Jet2-6
Some weeks ago now, when there was a discussion was ongoing about flights to ski destinations I recall posting that you would have to be daft to book flights this winter and being roundly lambasted for it. Not wishing to blow my own trumpet, but it doesn't sound so daft now does it?
I, like HH6702, I wouldn't be booking anything before the start of the main summer season in May; it may well be that things get going before then, and if they do, and the covid situation is clearly on a sustained trajectory of improvement then booking at short notice may the best we can hope for.
What really worries me is how businesses such as Jet2, without large government loans, such as TUI has received from the German government, are going to survive, and if they do in what kind of shape and size. After all by Easter it will have been a full 12 months without anything approaching a normal revenue stream, and furloughs notwithstanding, still some pretty big overheads to finance.
I, like HH6702, I wouldn't be booking anything before the start of the main summer season in May; it may well be that things get going before then, and if they do, and the covid situation is clearly on a sustained trajectory of improvement then booking at short notice may the best we can hope for.
What really worries me is how businesses such as Jet2, without large government loans, such as TUI has received from the German government, are going to survive, and if they do in what kind of shape and size. After all by Easter it will have been a full 12 months without anything approaching a normal revenue stream, and furloughs notwithstanding, still some pretty big overheads to finance.
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Jet2 have a £300m drawdown facility that they haven't yet had to access. TUI have indeed been fortunate to receive German government grants and loans to the tune of several billion dollars. They've also just raised over half a billion through a share offer.
I'm sure Jet2 will look to raise further funds as and when they need to, but the fact they're not at that stage yet highlights the differences in the business models of the two companies. Business such as Jet2 also focus on a more assured income - the bog-standard summer holiday in the Med. They're fortunate to not have expensive assets tied up in market segments that will be slower to recover.
For both companies, the demand is there. It's just a case of riding out the lack of forward bookings until the consumer has confidence to put some money down.
I'm sure Jet2 will look to raise further funds as and when they need to, but the fact they're not at that stage yet highlights the differences in the business models of the two companies. Business such as Jet2 also focus on a more assured income - the bog-standard summer holiday in the Med. They're fortunate to not have expensive assets tied up in market segments that will be slower to recover.
For both companies, the demand is there. It's just a case of riding out the lack of forward bookings until the consumer has confidence to put some money down.
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Add into that they sold of Dart Logistics at nearly £100m last year, and raised capital through more shares raising £172 million ... I'm pretty confident. They could probably raise the same amount if not more by again releasing more shares.
And who, pray, is going to buy new shares in an airline / tour operator that cannot, with any certainty tell them when they are going to be back in business. I've heard of "speculate to accumulate" and I am not a risk taker with my hard earned money. But there is another adage, "don't invest money you can't afford to lose".
I'm not for a moment fingering Jet2 as a travel business in particular peril, all businesses in this sector must be on quite shaky ground - unless government's have shelled out loans a la Germany and TUI.
I'm not for a moment fingering Jet2 as a travel business in particular peril, all businesses in this sector must be on quite shaky ground - unless government's have shelled out loans a la Germany and TUI.
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IAG and easyJet have just agreed some big loans, and TUI have just raised half a billion through a share issue haven’t they?
I think Jet2 will probably have to do the same eventually, but the fact they haven’t yet might point to them being more attractive to the banks and share purchasers?
I guess we’ll see anyway. If we get to the point where deaths haven’t come down by summer, then that means the vaccine hasn’t worked. And if the vaccine hasn’t worked then the entire country will reopen for business as there’s nothing else we can do, apart from wearing masks, keeping a distance, and washing hands regularly.
I think Jet2 will probably have to do the same eventually, but the fact they haven’t yet might point to them being more attractive to the banks and share purchasers?
I guess we’ll see anyway. If we get to the point where deaths haven’t come down by summer, then that means the vaccine hasn’t worked. And if the vaccine hasn’t worked then the entire country will reopen for business as there’s nothing else we can do, apart from wearing masks, keeping a distance, and washing hands regularly.
That is a scenario that doesn't bear thinking about.
Vokes55
Just because British citizens have been vaccinated does not mean they will be able to travel. There is little evidence yet to suggest a vaccinated person cannot catch covid and transmit it to other people. The only evidence is that the majority will not suffer badly. Given the low levels of vaccinations around Europe, No Nation will want to risk their population with further seeding of the new more contagious variant. So cancelling 10 weeks out seems like a good plan. If corridors do open up flights will be on sale sharpish.
