Bárðarbunga update.
 

Some minutes ago (14:04), an earthquake occurred, estimated 4.5 in magnitude.

The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

https://twitter.com/gislio/status/503184571324985344(#ashtag ... heh.)

It also seems as though aircraft are diverting around the area of the volcano [flightradar24].

Iceland Meteorlogical Office:

Warning

It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

Vatnajökull - earthquakes during the last 48 hours (Preliminary results) | Vatnajökull | Earthquakes - all regions | Seismicity | Icelandic Meteorological office

News in English:

Volcano | RÚV

webcam

Bárðarbunga

Have not checked but a couple of days ago the airflow from the North West was due to change tomorrow Sunday meaning any airflow from Iceland will not head our way

Trans Atlantic Flights
 

Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?

Now that part of Icelandic airspace is closed, are the NATs effected? are certain NATs not available? Do the oceanic centers create ad hoc alternative routes, or does "Reykjavik Center" step in and coördinate with the respective oceanic centers?

BA49 LHR-SEA currently seems to be taking a southern route past Iceland and then a different route north over Greenland.

NAT tracks predominately cater for traffic between Europe and the eastern seaboard, and as such usually route to the south of Iceland, and as such do not usually speak to Rekyavik, but to Gander and then Shanwick.

It is worthwhile looking at a Great Circle website to demonstrate the shortest route between two airports - the shortest time route will of course be affected by the upper level winds of the day.

Typically, when I operated trans-Atlantic from the UK to North America, I would not use NAT tracks when flying to the US west coast/Canada and sometimes/usually not en-route to Miami / further south.

Does this help?

For information, Rekyjavik FIR is north of 61N from 0W to 30W, and from N61W30 in a direct line to N63.5W39

Organized Tracks are more south tonight
 

1978 asks Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?
The Organized Track System (OTS) is more south tonight. NAT Track S is the northern most OTS tonight and at 20W it is 53N. That's approximately 11 degrees of Latitude south of Iceland.

Outside of the OTS flights would be cleared on Random Routings as coordinated by the Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) whose airspace will be traversed and the Pilots and their Operations. Cleared routes will comply with any NOTAMs.

Kistufell ? The comatose volcano | VolcanoCafé


For any that are interested thats where the main group of tremors are now.

No Eruption says Professor Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson Iceland´s leading scientist on Volcanes. The Met Office went overboard today when the tremors changed...

http://www.ruv.is/frett/expert-likely-no-eruption-yet

Latest update from the Icelandic Authorities.
 

23rd August 2014 17:08 - status report

Overall assessment from the joint daily status report 230814 of the Icelandic Met Office and the University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences:

The aviation color code has been raised to "red" as the data is currently interpreted as a subglacial eruption. Both the thickness of the ice at the possible contact point (100-400 m) and the volume of lava in possible contact with ice are highly uncertain. It could be 0-20 hours before lava reaches the surface of the ice. It is also possible that the lava will not break through the ice, and the eruption could remain subglacial.

In other words, nothing is certain at this time.

Some interesting read as well... (pages 17 to 19)
Airbus FAST 53
So obviously avoidance is still the only way to deal with it, but it could be done using an onboard detection system detecting vulcanic ash up to 100km ahead, quide enough to divert.

Wired magazine:

Why Volcanic Ash Is So Terrible for Airplanes | Autopia | WIRED

Situation report
 

The situation seems less threatening but uncertain. See

Latest on Bárðarbunga Volcano | Iceland Review

Iceland Review Online: All You Need to Know About Iceland: News, Volcano eruption, Politics, Business, Music, Literature, Films, Art, History, Traditions, Nature, Travel

can often fill in what

Volcano | RÚV omits.