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Flybe-V1

Old 7th Apr 2021, 13:33
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It is all explained in the EY report linked above. Flybe Ltd (in administration) has now had its name changed to FBE Realisations 2021 (presumably because they will continue to realise some more cash for the creditors by selling off the remaining unwanted assets). Meanwhile, Thyme Opco will change its name to Flybe Limited as they have bought the operating business, retained staff, IT and infrastructure to presumably run an airline called something like Flybe. Thyme have been paying the wages of the core airline since August and given the capable board they have put together with significant experience and competency, there is just a chance that this will actually be an operating airline. LF may well want to extract some of his cash at some point down the line but it doesn't necessarily mean just through a sell and dump of slots. The details of the deal are confidential but seem to involve paying a very small amount up front and then paying more to EY further down the line, if it all works out. There is no point in speculating about intentions until they start actually taking on staff, aircraft leases, advertising routes and selling tickets.
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Old 7th Apr 2021, 21:31
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The report does explain it all. It also says the senior secured creditor has a £3.5m payout from the administration so far - it must have gone a long way to cover the costs that the same senior secured creditor has racked up to pay staff to keep this bandwagon rolling to try to make a return on the first gambling stake. If that's now run dry, it would explain the pay cuts in Exeter recently that led to some jumping ship.

It'll be interesting to see how things go. The CAA report says that they need to keep Old Flybe alive until 3 June for this to work out with the slots even if New Flybe gets its licences between now and then. I hope to Christ you aren't too far into this. It looks like a gamble and as with the best of them it could go either way.
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Old 8th Apr 2021, 15:58
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I'm still shocked how many bitter people there are on here, willing and eager to twist the knife, to stir up bad sentiment and wish away the hopes of 100s of employees made redundant that it's some sort of scam.

You've no better information than those inside, developing and fighting for a phoenix from the flames.

If for no better reason than it's been a bast**d of a year... leave these people alone, wish them well and good luck, and take yourself off to facebook if you're bored.

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Old 8th Apr 2021, 17:27
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Well said rogueone
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 13:35
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Most people want to see airlines succeed but is really ok that a carrier can run up huge debts then restart using only the good parts? What about all the other companies that lose out? So it’s fine for catering companies and ground handlers to lose out because Flybe deserves another shot? Someone has to pay when these things don’t work out and the carrier leaves a debt behind.

That’s before you even look if it’s realistic to relaunch. The carrier didn’t make money in good times. Now it’s hard to travel and rival carriers have already expanded taking over most of the worthwhile services.

I’d love to see a thriving regional scene but you also have to be realistic. Perhaps the owners do genuinely want to run an airline but at the moment, the approach of repeating Flybe (same planes/bases/operations etc) isn’t a winner in my opinion.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 13:44
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This happens every day when businesses are put into administration and immediately brought out of administration by their former management, or a suitor in what is called a "pre-pack administration". They are thoroughly unethical, and as you quite correctly say, leave suppliers out of pocket as the "new owners" rarely buy the liabilities, just the assets.

Distasteful though it is is, it is legal, and there is no reason why airlines shouldn't be resurrected in the same way. In my opinion, having been on the wrong end of a number of "pre packs" I would like to see the practise stopped across the board, and our response to a "phoenix business" looking to work with us was simple - "you're a cash account until such time as you settle the outstanding debt from the failed business". It was a win win policy, we either got positive cash flow by being paid up front, or the new business settled the old debt and resumed normal trading with us.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 14:55
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A good attitude to take. One which would make it even harder for Flybe2 to succeed if adopted by more companies.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 15:15
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Its show business not show friends...... and no, the worlds not fair.... BUT Logan didn't mind trying to put the boot in over the recent OL and RL CAA meeting and I doubt easy are making cash on BHX/MAN to Scotland on a 200 seat Jet.

I do feel for the companies owed cash and even the other regional airlines that have battled trough COVID and racked up debt to survive.
They will have a debt free, well run, low cost airline thats competing hard against them on regional routes and they will struggle to compete and service their debt.

Flybe was in bad health and Covid was the final nail in its coffin, it is ironic that it may actually be the best thing to happen to them going forward.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 15:33
  #249 (permalink)  
 
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Don't think you can blame Loganair after Flybe put the boot in following the break up of the franchise. As you say though, all’s fair...

