Flybe-V2

[davidjohnson6]

Leeds-Heathrow is a bit of a special case of a route... and I would suggest a 1x daily is actually useful. It cannot possibly compete against the train from central Leeds to central London but, if it operates *reliably* (and yes, I have seen all the delay/cancel data), it can be useful for those flying between Yorkshire and north America as a self-connect

[biddedout]

Maybe this explains it. Up to 30% of slots at individual can be handed back temporarily without penalty.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g...ort-slots-rule

[BA318]

Originally Posted by biddedout

Maybe this explains it. Up to 30% of slots at individual can be handed back temporarily without penalty.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g...ort-slots-rule

now we just need an explanation for the bizarre pricing on 5-6 other routes…

very few people are going to be self connecting on Flybe at LHR especially in the current environment.

[toledoashley]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

Leeds-Heathrow is a bit of a special case of a route... and I would suggest a 1x daily is actually useful. It cannot possibly compete against the train from central Leeds to central London but, if it operates *reliably* (and yes, I have seen all the delay/cancel data), it can be useful for those flying between Yorkshire and north America as a self-connect

Given what is likely to be a summer of discontent on the railways, you would have thought a reliable LBA-LHR would do well in the circumstances.

[Asturias56]

yeah but strikes are likely to affect LHR as well

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by BA318

now we just need an explanation for the bizarre pricing on 5-6 other routes…

very few people are going to be self connecting on Flybe at LHR especially in the current environment.

Leaving aside, just for a moment, the chip that you among others have on their shoulders relating to Flybe it seems to me there is a fairly simple, if unpalatable reason for route cancellations, if indeed that is what is going on, which does appear likely.

Flybe are trying to operate a route network with too few airframes, which has already resulted in sub chartering to enable them to operate an acceptable level of service on the routes they are running now. Looking at Jethros Fleet List which I appreciate is not "official, but normally pretty accurate, Flybe ought to be taking delivery of three additional Dash 8s, none of which appear to be arriving any time soon at BHX. All the routes that "SeanM" has highlighted are yet to start, so it looks very much as though they have information internally as to the likely timescales for the eventual delivery of these three, and subsequent units and decided that, financially and from a customer service standpoint, delaying the start of these routes is infinitely preferable to throwing money into chartering yet more aircraft in, which is surely not budgeted for.

If this scenario was correct then its hardly a good omen, but better than killing the business with either extra costs, or tarnishing (some might say further tarnishing) the airline's reputation.

I am sure all will become clear in the new few days, possibly weeks.

[BA318]

Originally Posted by ATNotts

Leaving aside, just for a moment, the chip that you among others have on their shoulders relating to Flybe it seems to me there is a fairly simple, if unpalatable reason for route cancellations, if indeed that is what is going on, which does appear likely.

Flybe are trying to operate a route network with too few airframes, which has already resulted in sub chartering to enable them to operate an acceptable level of service on the routes they are running now. Looking at Jethros Fleet List which I appreciate is not "official, but normally pretty accurate, Flybe ought to be taking delivery of three additional Dash 8s, none of which appear to be arriving any time soon at BHX. All the routes that "SeanM" has highlighted are yet to start, so it looks very much as though they have information internally as to the likely timescales for the eventual delivery of these three, and subsequent units and decided that, financially and from a customer service standpoint, delaying the start of these routes is infinitely preferable to throwing money into chartering yet more aircraft in, which is surely not budgeted for.

If this scenario was correct then its hardly a good omen, but better than killing the business with either extra costs, or tarnishing (some might say further tarnishing) the airline's reputation.

I am sure all will become clear in the new few days, possibly weeks.

I have no chip on my shoulder regarding Flybe. It’s a valid topic for debate if an airline suddenly raises its base fare from Ł30 to Ł160.

There seems to be an idea that we can only discuss Flybe if it is praise for the carrier. There is also a group who feel the need to accuse anyone not full of praise for Flybe of either having a chip on their shoulder, some kind of competing interest or worse. It’s perfectly valid to disagree with their plans or how they do things and this is a valid forum for discussing that. It’d be a lot more civil if people just made their points rather than trying to construe a background or ulterior motive for each person’s view.

Don’t like a point? Ignore it or make your argument back without the need to play the man.

