Those pesky scientists...
 

If you are interested in the difficulties and complexity of the science involved in seeking and gathering data from volcanic activity take a little time and read the article:

Characterization and interpretation of volcanic activity at Karymsky Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, using observations of infrasound, volcanic emissions, and thermal imagery - Lopez - 2013 - Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems - Wiley Online Library


You have free access to this content:

Characterization and interpretation of volcanic activity at Karymsky Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, using observations of infrasound, volcanic emissions, and thermal imagery.
Authors.
Taryn Lopez, David Fee, Fred Prata, andJonathan Dehn
Article first published online: 11 DEC 2013

DOI: 10.1002/2013GC004817

©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Geoscience sites for Icelandic Volcanic Events
 

data sites:

Iceland METEROLOGICAL :
Home-page - Icelandic Meteorological Office | Icelandic Meteorological office

"The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) is a public institution under the auspices of the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources, historically based on the Icelandic Meteorological Office (1920) and the Icelandic Hydrological Survey (1948)." It handles all geological surveys and studies.

I was surprised at the level of understanding of the science and public policy process posted earlier. The following sites can help provide the interested, science sources and public policy concerning volcanic monitoring, plumes, and aviation and the challenges faced:

London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC)
London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) - Met Office

Icelandic Aviation Oceanic Area Control Center (English site):
About Isavia

European alarm system for extreme weather:
Meteoalarm - severe weather warnings for Europe - Mainpage

Monitoring Volcanic Plumes from Space:
Monitoring volcanic plumes from space - Met Office


Google mapping Icelandic earthquakes:
Skjálftar fyrir Google Earth

United States Geological Survey site monitoring of Icelandic volcanos:
Iceland Earthquake Information

Iceland Earthquake Information from U.S.G.S.:

Icelandic Meteorological Office, Physics Department
Maps:
Earthquakes - Iceland

Politcal Map of Iceland:
Iceland

Seismicity Map of Iceland:
Iceland

Seismic Hazard Map of Iceland
Iceland

Earthquake Density Map:
Iceland

Recent Earthquakes

Recent Events:
Earthquakes

Earthquakes in Iceland during the last 48 hours:
SIL automatic bulletin

If, and only if, as has been suggested above, this an incipient caldera-collapse…..
As far as I'm aware, the collapse of a 10km wide sub-glacial caldera, on an active spreading-ridge, on top of a postulated 'mantle-plume', has not been tested during recent human history.

does that mean its going to be a big one Zooker?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...n_timeline.PNG

That doesn't look good.

So how far do you take this? Volcanic activity is always present somewhere on earth, so volcanic material is always in the air, in unknown concentrations. The only complete avoidance is to stop all flying forever.

If flying visually, even light snow, tiny ice particles, wisps of cloud or fog, haze or smoke, such as that from coal fired power stations, can be seen and avoided; we do this routinely. If volcanic material were suspected to be present, common sense prevails.

A mandatory complete avoidance, such as occurred last time the Icelandic volcano erupted, is greatly over-cautious and a great over-reaction.

Surely "the challenge" is to avoid the demise of aircrew, passengers and persons on the ground?

That is a challange that they have consistantly failed in avaition.

3 winters based at Keflavik and I observed fine powder-the result of the lava grit spread for friction being ground fine by aircraft wheels- being hoovered into my CFM56s giving all the appearance of white smoke in the beam of the turnoff lights.

Icelandair, Wow and others are regular inhalers of this dust, so are their engines showing signs of ingestion/cooking of silica deposits etc?

Alas the company for whom I worked, now no longer trading, ignored my observation and refused to inspect for possible effects, so I was unable pursue the issue, so will any of the locally based airlines or the regular visitors wish to follow this up?

Ezy, d'ya copy?

@ZOOKER
Surely "the challenge" is to avoid the demise of aircrew, passengers and persons on the ground?

... and equipment?.
IIRC some cancelations in 2010 were made by the airlines and with equipment damage or excessive wear in mind.
Someone in the business here may help refresh my memory.
To the extend that flights may endure increased maintenance costs in the short or long term as a result of volcano ash, who can blame a business from considering that in its overall decision makings.

