LS could just lease a couple of aircraft as they have done this year. Anyway, slots are one thing, terminal capacity (gates, stands, check in desks) is another. T1/T3 are already bursting at the seams at peak times. Unless you’re going to start moving other operators to T2 (at a time when capacity there is limited) how do you fit anymore based aircraft in?

is MAG offloading BOH or not?

How is T2 going to be so space constrained that it couldn't accommodate the slot usage when you are talking about adding in capacity that was going to be operational there in the first place? These slots are not for growth per say, they are for maintaining the status quo really.

Last time I flew out of T2 most of the MON flights were boarding from remote stands as there were no terminal stands free. You have already posted pictures of the building site that is T2, and space is only going to become more constrained as the building work progresses (it's an inevitable consequence of work to an existing building - you have to take its out of service to join the new stuff on, which results in short term capacity issues).

There will also be constraints on landside as the works to car parks and the road network progress. MAG may actually be glad to have some breathing space in terms capacity for the next couple of summers.

Time for my monthly review of the CAA data statistics.......

Manchester Statistics - September 2017 (Part 1)

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

No new routes to report - although Kiev (Borispol) appeared as a 'one off'.

Only one domestic statistic is currently missing from the CAA report for September.

Exeter is missing from the initial monthly statistics for September. In September 2016 the flown passenger figure for this route was 9,724.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics

Monthly passengers - 2,867,212 + 7.4%
Annual Total- 21,752,889
Moving Annual Total - 27,643,286 + 11.3%

Monthly Movements - 19,197 + 6.7%
Moving Annual Movements - 196,633 + 10.1%
 
Manchester Statistics -September 2017 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

PALMA............................................. 119,917
ALICANTE.......................................... 99,789
AMSTERDAM..................................... 85,337
DUBAI................................................ 84,634
MALAGA............................................ 78,347
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 77,930
DUBLIN.............................................. 75,047
FARO.................................................. 66,420
HEATHROW....................................... 54,180
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 52,143
BARCELONA....................................... 49,823
IBIZA.................................................. 48,949
DALAMAN.......................................... 48,755
ARRICIFE............................................ 44,695
ORLANDO.......................................... 41,910
FRANKFURT....................................... 34,813
NEW YORK JFK................................... 37,708
PAPHOS.............................................. 37,024
ABU DHABI......................................... 36,589
MAHON............................................. 33,700
LAS PALMAS....................................... 32,968
ANTALYA............................................ 32,339
MUNICH............................................. 31,968
HERAKLION........................................ 31,139
CORFU............................................... 30,072

CAA statistics for September are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - September 2017 (Part 3)
Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.

Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change
BOSTON.............................................. 8,112............. 8,112.................. 0.................... 464.9
TOULOUSE.......................................... 6,291............. 6,291.................. 0.................... 203.03
MIKONOS............................................ 6,899............. 6,899.................. 0................... 182.05
OLBIA................................................. 5,685.............. 3,852........... 1,833.................... 106.28
OPORTO............................................. 8,730.............. 8,730................. 0..................... 106.24
HAMBURG........................................ 24,232........... 24,232.................. 0.................... 103.75
HURGHADA........................................ 8,940.............. 8,940.................. 0.................... 102.54
SPLIT................................................. 13,116............ 11,283........... 1,833.................... 100.03
KRAKOW........................................... 13,321............ 13,321.................. 0.................... 87.937
PERPIGNAN............................................ 159................ 159.................. 0.................... 82.759
SALONIKA......................................... 10,243.............. 7,421............ 2,822.................... 75.184
CATANIA (FONTANAROSSA)............... 7,418.............. 5,949............ 1,469.................... 73.035
ILHA DO SAL CAPE VERDE.................. 5,331............... 5,331................... 0..................... 70.92
DUBROVNIK...................................... 18,279............ 18,279................... 0..................... 69.156
RENNES.................................................. 189................. 189................... 0..................... 56.198
LOS ANGELES...................................... 7,229.............. 7,229................... 0..................... 52.607
BEZIERS............................................... 4,060............... 4,060.................. 0.................... 51.21
GERONA............................................ 15,016............ 10,491........... 4,525.................... 50.748
GLASGOW........................................... 5,619............... 5,619.................. 0.................... 48,927
NEWQUAY.......................................... 8,726............... 8,726 .................. 0.................... 42.489
CARCASSONNE................................... 4,371............... 4,371................... 0.................... 41.00
GDANSK.............................................. 4,398............... 4,398................... 0.................... 40.377
GIBRALTAR........................................ 10,865............ 10,865................... 0..................... 39.887
ATHENS.............................................. 12,101........... 11,703................ 398.................... 39.06
BILBAO................................................ 6,607.............. 6,607.................. 0...................... 38.686


