Manchester-3
Reading in an Irish forum that the LR is returning to DUB next year to launch DUB-BUF. MAN will have 2 x based A330s. Many speculating it will be the 2 remaining A332s stored since the pandemic (EI-DAA & EI-DUO) which EI have confirmed are being reactivated this winter. This is potentially due to the delays in delivery of the 321XLRs next year.
But yes, worst kept secret at the airport, prepare for long tech delays. 😁
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The A330-200’s have not been touched for nearly 3 years and would need a significant amount of works to bring them upto an airworthy standard. They also require cabin refits and wi-fi instillation. There was also another A330-200 acquired before the pandemic ex-QR that was painted in EI colours but never entered service. There’s also speculation that EI are trying to source other G.E powered A330’s for lease.
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Been no official announcements as far as I know , other than a general understanding that United are intending to return at some point and with the right aircraft.
And that gleaned primarily from essence of the press statements back in the winter, and prior the COVID19 recovery strategy .
Specifically Manchester and Glasgow would not return in 2022 - (read NOT never return - a tautology! )
The Max fleet aren’t for crossing the Atlantic whilst the 321LR (XLR) frames that are planned to replace the 757 aren’t expected untill 2024 believe .
And I just don’t see United deploying a premium heavy 763 or 788 as a temporary measure next summer to be honest ( and certainly not if the combined effects of inflation and the deep recession that are expected, go on to knock out significant amounts of discretionary spending - fundamental to serving Manchester in particular)
I might be wrong however for me June 2024 seems the earliest restoration date right now .
I also think Edinburgh may well see some consolidation over the winter period, and that whilst the current plans indicate Washington, Chicago and Newark having an extended operation at the moment, at least one may well be cut back just as has happened this summer .
I seriously expect massive softening in the UK outbound travel markets in the coming months.
And that gleaned primarily from essence of the press statements back in the winter, and prior the COVID19 recovery strategy .
Specifically Manchester and Glasgow would not return in 2022 - (read NOT never return - a tautology! )
The Max fleet aren’t for crossing the Atlantic whilst the 321LR (XLR) frames that are planned to replace the 757 aren’t expected untill 2024 believe .
And I just don’t see United deploying a premium heavy 763 or 788 as a temporary measure next summer to be honest ( and certainly not if the combined effects of inflation and the deep recession that are expected, go on to knock out significant amounts of discretionary spending - fundamental to serving Manchester in particular)
I might be wrong however for me June 2024 seems the earliest restoration date right now .
I also think Edinburgh may well see some consolidation over the winter period, and that whilst the current plans indicate Washington, Chicago and Newark having an extended operation at the moment, at least one may well be cut back just as has happened this summer .
I seriously expect massive softening in the UK outbound travel markets in the coming months.
The A330-200’s have not been touched for nearly 3 years and would need a significant amount of works to bring them upto an airworthy standard. They also require cabin refits and wi-fi instillation. There was also another A330-200 acquired before the pandemic ex-QR that was painted in EI colours but never entered service. There’s also speculation that EI are trying to source other G.E powered A330’s for lease.
BOS is apparently still intended to be launched once the XLRs start arriving, freeing up LRs in DUB.
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As per my comments about United, I am deeply concerned about the gloomy economic prospects coming ourway in summer 2023, and frankly think Trans Atlantic expansion of any significant kind would be madness for all carriers !
After June 2023 just two seasons away, June 2024 is the next obvious point in the cycle .
To be honest Boston seems a pretty weak market from the North West, and isn’t exactly a large hub and spoke centre ( to drive some infill in the back of the bus) either.
Indeed when it come to economic drivers of long haul in particular, both airports can be seen to have some comparable drivers:
VFR ,international students, pharmaceutical industries combined with a healthy dose of outbound tourism.
Hubbing transfers aren’t among them, and it’s therefore primarily point to point traffic generated locally.
Both have some regional commuter/ essential island traffic in the mix, however at neither airport do these make a significant impact for onward connections.
At both airports these connections can be seen to be niche carriers in the main, rather than major network operators.
Other than Japan and Korea from Boston, and Bangladesh and Ethiopia from Manchester the profiles are remarkable similar ( even same Hainan Chinese presence!)
Indeed Manchester has the edge when it comes to the Middle East ( and onwards to the myriad Indian cities) by a country mile ,whilst Boston wins within the Americas
That VFR traffic again .
