flyBE A319 deal imminent?
 

A funny thing happened on PPRUNE yesterday.

Someone posted a copy of an article by Jim French which had appeared a couple of days ago in ABTN and (in a slightly longer form) on the flyBE web site. It was about how the industry had developed, his vision for the future, etc. - all quite interesting stuff. (Thread title was "flyBE and its vision" or something similar.) But there was one sentence in the version posted here which differed from the published version.

Paragraph from published version (from flyBE website):
Same paragraph from version posted on PPRUNE (approximately):
I say "approximately" because the sentence in bold above (my emphasis) is from memory - I posted a message yesterday highlighting this A319 comment and asking whether it meant that flyBE's choice of A319s was official now, and the whole thread was promptly deleted (I assume by the original poster, as is their right).

This could imply that flyBE's original intention was to have an A319 deal public by the time the article was published last weekend, and hence that a draft version of the article (I'm assuming that the version posted here yesterday was a draft) included a reference to the aircraft. But that would suggest that the decision regarding aircraft choice has been made.

There's a second possibility, of course: the version posted here was a fake, with an unofficial sentence about A319s added into Jim French's original article by someone else and meant as some sort of inside joke.

Thoughts? Comments? Or did I dream the whole thing? :)

C. (intrigued)

No you didn't dream it, I too posted on the same thread.

Wondered where it had gone!

I note that the WHOLE paragraph does not appear in the ABTN version. Someone has been busy with the snips! Or else ,as you say,it was added by the original poster.

How life at BE would be different if BAE hadn't pulled the plug on the RJX? Would the aircraft have provided the added range and performance that was needed and how much did the BE receive in compensation when BAE chopped the project?

I guess that's all in the past, so where are they going now - they've created a niche for themselves with their Q400s operating on a number of routes, but they are now trying to get into the big boys world with 150 seaters and trying it out at BHX - home to more LCCs than most other places. So is it a good strategy to try to do it? Or are they positioning themselves for a buyout?

It looks as though their strategy commits them to running two sizes of aircraft.

Many of the routes from the smaller regional airports would not support a 319 size a/c and conversely some of their sun routes especially need something around that size.

Now they consider themselves a lowcost airline are they stretching the concept too far, or will they turn out to be ground breakers in that such a two diverse aircraft policy will work, or, as the last poster has asked, are they setting themselves up for a sale?

And if they were bought out is it likely any buyer would continue Flybe's strategy? Possibly a management buyout might but how likely is that?

As always, I pose these questions in the spirit of trying to learn from those who know more about these things than me.

I hope Flybe (in whatever guise) continues its regional route development because it brings a decent network to the likes of the far southwest and East Anglia, places that probably would not be looked at by the 'traditional' low cost carriers, if such a genre as been in existence long enough to form a tradition.

I understand that JF is looking at a 3 type fleet: Q400s, 112 seaters to replace the 146s (perhaps the proposed Bombardier C-110?) and 150 seaters.

The fleet is likely to consist of the Q400, the Avro RJ100 and either the 737-700 or Airbus A319.

Regards

Mike

Cyrano - The topic was started by Hudson Bay, who very shortly afterwards admitted that he'd added the bit about A319s himself. As you suggest, he's obviously deleted his original post, so the whole topic has gone. All I can say is JF has promised a decision on 150 seat jets by the end of the winter schedule in March.

Hudson Bay does tend to post regularly on flybe topics and gives the impression that they work (or have worked) for flybe, but some of the information (even basic info available to any flybe staff member) is often wrong, so I'm not sure.

"The fleet is likely to consist of the Q400, the Avro RJ100 and either the 737-700 or Airbus A319."

Don't think flybe need to look far beyond T1 at BHX for any RJ100s they may need!!

IMHO it'll be a long time before Flybe "acquires" any 150 seat a/c. The 3 B733's at BHX and EXT are damp leased from Astraeus, and until this experiment is proved to work then Flybe will be sticking to the Q400's and the RJ's. So maybe B733 or A319 for 2006, but not earlier.

Flybe 319's

wonder what the pay scale will be !

they will have no chance of importing some quality experience on type unless they up the scales around 30% .

i know they have a few guys in training dept who have flown it before , well at least one .

Couldnt agree more with Snigs , dont hold your breath guys , not sure it isnt a mistake full stop . Flybe have skilfully carved out a profitable llttle niche from almost certain bankruptcy a few year' s ago. If they go 150 seat now then they are competing with some very tough and well resourced competition.

its one thing running about with 65 - 70 % load factor on a Q400 , a different story doing it in 150 seat jet .

