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Nostoodian 14th Sep 2019 02:10

If Thomas Cook goes the way of Monarch what would be the consequences at Manchester? Surely this would be a devastating blow. Although, after Monarch went bump the Airport recovered very quickly with existing carriers filling in on lost routes.

If Thomas Cook goes under surely other airlines will be licking their lips, and will be quick to profit from the demise of Thomas Cook. I can see some new & existing long haul airlines entering the fray at Manchester. Opportunities for Level, Norwegian, American, Virgin etc to mop up the mess.

The problem is in the short term these Airlines would find it difficult to find the necessary frames to fill in the gaps.

What's the procedure if Thomas Cook goes into administration? Would they they look for a new buyer? What happens to the massive debt? Will the administrator pay off some of the existing debts through asset sales? Do Thomas Cook own many of their own aircraft? How many aircraft do they own and how many are leased? Is Thomas Cook divided into separate companies? Is the Airline business separate from the Travel Agent? It's all a bit confusing.

The Thomas Cook situation seems a bit like the Jet Airways fiasco. Both Airlines groups buried under massive debts.

Wasn't their talk before of selling their airline businesses to pay of the debt of the group just leaving the Travel Agent?

toledoashley 14th Sep 2019 06:49


Originally Posted by Nostoodian (Post 10569531)
If Thomas Cook goes the way of Monarch what would be the consequences at Manchester? Surely this would be a devastating blow. Although, after Monarch went bump the Airport recovered very quickly with existing carriers filling in on lost routes.

If Thomas Cook goes under surely other airlines will be licking their lips, and will be quick to profit from the demise of Thomas Cook. I can see some new & existing long haul airlines entering the fray at Manchester. Opportunities for Level, Norwegian, American, Virgin etc to mop up the mess.

The problem is in the short term these Airlines would find it difficult to find the necessary frames to fill in the gaps.

What's the procedure if Thomas Cook goes into administration? Would they they look for a new buyer? What happens to the massive debt? Will the administrator pay off some of the existing debts through asset sales? Do Thomas Cook own many of their own aircraft? How many aircraft do they own and how many are leased? Is Thomas Cook divided into separate companies? Is the Airline business separate from the Travel Agent? It's all a bit confusing.

The Thomas Cook situation seems a bit like the Jet Airways fiasco. Both Airlines groups buried under massive debts.

Wasn't their talk before of selling their airline businesses to pay of the debt of the group just leaving the Travel Agent?

Thomas Cook isn’t a travel agent, they are a tour operator with retail shops. At the moment everything is owned by the group ‘Thomas Cook’. The Fosun takeover would be a little more complex due to the ownership rules of an airline - so the tour operation majority owned by Fosun, and the airline majority owned by the banks (the debt) to satisfy that. Regarding buyers - we have already gone down this path. Thomas Cook asked if anyone was willing to purchase the airline, but they wanted £800/900m for it (which is essentially what the current deal is on the table for the whole business) - so in the event of a fire sale breakup it would be just that - parts seem to be more valuable as a whole, just as Monarch was. Fosun, along with a Turkish Operator who took a small interest in the tour operation part would likely look at some of those assets.

We are now down to a similar position we had with Monarch, whether their ATOL would be renewed for another year and if they can satisfy the CAA that there is funding to see them through.

TURIN 14th Sep 2019 09:55

Strong rumours of return for BIMAN next year. B787. We'll see.

Suzeman 15th Sep 2019 13:48


Originally Posted by TURIN (Post 10569738)
Strong rumours of return for BIMAN next year. B787. We'll see.

Who (if any) will be first - Biman or Thai if some other rumours are to be believed? Or will HS 2 reach the airport first? Or all travelators on the Skylink be working at the same time?

Re-arrange the following words into a well-known phrase or saying - "my not breath holding". You have ten seconds to beat the clock.

Betablockeruk 16th Sep 2019 08:32


Originally Posted by TURIN (Post 10569738)
Strong rumours of return for BIMAN next year. B787. We'll see.