Neither manages a direct Delhi service for some reason I don’t quite understand given the university /tech industries similarities ( Both cities have major scientific universities, certainly liked by the Chinese rather less by Indians and I don’t know why, its just a little strange through)
Actually not really many computer science Indian students are enticed by rather easier and sponsored opportunities in the California and Washington State’s . Very specific courses in the main not so much physics and genuine scientific research ( generalisations acknowledged!)
From a Manchester -US perspective, and when the economic clouds divide the region desperately needs to recover a West Coast service imho.
With the death of TCX in the UK, future significant restoration/expansion is likely down to VS/DL in my view. Those 339s ordered gotta fly somewhere, however again thats post 2024 and beyond territory.
As for JetBlue I think their intentions beyond access to London remain be seen .
They have certainly been a prime beneficiary of the unexpected slot releases in the south east produced post COVID19, and this may have impacted some of their other plans in the immediacy.
Suffice to say prior summer 2024 just doesn’t seem to work for Boston imho.
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Delta/Virgin or JetBlue ?
As per my comments about United, I am deeply concerned about the gloomy economic prospects coming ourway in summer 2023, and frankly think Trans Atlantic expansion of any significant kind would be madness for all carriers !
After June 2023 just two seasons away, June 2024 is the next obvious point in the cycle .
To be honest Boston seems a pretty weak market from the North West, and isn’t exactly a large hub and spoke centre ( to drive some infill in the back of the bus) either.
Indeed when it come to economic drivers of long haul in particular, both airports can be seen to have some comparable drivers:
VFR ,international students, pharmaceutical industries combined with a healthy dose of outbound tourism.
Hubbing transfers aren’t among them, and it’s therefore primarily point to point traffic generated locally.
Both have some regional commuter/ essential island traffic in the mix, however at neither airport do these make a significant impact for onward connections.
At both airports these connections can be seen to be niche carriers in the main, rather than major network operators.
Other than Japan and Korea from Boston, and Bangladesh and Ethiopia from Manchester the profiles are remarkable similar ( even same Hainan Chinese presence!)
Indeed Manchester has the edge when it comes to the Middle East ( and onwards to the myriad Indian cities) by a country mile ,whilst Boston wins within the Americas
That VFR traffic again .
Neither manages a direct Delhi service for some reason I don’t quite understand given the university /tech industries similarities ( Both cities have major scientific universities, certainly liked by the Chinese rather less by Indians and I don’t know why, its just a little strange through)
Actually not really many computer science Indian students are enticed by rather easier and sponsored opportunities in the California and Washington State’s . Very specific courses in the main not so much physics and genuine scientific research ( generalisations acknowledged!)
From a Manchester -US perspective, and when the economic clouds divide the region desperately needs to recover a West Coast service imho.
With the death of TCX in the UK, future significant restoration/expansion is likely down to VS/DL in my view. Those 339s ordered gotta fly somewhere, however again thats post 2024 and beyond territory.
As for JetBlue I think their intentions beyond access to London remain be seen .
They have certainly been a prime beneficiary of the unexpected slot releases in the south east produced post COVID19, and this may have impacted some of their other plans in the immediacy.
Suffice to say prior summer 2024 just doesn’t seem to work for Boston imho.
As per my comments about United, I am deeply concerned about the gloomy economic prospects coming ourway in summer 2023, and frankly think Trans Atlantic expansion of any significant kind would be madness for all carriers !
After June 2023 just two seasons away, June 2024 is the next obvious point in the cycle .
To be honest Boston seems a pretty weak market from the North West, and isn’t exactly a large hub and spoke centre ( to drive some infill in the back of the bus) either.
Indeed when it come to economic drivers of long haul in particular, both airports can be seen to have some comparable drivers:
VFR ,international students, pharmaceutical industries combined with a healthy dose of outbound tourism.
Hubbing transfers aren’t among them, and it’s therefore primarily point to point traffic generated locally.
Both have some regional commuter/ essential island traffic in the mix, however at neither airport do these make a significant impact for onward connections.
At both airports these connections can be seen to be niche carriers in the main, rather than major network operators.
Other than Japan and Korea from Boston, and Bangladesh and Ethiopia from Manchester the profiles are remarkable similar ( even same Hainan Chinese presence!)
Indeed Manchester has the edge when it comes to the Middle East ( and onwards to the myriad Indian cities) by a country mile ,whilst Boston wins within the Americas
That VFR traffic again .
