The official end of the Boeing 747, say the airlines.
 

Prices for Boeing (BA) Co. 747-400s, the most popular wide-body plane, are tumbling as carriers rush to replace what were once their flagship aircraft with newer and more fuel-efficient models.

Ten-year-old passenger 747-400s are worth a record low $36 million, about 10 percent less than similar aged planes last year, according to Ascend Worldwide Ltd., amid high fuel costs and a cargo slump that has damped interest in converting aircraft into freighters. Forty-eight of the 404 humpbacked passenger 747-400s worldwide have also been placed in storage, according to the London-based aviation consultancy, as the once “Queen of the Skies” is shunned for 777s and Airbus SAS A380s.


“There’s not a lot of demand for the 747,” said Paul Sheridan, Ascend’s Hong Kong-based head of risk analysis. “They’re mostly being broken up for parts.”

The decline in prices contributed to Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA) having a surprise loss in the quarter ended March after the sale of the carrier’s last 747-400 raised less than it expected. Japan Airlines Co. has also stopped using the planes, and operators including Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293), Korean Air Lines Co. and Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (MAS) are following suit to help counter fuel prices that have jumped about 30 percent in two years.



“When oil prices are high, you want your new airplane,” Cathay Pacific Chief Executive Officer John Slosar said this week in Beijing. “The last thing you want to do is hold onto your older planes.”

The Hong Kong-based airline said last month that it’s speeding up the retirement of its 21 passenger 747-400s. The carrier plans to shed nine through early 2014 as it adds more 777-300ERs for long-haul flights. Cathay is also retiring three -400 freighters this year because of the arrival of new 747-8 cargo planes.

1960s Development
The first four-engine 747-400 was delivered to Northwest Airlines in 1989. The standard version can fly as far as 7,260 nautical miles (13,450 kilometers), carrying 416 passengers in three classes, according to Boeing’s website. The Chicago-based planemaker delivered the last of 694 -400s in 2009. The original 747 was developed in the 1960s.

The passenger version of the newest 747, the -8, entered service this year. It can fly 467 passengers in three classes as far as 8,000 nautical miles. The twin-engine 777-330ER, first delivered in 2004, can carry 365 people as far as 7,930 nautical miles.

“We’re seeing a lot of airlines understanding that they need more fuel-efficient planes and that bodes very well for us,” Jim Albaugh, the head of Boeing’s commercial-plane business, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Newer aircraft use less fuel because of the development of more efficient engines and of lightweight materials. The 787 has a fuselage built from reinforced plastics, compared with the 747’s heavier aluminum shell.

Thai Airways
Thai Airways International Pcl (THAI) is in the process of selling four 747-400s and it will begin phasing out the model next year, outgoing-Chief Executive Officer Piyasvasti Amranand said May 31 in Bangkok. The carrier will begin receiving six on-order A380s this year.

Flying 747-400s now “doesn’t make sense,” Amranand said. “It’s obvious that with this sort of fuel price that it will cost you.”

Malaysian Airline System Bhd., which received its first A380 last month, will consume 1,181 barrels of fuel flying the 494-seat aircraft to London from Kuala Lumpur, according to Maybank Kim Eng Securities analyst Wong Chew Hann. The carrier’s 359-seat 747-400s use about 999 barrels of fuel on the same route, he said. Fuel accounts for about a third of airlines’ costs, according to the International Air Transport Association.




A380 Prestige
The A380, which surpassed the 747-400 as the world’s largest commercial plane on entering service in 2007, has become the flagship for carriers including Singapore Air and Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) Airlines still reliant on 747-400s are at a disadvantage in terms of costs and prestige, said Maybank’s Wong.

“It takes an A380 to beat an A380,” he wrote in a June 8 note.

European carriers, operating in slower growth markets than Asian airlines, are replacing 747-400s less quickly. British Airways, the biggest operator, will only retire the last of its fleet in about 10 years. The carrier has 55 747-400s, according to Ascend.

“It’s a great aircraft, customers love it,” said Willie Walsh, chief executive officer of BA’s parent International Consolidated Airlines Group SA. (IAG) “We could replace some of them with 777-300ERs, which we are doing, but we are not looking to replace all of them.”

‘Attractive Aircraft’
BA has also ordered 12 A380s, which will start arriving in about a year. Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) has already begun flying A380s and it has ordered 747-8s. It will still continue using 747-400s, partly because it owns rather than leases them, said Chief Executive Officer Christoph Franz.

“We still think it’s an attractive aircraft and we will use it for quite a number of years,” Franz said. “They are very competitive aircraft in the market for us.”

Newer and smaller long-haul planes are also allowing carriers to open new routes that wouldn’t be profitable with the 747-400. All Nippon Airways Co. (9202), which will retire its last seven 747s by March 2016, is starting flights from Tokyo to San Jose and Seattle using new 787s. Japan Air is using Dreamliners to open routes to Boston and San Diego.

The move away from larger planes has curtailed sales of the A380 and the 747-8, according to Richard Aboulafia, vice president of the Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia forecaster. Airbus has sold 253 A380s. Boeing has orders for 106 747-8s, of which only 27 are for commercial passenger operations.

