Could we see a new carrier on the block
 

With the demise of a much beloved Thomas Cook, there is now very little left in the independant charter market.
There is a huge void left and i wonder if we are likely to see new start ups take advantage of the lack of choice and open up the markets again.
Could we see another Viking / XL return or something similar.

There's not a huge void left am afraid, the glory days of the integrated tour operator have passed on, joining cassettes, VHS, 35mm film and Woolworths, the market has segmented to self serve from a wider selection of offerings. Too many cheaper options with Ryanair or easyJet or even jet2 at the Holidays end, certainly in the UK.

Unlikely , what we are likely to see though is a controlled expansion by the likes of Wizz UK / TUI / easyJet / Jet2. There is now an awful lot of passengers who will now need someone else to holiday with.

Don't think so, there's already a lot of capacity in the market. Most people these days prefer to make their own holidays with flexible durations, something which the likes of Thomas Cook couldn't replicate effectively.
Lots of people predicted the European market would emulate the USA, where only a handful of large operators remain. This, along with all the other recent bankruptcies is the start, and its just the capitalist way of getting rid of the inefficient ones.
Shame though, i had plenty of good memories on Thomas cooks holidays in the past :(

TC had something like 45 aircraft in the UK market. Allowing for some over-capacity, it's reasonable to assume that existing players will add to their fleet plans by perhaps 30 aircraft - all other things being equal. Expect Wizz, Easy, TUI and Ryanair to be operating between them an additional 30 aircraft by next summer.

There's not much room for a new carrier when you look at it that way. Especially as any growth would need to be price-competitive with some well-established low-cost businesses.

Virgin will most likely increase their MAN base to pick up the former TC transatlantic leisure routes, maybe utilising the former TC airframes initially I would have thought.

Quite possible, but unlikely with the Ex TCX frames.

Article today highlighting how they only owned 3 A330's, all around 20 years. So they'll be cheap, yes, but how long would they last for?
Link - https://simpleflying.com/thomas-cook-fleet-fate/

Capacity has now been removed from the market which is good for those that remain as prices will rise (ignore impact on consumers) and assist proitability. There has been a lot of over capacity so likely only 60-70% max of what is lost will get replaced.

Bearing in mind if Brexit happens and GBP v Euro falls even further then potentially will remove customers from the market for at least summer 2020 as it is just too uncertain. A lot of airlines will be crunching the numbers and some may decide not to add on any capacity if it cannot be profitable.

I imagine current players will take the mantle between them.

Jet2 may decide its too much of an opportunity to miss taking a go at LGW for instance or maybe Bristol and get a good foothold in the South.

Virgin likely will take up the Long Haul routes and consolidate that into their current ops.

The only possible new player would be Virgin having a pop at Europe, although even then didn't stick with Virgin Sun for long so who knows.

easyJet is the interesting one as they are relaunching the holidays arm so may look to utilise that more, but then airports like BHX and EMA that dont have an easyJet presence would be left unplugged.

An opportunity for Norwegian to re-evaluate their UK operation? Or even to provide capacity to TUI / Jet2 who can provide the holidays but need the aircraft.

How many smaller tour operators are left?

I imagine Wizz may be interested in TCX Gatwick slots, they are slowly building up a base there. Plus from Luton they already fly to popular holiday destinations such as Larnaca and Tenerife.

74,000 S20 & 37000 W19 seats lost alone at NCL .Established base for TUI EXS and EZY so im personally being a NCL flyer intrested in seeing who will expand here. I just hope the extra capcity is spread even accross the country and no one place effected by the TCX demise loses out.

I read that Thomas Cook, from it's first iteration, was 178 years old. Very few companies survive 100 years. The change in society and demands just make it so hard for comapnies - in ANY sector - to continue.

The online booking systems will profit a ittle more but one of the big changes is the change in the people making the bookings. People growing up with the Internet, if their parents/grand parents always used TCX, now their children will make the bookings online for them.

I think there may well be an opportunity out there for a new carrier... but only if you can get the name Thomas Cook.

The name alone is worth a fair bit of money, and commands a fair bit of respect and loyalty. Relaunching under the Thomas Cook brand will give any new carrier a good deal of credibility, and would be a good marketing boost.

Package holidays are still quite popular - Jet2 is doing rather well, and as someone else has said, easyjet are looking to relaunch a package holiday offering too. A newly launched carrier following a similar model to Jet2 may well be successful. There's certainly plenty of spare capacity now, if a new carrier can get in quick before Easyjet/Jet/Ryanair/Virgin expand to fill the gap, then there may well be an opportunity here.

There may also be a demand for a separate retail business too - it's said that 65% of bookings for TCX came online - so that means there were still quite a large number of bookings through the stores. Not everyone is tech savvy, or even airline savvy. There's still demand to sit down with an advisor and talk through the options. Taking on some of the more profitable stores may well be a viable business too.

The only drawback though is the current cost of aircraft leases. With the MAX grounding issue, spare aircraft are in high demand, and leasing costs are high. The parked up TCX aircraft may not be parked for long.

If a good deal can be struck on the aircraft, and the name can be acquired - then I think it may well be worth a shot. Certainly a better investment opportunity than a resurgent WOW air.. and that seems to be happening!

Out of curiousity, how can a brand name that has gone bankrupt have any commercial value? Beyond the ability to be instant recognised by the public, when people see the name now, they think of how they went bust.
I certainly wouldn't be convinced to book with a company name that had gone under, no matter how much nostalgia i have

Failed brand name has zero credibility. Would you fly a new PanAm or drive a new Rover ?

TC lost billions and somehow a new start up could fill the gap ? Doubt it for simple reason they would need £100 plus million up front for a start for a business that struggles to make money on consumers. Hotels abroad would need paying upfront for bookings.

The figure of circa £4-500 k cost of a single store means you have to sell a lot of holidays just to cover the store costs.
1/3 of your customers are using stores and this has figure has been decreasing year after year but you figure people will still do it. Every retail model out there is doing the exact opposite because of the cost. Going back to the £500k store cost and figure was TC made circa £200 out of a £4000 holiday. Need to sell a lot of holidays instore.

The instore model is dead. When overwhelming majority of the 35% will have internet access then it is book online or by phone.

There maybe 1% of customers max who cannot book online. Not really sustainable to keep shops open for those.

Put the money up then. Over capacity in the market has been got rid of. A newbie would need couple of hundred million behind it for a model that has marginal profitability and subject to high level of international risk.

Not trying to be personal but look at your age.
Figure you way more than competent to make your own bookings online...... then think of everybody older who you know how to use the net.

In 5 years time you will be 65 ;) and even more using the net to make bookings plus hotels will have a VR model that shows you what they have.

I've lost count how many times the Pan Am name has been revived for use by airlines and subsequently failed.

I also suspect it's not simply a case of somebody new stepping into the breach and starting up with the Thomas Cook name, or at least not at this time.

The holiday market has changed beyond anyone's expectations sine the wobderweb became a thing. I think there will always be a market for the package tour but I think expectations of what you pay probably need raised. Maybe now with MON and TCX gone the market might stabilise to a more realistic pricing point.