Aw damn. Now that you've stated that on pprune, I guess that is it settled.

The history of uninformed posts also makes me quite skeptical ;)

The flight is moderately-loaded and so has a lot of belly cargo space, which is usually filled and is very lucrative. There is freight shipped from Scotland and much of the rest of the UK, even overflow from East Midlands.

Which explains why Newcastle can sustain a daily 777, but not why Belfast could't attract one single Middle East carrier when Dublin have three...

Another important point to note is that when Emirates commenced DXB-NCL in 2007, they did so using the A332 (237 seats). It took five years for Emirates to generate enough demand to be able to sustainably operate the much larger B77W (360 seats). BFS doesn't have that luxury, given that Emirates have since retired their A332 fleet. In order for Emirates to launch DXB-BFS, they would need to be confident that the route could generate at least 200,000 passengers annually (out of 262,800 available seats - approx 77% LF) within the first couple of years of operation.

That is why out of the ME3, Qatar Airways have been the most vocal about a potential BFS route, given that they operate the much smaller B788 (254 seats). In addition, Emirates' B77W has 10 First and 42 Business Class seats, compared with just 22 Business Class seats onboard the Qatar Airways B788. A potential BFS route would likely be unable to fill just 22 J seats, never mind 52 F/J seats, making Emirates even less likely to operate DXB-BFS.

Qatar Airways haven't yet ruled out BFS, and have already launched routes to smaller airports such as CWL, so it is likely that DOH-BFS will be the airport's best bet. However, I doubt that such a route would be in operation until after 2020.

NCL is in a metropolitan area where it has more than a million people, here in NI we have two airports serving 1.7 ish, then a third not two hours drive away. Newcastle also is well seperated from its nearest international competitors by a good distance in that they would likely be Liverpool and Edinburgh. That means despite being a “smaller” airport it has a much bigger catchment area from which to draw bums to fill seats. People will be traveling further to fly to the ME or beyond via NCL than people travel to Dublin.

We have border counties as well. It is irrelevant with regard to 2 airports at Belfast as Long Haul can only operate from BFS.

Ezy A320 NEO coming to BFS this month for a week

Belfast has more passengers than NCL by 2 million, so that's that argument out the window.

If your combining the 2 Belfast Airports yes, otherwise for 2017, BFS was 5.83m and NCL 5.29m

Several key points need to be made;

Yes, when looking at the raw figures, BFS/BHD is much larger than NCL (7,422,922 vs 5,650,716 in 2007; 8,396,404 vs 5,300,274 in 2017). However, in 2007 (the year Emirates commenced DXB-NCL), only 25% of BFS/BHD passengers were international passengers (1,882,354 pax), compared with 70% from NCL (3,948,594 pax). The story is the same in 2017 as well - NCL still handles twice as many international passengers as BFS/BHD, despite handling 3 million fewer passengers as a whole.


In 2007, NCL already had five hub connections - Aer Lingus (DUB), British Airways (LHR), Brussels Airlines (BRU), KLM (AMS), Lufthansa (DUS). On the other hand, BFS/BHD just had two hub connections - bmi (LHR) and Continental Airlines (EWR). Even in 2007, NCL had a much higher demand for additional hub services than BFS/BHD. In fact, BFS/BHD still only has two hub connections - British Airways (LHR), KLM (AMS).


NCL has a catchment area of 3.7 million. BFS has a catchment area of 1.95 million. However, both airports' catchment areas overlap with other airports with ME3 services;

BFS: DUB
NCL: EDI, GLA, MAN

EDI, GLA and MAN are all within a three hour drive of NCL, and for the majority of people within NCL's catchment area, these alternative airports are equidistant to NCL. Therefore, the whole 'BFS doesn't need a ME3 service because passengers can just fly from DUB instead' argument is void.

On top of that, when Emirates commenced DXB-NCL in 2007, they didn't yet operate to DUB, meaning at BFS service at the time was even less likely. In fact, DUB only received its first ME3 route in August 2007 with Etihad Airways, and it took Emirates until January 2012 to commence DXB-DUB.

Lots of interesting answers. I'm not an expert, but I could guess an EK 77W is too big for BFS which was why I was surprised that EK flies it from NCL.

I would have thought QR with their 788 could make BFS-DOH profitable. There isn't a huge difference between a 788 and 321 in terms of seat numbers. That brings me to my next point. QR has the A321NEO on order which should have the range to operate BFS-DOH, maybe thats the real option?

I suppose the really feasible option is Turkish Airlines, they could definitely do it on the 321/739. They'd get people wanting to holiday in Turkey as well as people connecting long haul.

In terms of J class, I reckon most NI ex-pats working in the ME could probably afford a J class seat, or else QR staff could use them on standby tickets; ok the company makes very little money, but better than nothing.

EK has the 787-10 coming...but there is also talk that they could change some orders to 787-9. Which might be an ideal aircraft to start Belfast - Dubai.

I am honestly staggered at the number of flights EK seem to be able to fill...but somehow they seem to manage it. So why not Belfast?

Different markets. How many times does it have to be said?

Take a look at the North East, with the many families of Asian or African descent. Take a look at Northern Ireland, not a patch on that.

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The EK 77W fleet has a number of different configs - the Newcastle route usually gets the so-called "two-class" without First.

Belfast to Dublin is a damn sight easier drive than any of these three.

interesting point, any stats to back that up?

You have conveniently forgotten that Belfast requires flights for the vast majority of travel to GB, whilst Newcastle has Road and rail. Remove domestic travel from both airports, and Newcastle is a much larger airport.

Both Norwegian routes will not operate during Winter 2018/19.

Time for a legacy carrier to pounce on BFS-NA?

You mean like United did?

Exactly, much more respected in the local market. I doubt it would be United but American or Delta could be candidates. Just remember I am speaking out of my backside and I have no information. Just suggesting that It is an option considering how bum-hurt BFS were when the United was only seasonal too at one point, thus they would consider other options and the only options are the Legacy carriers.

I know you are keen to dismiss Northern Ireland and our market.

We have approximately 20,000 people of Asian descent here so not tiny.

Our passenger market is around 9 million which is larger than NCL's 4 million.

I am sure we could handle a Middle Eastern route.