Just because British citizens have been vaccinated does not mean they will be able to travel. There is little evidence yet to suggest a vaccinated person cannot catch covid and transmit it to other people. The only evidence is that the majority will not suffer badly. Given the low levels of vaccinations around Europe, No Nation will want to risk their population with further seeding of the new more contagious variant. So cancelling 10 weeks out seems like a good plan. If corridors do open up flights will be on sale sharpish.
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2Planks
Isreal - the world is watching them. And so far they've reported infections are on the downward trend as are hospitalisations and fatalities. Numbers to be released soon. So yes there is evidence that vaccination is working. Just our very arrogant Health Sectary will refuse to look at it.
As for the Variant .. all viruses mutate. And the Scientists have already said it maybe we have a yearly jab for the high risk groups and top the healthy population up bi or tri annually. As for the "contagious" of said variant - I don't believe a word of that. It's the MSM and Government propaganda at work.
I do agree however that cancelling out till end of March is very good business. Also allows them to take advantage of the furlough scheme for a good chunk of staff out until then. Or maybe bit before then.
Isreal - the world is watching them. And so far they've reported infections are on the downward trend as are hospitalisations and fatalities. Numbers to be released soon. So yes there is evidence that vaccination is working. Just our very arrogant Health Sectary will refuse to look at it.
As for the Variant .. all viruses mutate. And the Scientists have already said it maybe we have a yearly jab for the high risk groups and top the healthy population up bi or tri annually. As for the "contagious" of said variant - I don't believe a word of that. It's the MSM and Government propaganda at work.
I do agree however that cancelling out till end of March is very good business. Also allows them to take advantage of the furlough scheme for a good chunk of staff out until then. Or maybe bit before then.
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You are aware that any airline can put their entire staff on furlough and unfurlough them at 24 hours notice for as little as one day, right? Do you think every airline that hasn’t cancelled flights 10 weeks in advance doesn’t have staff on furlough?
You would say it’s good business. Unfortunately it’s not good business, except for the other companies that’ll be hoovering up the business of those passengers who have leave booked in March and want a holiday, and are willing to take the chance that their holiday may be cancelled and they may have to get another refund closer to the time.
I have a flight booked for March 2nd, and have every intention of taking it. If the airline cancelled it now, 7 weeks in advance, I’d be rebooking with another airline almost instantly. Just because a few people on here believe “nobody is booking anything”, does mean it’s true.
Cancelling all flights and holidays 10 weeks in advance is daft, and I’ve yet to see an argument that says otherwise.
You would say it’s good business. Unfortunately it’s not good business, except for the other companies that’ll be hoovering up the business of those passengers who have leave booked in March and want a holiday, and are willing to take the chance that their holiday may be cancelled and they may have to get another refund closer to the time.
I have a flight booked for March 2nd, and have every intention of taking it. If the airline cancelled it now, 7 weeks in advance, I’d be rebooking with another airline almost instantly. Just because a few people on here believe “nobody is booking anything”, does mean it’s true.
Cancelling all flights and holidays 10 weeks in advance is daft, and I’ve yet to see an argument that says otherwise.
If the airline cancelled it now, 7 weeks in advance, I’d be rebooking with another airline almost instantly. Just because a few people on here believe “nobody is booking anything”, does mean it’s true.
NONE of those 49 booked flights worked out for me. Two of the flights (MAN-KIR-MAN) went ahead as planned, but quarantine rules in Ireland meant that I was barred from travelling. Ryanair kept the money. The other 47 flights were unusable, either because they were cancelled outright or because some sectors within a multi-stop itinerary were cancelled. I did make four flights during the Summer - two rebooked return trips at short notice using voucher redemptions. EasyJet MAN-BFS-MAN went ahead at the third rebooking attempt. Beyond airlines, I also lost three booked cruises. One is in the hands of ABTA because the cruiseline went into liquidation - endless paperwork for that one, and told to expect six months wait time for reimbursement. One cancelled voyage to be refunded (still waiting). One rebooked to a year later but now unlikely to go ahead anyway. Two of my airline claims are still ongoing, including the lamentable Air Europa who have yet to refund a flight from April 2020 and claim they 'can't do anything' on the rare occasions they deign to answer the phone at all. There will be no new business put their way by me. Some other carriers genuinely did their best to be helpful - I'll remember that. My future business will favour them.
