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Southampton-3

Old 9th Nov 2022, 16:31
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How long will the runway extension take to do ? How long will it *really* take, allowing for the inevitable things to go wrong ?
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 16:44
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Originally Posted by RW20
​​​​​​TCAS FAN

It's becoming clearer that when the extension works will start is a lot later then expected. Surely the works would have been better being done winter 22/23 ,rather than as suggested by other contributors starting in April 23?
If this is the case then the extension will not provide any advantage to the airport to at least 2024,given that the work might not be complete to early Winter 2023.
The airport was cleared to go ahead with its plans in early August 2022,this seems a long time to completion. In addition to this the height restrictions on approach to 02 and take off 20 are yet to be resolved,and with the extinction rebellion chomping at the bit,will they?
It's a very unsatisfactory situation the the airport management should have resolved long ago
IMHO the main problem will be mitigating the impact on runway declared distances when excavations start. This is due to the requirement for a protected area (runway strip end-60M + RESA-90M) prior to runway threshold, and at the end of the TORA, to provide protection for a possible undershoot/overrun.

Runway 20 threshold is displaced by 45M, so any excavation work within 105M beyond the northern runway end would cause a further temporary displacement (rendering the 20 PAPIS and ILS Glideslope unusable) and reducing 20 LDA, in order to safeguard 150M undershoot requirement.

The 02 TORA ends at the northern runway end so any excavations will impact on the 02 TORA and 02 LDA.

AGS's cunning plan to work around strip end/RESA requirements should be revealed in the AIP Supplement.

Exceptionally the issue could be managed with little or no impact if most work is done outside airport operating hours (ie night) and the surface restored to an acceptable gradient prior to the airport re-opening. However, I suspect that such action would greatly escalate costs/ project length well beyond a tolerable level.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 17:12
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TCAS FAN
Another excellent explanation on the prospective developments.,a little disconcerting on the impact on the airports nav aids,and considering 2023 isn't going to be a good year for PAX, ( Bearing in mind the airport is running at a considerable lost) and again the late work starting time ( this is still up in the air) is going to be challenging to the airports financial status.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 17:05
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Maybe there will be some additional routes added for W22/23 schedule (from October) if runway work is starting in April next year!

Last edited by SKOJB; 12th Nov 2022 at 17:25.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 18:48
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SKOJB
what profitable routes could be added?
Certainly the Canary islands is out,given the distance it would have load restrictions.
I feel the extension offers Summer routes to the med to accomodate an upgrade to 320s status,but this is limited by demand ,given BOU have an established set up.
Certainly there should be no great expections on many new routes,given the financial outlook.
The extension when done( and it seems to be very long drawn out event) will offer max loads to existing operators in hot weather
Its tough times for regional airports,certainly with limited runway length,BOU are reaping the benifits of a fully usable runway for all Sun routes
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 22:52
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You need Baltic to open a base with their A220-300 fleet.
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Old 13th Nov 2022, 14:01
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Originally Posted by RW20
SKOJB
what profitable routes could be added?
Certainly the Canary islands is out,given the distance it would have load restrictions.
I feel the extension offers Summer routes to the med to accomodate an upgrade to 320s status,but this is limited by demand ,given BOU have an established set up.
Certainly there should be no great expections on many new routes,given the financial outlook.
The extension when done( and it seems to be very long drawn out event) will offer max loads to existing operators in hot weather
Its tough times for regional airports,certainly with limited runway length,BOU are reaping the benifits of a fully usable runway for all Sun routes
Your point around demand is surely just not true. There is most definitely enough demand in the area and If the right route/carrier can operate it, they will come without a doubt. Itís BOH who will need to be careful as any growth at SOU will undoubtedly take footfall away from them!
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Old 13th Nov 2022, 16:07
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Originally Posted by SKOJB
Itís BOH who will need to be careful as any growth at SOU will undoubtedly take footfall away from them!
If, for example, easyJet dip their toe into the Southampton market it would be interesting how Ryanair respond at Bournemouth if the operations are partly duplicated. Cheap flights to drive them out of town?
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Old 13th Nov 2022, 16:25
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Originally Posted by cavokblues
If, for example, easyJet dip their toe into the Southampton market it would be interesting how Ryanair respond at Bournemouth if the operations are partly duplicated. Cheap flights to drive them out of town?
Many people would pay a small premium not to fly RYR (of course in my humble opinion)
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Old 13th Nov 2022, 16:25
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Originally Posted by RW20
SKOJB
what profitable routes could be added?
Certainly the Canary islands is out,given the distance it would have load restrictions.
I feel the extension offers Summer routes to the med to accomodate an upgrade to 320s status,but this is limited by demand ,given BOU have an established set up.
Certainly there should be no great expections on many new routes,given the financial outlook.
The extension when done( and it seems to be very long drawn out event) will offer max loads to existing operators in hot weather
Its tough times for regional airports,certainly with limited runway length,BOU are reaping the benifits of a fully usable runway for all Sun routes
Why dismiss SOU/TFS? Did not EZY not operate SEN/TFS, and prior to the advent of the Neos?