Neither manages a direct Delhi service for some reason I don’t quite understand given the university /tech industries similarities ( Both cities have major scientific universities, certainly liked by the Chinese rather less by Indians and I don’t know why, its just a little strange through)
Actually not really many computer science Indian students are enticed by rather easier and sponsored opportunities in the California and Washington State’s . Very specific courses in the main not so much physics and genuine scientific research ( generalisations acknowledged!)
From a Manchester -US perspective, and when the economic clouds divide the region desperately needs to recover a West Coast service imho.
With the death of TCX in the UK, future significant restoration/expansion is likely down to VS/DL in my view. Those 339s ordered gotta fly somewhere, however again thats post 2024 and beyond territory.
As for JetBlue I think their intentions beyond access to London remain be seen .
They have certainly been a prime beneficiary of the unexpected slot releases in the south east produced post COVID19, and this may have impacted some of their other plans in the immediacy.
Suffice to say prior summer 2024 just doesn’t seem to work for Boston imho.
Theres seems to be a lot of I think this and I think that statements in your responses. Virgin flew to Boston 3/4 times a week on an A330 and it was due to come back daily on Delta b4 covid struck! So I think there’ is demand for it tbh! United was due to be upgraded to a 767300 again b4 covid! Perhaps seeing you live in London you should really dedicate your time to LGW who kind of lost most of its long haul traffic! Didn’t Virgin pull out but kept Manchester.
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Theres seems to be a lot of I think this and I think that statements in your responses. Virgin flew to Boston 3/4 times a week on an A330 and it was due to come back daily on Delta b4 covid struck! So I think there’ is demand for it tbh! United was due to be upgraded to a 767300 again b4 covid! Perhaps seeing you live in London you should really dedicate your time to LGW who kind of lost most of its long haul traffic! Didn’t Virgin pull out but kept Manchester.
I may live in North West London however come from humble Wythenshawe backgrounds and my own business employs 30 locals in Manchester (60 in the UK and more in Spain and Portugal)
In am a company director, quantity surveyor and analytical by nature not some spotty teenager ( well not for the last forty one years gone)
Manchester is where much of my extended family live, and remains my heart and soul with the interest in Ringway airport being my past present and future thank you
Some lyrics to understand
Instincts that can still betray us
A journey that leads to the sun
Soulless and bent on destruction
A struggle between right and wrong
You take my place in the showdown
I'll observe with a pitiful eye
I'd humbly ask for forgiveness
A request well beyond you and I
Heart and soul, one will burn
Heart and soul, one will burn
An abyss that laughs at creation
A circus complete with all fools
Foundations that lasted the ages
Then ripped apart at their roots
Beyond all this good is the terror
The grip of a mercenary hand
When savagery turns all good reason
There's no turning back, no last stand
Heart and soul, one will burn
Heart and soul, one will burn
Existence, well, what does it matter?
I exist on the best terms I can
The past is now part of my future
The present is well out of hand
Heart and soul
One will burn
Heart and soul
One will burn
Any ideas ?
Have had enough of rather spiteful comments made elsewhere by ignorants, so please don’t bring them here , we all have an interest and don’t make it personal it’s not necessary is it really ?
I would be more than pleased to here from you and others anytime about information relevant through I will critique those when necessary it’s fundamentally how dialogue works .
As for Gatwick an airport yes I use for those trips to Spain but what’s it got to do with Manchester really ?
Again as with fellow London immigrant ( my Scottish friend) can I ask where you get/ got the information about United definitely returning in 2023 ?
And yes your pre COVID19 schedules Delta to Boston ( right plane size over partners Virgin big bird ) and United temporary use of the 764 aren’t disputed, however the world and industry has changed and the recovery process isn’t exactly a straight line is it ?
You can like it or not, 2023 is going to be a rough year and not a belief- a fact many / most carriers ( indeed business more widely) are already planning and implementing managed processes aimed a cash preservation not risky expansion.
Last edited by Rutan16; 29th Aug 2022 at 19:12.