Now, I don't write any of that for the sake of complaining. Frustrating though they are, these are the very definition of 'first world problems'. I see people who have lost someone close to them because of this virus, or who have been ill themselves. I see others made redundant, furloughed, indebted, depressed, despairing. Especially within this industry. And I remind myself constantly how fortunate I am to enjoy reasonable health and financial security. I'm fine and busy in my own space until circumstances change. BUT ... why on Earth would I even begin to contemplate booking another bunch of flights to countries which very likely won't allow me in at all, and if they do I'll need a C-19 test certificate arranged at great hassle and expense very close to departure? Then possibly a repeat performance before flying back to the UK. And then I could be required to quarantine as well upon return. All in the hope of visiting a destination where everything is closed and one is required to be masked-up 24/7 (if allowed out and about at all)? No - the only new bookings I'll be making are those redeploying vouchers which would otherwise expire worthless. And I'll use those for flights as far into the future as are available for booking.
My real plan for S2021 is to wait for certainty. When a destination is reliably opened up for travel without off-the-scale red tape, then I will book to fly there at very short notice. Attempting to beat Grant Shapps' 'travel corridor hokey-kokey' again. Yes, that risks a higher price-point, but the downside of the alternatives makes the supplement worthwhile for me. I place a high value on my time, and all those hours wasted chasing refunds won't come back. If those short-notice flights are crazy-expensive, then I'll just pass on them anyway. It looks like my first few trips will have to be within the UK - maybe just within England only at this rate - and that is fine if so. My New Year's resolution is to avoid setting myself up for more avoidable soul-destroying admin paper chases.
I would suggest that there are many more folks out there thinking as I do. The only reasons I can think of for booking discretionary leisure flights in this climate is to redeem expiring travel vouchers or to secure very specific high-demand travel dates due to individual circumstances. Travel companies and airlines such as Jet2 are quite right to hunker down and conserve cash through this period of uncertainty. To answer the point made in the original quote, I'm not saying that nobody is booking anything. But I am saying that very few are - and why would they? Which means that most new bookings for our airlines are voucher redeployments which bring in no new cash. And in most cases, the airlines are having to allow date-changes for free to secure even that business.
Anyone who believes that the airlines should just carry on flying fresh air regardless is in fantasyland. They must conserve cash above all. It is survival mode out there. I think H1/2021 is a total write-off already. The populations of Continental Europe (amongst others) won't be sufficiently vaccinated to allow 'normality' to resume for many months yet. And I write that with a very heavy heart.
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Maybe if you had someone in the middle of this in the health service, as I have and you see the impact on them handling all of this, you would worry less about not being able to book a few weeks in advance. There are some things in life more important and some that can wait.
True Blue - I have more than one family member in the middle of this in the NHS or equivalent (two working in A&E - though one of those in Australia), and I agree with your sentiment concerning the tough conditions they face. Hence my comment about flight booking concerns being the very definition of first world problems. But this is an Airlines and Airports forum. This is the place where it is legitimate to discuss forward business prospects for airlines and airports, and to contemplate when normal booking patterns may return. It is in no way disrespectful to the NHS to discuss these matters. Good folks employed by Jet2 and carriers like them are also very dedicated to their work, as are their airport colleagues. We do not have to disapprove of discussing issues affecting the travel and aviation sectors in an airline forum in order to demonstrate our support for NHS staff.
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I think the question of not letting UK citizens in for Summer '21 will differ depending on the destination. For example, I think the Canaries will open up as soon as they can with a thorough testing program as mitigation. I don't think the Spanish government nor Brussels will be throwing sufficient support money at autonomous regions or EU countries who heavily depend on tourism. And for those places, there's no point having a lockdown if your citizens end up on the streets rioting against poverty, and also damaging your reputation as a tourist hub.
The key bit is all countries getting those at risk of death or serious illness vaccinated, repeated at regular intervals as necessary. Once the death rate and hospitalisation rate drops, the number of cases / contagiousness becomes irrelevant.
The key bit is all countries getting those at risk of death or serious illness vaccinated, repeated at regular intervals as necessary. Once the death rate and hospitalisation rate drops, the number of cases / contagiousness becomes irrelevant.
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Easyjet cancelling all holidays until March...