I didn't think they actually left, just running extremely late, as usual

VickersVicount 16th Sep 2019 11:45


Originally Posted by Betablockeruk (Post 10571088)
I didn't think they actually left, just running extremely late, as usual

and overloaded with pax luggage

pholling 16th Sep 2019 15:38


Originally Posted by toledoashley (Post 10569593)
Thomas Cook isn’t a travel agent, they are a tour operator with retail shops. At the moment everything is owned by the group ‘Thomas Cook’. The Fosun takeover would be a little more complex due to the ownership rules of an airline - so the tour operation majority owned by Fosun, and the airline majority owned by the banks (the debt) to satisfy that. Regarding buyers - we have already gone down this path. Thomas Cook asked if anyone was willing to purchase the airline, but they wanted £800/900m for it (which is essentially what the current deal is on the table for the whole business) - so in the event of a fire sale breakup it would be just that - parts seem to be more valuable as a whole, just as Monarch was. Fosun, along with a Turkish Operator who took a small interest in the tour operation part would likely look at some of those assets.

We are now down to a similar position we had with Monarch, whether their ATOL would be renewed for another year and if they can satisfy the CAA that there is funding to see them through.

Other than the leases on the airframes the rest of TCX and Condor have little value to any non EU operator. They would loose the right to serve the US and much of the EU traffic. In reality of things are looking really bad for the overall group you could see someone jumping in and purchasing routes, crew, and a/c leases off of TC, provided they already operated type and the like. The key would be their willingness to take over current commitments. I have a sneaking suspicion that there are some groups that would love a bit of the action, but not at £800 million and not with long-term provision commitments.

Doc Q 16th Sep 2019 15:56

Thomas cook are going nowhere it’s all panic mongering

Skipness One Foxtrot 16th Sep 2019 16:20

Thomas Cook, like Monarch before them, have no USP and offer nothing that wouldn't be scooped up quickly by others. easyJet and Ryanair tend to beat them on price and frequency and Jet2 have come from relatively nowhere to dominate at former Northern strongholds.
We're closer to the next economic crash than we were when Monarch went to the wall a and no one in their right mind would buy this debt laden business. In terms of long haul, Virgin may well have their eye on some A332s with qualified UK based crews but that's likely the limit of it. You do not need to take on any of the liabilities to take their business if you're ready and waiting the day the business closes.

God that's harsh.......look at Dan Air and BCAL, at least they were folded into a survivor.

Doc Q 16th Sep 2019 16:25

Rubbish , It’s folks such as you who cause panic mongering ,Tommy cooks are to big to fail .

The Chinese deal will go through without doubt ,,The vultures can then move on....

Nostoodian 16th Sep 2019 16:56


Originally Posted by Doc Q (Post 10571434)
Rubbish , It’s folks such as you who cause panic mongering ,Tommy cooks are to big to fail .

The Chinese deal will go through without doubt ,,The vultures can then move on....

Care to add any logic to your prophecy? We're Jet Airways to big to fail? Both companies in similar amounts of debt. Jet Airways owed around $1.2 billion. They had a fleet of 124 aircraft & 224 aircraft on order.

Doc Q 16th Sep 2019 17:15

There is a deal going through which is going to secure the companies future it’s simply a matter of rubber stamping the boxes next week , It’s a done deal, why there is all this panic i don’t know

Brigantee 16th Sep 2019 17:19

I see Gowair are now operating out of MAN for TUI , Have Olympus finished the summer programme ?

Mr A Tis 16th Sep 2019 17:28


Tommy cooks are to big to fail
Hmmm Laker, Court Line, XL, Monarch, Jet Airways, Pan Am, TWA, Eastern, Braniff - none of them were particularly small.
No such thing as too big to fail.
In respect of TCX, obviously we all hope you are correct Doc Q.

Johnny [email protected] Pants 16th Sep 2019 17:34


Hmmm Laker, Court Line, XL, Monarch, Jet Airways, Pan Am, TWA, Eastern, Braniff - none of them were particularly small.
Add in to that the ILG group which was the country’s 2nd largest tour operator and their airline Air Europe. No company is too big to fail, let’s hope that TC manage to sort themselves out.

SWBKCB 16th Sep 2019 18:41

Fosun aren't Greybull

The96er 16th Sep 2019 19:16


Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 10571510)
Fosun aren't Greybull

Fosun aren't the issue, it's the Bond holders that are holding out.

Scottie Dog 18th Sep 2019 10:03

MANTP Update #107 dated 6th September 2019-courtesy of the MANTP Team

Part 1

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Scottie Dog 18th Sep 2019 10:04

Part 2

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Scottie Dog 20th Sep 2019 17:50

MANTP update #108 courtesy of the MANTP Team

Part 1
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https://i.ibb.co/bzKSfD2/Screenshot-324.png

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