NF

flybe.com:

Thanks for this - now I understand! :rolleyes:

I think that flyBE's use of Q400s has allowed them to carve out a very solid niche (and I could imagine them using the aircraft to establish bases outside the UK, a la Ryanair/Easyjet) but I find it harder to see what their "unique selling point" is once they move into the 150-seat segment. Clearly there are routes (e.g. southern Spain) which stretch the 146's performance, but those longer routes are also the competitive arena for pretty much every 150-180 seat no-frills carrier around. What would differentiate flyBE in this market up against the easy/Ryan/baby/Jet2/ MyTravelLite/Monarch herd?

And yet JF has promised a decision on 150-seat aircraft by March, i.e. before the results of this summer's trial with leased-in 737s are known. I tend to agree with Snigs that waiting a year would make some sense. Unless, of course, either:
(a) "we have several candidate routes/regions for 150-seaters, and UK-Spain is not the only one, but it's the easiest to trial without tipping our hand, and even if it doesn't perform well we will be able to find other places to put 150-seaters."
or
(b) "The Walker Trust want out, so we have to bring the company to market, but at the same time maximise the price we get. And ordering 150-seaters will really position us as a player - plus it'll make the big boys like Easy sit up and wonder if they should be buying us to remove a threat."

Maybe I'll just go and doctor someone else's press releases to make those points...
;)

Just because the management are going to come to a decision on an aircraft type soon, it doesn't mean that they have to place any orders yet!

Why is it necessary for an airline to have just one type of market? Flybe have seen route oportunities and have snapped them up, they need suitable aircraft to operate these differing types of routes.

I don't think the management play pin the tail on the donkey when it comes to something this big.

:rolleyes:

Trislander,

Or, they could announce a decision and say that thy have resolved NOT to order any A319s, or 737s.

The market in the Midlands is already competitive, especially on the sunshine routes. We have baby and MON moving in on BHX, and TOM at CVT, not to mention EZ, WW, and a small FR operation at EMA, with DSA also serving the northeast Mids.

I would not yet say that we are saturated here - there are still plenty of cities which could be served from the Midlands, saving us that painful journey down to London. BER, INV (at "reasonable" prices), ABZ / DND (ditto), NQY, OSL, HEL, LIS, BIO, and BUD would be markets where I would imagine there would be demand. Some of these are well within Flybe's capabilities using existing stock, but I doubt that those which aren't would support the use of a 737 / A319 anyway, except perhaps LIS.

I also don't see any logic in being a "me-too" player in the 150 seat market, just to be appealing for a possible takeover, especially as they would be adding an untested complication to their forecasts, against the proven track record they have in serving regional domestic markets, short hops to France, and a few routes to Spain from the smaller airports.

There must be hundreds of airports in Europe which are ripe to be opened up by an efficient turboprop operator, but which either don't have the runway length, or are not prepared to offer a sufficiently sweet deal, to attract the likes of FR.

Compared to the 150 seat operators, they can also either offer daily flights instead of the 3-4 per week, which is common with airlines such as WW, TOM etc. On higher volume routes, such as BHX to EDI, they can also outperform their rivals by offering more frequency, and therefore capturing more of the high yield business market.

If they must diversify their fleet (does anyone know the costs per seat mile of a 146 / RJ100, compared to a Q400?), wouldn't an efficient regional jet be the answer - again, not sure of the economics of something like the Embraer 190, but if they are good enough for Jet Blue, would they be good enough for BE?

Surely they would be much more attractive if they stuck to what they did best, especially as they have few real competitors at this level, and left the 150 seat dog fight to the other players.

PS - have just taken a look at http://www.ruleof70to110.com, which gives an Embraer's sales pitch. The site quotes a range of 2,200 nm for the E190, which would certainly make all of the above viable, and even bring in the possibility of destinations like KEF, CAI, MOW and IST. Compared to the Fokker 100 (used by Eu Jet?), the Embraer 195 offers 53% lower maintenance costs, as well as some seemingly attractive costs per seat mile compared to other a/c, but I'm sure the bean counters could read between the lines here. The lack of the Q400 on their comparisons was notable - but then again, it is not a jet, so perhaps they see that as a different market?

Well, the cat's out of the bag now, and whatever JF may or may not have said about A319s, looks like they have decided to carry on carving out their niche.

So all those markets which didn't quite seem large enough for a 737 / A319 from BHX, LPL, SOU etc, should now become possible again. I think we've seen enough of the sunshine routes, roll on BER, OSL, STO etc for proper budget competition.

Does anyone know how the new E195s will perform at the city airports? Would BE offer international flights from BHD, for example (is this possible). And both BER and STO have city airports, even if THF is hanging in there on a thread, and I don't think BMA does international yet.

well at least it looks a bit like a 319 (in much the same way as a Rover 75 looks like a Jag:\ ). In fairness, the 195 looks like a nice machine but give me an airbus any day. If Flybe were considering international routes from BHD they'd need to pull their finger out..while there's still some left. Easyjet and Jet2 are stitching the international market up nicely from BFS..with more to come.