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You may also find this document interesting, Rutan:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-7976/
It suggests that the government target of 600k International students by 2030 has already been met, suggesting that the large growth seen over the last decade will not be replicated in the future (unless policy changes). There may, of course, be some changes in the composition of the student market with a fall in EU students possibly being replaced by those from other countries. The Chinese economy is not in the rude health it once was, with the property market in particular being in free fall. That may impact on the ability of parents to pay for their offspring to attend university in the UK.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-7976/
It suggests that the government target of 600k International students by 2030 has already been met, suggesting that the large growth seen over the last decade will not be replicated in the future (unless policy changes). There may, of course, be some changes in the composition of the student market with a fall in EU students possibly being replaced by those from other countries. The Chinese economy is not in the rude health it once was, with the property market in particular being in free fall. That may impact on the ability of parents to pay for their offspring to attend university in the UK.
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You may also find this document interesting, Rutan:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-7976/
It suggests that the government target of 600k International students by 2030 has already been met, suggesting that the large growth seen over the last decade will not be replicated in the future (unless policy changes). There may, of course, be some changes in the composition of the student market with a fall in EU students possibly being replaced by those from other countries. The Chinese economy is not in the rude health it once was, with the property market in particular being in free fall. That may impact on the ability of parents to pay for their offspring to attend university in the UK.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-7976/
It suggests that the government target of 600k International students by 2030 has already been met, suggesting that the large growth seen over the last decade will not be replicated in the future (unless policy changes). There may, of course, be some changes in the composition of the student market with a fall in EU students possibly being replaced by those from other countries. The Chinese economy is not in the rude health it once was, with the property market in particular being in free fall. That may impact on the ability of parents to pay for their offspring to attend university in the UK.
That said China has provided quite a sizeable increase in permits ( this winter I understand mainly for the completion of existing courses)
Now Outside of the EU many English colleges are actively promoting and seeking International students from the rest of the world right now (They desperately need the funding monies !); can’t get those Erasmus students anymore .
An unfortunate and unexpected consequence being fewer places on some courses for domestic students so to speak.
Its certainly an interesting subject for debate elsewhere if you have time .
Apparently the number of international student visas for the coming year is among the highest on record
Its interesting that contrary to your and that article in the COVID19 in the year upto March 2022 466,611 visas were approved up 58% on the previous year and this year its expected to be close to 470,000.
That still leaves 30,000 for growth potential in the coming years.
So the suggestion international students ( except EU candidates) may/are going elsewhere is fictitious to be honest.
Indeed reports forecast slowing in the demand curve and most definitely No contractions, quite the opposite.
As a tool it identifies where the dean’s of colleges need to refocus ( having been forced to contract out of Erasmus and similar programmes by the national government)
However what’s that to got do with Manchester airport in particular prey tell ?
Are you suggesting Beijing is for the bin ( a route restored a week ago , immediately after PRC eased some departure restrictions) or that Cathay pull Hong Kong a route they have prioritised over what might have been considered the logical EU capitals in the post COVID19 recovery?
Or just perhaps you are implying Liverpool bound students route via a Foreign (Eu) terminal and a certain German carrier the name I forget right now a few days a week?
Whilst international students make up a comparatively small market overall , they are captive, non discretionary and therefore valuable .
Like everything else Brexit consequences are disastrous!
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Theres seems to be a lot of I think this and I think that statements in your responses. Virgin flew to Boston 3/4 times a week on an A330 and it was due to come back daily on Delta b4 covid struck! So I think there’ is demand for it tbh! United was due to be upgraded to a 767300 again b4 covid! Perhaps seeing you live in London you should really dedicate your time to LGW who kind of lost most of its long haul traffic! Didn’t Virgin pull out but kept Manchester.
With current exchange rates, it might be thought that we could see a boost in Americans coming over here, but the US has its own problems and in any case those who do fly tend mainly to use Heathrow unfortunately.
I'd be delighted if United did return in 2023 and would like to see flights to LAX and SFO from MAN again soon. But one has to be realistic. For some airlines, survival will be the name of the game, and for others only flying to places with little risk and a good chance of a decent yield.
I should add that the situation going east looks more hopeful. Emirates are back to 3 x A380 this winter, Hainan returning albeit with a modest frequency and Cathay gradually increasing flights. Fingers crossed those flights perform well.
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Tsk Rutan, must every conversation assume that I only have interest in one airport? I have my own preferences around which I prefer to travel through, but as a Lancastrian by birth I favour the fortunes of the North West in general and spent much of my youth at either one airport or the other. Having been heavily involved in student campaigns across the North in the past, I found the article interesting as I was unaware of a Government attraction target ( indeed I suggest that was not publicised during the Brexit campaign, funnily enough).As I understand it, there are a number of planned charters from Junao in the near future which are likely to be student related, hence it does impact MAN and the likelihood of converting charters to scheduled services.