“The market for large aircraft in general is disappearing fast,” Aboulafia said. “Most of the 747-8 planes are cargo. There’s just a limited market.”

A colleague told me the other day he had just read an article suggesting seat-mile cost for the 748 was lower than the 380, don't know where the article was, but, if true, "the queen of the skies" still kicks the "Blobs" ass.

Still think that you can buy a 'lot' of fuel when flying a 'paid for' B744 rather than purchasing the 'flying forehead' that is already showing major design flaws mere years into service.......
Boeing builds a tough airplane that has served the world for many years......
Wonder how Airbus will compare??? Not so well me thinks!!
Just my .02 Cents worth

Jayceehi: Wonder how Airbus will compare???
 

The 747-8 streched jumbo is for sure an improvement in efficiency, haven't the datas though (the airlines CEOs neither?).

The 737 MAX (the same engines as the A320 NEO?) will be welcomed too in this oil crisis.

Fact is the B747 is disappearing. Airlines are speaking. They buy either the A380, eiher the B777 instead.

An aircraft that first entered service nearly 25 years ago is now being superseded by newer, lighter, more fuel-efficient types ?

Gosh, who would have thought it ?

Stating the obvious.
 

Right on, it just does make sense.

I haven't got a clue what this means.

On these figures, the 747 uses about 15% more fuel per seat than the A380. If fuel is one third of costs then that is a 5% cost difference, which is honestly no big shakes. Offset against that is the purchase price of a new A380 against a fully depreciated 747, while on the revenue side, on a given departure you are not going to make the same overall yield per seat trying to fill 494 seats compared to 359.

Somewhere is a threshold in the fuel price above which the 744 gets too costly.
With the rising fuelprice the threshold goes up, with dropping airframe value it goes down. Leasefirms will offer huge discounts to operators, making it even more interesting to keep them.
Availability of parts, crewcost, reliability rates, changes in infrastructure, everything changes the picture, not too easy to calculate.
What about sparefleet? To operate 10 long haulers you need one spare. For the price of one 380 sitting around you can have 10 747's.

[Not a pilot] Are the A380s flying with all seats filled? I know I have seen posts that hint that the answer may be no, but I do not know if there is a pprune.org thread which has covered this question decisively.

Your thoughts about the flutter problem?

Interesting contrast between the views of e.g. Cathay and MAS on the one hand and BA and LH on the other on the future of the -400. As said elsewhere, you can buy an awful lot of fuel for the difference in capital cost between a written down -400 and a 777-300ER or A380. You can also afford to reduce utlilisation when times are tough. I guess one of the issues is that, as fuel prices go up, average long-haul pax densities seem to be going down. Was a time when the average seat count on a three class -400 was around 425 and now it's below 400. Airbus used to advertise the A380 as a 555 seater in three classes but, other than Emirates, few operators have more than 500 seats in the thing. If you have floor space to play with in order to provide first and business class pax with the space they apparently need and do so with a relatively lower reduction in overall seat count your aircraft will look relatively better.

You also have to factor in maintenance costs , the 747-400 is still 60's design which structurally is different to the modern types both airbus and boeing . recall a few years ago boeing quoting a 40% reduction in maintenance costs on 777-300ER V 747-400. No 'D' checks on modern types. less structural repair work when the hours/cycles mount up.

I do not know if airlines in general care what Pax think but once you have flowna 380 everything else is a poor second best. Cannot speak for the 787 but those two aircraft dont compete. the 380 is much more comfortable than the 74, my previous favourite and way better than the 773 which is noisy, wallows around horribly and has a rubbish cabin conditioning system.

I think SQ have come to the same conclusion and dropped the 777 from ther LHR flights because peopel shun it for the 380. If that is general trend then pure/simplisitic airline economics do not tell the whole story

4 Engine shop visits versus 2 already make a huge difference in Mx cost... :8

The question was aked do A380's fly full, I wonder what the relevance of this question is as you could ask do all 744's fly full I suspect the answer would be no.

On personal experice I have been on the EK A380 out of Manchester and onwards around a dozen times now and each time it has been pretty damn full particularly in Business, however I know there have been times of late when it isn't but that is the nature of travel.

Truth is thr 747 lovers will continue to say there is nothing better and the Airbus haters will say the aircraft arent as good. All subjective really.

Does anyone know anything about the Boeing Y3 project then?

This goes for the usual CF6 but I was told that the cost of maintaining the 777 engine are huge; a big disappointment. (Heard in the grapevine)

This is what happens when you get to be the monopoly engine supplier on a popular type. GE don't need to try to be price competitive with parts, etc, any more - why should they, nobody can go to Pratts or Rolls any longer for 777 engines.

Strange - Boeing are still marketing the PW- and Trent-powered 777-200/-200ER/-300.

GE have the monopoly on the 200LR and 300ER, which account for ~50% of 777 orders (and far more than that (80%ish) in the last 5yrs).

However, the Trent has a de-facto monopoly on the A350, with over 500orders.