I may be wrong, but I wouldn't be sure that Emirates has had that much of an effect on British Airways at Newcastle, there were actually 4,000 more passengers on the route in 2016 compared to 2007. BA has always had a lot of competition for connecting passengers and I think that BA/EK are after different groups of passengers. BA is strongest on Westbound connecting traffic and likely short haul. Routes like FR to Madrid and EZY to Berlin will probably do more damage!

It would be interesting if anyone had the actual numbers for each destination and how many connected NCL-LHR-XXX

What you're forgetting is that since 2007 both NCL-STN and NCL-LGW have been cancelled. 2016 NCL-LON figures are just over half what they were back in 2007.

2007: 902,784

NCL-LHR 495,366
NCL-LGW 109,649
NCL-STN 297,769

2016: 497,386

NCL-LHR 497,386

407,418 passengers used NCL-LGW and NCL-STN in 2007, all of whom were point-to-point customers. Meanwhile, BA carried 495,366 passengers, some of whom were connecting passengers. The figures show that LGW and STN passengers are now flying to LHR (or not at all), and that many connecting passengers are using alternative airlines to BA. The figures strongly suggest that BA carried a lot fewer connecting passengers in 2016 than they did back in 2007, meaning Emirates (and KLM etc) have had a pretty major effect.

As fl dutchman said, the introduction of domestic Club Europe has hit the number of available seats on the LHR route. In my experience, there are normally at least 5 rows of CE on the NCL flight which is 10 less seats overall as the middle seat is left empty for business class passengers.

For an A319 this is a 7% reduction in capacity and for an A320 this means 6% less sellable seats.

The winter timetable does not help loads on BA as the first flight out of NCL leaves too late - if you are connecting on to a European destination it is far more preferable to get a 6am KLM flight than a 7:30ish BA flight. Heathrow slots are probably the issue here as for the past few years the winter timetable has a far later first flight out of NCL than in summer.

BA are retiring the 767s as well so that will necessitate some shuffling around of the A321 fleet and a knock on effect for lower yielding routes.

A320.b744, I did mention earlier the decline of 400,000 passengers per annum due to losing LGW and STN, but I do think you're somewhat mistaken in your assumptions.

I think you'll find that it's much more likely that the ex LGW/STN passengers are now using the train or driving. The majority of British Airways passengers (especially with loyalty) won't just stop using British Airways as if to "make way" for the O&D passengers that now can't fly with easyJet or Flybe (or Jet2 or whoever did NCL-LGW in 2007)

LHR is +4,000 pax 2007-2016
AMS comes in at +30,000
DXB +190,000
CDG is -80,000

I'm also confident that a good portion of STN/LGW passengers were connecting onwards, and may use different routes and carriers now.

I really don't think much has changed for any of the legacies at Newcastle since 2007. Yes Emirates arrived on the scene and some passengers will have shuffled about. But for the most part the market has been stimulated.

Anecdotally, my family had never been outside of Europe (bar Egypt) until 2008... Since then we've been to "Dubai and beyond" with Emirates, every year except last. In that sense, they've created a significant new market because I'm sure we aren't alone. Emirates made medium/long haul travel affordable on a large scale from Newcastle.

Aren't BA cramming an extra 12 seats on to the A320? So the seats for sale will probably be similar, just less passenger comfort.

BA extra seats
 

Think this was done a couple of years ago.

I agree with EK77WNCL in that the people who used to use the LGW and STN routes are now using the train, car, bus etc and only perhaps a few are using LHR.

I do believe that nowadays however the majority of people on the LHR are connecting passengers. Thats why timing and frequency is so important.

If your a regular on this route you will know that is usually very busy.

