I like Sir George Cayley's thought process on this one, but I don't think it's a quick solution. The E-Jets just aren't available. The short-haul domestic routes to LGW from my experience have always been more expensive than that of LHR to the customer. Add the fact that they have Easy on their doorstep, the LGW operation for short haul just doesn't make sense. It works well, as VS have proven, as a point to point long-haul airport. But as stated earlier in the thread, BA are now having to look at whether or not it is worth short haul fleet renewal at LGW, I would say it isn't. The money just isn't there for it to happen.

In my eyes the best move for BA is a LHR/LCY operation. Those routes such as JER which don't make too much sense to LHR but do to LGW (because these pax are mostly O/D) - it would be suited well to the BACF ops at LCY. There's clearly some sense in the thought process behind a potential closure of SH at LGW, but whether now is the time, I don't know. But I don't believe that BA have enough of a bit in BE to 'shove' short-haul ops at LGW entirely on to them.

The get-out clauses for the Baby 733 are very expensive. As the majority of BA 737-436s are due to go through a very expensive check over the next 18 months, the case is being made that some of the -436's can be retired now, and the Baby 733's take their place. No need for the big expensive fleet renewal program. Besides, most senior BA management will tell your there is no appetite to spend $1bn on a business model which doesn't work. Moreover, the Golden runways will always get the investment before Crawley International.

The 'new' business plan was supposed to have been put to the board last month. However, the Cabin Crew rejected the proposals, and Cruella di Vil and her cronies threw their toys out of their pram and now won't go to the board. As far as I'm aware, IAG have said no new business plan, no LGW.

BA have just had a load of Airbuses (bmi ones) dumped in their lap that they won't need once the bmi integration is complete. Therefore they will be a perfect fit down at LGW! They have already stated that most of the bmi slots will go to LH therefore makes perfect sense to put the bmi a/c at LGW.

Gatwick then continues, possibly expands, at very little extra cost. :D

As far as i can see this is just the same old rumour that pops up every so often.

BA @ LGW is here to stay, and the recent IAG press release suggests that we could well be seeing more for LGW

It would seem to me that keeping Gatwick makes good business sense. There is potential to grow and test new routes before transferring them to LHR.

Also the south east is a pretty wealthy area of the UK and lots of people like to travel, for leisure, from LGW which is easy to access and cheap to park etc.


I use it frequently and love it.

What about a return from EDI to LGW by cityflyer with a shiney new fleet of EMB 195's

When i suggested this previously i was told that its not possible due to some sort of agreement that doesnt allow Cityflyer to operate into LHR or LGW


cs

That's right, it's not a straightforward issue of deploying the ERJ into Mainline. What works on BA CityFlyers cost base won't automatically work at LGW. Also it lacks the volume to do well on bulk leisure against EZY.
I assume there would be a not insubstantial refurbishment cost in refleeting all the BMI Baby to BA Interiors. BA prefer their own aircraft, indeed the only second hand machines they have are two A320s that were built to BA spec for GB Airways.

The guy who said that BA won't need the BMI fleet after integration is mistaken. BA *must* fly the slots at LHR and to do that, they need the bulk of the current BMI fleet. It's not a year long process it's going to take three years plus to rebalance to more long haul as B787s and A380s arrive, in the meantime, those slots must be used or lost.

To the question of whether I am sure long haul LGW is profitable as a stand alone business, I believe so. They do currently feed long haul from GLA/EDI/MAN but I don't see this as integral. LGW was de-hubbed remember. INV, IOM, ABZ and NCL went as did the early MAN-LGW, so it does appear they are running long haul on a point to point business model. The dropped domestics were taken up by flybe on a codeshare basis, not something too likely against EZY on GLA or EDI but not impossible!

It is well know that BA are uncompetitive against EZY, though any loss of "market share" is balanced against the fact that short haul LGW is not seen as a core business. We shall see.

BA *long haul* appears to have a future, without a business case approved by the board, there will be no replacement of the B734s and short haul will end. This is the core of what's happening, B735s gone, B733s gone, B734s going. If they really do stop gap with the Baby fleet they are clutching at straws.

Only one thing could end the complete BA and VS presence at LGW: a third rwy at LHR.

Without this, it won't happen, with it, maybe, but that raises the question of terminal capacity at LHR.

The bmi slots at LHR must be flown to keep them, however as they convert over to L/H routes the bmi airbus fleet is surplus, at that point it would seem the best option is to place these a/c at LGW to replace the old 737's, ensuring fleet commonality

Or maybe Vueling will fill the void? Spanish market contracting, IAG asset? Helps protect IBE Ex to continue expansion and help cost cutting exercise in Spanish mainland.

Flybe's embs hold 118 seats, so can't be used to fly for BA as it is against the scope clause. The smaller ones could though.

ex BMI-baby 737s
 

Anyone know how long the (14)various leases have to run?
I wonder if we might see a couple of baby planes used short term on BMI LHR domestics to allow BMI 319s to be repainted/reconfigured?

cs - I think the agreement you are reffering to is "scope" This prevents any subsidiary or franchise operation from using the same type of aircraft as mainline, or with more than 100 pax seats, Hence EMB 195's. Remember cityflyer was originally a LGW operation.

So why doesnt IAG do to BA what it did to Iberia? ie. Iberia run long haul and Iberia express run short haul ? After all it was the BACityflyer business model they used to set up Iberia Express, so whats good for the madrid end of the business will probably work at the London end as well, sure the London end will scream and shout just like the Madrid end is doing, but I am sure IAG will quell the dissenting voices.

LGW short haul won't move into profit just by flying Airbuses. As to cost cutting, LGW has been pared down for years. Any who cheers in Vueling needs to undrstand how very, very little they pay people. Cheering on the continued erosion of safety and training is not wise in this particular case.

Do Vueling or any other so called low cost carrier not conform to rigorous safety standards then ? - another misconception !!. Being paid less than more established 'flag' carries does not equate to a lack of safety or training.

Has been rumoured many times before, but will only believe it when it hapens.
On another issue - didn't BA spend £millions recently revamping North terminal. Bit shortsighted if they really are to pull out.

"Gatwick is closing" rumours are cleverly started whilst BA is outsourcing a load of jobs and more than likely looking for cuts across remaining staff. Bit of a coincidence?

The fact is, that BA doesn't have, and won't ever have the slots at LHR to move its routes from LGW over. The BD slots are needed for new routes and increases frequencies on important routes. LGW serves its purpose as a primarily leisure based operation

True, which is why they should be exiting markets in which they cannot compete, i.e. those against easyJet. They can keep the 7-8 B777s for point to point leisure without bleeding the cash from mucking about to sun destinations in Europe.

BA does not want to convert all the bmi slots into Longhaul - around 70% of bmi slots will stay as shorthaul over the next few years, so the guys who think that there will be a glut of 319's available to LGW are not necessarily correct.

Who knows what BA will do with LGW, certainly no-one outside BA management know, but I would not be surprised if LGW came to LHR, its all about which airport the most profit can be made.

With so many variables, who knows! All i know, is when BA does makes a decision, it seems a very obvious thing to have done