and last week in Singapore, the reaction to the virus is a lot more measured by the general public. Before we headed out here both countries had way more cases than the U.K. 35 and 90. Now the situation is reversed and for all the people who were worried about us going travelling we are now saying that we are more worried about coming home than being out here. There is no mass panic or crazed purchases of shop supplies. People are getting on with their day to day lives and just taking sensible precautions. Hand gel is everywhere in all public places and in shopping centres, public buildings and attractions in Singapore are taking your temperature before being allowed in. The same experiences here in Thailand at a couple of hotels we have stayed in. Some people wear masks but most people tend to stick to the advice that masks are only useful if you are high risk or ill yourself. The government of Singapore has provided masks for all of their citizens to use if they become ill and airports have medics checking temperatures of arriving passengers with teams on standby to take you into quarantine should you raise any concern.

Anyway my point is that the west seems to be in mass hysteria and south east Asia is not.

LTNman 9th Mar 2020 07:23

Very good link and should be compulsive viewing for those that want a understanding about the growth in infections

CW247 9th Mar 2020 07:27

And another update from China, in a bizarre twist, China now saying anyone from even low risk countries like UK must undergo 14 day quarantine at home. France and Germany are medium risk but the logic is if low risk countries are not separating themselves from medium risk then low risk is just as bad.

Barling Magna 9th Mar 2020 08:49

Anybody fancying taking the Golden Road to Samarkand would be well advised to read the UK Government Travel Advice:


British nationals arriving in Uzbekistan from the United Kingdom, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Malaysia or UAE are subject to 14 days medical supervision at their place of stay/residence and are advised not to visit public or crowded places and to limit contacts with other people. Arrivals from these countries are subject to medical monitoring by medical personnel during the 14-day period. This will include physical examination, measurement of body temperature and medical consultations by telephone. If symptoms of acute respiratory viral infections are detected the person will be hospitalised in a medical institution for the purpose of diagnosis and treatment.

Under the measures introduced by the Uzbek authorities, any person subject to quarantine or self-isolation who breaches these controls is liable to a minimum fine of 11 Million UZS (approx 900) or up to 3 years imprisonment.
These measures may be subject to change. Entry requirements may vary and further restrictions could be applied at short notice by the Uzbek authorities.

LTNman 9th Mar 2020 10:11

China has the right idea. We and Europe have been too lax. Decisions are being taken for economic reasons although a slow response to take action will cost more in the long run. The youtube link shows the increase is by a factor of 10 every 16 days. What is happening in Italy now is our tomorrow. All we can do is to try and slow the growth rate but there isn’t much sign of that happening.

Another argument would be just to do nothing and just let it run its course as it can’t be stopped.

nohold 9th Mar 2020 10:11

To paraphrase that YouTube video (above)...

If sufficient numbers of the population are worried then there is a lot less to worry about.

But if no one is worried, then that's when you should worry.


LTNman 9th Mar 2020 10:26

That is because worried people are more likely to wash their hands more often while those that don’t worry do nothing.

BRUpax 9th Mar 2020 11:45

There are over 3,250 deaths per day on the roads worldwide LTNman. Therefore we should take all vehicles off the roads don't you think?

LBAflyer22 9th Mar 2020 12:57


Originally Posted by Captain_Caveman (Post 10707457)
Anyway my point is that the west seems to be in mass hysteria and south east Asia is not.

Mass Hysteria caused by the gutter press who are hell bent on scaremongering. It is only now we are seeing a decrease in cases in China - another week or so and it'll hopefully be something and nothing.

Amazingly looking at the cases that have been diagnosed and then recovered - the numbers are very high. Why don't the press report that? Or does it not fit in with their evil peddling of poison into the public. Said it before, will say it again, the only disease spreading its self around the world is the press.

WHBM 9th Mar 2020 13:09


Originally Posted by eu01 (Post 10706537)
I find it a bit controversial. Is it ecologically acceptable to carry out almost empty flights just because the payments were made much earlier and the cancellations would mean returning the money to all customers?

I don't think any carrier thinks like this.

However, understand there is concern about reducing flights at slot restricted airports like Heathrow, that others may come in during the interim and grab the slots. So far there has been no statement about any concession. In any event, even if there was such a concession announced there is no guarantee that someone keen for a slot (Qatar, Delta, your list may vary) would not mount a legal challenge to it, when it's all down to what some non-aviation judge gets persuaded, or that in the interim the Greta Gushers get the ear of politicians and have the reduction made permanent. Airlines have to look to the long term protection of their interests and their assets, well beyond this issue.

mike current 9th Mar 2020 13:48


Originally Posted by BRUpax (Post 10707681)
There are over 3,250 deaths per day on the roads worldwide LTNman. Therefore we should take all vehicles off the roads don't you think?

What a bizarre post.
Road traffic is regulated with laws and safety standards for that very reason!!

TartinTon 9th Mar 2020 15:13


Originally Posted by BRUpax (Post 10707681)
There are over 3,250 deaths per day on the roads worldwide LTNman. Therefore we should take all vehicles off the roads don't you think?

Deaths on the road aren't infectious diseases. Neither is stupidity, thank goodness.

ZFT 9th Mar 2020 15:53


Originally Posted by TartinTon (Post 10707848)
Deaths on the road aren't infectious diseases. Neither is stupidity, thank goodness.

I disagree. There is much infectious stupidity with this virus.

LTNman 9th Mar 2020 15:59


Originally Posted by BRUpax (Post 10707681)
There are over 3,250 deaths per day on the roads worldwide LTNman. Therefore we should take all vehicles off the roads don't you think?

Doesn’t matter what I think but I note that vehicle deaths don’t go up by a factor of 10 every 16 days and don’t shut down countries, cause stock markets to plummet and oil prices to go into free fall.

The only affect on me so far is a few empty shelves and a drop in my multi asset income funds but I know it won’t be long before you and I are affected big time. I have holidays booked up in April and May and am giving them around 50% of them going ahead due to either both of us having the virus or not being able to get to the destination due to a lockdown.

All this because someone in China sold some wild animals at a market for no doubt pennies.


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