I've previously speculated on SEN vs new superior SOU runway declared distances, so why dismiss the SOU/TFS possibility?
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Old 13th Nov 2022, 16:34
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Originally Posted by SKOJB
Many people would pay a small premium not to fly RYR (of course in my humble opinion)
I guess we will wait to see whether enough of them will!
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Old 14th Nov 2022, 03:16
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Originally Posted by Buster the Bear
You need Baltic to open a base with their A220-300 fleet.
Air Baltic have indeed made recent announcements about expansion plans for bases outside of their current Baltic States operations.

​​​​​​But Air Baltic would need to have a UK AOC to be able to set up a base at a UK airport.

​​​​​​With so many opportunities within the EU I can't see Air Baltic going through the process of obtaining a UK AOC especially with growth in the UK travel industry stagnating as we move forward.

If it were the case that Air Baltic obtained a UK AOC their A220s would be an ideal aircraft for Southampton.
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Old 14th Nov 2022, 09:34
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They wouldnít need a UK AOC to fly UK-EU flights. It would only be needed if they wanted to fly domestically or UK-third country ops.
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Old 18th Nov 2022, 12:05
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ACL S23 Report

ACL reports for S23 are out, some interesting requests in the SOU one: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...I0NWQwYjY3YiJ9

Usual caveat applies that these are requests only so may not actually happen. Frequencies roughly based on routes operating over the whole season (late March to late Oct).

Aer Lingus (Emerald)

- 26 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Aurigny

- 21 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

BA Cityflyer

- Less AGP and EGC flights
- New route to BLQ
- No IBZ/NCE/FLR (already known)
- 13 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Blue Islands

- 37 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Eastern Airways

- New route to BFS(!) - 12 weekly
- New route to ORK - 7 weekly
- Increase MAN to 23 weekly
- 49 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Flybe

- New route to ORY - 12 weekly
- MAN continues 12 weekly, GLA and EDI at 7 weekly
- 45 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

KLM Cityhopper

- 14 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

Loganair

- EDI and GLA increased (already known)
- NCL increased to 20 weekly
- 3 weekly route to 'SOU' - possible new route - IOM?
- 84 weekly departures in a peak week (w/c 07/08)

294 weekly departures on (w/c 07/08) compared to 200 weekly departures this year, so some good growth if most of these changes happen.
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Old 18th Nov 2022, 16:24
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Suggested on another thread that ORY slots were never obtained by BE, Paris is definitely required however. Decent growth indeed throughout S23 and with a smattering of new med/city break routes post extension, the airport will be well on its way to break even of 1.1m pax pa!
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 14:34
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what are the implications for the airport runway extension given that they have been refused today permission to fell trees in Marhill Copse?
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 15:48
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Originally Posted by RW20
TCAS FAN
what are the implications for the airport runway extension given that they have been refused today permission to fell trees in Marhill Copse?
Not being a performance specialist I cannot precisely quantify the impact on take-off weights. That said I can only make the observation that when the E145s first started operating a number of the trees were in such proximity to the end of the TORA that they were too close to be able to make the 15 degree turn to take advantage of the far better obstacle environment that this provided. A figure of up to 3 tonnes penalty was mentioned. This situation may well be currently the case with other turbo-jet ops.

When the extension is completed, as the commencement of TORA will be farther from the trees it may possibly be sufficient to permit execution of the 15 degree turn, thereby removing, the weight penalty.

Hopefully a worst case scenario of an extension without tree reduction has already been considered by AGS, and discussed with prospective future aircraft operators, during formulation of the business case to fund the extension.

An extension plus tree reduction was always the ideal scenario, time will tell when we see what additional routes are generated on completion of just the extension.
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 16:07
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Marlhill Copse is for another day, extension remains the big priority!
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Old 30th Nov 2022, 18:45
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Thank you TCAS FAN

Lets hope that without the tree lopping there will still be an attraction for airlines to Summer routes.
However it seems that the extension is becoming a long drawn out affair with possible penalties on take off still effective
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 00:59
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Have Flybe cancelled Avignon and Toulon for summer 2023?

A shame if they have done.

With so many French destinations that were previously served from Southampton before the collapse of Flybe (mark I) and the pandemic it's a pity that most are still unserved.

So we have Eastern Airways who previously announced Nantes and Rennes but never got around to serving either and now possibly Flybe abandoning Avignon and Toulon after only operating to those destinations for just a few weeks in peak summer 2022.

I'm still surprised that Air France haven't got around to announcing Paris CDG. I know many of you might think otherwise especially with KLM serving Amsterdam. With Air France having spare capacity with the recent abandonment of several domestic routes I would have expected an announcement by now.

I would much prefer to see Air France resume Paris CDG rather than the possibility of Flybe to Paris ORY.
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