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If you don’t want me to make “ biased” assumptions consider phasing things rather differently.
I too want a prosperous North West region indeed my own pockets will directly benefit
It’s not me that rattles on another forum constantly about a 4 day week flight as if every one along the East Lancs cares !
I have to say my own daughter is in her final year in Nantes and thankfully benefited from the Erasmus programmes .
She has absolutely no intentions of returning either and doesn’t need to “ has a German passport courtesy of mum
As I said contrary to the narrative, China has increased the student visas and UK Plc has issued more .What’s your immediate problem.
I am far more concerned by the massive drop in EU students than global students aren’t you ?
And did you miss read quoting myself “Whilst international students make up a comparatively small market overall , they are captive, non discretionary and therefore valuable”
I too want a prosperous North West region indeed my own pockets will directly benefit
It’s not me that rattles on another forum constantly about a 4 day week flight as if every one along the East Lancs cares !
I have to say my own daughter is in her final year in Nantes and thankfully benefited from the Erasmus programmes .
She has absolutely no intentions of returning either and doesn’t need to “ has a German passport courtesy of mum
As I said contrary to the narrative, China has increased the student visas and UK Plc has issued more .What’s your immediate problem.
I am far more concerned by the massive drop in EU students than global students aren’t you ?
And did you miss read quoting myself “Whilst international students make up a comparatively small market overall , they are captive, non discretionary and therefore valuable”
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Rutan, I was responding to one of your previous posts in which you made reference to the lack of a Delhi service despite the “university/tech industry similarities”. I’m not sure why you feel I have a problem with the numbers, although I feel that universities could easily become exposed to any change in the Chinese market which may occur in the future. Latest data suggests that International students make up 22% of total student numbers although in terms of income, they will make up a substantially higher percentage. Personally, I would prefer EU students to be thought of as domestic, but that particular ship has long sailed.
If you can find any reference I have made to LH flights elsewhere, I will donate £10 to a charity of your choice. Let’s put that type of exchange to bed shall we.
If you can find any reference I have made to LH flights elsewhere, I will donate £10 to a charity of your choice. Let’s put that type of exchange to bed shall we.
Some excellent points raised in the exchanges above. I would like to add my voice to those cautioning against unbridled optimism for the UK aviation industry in 2023. We need to be factoring in recession, and that means airlines retrenching and conserving cash. Some came close to extinction during the covid era, and their reserves remain weakened and depleted. UK carriers in particular received very little help from government, barring those generic schemes which were available to all employers. They need a period of stability and cannot afford to gamble.
MANFOD and Rutan16 explained the looming challenges well. But I would like to add some additional points. Firstly, the 'voucher redemption bulge' which fuelled exceptional demand in Summer 2022 has largely worked through the system now. It will be a far lesser factor for the industry in 2023. Although in certain respects that is a good thing, as the affected carriers were in effect working off historic liabilities with voucher redemptions not bringing in fresh cash.
2022 also saw a surge in demand for travel from those who had not been able to meet up with friends and family for upto three years previously. Much of that demand has now been satisfied; many of those delayed reunions have now taken place. Exceptions would be Australia, New Zealand and some Asian nations which retained harsh covid entry restrictions upto a much later stage than most of their European counterparts. Some of the delayed Australasia demand will be satisfied in the coming UK Winter season (Antipodean Summer). Certain countries such as China remain too restricted for discretionary leisure travel to return; students and essential business travel will endure the necessary hurdles as their payback justifies it. Even the US was relatively late to lift covid restrictions for visitors.
War in Ukraine remains a major problem. The human suffering is self-evident and I acknowledge it 100%, but for the purposes of this discussion I will stick to the implications for air travel. Fuel prices have soared, and further rises cannot be ruled out. The impact on airlines need not be further explained to most readers on here. Sanctions and airspace closures have imposed longer routings requiring extra fuel-burn for many key routes. Carriers such as Finnair and Air Baltic have seen their East-West business models destroyed overnight. Travel between the UK and Russia is at a virtual standstill. There are calls to ban Russian tourists from vacationing in EU states. Some destinations in Eastern Europe have seen demand for city breaks impacted by perceived proximity to the war zone.