CAA statistics for September are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - September 2017 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_Pax 2016……..Total Pax 2017……% change
VIENNA………………….. 9,635……….…………….. 9,622……………….. -0.135
BRUSSELS……………… 18,016……………………. 18,704……………….. +3.8188
BEIJING………………….. 8,669 ………………….… 10,580.………………. +22.044
PRAGUE………………… 13,024……………………. 13,479…….…………. +3.4936
COPENHAGEN………. 30,980……………………. 29,103……………….. -6.059
HELSINKI………………... 9,790…………….……... 10,503……………….. +7.2829
PARIS (CDG)…………… 50,737……………………. 52,143…………….... +2.7712
DUSSELDORF…………. 18,278………..………….. 21,558……………….. +17.945
FRANKFURT MAIN…. 36,113……………………. 37,891….…………….. +4.9234
MUNICH………………… 33,314..………………….. 31,968………………… -4.04
HONG KONG………….. 10,028….………………… 10,581 ……….……… +5.5146
KEFLAVIK…………………. 9,294……………….…… 10,887….…………… +17.14
DUBLIN…………………… 77,996……………………. 75,047………….……. -3.781
MILAN (MALPENSA).. 17,321……………………. 16,653……………….. -3.857
ROME (FIUMICINO).. 11,632..………………….. 12,985……………….. +11.632
AMSTERDAM…………. 86,235…………………….. 85,337.……………... -1.041
ISLAMABAD……………. 22,445..…………………… 14,042………………. -37.44
LISBON …………………… 19,412…………………….. 25,214………..…….. +29.889
DOHA…………………….. 30,085…………………….. 28,496………………. -5.282
JEDDAH……………………. 9,002………………………. 8,208……………….. -8.82
SINGAPORE……………… 9,103………………………. 8,116……………….. -10.84
MADRID…………………. 13,607…………………….. 14,326………………. +5.284
STOCKHOLM (ARN)… 12,836…………………….. 16,805………………. +30.921
GENEVA…………………. 14,780…………………….. 17,383….………..... +17.612
ZURICH……………………. 8,855……………………… 10,026………………. +13.224
ABU DHABI…………….. 36,192……………….……. 36,589…..…………. +1.0969
DUBAI…………………….. 78,426.……………………. 84,634………………. +7.9157
ATLANTA……………….. 14,228…….……………….. 12,261………………. -13.82
CHICAGO…..…………….. 9,268……………………….. 8,686………………. -6.28
HOUSTON……………..………… 0………………………. 4,911………………. +0.00
NEW YORK (JFK)……… 34,284…………………….. 37,708………..……. +9.9872
NEW YORK (NEWARK). 8,874………………………. 8,511………………. -4.091
PHILADELPHIA………… 10,792……………………… 10,325……..………. -4.327
HEATHROW……………. 60,867……………………… 54,180……………… -10.99

CAA statistics for September are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - September 2017 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 25 destinations - September 2007 versus September 2017

Foreign airport...........................September-07...........September-17
PALMA.............................................. 114,582...................... 111,917
HEATHROW....................................... 80,047........................ 54,180
MALAGA............................................ 72,404........................ 78,347
DALAMAN.......................................... 69,108........................ 48,755
ALICANTE........................................... 68,506........................ 99,789
FARO.................................................. 65,083........................ 66,420
DUBLIN............................................... 55,441........................ 75,047
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 53,553......................... 77,930
SANFORD.......................................... 47,954.......................... 7,073
AMSTERDAM.................................... 44,824.......................... 85,337
PAPHOS............................................. 44,034......................... 37,024
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 42,838......................... 52,143
LARNACA........................................... 41,748......................... 23,153
DUBAI................................................ 41,653......................... 84,634
IBIZA.................................................. 41,442......................... 48,949
HERAKLION........................................ 35,361......................... 33,139
GATWICK........................................... 33,165.......................... 0
RHODES............................................. 31,299.......................... 26,670
MAHON............................................. 30,668.......................... 33,700
ARRECIFE........................................... 29,892.......................... 44,695
FRANKFURT....................................... 29,402.......................... 37,891
ZAKINTHOS........................................ 29,036.......................... 23,354
BODRUM........................................... 28,836.......................... 10,996
CORFU............................................... 27,802.......................... 30,072
MALTA............................................... 27,676.......................... 21,283


CAA are statistics for September are provisional.