Read today if this blows big style it has the potential to produce near nuclear winter for a few years, look on the bright side it will stop the climate gravy train like hitting the buffers in the station, but life could be very unpleasant in europe

Best hope at the moment is that the 25km trench causes a major venting, releasing much of the explosive energy.

Bardarbunga is a stratovolcano, as was Krakatoa, and has the theoretical potential to blow big style. But if you read about Krakatoa, there was a preceding period of major earthquakes.

Bardarbunga has only got up to Richter 5 so far. We will most likely get a lot more warning with a period of major quakes before any major event.

But a Mount St Helens type minor bang is of course quite possible.

As said before, lava is not just lava (it is like beer, maybe). There are all different types around and they are all different. Particle size and melting point seem to be the most relevant factors, but basically knowbody knows for sure, due lack of interest and leck of funding, hence no research.
Indeed so far the only way of dealing with it safely is avoidance.

Tdracer

There are a couple of points to consider? firstly the major events of intrusion into volcanic ash where the engines nearly failed completely were into dense volcanic ash clouds not prolonged flight in ash concentrates which are so low as to not be visible in daylight and out of moisture clouds.
Secondly while I appreciate prolonged flight into low density level ash could reduce engine life that then becomes a commercial consideration and not so much a safety consideration!
Where we do not appear to have answers is the density levels which will cause instant failure in the flight and hence a perceived threat to safety.
In most aviation safety regulating demonstrated safety holes are plugged this is perceived threat in the sense that there has been no loss of life throughout the course of aviation history.
I appreciate that had the engines not started that may not be the case now.
its a bit like regulating a reduced speed limit on a known stretch of road with a high fatality rate and regulating a speed limit where there have been no fatalities because the powers that be consider a set of bends may cause an accident in the future.
Both have merit but in this case we do not really have the data and hence have probably been too cautious in picking ash levels out of a hat rather than using proven scientific knowledge and fact.
Also remember the previous event was driven by the media, political pressure and public fear and politicians not scientists danced to that fear.

Anyone know if further research has been published since the BATA Volcanic Ash workshop last October which had this from Rolls Royce

http://www.bata.uk.com/wp-content/up...y-Clarkson.pdf

and this from Airbus

http://www.bata.uk.com/wp-content/up...rry-Nelson.pdf

The UK CAA seem to expect more advice out in 2014 :

June 2013 CAA Board Minutes :

https://www.caa.co.uk/docs/1743/CAAB...tesJun2013.pdf

7. In relation to volcanic ash, it was noted that Rolls Royce is planning to amend its advice to operators to remove the definition of visible ash as being that with actual ash concentration equal to or higher than 2mgm-3. While this is a disappointing development, Mr Haines reported that the current safety risk assessment approach would continue to apply in any future eruptions. It was highlighted that this would reinforce the need for operators to gain assurance from Original Equipment manufacturers if they wished to continue operating in any ash conditions. It was noted that the results of research to establish engine tolerance to ash were unlikely to be available before 2014 and it was therefore unlikely that a more definitive position by the engine manufacturers would be available before then. Dr Stephen Rooney confirmed that the CAA has publicly indicated the need for industry to take a stronger role in ensuring their ability to operate in any future volcanic ash events and was looking at further targeted media briefing to ensure that a public awareness remained on this issue.

8. The Board recognised the efforts that had been made to influence industry to address the ash issue and also recognised the progress that had been made with respect to forecasting of ash, implementation of a safety risk assessment approach and availability of a civil contingencies aircraft during an ash event. The Board were keen however for continued influencing in respect of industry and ICAO on this matter.

9. The Board discussed the sanctions available to the CAA should an airline attempt to operate in an unsafe manner during a volcanic ash event. It was noted that the CAA could remove the airline’s safety case (if there was one in place), or Air Operator’s Certificate, which would have insurance implications for the operator, and ultimately could close airspace.

There are two way at looking at the level of ash vs engines.

As others have pointed we don't have enough information to tell the probability of ash combinations that do cause engine failure (not wear-out modes detectable as post maintenance issue).

But seeing as there is some particles of airborne ash throughout the world being ingested, we do have some meaningful data on what is safe to fly through. The more planes that fly through any measured level of ash, the more these datum become useful in at least raising the bar of acceptable risk.

An Icelandic scientist says that aircraft shouldn't overfly the volcano Hekla, as it's numerous eruptions occur with only 23 to 79 minutes warning.

