The EU will now refuse thetakeover as LON-IRL market moves from 4 operators (FR EI AF and BA) to 3 operators AF FR and B A. If FR had any hope the slots would need to go to VS.
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Its shows the importance of EI
The whole crack story with EI etc just shows the strategic importance of the airline to Ireland. Heathrow despite the recent growth of EY etc is still vital as an airlink/hub to Ireland. Maintaining the connectivity is absolute. If BA or anyone finds a better use for the slot.......it's gone to new routes say "SFO" or wherever.
Obviously there is a bigger game going on in the background. Regards |
You only have to look at BWIA to see how they undersold and were manipulated by the 'big players'. Now they have...?
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Ryanair has signed an MOU with BA to transfer up to 20 slot pairs as part of a new package of remedies to gain approval from the EC to takeover Aer Lingus:
Aer Lingus dips on Heathrow fears - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 The Sunday Business Post - Ryanair seen selling key Aer Lingus routes if deal succeeds IAG inks MOU with Ryanair | ATWOnline As part of the MOU, BA would takeover the Dublin, Cork, and Shannon routes to Heathrow for 3-5 years and could result in up to 6 BA aircraft being based in the Republic. This would leave Aer Lingus with just 4 slot pairs at Heathrow. I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route. I want to support a Ryanair takeover of Aer Lingus, but this latest remedy package just sounds crazy. There's no strategy, no logic, I don't see how it benefits Aer Lingus, or the consumer for that matter. If this is what it takes for Ryanair to get approval from the EC to takeover Aer Lingus, it's not worth it.
Originally Posted by BALHR
However I do support the sale of EI's slots at LHR (which are of a simlar number to VS at LHR), because BA would be able to lanuch new routes so they can better compete with its rivals in Europe and the Middle East
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I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? |
FR are getting a bit carried away, they havent gotten approval yet and they are already signing agreements with BA and the article includes Flybe, why on earth would FR do anything with Flybe? What routes would BE be invited onto? LGW DUB? Given BEs declining relationship with LGW couldnt see a future in that route for them.
DUB LHR is the busiest international route in Europe. There will always be a strong case for having minimum of 10 round trips a day. It is a strong and sustainable route so wouldnt have many worries about its survival without EI. However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent. Does anybody know in what way will the EU investigate, i.e will they consult with other airlines in the market to get a sense of the competitive environment? If that makes sense.... |
Originally Posted by Jamie2k9
They are keeping 4 slots for competition reasons only.
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There's nothing in the articles above to say there'll be any restrictions on how the remaining slots are used. And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs? |
It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI???
Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA? |
Originally Posted by EI-BUD
Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?
I mean nobody predicted Aer Lingus would bid for BMI's former LHR slots when the EC first forced BA to release them as a condition of the takeover. |
FR spin
Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt
The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months |
Originally Posted by Hangar6
LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs
Originally Posted by Hangar6
and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...
Originally Posted by Hangar6
look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months
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ROI LHR
Traffic is still very robust on LHR
BA came back this summer,8 round trips annouced per day, never happened Currenty 7 and willreduce to 5 next summer on week days ,4 at weekends Your right BA have also just discovered ROI east bound LHaul traffic now goes via desert on brand new planes at attractive prices without the need to go terminal 1 to 5 in LHR FR bid is dead in the water and MOL is really struggling to keep the door open for his appeal on the decision. I am not convinced politics doesnt play a part in any competition decision here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI however maybe I am wrong time will tell but there is a compelling need to keep one of the very few profitable shorthaul airlines in Europe on one of the busiest routes in order to compete with FR BA cannot compete on shorthaul to ROI with FR , EI can and this competition has to be protected and I believe EU will not want to see take away the healthy competion between two profitable Iirsh airlines . time will tell , |
Originally Posted by Hangar6
I am not convinced politics doesn't play a part in any competition decision here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI
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EI has way more slots at LHR than VS, they're the 3rd biggest holder of slots there. This is because EI operate high frequency flights to and from LHR where as VS operate long haul flights. According to this both EI and VS have 304 slot pairs (or 3.3%) for the Winter 2012/2013 season However, VS operates far more destinations that EI does about of LHR Easyjet does not fly to Ireland, and Flybe do not fly to any London airport from Ireland either. If the slots were sold to BA you can bet that they won't be used for IRE-LHR routes as BA would find more profitable use for them on Long haul routes. The EU will now refuse thetakeover as LON-IRL market moves from 4 operators (FR EI AF and BA) to 3 operators AF FR and B A. If FR had any hope the slots would need to go to VS. Forget VS buying those slots however, they biggest concern for a state is who is now going to operate LHR-MAN/EDI/ABZ and why would DL allow VS to buy those slots anyway when they serve DUB themselves? If anything, this just reinforces the fact that EI cannot be sold to FR as Ireland would lose it's LHR connections There are many other reasons why FR should not buy EI however... |
BA are just sitting on those slots, mark my words within the next 18-24 months BA will certainly be out of DUB and most likely out of BHD as well.
