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Cork-7

Old 7th Oct 2021, 15:03
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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runaway edge

Agreed. Outside of the London-centric buoyant business traffic and general population levels which can support both business and leisure routes/fares, there wasn't much choice. EIR had managed to take a share of the regional routes but much of the traffic was in fact VFR - we had no choice. FR were busy elsewhere. The world has changed - everyone will be scrabbling for the few pennies being thrown for a while and, love them or loathe them, FR have consistently shown that they can adapt and react quickly wherever there is a few bob to be made. Traditional business planning of "of course the business people will come back to us with our daily frequencies and very high return fares" will result in a lot of fresh air blowing through terminals as half empty aircraft take off for the last time on a terminated route. Business people don't need to travel so often or return the same day (Zoom it if its that important) and x3 a week is enough. We shall see - be interesting to see what it looks like late Spring 22 onwards.
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Old 7th Oct 2021, 22:48
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Aer Lingus completely dropped the ball with Stobart in using them in conectivity etc. When Stobard ceased trading there seemed to be an eternity before Aer Lingus started the ball rolling in a replacement! I even think if Loganair could have got hold of more airframes/crew they would have cleaned up!
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Old 8th Oct 2021, 09:33
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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What do you suggest they had done? Emerald was already lined up as the replacement operator but wasn’t due to start until 2023, the contract was signed pretty rapidly within about 4-6 weeks of the collapse and they’ve been working to bring operations forward ever since.

At Belfast City, arguably the best performing base during the pandemic but most at risk of new competition, regional flying was carved up between Aer Lingus Mainline and BA CityFlyer to keep it in IAG hands. Aer Lingus also took on the core Scottish routes from Dublin.

There’s no way they could have magicked up a new regional operator in the immediate aftermath of Stobart’s collapse. You can’t exactly invite an established carrier for some “temporary” work with all the financial risk that entails and then hope they quietly move aside once Emerald is ready. You also can’t bunch together a few regional aircraft, even if there’s plenty sitting around, and operate them yourselves without months of massive investment and training which will be rendered useless by the time it’s completed because your readymade franchise operator will be available by then anyway.

Options were limited.
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 11:35
  #24 (permalink)  
840
 
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Good news and bad news.

The bad news is that Aer Lingus have announced their programme for next summer and it just contains Heathrow, Amsterdam , Dubrovnik, Faro, Lanzarote, Malaga and Palma. Most notable is that Paris is not there, but also Barcelona, Lisbon, Tenerife and Alicante are gone (plus a couple [Munich and Nice] that were announced pre-Covid, but never operated). Paris is perhaps a lot more marginal than the cash cow it was, with Air France going 2x daily to CDG and Vueling 2x weekly to Orly. The Barcelona area and Tenerife will still have Ryanair service.

The good news is that Ryanair will go 2x daily to Manchester. That is a major capacity increase and a useful frequency. The only downside is that there won't be hub connections, but Manchester was always the least used of the hub options from Cork anyway.
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 11:57
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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840,
Good summary of EI S22 ex Cork.
There is no case for EI Regional to return to the airport now. Birmingham and Manchester were the backbone of the operation by Stobart. And AFKLM schedules ensure Paris is not sustainable with a 320 and let's see how long AMS is maintained. Hopefully VY will pick up some of the traffic on ORY.

​​​​​​
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Old 29th Oct 2021, 12:47
  #26 (permalink)  
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I think Amsterdam is a case of seeing what happens. KLM are only offering 125K seats per year (and you can probably reduce that to 100K useful seats considering there are plenty with low demand e.g. an early flight on a Tuesday morning in November). There's also very little room for KLM to expand considering restrictions in Amsterdam; they would effectively have to cancel another route first and while there are routes like Brussels, Dusseldorf or Hanover that are probably better served by train these days, Cork would be competing with every other worldwide destination for the slot. The AMS route has generally been used by 160K-180K passengers annually, so there is scope for a 1 x daily A320 service on top of what KLM are providing. The downside for Aer Lingus is that they would be picking up the low value point-to-point traffic, so margins may make other destinations more valuable.

