Any with 'life' left in them might be good on Jersey for 2021 trips. Any reason why not?

I was only giving my interpretation on the matter considering none of them are operating as of present. G-GDFN is away in DUB getting a C-Check so hopefully they will still be around come S21. As much as I love the -300s, if the demand isn't there overall next summer for 7 extra frames then there is little need for them. Providing this isn't the case they'll almost certainly be operating LBA-JER. However, if the airline is looking at shedding 737s no matter if the year is 2021 or 2022, the obvious first port of call is the -300s, before any of the early -800s leave (providing there isn't a defined technical reason for one to leave.)

It would depend on the respective cost of ownership of the different a/c. I would imagine there are many numbers being crunched to match up capacity with any number of possible supply scenarios for next summer.

Which is why you’re on a spotters website and not in airline or tour operator management. Cancelling ski holidays 3-5 months in advance, and letting all that money leave the business in the form of refunds, and worse still, go to the competition is commercial suicide. Keeping that money in the business for another 2-4 months could be the difference between survival and not in these times.

I know more than a little about cash flow, I also know more than a little about customer service. Fact is though that you can't use cash you're more than likely to have to return to punters unless you're pretty certain there will be more coming in, which presently in this industry you simply can't. As for customer service, being up front with customers will buy you loyalty; holding on to cash then procrastinating over returning it to disappointed customers will lose you good will faster than you can say "Jack Robinson". It is, I appreciate, a difficult balancing act.

Personally I'm not giving any money in the form of deposits, or credit card numbers to any travel related business presently, be they a foreign holiday operator, a UK hotel or for that matter the pub restaurant down the road for the dreaded "Christmas Fayre". I have absolutely no confidence my booking would go ahead, and little confidence my money would be returned in full in a timely manner. That's not to tar Jet2 with any brush, I don't book IT holidays, and won't fly for as long as masks are required in airport and on board aircraft.

But what’s so negative about keeping the bookings active and only cancelling them when they know for sure they won’t go ahead, which is currently the Thursday before the departure date, whilst giving the customer the option to change their holiday if they want what they deem as more certainty?

One might deem it to be negative customer service if a holiday is cancelled which turns out to be completely fine to go ahead, as has happened with the Canaries.

The fact is that Jet2 are the only airline that’s had to restore their entire Canaries program for this week, so they’ve already started at a disadvantage to everybody else.

Jet2 absolutely segregate customer deposits/payments until a holiday/flight is taken. Only at that point does the money enter the business. This is one of the reasons why the company was able and willing to so promptly refund customers when holidays/flights were being cancelled.

I have a current account and a savings account. If the current account is empty and I need to pay my mortgage or I lose my house, it’s coming out of my savings account.

If a company is on its last legs, money in the business is money in the business. It’s going to be a long winter for most airlines, handing money back, potentially unnecessarily, 4 months in advance that may end up with a competitor isn’t good for business.

Besides, a ski holiday is a ski holiday. If you cancel a holiday 4 months in advance, you’ll probably be giving a refund. If you cancel a week in advance but can offer a similar holiday in a different country, chances are a good 50%+ will take it.

Comparing cancelling canaries to ski routes is like apple and pears. For ski routes I am with you and others that cancelling this far out is commercial suicide. However I completely disagree with you regarding to canaries and it appears you seem to forget that a major part of the business model for Jet2 is the Jet2holidays brand.

Even in the beginning of this week no one would of seen the canaries coming back to life as they did. TUI did the exact same with cancelling but they are quicker maybe to mobilise with this news due to having the german arm of their business already operating. I wouldn’t say anyone has the advantage, yes airlines may see full loads this Weekend, however there are a lot of people who maybe are not looking at this week but the week after. The fact that already in travel weekly, with the companies they did a call with, jet2holidays trade has reported 5,000 holidays sold just shows you everything you need to know.

Actually a lot of people did see this coming. The rate for Lanzarote and Fuerteventura has been below 20/100,000 in 7 days for the past four weeks. I don’t think anybody saw the whole lot coming back, but TUI certainly never took FUE/ACE off sale for this weekend.

5000 holidays is nothing. That’s 26 full 737s, or half a day’s program in normal times. Fact is, TUI, easyJet, BA and Ryanair will all have flights to the Canaries this weekend which were never off sale, and aren’t relying solely on last minute sales.

But that is making an assumption the market now is behaving how it always has which isn’t the case. For one thing a lot of holidays aren’t new bookings and cash but postponed ones from earlier in the year. Who in their right mind would book more than a couple of weeks ahead? Yes Canaries have opened now but who’s to say they won’t do a Portugal and close again in a month or less? So last minute is now the dominant force.

On the supply side not having anything scheduled leaves you nimble and able to react quickly to opportunities. TUI and others could be lumbered with schedules which aren’t optimum, or face the cost and customer service risk of having to rebook and refund

I think you’re scraping the barrel now. So why not just cancel everything that’s over a week away and put on a whole program a week in advance based on what’s open?

Keeping existing bookings is just as important as creating new ones. As has been said, giving all customers the option to amend if they’d rather have a booking to a “safer” destination nullifies then customer service argument.

Jet2 fanboys are going to have to accept that they got this one wrong. If not tonight, then tomorrow when two fully booked TUI 787s are on their way to Fuerteventura whilst Jet2 are offering nothing.

I wouldn't get too excited about that, for one thing they'll be returning to the UK empty and for another thing, many of the passengers on board will have paid for their holiday months ago so there will not be a lot of new revenue being generated.

TUI and Jet2 (and other charter airlines of the past) have operated empty sectors at the start and end of seasons since the dawn of time.

So what have we established from the Jet2 fanboys then. All holidays should be cancelled and reinstated a week in advance, but then they should be cancelled too because the first flight after the lifting of restrictions would involve an empty sector back.

As for your second point, this has been explained many times, even in my last post which you quoted. Keeping money in the business is just as important as generating new revenue, especially in these times. I think TUI will be far happier with their approach than Jet2 will be.

For the business that’s probably somewhere around the £450k mark of refunds that no longer have to happen. That alone from just these two flights.

Like has been mentioned, most leisure flights return empty after the first flight of the season, just as they depart the UK empty at the end of the season. It’s common practice.

All B757’s apart from two that need to go for heavy maintenance checks are going to Spain - Murcia over the winter from the 3rd of November onwards for some warmer weather.- planning to ferry 1 out each day.

but EZY,RYR and your other competitors avoid this 1970s business model.

Yeah they might do. But for instance when EZY/FR operate their last outbound of the season to say Kefalonia from London, do you really think it’s packed to the brim? From past experience these flights have very few passengers (if any). In some instances this costs the airline more in airport charges (ie check in etc) than it would to just operate the flight empty.

There really is very little outbound demand on say the 31st October to Kefalonia or similar.

Besides, the cost of empty sectors at the beginning/end of the season is simply included in everybody’s holiday price. It’s not a surprising, unaccounted for cost to the company.

With a bit of tactical scheduling, some seasonal ferry flights can often be avoided. For example the first Winter season flight to Egypt would return via Crete, picking up the last Summer passengers on its way home.

fair point, well made.