MANFOD touched on exchange rates. The "everything sell-off" in the financial markets has seen the USDX (US Dollar Index) soar to a twenty year high, making Dollars comparatively expensive versus other major currencies. In general, when investment assets are sold payments are made in USD, so demand for these naturally soars when a major sell-off hits. However, whilst we see a very challenging GBP/USD exchange rate, the Euro has endured a torrid run due to perceived reliance of Euroland on Russian oil and gas. So the GBP/EUR exchange rate is far less daunting, and destinations such as Turkey with the cratering Turkish Lira appear to offer great value to travellers. So, as MANFOD alluded to, I would expect to see a continuation of increased demand for destinations which offer 'bargain' prices. Folks might not axe travel altogether, but they may book a fortnight in Antalya rather than Orlando. We also see this effect by airline as well: a carrier such as Ryanair can benefit from customers trading down from premium carriers which they may have preferred previously. So the no-frills short-haul carriers may be better placed looking ahead than those relying on Transatlantic demand, for example.
The cruise industry continues to suffer. They put out upbeat messages to give the impression of business as usual, but demand is muted and caution abounds. Just look how many cruise ships continue to operate loops around the coast of the British Isles. Many more adventurous itineraries continue to get cancelled. Some older customers continue to fear cruise ships as potential vectors for mass-infection. Even those who don't (like me) do fear being confined to one's cabin for a fortnight in the cell if spotted using a tissue. Fly-cruise business will remain challenging for a while yet, and that is another blow to Florida and the Caribbean in particular.
One more factor to keep in mind too. Many customers endured a poor air travel experience in 2022. Airport delays, queues, late cancellations, lost luggage. I've had so many friends tell me they've been put off travelling abroad again for the foreseeable. Companies such as TUI, BA and EasyJet have lost alot of goodwill. This will take time to return. And the administrative aftermath from disrupted travel is an enduring nightmare: endless forms, unanswered phones ("your call is important to us"), staff in India / China sympathetic but not empowered to actually resolve issues when the phone does miraculously get answered. E.Mail communications routinely ignored. I and close family / friends are beyond hacked off with this merry-go-round of failure and frustration. It is actively putting me off making new bookings. Just looking at my own track record, I felt like a full-time travel agent pursuing refunds and juggling vouchers in 2020 / 2021. I'm still awaiting an Air Europa refund from early 2020. SAS refuse to refund an expensive 'non-refundable change fee' despite it being THEY who cancelled the new flights with the customers ready to travel. I'm in dispute with Wizz Air who refuse to refund £95 in 'Wizz Credits' which they neglected to set against my rebooked flights despite me doing everything correctly to enable this to happen as intended. My nephew recently had his outbound travel luggage delivered by Aer Lingus to a remote log cabin in Idaho - two weeks after he had returned home to the UK. He has found it impossible to contact Aer Lingus by any communications channel to discuss this. This year, when covid restrictions had broadly ended, I felt that it was safe to put a toe back into air travel in the form of new bookings. RYANAIR cancelled my return trip MAN-ORK, they took over £250 from my credit card for the "free" rebook to alternative dates option. It took me six months to get that back. EASYJET cancelled my Summer MAN-IOM trip; as I'd committed to ground arrangements on the island I had to rebook with Loganair at a far higher fare than if I'd booked with them in the first place. WIZZ AIR cancelled my August 2022 RIX-LTN booking ... the one I was already in dispute with them about for not applying my Wizz Credit to the booking. I had to rebook Finnair RIX-HEL-LHR as I was already committed to MAN-RIX with Air Baltic. And, speaking of Air Baltic, they have now cancelled my MAN-RIX-MAN booking for four passengers in September.
I realise that the above paragraph is a yarn, but it illustrates an important point. Leisure travel is meant to be FUN. And for too many customers in 2022 it hasn't been anything close to that. I've personally had SIX flight sectors cancelled on bookings made SINCE covid restrictions were lifted in the UK. They all generate another round of thankless admin which I naively thought I'd left behind post lifting of covid restrictions. I know I'm not the only one experiencing this. IT MAKES ME RELUCTANT TO BOOK NEW FLIGHTS. I have only two sectors booked at this point; I'd usually have around 20. That is purely down to avoidance of further administrative hassle, not household budgeting. I can't be the only one who feels hacked off with the airline industry at this point. I completely understand the problems they have faced, but I won't subject myself to more of this until the industry gets its act together. And I want my refunds sorted too. The Wizz Air one is off to arbitration in some EU department. I'd get banned if I wrote what I really think about them on here. Suffice to say that they'll be getting no more business from me or anybody I advise on air travel bookings.