I tend to agree with what you are saying about EI Regional. Looking at where EI Regional flew beyond what has been taken up by Ryanair

- Bristol - By far the most attractive of the options. There has always been a route to either Bristol or South Wales since the airport was founded. However, always at risk of Ryanair who have a base at either end.
- Glasgow - With Ryanair flights to Edinburgh likely to be much cheaper and with the two cities not that far apart, the route would struggle.
- Rennes - There has long been a flight to Brittany across multiple airport - Rennes, Brest, Nantes [using an archaic boundary for Brittany :-)] - across multiple operators and there are strong connections between Cork and NW France. With France actively reducing internal flights, a route from the area to Cork may be attractive to an operator with smaller aircraft.
- Newquay - Not much market for this. It's main raison d'etre was that it was a very short flight that could fit into what would otherwise be aircraft downtime

- Honourable mention for Sothampton, which was operating profitably until Stobart decided there was more money to be made operating extra flights to Birmingham. If EI Regional came back, it wold probably return.
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 11:11
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Well, FR have stolen a march on EI for the winter and Summer 2022, haven't they? Its a little bit sad to see the EI base down to just 2 320s for the Summer, from the peak of 4x A320s and 3x AT7s in 2019. I see that TUI are selling their own flights to Reus, Lanzarote and Palma, which might explain some of the Aer Lingus reductions to Spain.
It will be inserting to see what happens to numbers to Manchester, fares and capacity will be good with FR. The 2nd service of the day is arguably a bit early, departing MAN at 1600ish.

Overall the departure boards aren't looking too bad for Summer 2022. KL and AF will be twice daily to their respective hubs, LX are back to ZRH 4x weekly. While there is no sign of LH to FRA or I2 to MAD, Volotea will be operating Verona weekly as well.

Originally Posted by 840 View Post
I tend to agree with what you are saying about EI Regional. Looking at where EI Regional flew beyond what has been taken up by Ryanair
The best options for any rebirth of EIR at Cork would be BHX and GLA. FR are operating to BHX, but at 3x weekly timings and frequency aren't the best, so there might be some opportunity there. As you say GLA isn't directly served but the service to EDI does cover some of that market. Connections to the smaller UK cities is going to be problematic without some EIR presence. SOU, NQY, BRS, CWL, LBA, JER, NCL have all been served by EIR over the years, with various levels of success.
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 13:01
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry Brian, LH to Fra in 2022, has been loaded for some months now, 2 per week , same as this year
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 17:04
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Apologies - I hadn't seen it when I looked at April/May as it doest start at the start of the IATA Sumer season.
Just I2 to MAD missing right now, then.
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Old 4th Nov 2021, 12:02
  #30 (permalink)  
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Swiss are to operate a weekly flight to Geneva from December to March.

This is presumably just targeting skiers. It seems very last minute, but with no other ski routes planned this Winter season, they must have seen an opportunity.
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Old 5th Nov 2021, 01:50
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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As mentioned and looking at AL website summer 2022 seems light. For one I am looking forward to getting a bit of sun that ive missed for last two years. FAO looks like its only operating 3 days a week with AL with later flights on Tuesdays and Thursdays and midday on Sundays. I take it this will not change at all as schedule is back to 2008/09 levels with that little choice. Also will flight times stay as planned or are they subject to change. Great to see some of the recent announcements but looks like AL not investing heavily at all.
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Old 5th Nov 2021, 10:04
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
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840

I would think so and guess there is a block booking from Crystal or Topflight. We’ll might see more when it goes on sale today. Crystal are offering Salzburg from Cork on “other airline” with an 0600 departure from Cork.

EI usually release their summer schedule in stages. At the moment it looks like 2 aircraft and the major destinations launched in time for the runway opening. I’m hoping they might have more to announce around Christmas when the schedule is usually finalised. I suppose this is a funny year, on the plus side the runway is open, vaccination rates are high and we have the DCC, on the negative cases are rising.
Id be hopeful of a third A320 for EI next summer. But with CDG gone and KL twice daily to AMS a fair chunk of the old reliables are gone.

In other news a now deleted tweet said that Emerald will base one ATR at Cork from March. All evidence seems to be scrubbed from the Internet. Let’s hope that it does come to fruition and Cork can maintain decent links with cities other than LON and MAN.
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Old 22nd Nov 2021, 11:38
  #33 (permalink)  
840
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Back open again at last. Just the one Aer Lingus flight to Heathrow today, but Ryanair and KLM return to the boards tomorrow.

Considering this was a full reconstruction of the runway rather than a simple overlay, does anyone know if anything has been done to address the dip in the middle of it?

Last edited by 840; 22nd Nov 2021 at 11:38. Reason: It all came out bold unintentionally
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