Re loyalty, I believe there are still a number of Executive Club members using LHR to connect to Australia etc so they have not all gone to EK

Yep, I used the LGW (BA, BE, and did EZY do it at one stage?) as well as EZY to STN on numerous occasions, each time to connect onto a flight to somewhere more appealing than London :)

Times change & so does just about everything else.
Completely pointless looking at reasons in "london" traffic variance without affording due consideration to changes in rail seat volume , frequency & pricing & perhaps the most understated of all for train, the ease of use, i.e turn up, walk on / walk off without any concerns of security checks etc.
Talk of splitting flights LCY /LHR on basis that it may attract more traffic is plain ridiculous !:ugh:
In a poor economy then without providing service enhancements &/or better value for money, then there will be little change. The result, certainly on US routes there is simply greater competition between carriers for connecting pax. In BA's case quality of service also encompasses reliability & some have a long memory of cancelled flights due to industrial action etc.....

Does anyone know how Jet2's upcoming Newark flights are doing? I can see the 17th is full, then the next 2 are on their leased A332. 23rd for 4n is £270 rtn, a bargain if you ask me but makes me wonder if they have too many seats left

23rd has about 15 seats unreserved.

From past experience, they all tend to go out pretty much full, and they don't seem to push prices up last minute, hence there are some pretty good deals to be had!

230/235 when I went last year, I'm sure.

Indeed you are quite correct fl dutchman.

I'm one of those loyal BA card holders who takes the BA16/15 SYD-LHR-NCL & v.v in J several times a year. LHR T5 wins over DXB any day of the week in my view and whilst it might be controversial, I believe BA to be better than EK in terms of comfort and service.

Pleased to see J on the BA domestics now, offering continuity of service to final destination and at least the impression of better value for money.

I'm a self proclaimed Emirates fanboy, but considering the last 7 hours of your journey would be cooped up in a 7 abreast business class, I completely understand why you would choose BA over them! And I'm glad, every airline needs their loyal customers!

I don't have that much experience of premium cabins, but I've flown EK J on the A332 out of Newcastle and Lufthansa Premium economy on the 747 Shanghai - Frankfurt... And I'd pick LH Y+ any day.

Etihad's 789 blows all the competition out the water though! :ok:

In what way is BA J 7 abreast? The seats are ying/yang style yes but when I have flown with them recently (DXB, PHL, SFO, HKG) it's more like 3 or 4 abreast.

The way I read it he's saying EK is 7 abreast not BA.

Yes my fault, I read it wrong. BA is not the best J but Club World is a hell of a lot better than some and you are guaranteed a flat seat. In my experience BA's J fares out of NCL (and LBA) are often super competitive compared to KL and BA ex LHR.

You are correct BA are adding a further 12 seats to there A320/A321 Aircraft. BA are removing a wardrobe from the aircraft and redesigning the galleys as less galley space is required BOB.

BA will begin reconfiguring there A320’s will from 168 to 180 seats shortly. This program will continue until late Spring. The A321’s will be configured shortly afterwards and will have there number of seats increased from 205 to 218, in time for S18

BA confirmed the plans for there shorthaul fleet for the next 5 years.

The A320NEO’s will start to be delivered from early 2018. The new aircraft will be fitted with in seat charging sockets throughout and the new WIFI system. A total 10 A321NEO and 25 A320NEO’s will be in service by the end of 2022.

The 7 767’s still flying in shorthaul will begin to be retired from late JUL18 through until late Dec18. The A319 fleet will reduce in size from 44 now to 28 by the end of 2019. The number in service is expected to only BA 22 by end of 2022. Full details are in the presentation below

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External...52658710557042

I used EK once for long haul but wouldn't do it again.

I hated splitting my journey in the middle. After food, movie and wine I just want to go to sleep and wake up feeling refreshed not kicked off for several hours and end up feeling terrible.

I was a posh geezer recently and the AF NCL to CDG was fine but the CDG to BKK was like stepping back 20 years. Half the flight had Sky Priority so huge queue and an ancient 2-3-2 plane and not many cabin crew.
Back to KLM for me in future who have turned their act around majorly over the last few years.

Interesting roumers that Glasgow is to get an A380 from Emirates. This coincidences with a terminal and pier extension.

Yes it should free up a 777 I'm sure they already have plans for it (dreaming again but a few evening flights for us ?)