So, in summary. 2023 will be tough.
- The voucher bulge has largely worked through the system.
- Cost of living crisis stressing disposable incomes.
- Exchange rate concerns, fuel costs, geopolitical fears.
- Folks at the end of their tether with the dysfunctional leisure travel experience.
- Continuing cancellations, changes, unanswered communications, delayed refunds, lost luggage, nightmarish admin hassle.
- Fear of sudden new covid restrictions; confinement to cabin / hotel room if seen with runny nose / getting stranded overseas.
ANYONE FOR A HOLIDAY?
MANFOD and Rutan16 explained the looming challenges well. But I would like to add some additional points. Firstly, the 'voucher redemption bulge' which fuelled exceptional demand in Summer 2022 has largely worked through the system now. It will be a far lesser factor for the industry in 2023. Although in certain respects that is a good thing, as the affected carriers were in effect working off historic liabilities with voucher redemptions not bringing in fresh cash.
2022 also saw a surge in demand for travel from those who had not been able to meet up with friends and family for upto three years previously. Much of that demand has now been satisfied; many of those delayed reunions have now taken place. Exceptions would be Australia, New Zealand and some Asian nations which retained harsh covid entry restrictions upto a much later stage than most of their European counterparts. Some of the delayed Australasia demand will be satisfied in the coming UK Winter season (Antipodean Summer). Certain countries such as China remain too restricted for discretionary leisure travel to return; students and essential business travel will endure the necessary hurdles as their payback justifies it. Even the US was relatively late to lift covid restrictions for visitors.
War in Ukraine remains a major problem. The human suffering is self-evident and I acknowledge it 100%, but for the purposes of this discussion I will stick to the implications for air travel. Fuel prices have soared, and further rises cannot be ruled out. The impact on airlines need not be further explained to most readers on here. Sanctions and airspace closures have imposed longer routings requiring extra fuel-burn for many key routes. Carriers such as Finnair and Air Baltic have seen their East-West business models destroyed overnight. Travel between the UK and Russia is at a virtual standstill. There are calls to ban Russian tourists from vacationing in EU states. Some destinations in Eastern Europe have seen demand for city breaks impacted by perceived proximity to the war zone.
MANFOD touched on exchange rates. The "everything sell-off" in the financial markets has seen the USDX (US Dollar Index) soar to a twenty year high, making Dollars comparatively expensive versus other major currencies. In general, when investment assets are sold payments are made in USD, so demand for these naturally soars when a major sell-off hits. However, whilst we see a very challenging GBP/USD exchange rate, the Euro has endured a torrid run due to perceived reliance of Euroland on Russian oil and gas. So the GBP/EUR exchange rate is far less daunting, and destinations such as Turkey with the cratering Turkish Lira appear to offer great value to travellers. So, as MANFOD alluded to, I would expect to see a continuation of increased demand for destinations which offer 'bargain' prices. Folks might not axe travel altogether, but they may book a fortnight in Antalya rather than Orlando. We also see this effect by airline as well: a carrier such as Ryanair can benefit from customers trading down from premium carriers which they may have preferred previously. So the no-frills short-haul carriers may be better placed looking ahead than those relying on Transatlantic demand, for example.
The cruise industry continues to suffer. They put out upbeat messages to give the impression of business as usual, but demand is muted and caution abounds. Just look how many cruise ships continue to operate loops around the coast of the British Isles. Many more adventurous itineraries continue to get cancelled. Some older customers continue to fear cruise ships as potential vectors for mass-infection. Even those who don't (like me) do fear being confined to one's cabin for a fortnight in the cell if spotted using a tissue. Fly-cruise business will remain challenging for a while yet, and that is another blow to Florida and the Caribbean in particular.