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Slot sitting
Agreed BA have already gone from 8 announced to Dublin, only ever got to 7 and now down to 5 from S13
Easy and FLYBE do not fly to Ireland , they are domestic operators to BFS BHD...Easy did try once but were chased off by FR pretty well overnight , and that same scenario will happen again once FR get EI, the alleged replacemnt carriers will get a free run for a while , maybe even a season then they will be undercut and scheule matched until they leave, as in GO BUZZ and currently Whizz on CorkPoland BA will never make money shorthaul and they just need feed for Longhaul ex ireland ,,,, thats the bit outside the UK, .... BUT Any brief look at Longhaul ex IRELAND tells you ba are finsihed, Emirates Etihad and now Turkish have taken the longhaul traffic South and East and the 10-14 flights a day westbound to USA take that longhaul slice. When BA left Ireland 20 years ago they had a Longhaul product ex IRELAND However its moved now to the new hubs , new planes, lower fare, less termianl swaps etc. IRELAND is tiny but supports Etihad x10 a week to go 12 from S13, 6x777 and 6x330 Emirates 777 X7 a week soon to go 14 daily Turkish daily soon to go 10 a week 737-900 Ba will re visit code share with EI in IRELAND , not sure about domestic UK BHD MAN ABZ EDI but deffinitley IRELAND But their feed has gone, maybe they dont need it as certainly their capapcity cut backs reflect this. |
When BA bought BMI, they gained their LHR-DUB/BHD routes, now BA could have scrapped those routes (like BMI's routes to some destinations), but they did not, even if they scrap all the ex-EI LHR routes 9and they are likely to), they will still operate from LHR to Belfast and Dublin BA in Dublin, 8 a day from the outset was ambitious. Clearly slot holding. I dont see BA long term in DUB, though they will watch with interest what the outcome of FR takeover of EI is on that one. Easyjet and Flybe operate on the London-Belfast route, remember when we are dealing with Ireland, we are counting both the ROI and NI EI-BUD |
I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route. BA will not have a monopoly on LON-IRE (not LHR-IRE, there are several airports in LON), because Easyjet, Flybe and Ryanair thenselves will be competing on those routes Remember what happened when Ryanair took over Buzz (the remains of Air UK that where not transfered to KLM), they will do the same to EI, and they have already starting the process... However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent. However EI should sell their LHR slots to BA, even if the takeover falls though (they can still codeshare on BA's LHR-DUB flight for example) And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs? I don't know but if I was part of the EC investigation team it would not look good from their point of view for BA to being given 100% control of IRL-LHR market. I see no other reason why FR would want to keep them. It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI??? BA should buy EI's LHR slots whatever happens, the is a lack of space at LHR for a start to lanuch new flights to compete with its rivals Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA? It'd be the same as it's a central company that allocates the slots. So Ryanair could have an MOU with BA to transfer the slots to them, but Virgin could end up getting them or it could be split 50/50, or who knows CityJet could bid for them. Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes While I agree that MOL/FR is foolish to buy EI, they refuse to give up, honestly I expect it to go on and on until either they are sucessful or a "white knight" bidder emerges (the best one would be IAG) LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months |
The reason they are retainng 4 slot pairs is for competition reasons, personally I think they will discontinue EI's services to LHR and then sell the remaining 4 slot pairs to BA |
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