The boarding from remote stands had been planned in for a long time, they wouldn't have gone to the expense of building the new bussing lounge of they didn't want it to be used.

MAN won't want to rest on their laurels getting the slots filled. The redevelopment has to pay off, that isn't going to happen if you turn airlines away due to the build.

As said, the terminal should be ok, it's just adding back in what was taken away, not over subscribing the stands they have.

Passenger experience counts for a lot in my book, it's the main reason MAN T3 is my most hated departure point in the UK by a loong way. MON's departure allows some degree of breathing space to get the T2 development moving whilst trying to cram less into T2. Watching the arriving SQ A359 a few weeks back sit parked up for just under and hour and still be beaten to stand by company going the other way and a half hour behind them suggests summer peak will be tougher than ever in terms of stand capacity.
So MAN will likely take a revenue hit in the short to medium term without MON's based fleet, but from a customer experience standpoint it's a win-win.

Skip,it's reported elsewhere that some improvements are planned for inside T3 which should improve passenger experience.

As regards the absence of MON from T2, are you assuming that few of the MON slots will be taken up, or if extra based a/c are required to utilise some of the slots they can be accommodated by the carriers in T1 or T3? There has been discussion on the capacity issue previously that if, say, 4 more based a/c (compared to the 9 MON based) were needed by T1 airlines, whether it would require an airline moving all or at least part of its operation to T2. I agree that unless MON's 9 based a/c are replaced by 9 others, the net impact would be less based a/c so in theory less congestion at peak periods and a better passenger experience.

However, even this doesn't take into account natural growth that was planned anyway.
I understand easyjet and Jet2 were both planning an extra based a/c - unless that had changed.

The T1 airlines may agree to bussing in order to stay and expand in T1. Jet2 had a number of remote stands over by T2 this year. As did Ezy in the summer peak.

There’s an argument that Jet2 could be the ideal airline to move. They use very few contact stands at T1 so being in T2 for check in and arriving pax wouldn’t mean much of a change to the stand plan.

For me, the best airline to move to T2 would be Thomas Cook.

They have about 16-17 aircraft based at MAN, but up to 8 of those are either long haul (thus not taking up overnight stands) or they are aircraft either arriving late or departing early, thus not taking up much stand time either. This means that they roughly match what Monarch had overnighting at MAN and thus less requirement for any split ops scenario.

They are probably going to move over to T2 eventually anyway to avail a possible USPBC, coupled with the fact the 'satellite' at the end of C-pier is likely to be the first part of T1 to be demolished anyway, it seems the best fit.

If they are comfortable with bussing why would they need to move? They have their own check in area downstairs in T1 so the airport wouldn't be gaining a great deal. What about Lufthansa? The Star Alliance airlines are spread over 3 terminals anyway, so that shouldn't be an issue.

T3 improvements started:

2 more security lanes being constructed.

2 shops closed and converted to seating areas.

Better single to be added.

Eventually yes fully agree, but where would you park 6 or 7 A330s all needing contact stands over on T2 whilst it is half demolished?


USPBC would work very well for TCX because they could then move to T5 at JFK to be with their JetBlue partner thus avoiding a Terminal change as is required now.

American
 

AA continue to cut back, ORD will now run just June-Sept next summer! Still on the 787 but surely this ones on its last legs now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see split terminal operations in s18 for at least 1 carrier.
It won't be popular but when you look at the capacity created in T2 by Monarch's demise & compare it to the size of the other operations there is no obvious like for like replacement.

Terrible news for all who remember this as a pioneering route in it's heyday. Thomas Cook's huge expansion into P2P long haul must surely not have helped.

AA are the architects of their own downfall at MAN -no sympathy or care for them whatsoever. Pitiful performance, out of date product (the 787 is too late) and now a summer only service - this is going only one way.

They should hardly be surprised when competitors exploit their complacency - that's business. I used to be OneWorld Gold, now I don't even have a OneWorld card.

Perfect time for United to step onto MAN-ORD?

When AA insist on using a clapped out B757 to ORD in the winter that requires a fuel stop at Bangor, Maine, they can't be surprised that the route then struggles pax wise too.

Was speaking to the ORD captain the other day, he said he was embarrassed that AA continue to do this.

Speaking to people in the know it's not just AA who are trying to kill the ORD route

Very cryptic!