Link to article (in icelandic)
Varasamt að fljúga yfir Heklu - mbl.is

He lists the numerous aircraft that have overflown the volcano, only today.

He says it only takes the ash cloud between 5 and 20 minutes to reach cruising levels.

the wonders of the internet bring you pretty cool stuff...real time graphs and webcam

http://baering.github.io/

Perhaps he should talk to Reykjavik Centre they are the ones routing aircraft over the top at 'cruising levels'.

OFO thanks for that link.

Its now sitting as my screen saver with 1 hour set. you can almost see things moving.

From the link I gave in post #3:

Warning
It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

Bárðarbunga update.
 

Some minutes ago (14:04), an earthquake occurred, estimated 4.5 in magnitude.

The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

https://twitter.com/gislio/status/503184571324985344(#ashtag ... heh.)

It also seems as though aircraft are diverting around the area of the volcano [flightradar24].

Iceland Meteorlogical Office:

Warning

It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

Vatnajökull - earthquakes during the last 48 hours (Preliminary results) | Vatnajökull | Earthquakes - all regions | Seismicity | Icelandic Meteorological office

News in English:

Volcano | RÚV

webcam

Bárðarbunga

Have not checked but a couple of days ago the airflow from the North West was due to change tomorrow Sunday meaning any airflow from Iceland will not head our way

Trans Atlantic Flights
 

Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?

Now that part of Icelandic airspace is closed, are the NATs effected? are certain NATs not available? Do the oceanic centers create ad hoc alternative routes, or does "Reykjavik Center" step in and coördinate with the respective oceanic centers?

BA49 LHR-SEA currently seems to be taking a southern route past Iceland and then a different route north over Greenland.

NAT tracks predominately cater for traffic between Europe and the eastern seaboard, and as such usually route to the south of Iceland, and as such do not usually speak to Rekyavik, but to Gander and then Shanwick.

It is worthwhile looking at a Great Circle website to demonstrate the shortest route between two airports - the shortest time route will of course be affected by the upper level winds of the day.

Typically, when I operated trans-Atlantic from the UK to North America, I would not use NAT tracks when flying to the US west coast/Canada and sometimes/usually not en-route to Miami / further south.

Does this help?

For information, Rekyjavik FIR is north of 61N from 0W to 30W, and from N61W30 in a direct line to N63.5W39

Organized Tracks are more south tonight
 

1978 asks Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?
The Organized Track System (OTS) is more south tonight. NAT Track S is the northern most OTS tonight and at 20W it is 53N. That's approximately 11 degrees of Latitude south of Iceland.

Outside of the OTS flights would be cleared on Random Routings as coordinated by the Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) whose airspace will be traversed and the Pilots and their Operations. Cleared routes will comply with any NOTAMs.

Kistufell ? The comatose volcano | VolcanoCafé


For any that are interested thats where the main group of tremors are now.

No Eruption says Professor Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson Iceland´s leading scientist on Volcanes. The Met Office went overboard today when the tremors changed...

http://www.ruv.is/frett/expert-likely-no-eruption-yet

Latest update from the Icelandic Authorities.
 

23rd August 2014 17:08 - status report

Overall assessment from the joint daily status report 230814 of the Icelandic Met Office and the University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences:

The aviation color code has been raised to "red" as the data is currently interpreted as a subglacial eruption. Both the thickness of the ice at the possible contact point (100-400 m) and the volume of lava in possible contact with ice are highly uncertain. It could be 0-20 hours before lava reaches the surface of the ice. It is also possible that the lava will not break through the ice, and the eruption could remain subglacial.

In other words, nothing is certain at this time.

Some interesting read as well... (pages 17 to 19)
Airbus FAST 53
So obviously avoidance is still the only way to deal with it, but it could be done using an onboard detection system detecting vulcanic ash up to 100km ahead, quide enough to divert.

Wired magazine:

Why Volcanic Ash Is So Terrible for Airplanes | Autopia | WIRED

Situation report
 

The situation seems less threatening but uncertain. See

Latest on Bárðarbunga Volcano | Iceland Review

Iceland Review Online: All You Need to Know About Iceland: News, Volcano eruption, Politics, Business, Music, Literature, Films, Art, History, Traditions, Nature, Travel

can often fill in what

Volcano | RÚV omits.