One more factor to keep in mind too. Many customers endured a poor air travel experience in 2022. Airport delays, queues, late cancellations, lost luggage. I've had so many friends tell me they've been put off travelling abroad again for the foreseeable. Companies such as TUI, BA and EasyJet have lost alot of goodwill. This will take time to return. And the administrative aftermath from disrupted travel is an enduring nightmare: endless forms, unanswered phones ("your call is important to us"), staff in India / China sympathetic but not empowered to actually resolve issues when the phone does miraculously get answered. E.Mail communications routinely ignored. I and close family / friends are beyond hacked off with this merry-go-round of failure and frustration. It is actively putting me off making new bookings. Just looking at my own track record, I felt like a full-time travel agent pursuing refunds and juggling vouchers in 2020 / 2021. I'm still awaiting an Air Europa refund from early 2020. SAS refuse to refund an expensive 'non-refundable change fee' despite it being THEY who cancelled the new flights with the customers ready to travel. I'm in dispute with Wizz Air who refuse to refund £95 in 'Wizz Credits' which they neglected to set against my rebooked flights despite me doing everything correctly to enable this to happen as intended. My nephew recently had his outbound travel luggage delivered by Aer Lingus to a remote log cabin in Idaho - two weeks after he had returned home to the UK. He has found it impossible to contact Aer Lingus by any communications channel to discuss this. This year, when covid restrictions had broadly ended, I felt that it was safe to put a toe back into air travel in the form of new bookings. RYANAIR cancelled my return trip MAN-ORK, they took over £250 from my credit card for the "free" rebook to alternative dates option. It took me six months to get that back. EASYJET cancelled my Summer MAN-IOM trip; as I'd committed to ground arrangements on the island I had to rebook with Loganair at a far higher fare than if I'd booked with them in the first place. WIZZ AIR cancelled my August 2022 RIX-LTN booking ... the one I was already in dispute with them about for not applying my Wizz Credit to the booking. I had to rebook Finnair RIX-HEL-LHR as I was already committed to MAN-RIX with Air Baltic. And, speaking of Air Baltic, they have now cancelled my MAN-RIX-MAN booking for four passengers in September.
I realise that the above paragraph is a yarn, but it illustrates an important point. Leisure travel is meant to be FUN. And for too many customers in 2022 it hasn't been anything close to that. I've personally had SIX flight sectors cancelled on bookings made SINCE covid restrictions were lifted in the UK. They all generate another round of thankless admin which I naively thought I'd left behind post lifting of covid restrictions. I know I'm not the only one experiencing this. IT MAKES ME RELUCTANT TO BOOK NEW FLIGHTS. I have only two sectors booked at this point; I'd usually have around 20. That is purely down to avoidance of further administrative hassle, not household budgeting. I can't be the only one who feels hacked off with the airline industry at this point. I completely understand the problems they have faced, but I won't subject myself to more of this until the industry gets its act together. And I want my refunds sorted too. The Wizz Air one is off to arbitration in some EU department. I'd get banned if I wrote what I really think about them on here. Suffice to say that they'll be getting no more business from me or anybody I advise on air travel bookings.
So, in summary. 2023 will be tough.
- The voucher bulge has largely worked through the system.
- Cost of living crisis stressing disposable incomes.
- Exchange rate concerns, fuel costs, geopolitical fears.
- Folks at the end of their tether with the dysfunctional leisure travel experience.
- Continuing cancellations, changes, unanswered communications, delayed refunds, lost luggage, nightmarish admin hassle.
- Fear of sudden new covid restrictions; confinement to cabin / hotel room if seen with runny nose / getting stranded overseas.
ANYONE FOR A HOLIDAY?
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Great post, Ozzy. Can I add another issue? The astronomic increases in the cost of gas and electricity will also impact on the costs of running airports and the concessions within them. For a recovering industry, it’s yet another straw on the camel’s back.
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On the University issues we seemingly are just looking at the same problems from slightly differing angles and not actually in any disagreement.
The issues on another site shouldn’t spill over here especially those of a certain cabal ( we know of whom we speak
)If you want to name a charity I’ll donate £10 this evening ( currently I support MSF and Mind with regular donations)
As to the more personal issue yes let’s put the issues to the side and move on
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That’s hugely generous of you. I do support a number of charities but Cancer Research UK is the most important to me. I also support MSF and I’ll replicate your offer in kind.
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Thank you Keith for your monthly donation of £10.00
Your regular gift will help us commit to long-term research projects with huge potential that could help save more lives.Your donation has been processed successfully and you should receive a receipt by email from us in the next hour.
Full details of your Direct Debit will be sent to you in the post no later than 10 working days before the first collection date. Cancer Research UK will show on your bank statement against this Direct Debit.
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Reference number ODEJ2162V5P7D0 Transaction amount £10.00 Frequency Monthly Start date 5thBy the way good choice as my wife is an oncology sister at a leading Cancer and research centre in North London