Aer Ryan,

It will get busier for lots good reasons, here are some;

Loads of new capacity, like Aer Lingus routes that started last year EWR, LAX, BDL. Extra long aircraft added like the 2 new A330-300s last year and already 1 this year. The US carriers putting larger aircraft and capacity on, like AA using more A333s and UA now using 777 daily. Ethiopian Airlines into year 2 of DUB LAX and also Addis Abba. Norwegian.

Like Qatar Airways daily to Doha, Lufthansa additional capacity on German routes, more 321s and an extra daily FRA being added later in the year. Increase in frequency on AMS by KLM, not only to x5 a day but 737s being added to the schedule from later in the year. Wow increase in capacity to KEF, extra days and more 321 than last year. Transavia to Munich for the summer is new capacity that wasn't in place last year. Cobalt Airlines to Larnaca, a longer season this year as the route commenced at a later point last year to this year.

The airport is doing greatly and the level of connecting traffic from EU to US and versa is growing strongly.

With all that extra capacity, it's surprising that growth isn't even higher. Almost makes me think that some services must be struggling.

FR trimmed capacity this year.

Over 800,000 additional passengers in 6 months is still impressive.

However, EI-BUD, the UK market, Dublin's largest market, is struggling massively.

Hardly surprising given 14 months ago £300 for a weekend in Dublin got you €420, now it gets you €330, 22% conversion hit plus prices have gone up as well.

Friends do Dublin weekend trip on average every 6 weeks or they did over last couple of years, Golf, nights out in Dublin etc. Book well in advance so up to Nov last year booked in May, this year they have been twice. Prob twice more this year they have planned.

And should Brexit be anywhere near as awful as predictions are being made out to be, traffic will continue to fall from the UK side. It's possible that EU/US growth will continue, however I suspect overall figures aren't far from temporary stagnation.

I note BHX will soon be losing its service to EWR, few more connecting pax into DUB?

Wouldn't worry to much about the UK side, the slight dip is FR cutting the most capacity (daa row) from there, they were flogging huge amounts of cheap seats in recent years. Visitors have dropped but traffic has not declined as much.

Transit is more heavily from US to UK and Europe.

EI will likely grow T/A by 10-15% next year and I'm sure they will be a lift in short haul as well but much more moderate.

May +1%, Apr +5%, Mar flat, Feb no comparative available, Jan +8%.
Data from CAA Stats, and the May figure from DAA news item. The stats are good YTD, we may have a challenge for visitors due to currency, but overall the numbers are up. I wouldn't be overly concerned for the UK market, we have huge VFR and huge business traffic over and back. From an airports perspective, a weak currency makes the UK attractive for people flying over, and besides in Dublin there is a huge challenge with bed space, so larger outbound is the opportunity for the airport.

There is a growing and huge connecting traffic and that is only going one way at this time.



Capacity is consistently being added ex Dublin to/from the US, many factors will continue to stimulate this, the sheer volume of foreign direct investment, the HQs of many multinationals in Dublin, driving strong business traffic, increased connectivity via Dublin to/from the USA and vice versa, the market also to Ireland from the USA is huge, and as new capacity opens up so too do the tourist numbers, especially for all those who have relations or heritage in Ireland.

An example is Air Canada coming onto Dublin instead of Air Canada Rouge, says a lot about the attractiveness of the market. So I don't see a temporary stagnation coming soon...

There is so much talk about Brexit and nobody is fully sure about what will happen, though it is expected to be challenging, in tourism already Tourism Ireland will refocus on driving more tourism from other markets as they recognise that demands from various markets will change.

Don't you think there will be a limit to growth though? The population of the island is only 7 million so I can't imagine the growth is going to take the airport to, for example, 50 million passengers.

More than twice that of Dubai......

Dublin is not at a location that would promote massive volumes of connecting traffic. Sure you've got the Atlantic traffic but the geographic location is only marginally superior to the likes of LHR and AMS.

Dubai is situated between Europe and Asia. Quite the difference there.

Y

Is it? Who knew? Dublin is situated halfway between Dubai and the US, just as another statement of geographic fact.

The point I was making, and which you have reinforced, is that the population of the island, country, city etc that an airport serves often has no direct influence on the number of pax that the airport sees.

Yes it does, it's the most direct influence. When population is sizeable but not significant, this allows other things to build up, like the hub in DXB. The main advantage of the hub there is that you can transfer to Australia, New Zealand and alot of unserved Asia.

DUB probably first to market with US Preclearance and has certainly demonstrated a demand. Unfortunately growth and competitive advantage is lost due to airfield characteristics (capacity constraints, performance & resilience to mention a few) which have arisen due to poor planning.

UK Trafic
 

Only 30% of transit traffic is to/from the UK. In that 30% London Heathrow is by far the bussiest transit route followed by Edinburgh and Manchester.

Is much of that IAG (BA specifically) pax being moved onto EI flights due cancellations etc?

No.

If AA/BA cancel they are well able to accommodate the majority of passengers most days themselves and if EI cancel it dons't mean passengers will be routed via BA at LHR or with AA ex DUB.

EI normally have the capacity to self-accommodate passengers on cancelled services?

Not always but if they cancel a DUB/LHR service they will get all away on other flights. If they cancel a T/A service they will get as many onto other remaining flights and using partners in the US to get passengers to home.

Yes things are not prefect but saying growth is lost is mad considering transit is up 50%. T/A traffic is up by almost 270,000 on first half of 2016 with July expected to pass 400,000 in a single month.

Nobody is considering the effect Brexit will have on TA flights.

EU/US agreements become void for UK when UK no longer in EU.

In addition as MOL pointed out what happens to inter UK/UK flights from March 2019.......... UK/Ireland have a pre existing agreement so not affected.

However with LHR transit passengers from EU there is a complete different set of circumstances and that will offer opportunities.