Flybe are in a tricky spot. Chartering more in costs money. Cancelling costs reputation however just raising the fare isn’t going to solve that issue. Either these flights are going to be cancelled and they should get on with it or they plan to operate (perhaps with charters if needed) but then are likely to be poorly loaded - especially when competing carriers are offering similarly timed flights for Ł30-50.

[ATNotts]

Don’t like a point? Ignore it or make your argument back without the need to play the man.

I wasn't playing the man, just there is, in some postings more than a small amount of schadenfreude when discussing the situation at Flybe, which I reckon with one or two exceptions posters have no inside info on, it pure conjecture - as indeed is my take above.

I don't believe that pointing out that whatever the cause this quote

If this scenario was correct then its hardly a good omen

from my post above is hardly a ringing endorsement of what appears to be happening within the business presently.

Your final paragraph is spot on the money; it will be very interesting to see, if we were ever to find out, how they are standing up on key routes, particularly BHX/BHD in terms of passenger number and yield. Culling routes that aren't performing needs to be ruthless, as they are with are with the like of Ryanair and EasyJet as well as the very much maligned Wizz.

[biddedout]

The effort and cost that went into trying to hang onto the remedy slots over the last two years suggests that they have no intention of giving up on them. This temporary alleviation gives them a bit of breathing space and it will be interesting to see where they re-appear in the winter schedule. I can imagine that the current east westish network is as much about managing crewing and engineering logistics as they get started. Immediate profit on all routes would be great, but probably isn't the immediate priority. Presumably the LBA night-stopping airframe is swapped with the BHD most mornings to minimise engineering costs as they build up BHD as an engineering hub. All clever cost management stuff but a bit nerve-wracking from an operational point of view with limited airframes. Ironically, these issues can provide short term opportunities such as using the leased in fixed price jet night-stopping in LBA to avoid paying additional hotac costs for BHX crew and engineering support. I can't imagine the ATR being used into LHR.

[SWBKCB]

Ironically, these issues can provide short term opportunities such as using the leased in fixed price jet night-stopping in LBA to avoid paying additional hotac costs

It's been night-stopping in Belfast?

[Wycombe]

I can't imagine the ATR being used into LHR.

It has been at least twice over the last few days

[jamestkirk]

Unfortunately we won’t know until a trading statement is released or we look at the company accounts. Which will be circa late 2023.

[JobsaGoodun]

Originally Posted by jamestkirk

Unfortunately we won’t know until a trading statement is released or we look at the company accounts. Which will be circa late 2023.

As a private company, I think the likelihood of getting any trading or financial information is highly unlikely. The current owners have a history of saying very little publicly.

[davidjohnson6]

The accounts up to 31-Mar-2022 (ie just before flights launched in a serious way) are due at Companies House by 31-Dec-2022, and will likely appear on the web by early January. This will show the costs incurred in starting the airline and other interesting info. If you want to see *reliable* operating financial data, then expect to wait another 18 months
If you have access, RDC Apex should give good estimates
Otherwise, CAA data is all there is in the public domain

[CaptainActor]

Yes, agree with you and JTK. The 18 months will be an interesting read on companies house.

[Wycombe]

now we just need an explanation for the bizarre pricing on 5-6 other routes?

Elsewhere on social media, a contact from within BEE is reporting "we are making a lot of schedule adjustments this Summer. Fares will be back down soon"

Meanwhile, Emerald have announced BHD to CWL and SOU (a route BEE also intend to introduce in late July) starting in a couple of weeks

[cavokblues]

All removed from sale, apparently, according to SeanM on Twitter

Belfast City - East Midlands
Belfast City - Edinburgh (2 of 3 daily)
Belfast City - Glasgow (1 of 3 daily)

Twitter

[bean]

Non proffesional speculation network

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by bean

Non proffesional speculation network

But generally quite accurate for all that.

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by cavokblues

All removed from sale, apparently, according to SeanM on Twitter

Belfast City - East Midlands
Belfast City - Edinburgh (2 of 3 daily)
Belfast City - Glasgow (1 of 3 daily)

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status...96803032256512

To be fair to Sean M, he says the flights have been removed from Google fights - not that they have been removed from sale altogether. Still available on the Flybe website, albeit at a high price.