If they do get going it will be interesting to see if you really can run a low cost airline using 78 seat turboprops without racking up huge debts long term.

Will be interesting to see if BALPA go for a class action on TUPE too.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 15:40
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Originally Posted by oapilot
Don't think you can blame Loganair after Flybe put the boot in following the break up of the franchise. As you say though, all’s fair...
Remind me what happened with BMIR and Loganair?
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 16:26
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I think there's a difference between wanting an airline to fail and saying it's all about slots.

I've no axe to grind with Flybe, I very nearly worked for them, but likewise I have a horrible nagging suspicion this is all about slots. I think it is possible, from my perspective anyway, to wish any new airline well but remain suspicious around the motives. That's purely based on my conclusions around the venture capitalists who were involved and reading the EY reports and CAA reports.

If it isn't slot related was the Flybe brand really that revered that it's worth all these legal battles to resurrect?
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 17:16
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Just remember whilst you're throwing muck at this new venture, it is exactly that. A BRAND NEW AIRLINE. The name and intellectual property were acquired.. it's a clean beginning.

The bad management gone, airframes gone, routes gone, bases gone, staff gone, the AOC, OL, RL might also be gone, and the slots may go too.

However, what isn't gone, is the willingness to give hope to those who've spent their own money, time, resources to be ready to step up if called to. Aviation professionals.

For these people, have a bit of compassion. I'm sure the naysayers on here would feel different if it were their company.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 18:48
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Very well said. I could not have put it better myself. I do hope that this new Flybe succeeds - it may be all about slots but I think that, at this stage, it's very unlikely. I guess that only time will tell now.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 19:06
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Just remember whilst you're throwing muck at this new venture, it is exactly that. A BRAND NEW AIRLINE. The name and intellectual property were acquired.. it's a clean beginning.
Can somebody just clarify this point? If so, why the long dance with the CAA and the receivers?
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 20:11
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southamptonavgeek

Can you give any reasons you expect success? Given it failed in the past, most airlines are barely making any money and it now has competition on the routes it previously operated (often with a monopoly). It’s also chosen to use a brand which was tarnished and most public will remember as that airline that covid killed leaving people out of pocket and stranded. The cards are just not in its favour.

As I said before we all want airlines to succeed. But we also have to be realistic. What are the gaps in the market you see this airline with a couple of Dash 8s serving?
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 21:36
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SWBKCB

Due diligence & keeping the existing OL, RL & AOC is substantially easier than setting up new ones. There are many examples of functioning airlines being bought for their AOCs rather than start that process from scratch.

& if there are remedy slots available, albeit limited in what can be flown on them - wouldn't you at least try?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take!
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 21:38
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Agreed. I think the reality is that if they get off the ground, there’s not nearly enough regional business to sustain everyone currently and at least one airline will go to the ground.

The Flybe brand is trashed, and I really just can’t see any gap in the market for a new ‘Flybe’ in the current climate. Loganair are clearly worried about the new adventure commencing operations given their involvement thus far which probably highlights the fragile nature of UK domestic at the moment and the near to mid future.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 21:57
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southamptonavgeek can add to this.... but here's my take. Which again I assert, you probably don't care for. I think you're here for the skepticism, the Flybe bashing sycophantic posting and trolling.

Originally Posted by BA318
Can you give any reasons you expect success? Given it failed in the past, most airlines are barely making any money and it now has competition on the routes it previously operated (often with a monopoly).
All the old dead wood is gone, the bad management has gone, all the old airframes are gone, all the expensive jets - with expensive lease and maintenance deals are gone, the big spread of unprofitable routes and bases are gone, the debt is gone... it's a clean slate

Originally Posted by BA318
It’s also chosen to use a brand which was tarnished and most public will remember as that airline that covid killed leaving people out of pocket and stranded. The cards are just not in its favour.
Whilst not the best brand, it certainly was the most recognisable in regional aviation and that in itself is valuable. Brands can heal, and those outside of aviation (SLF), give little regard for some lost luggage, or if covid cost someone they don't know the price of a ticket. All companies and airlines get bad press, fortunes turn. They don't sit on twitter and PPrune reading how much you don't like airline x.

Originally Posted by BA318
As I said before we all want airlines to succeed. But we also have to be realistic. What are the gaps in the market you see this airline with a couple of Dash 8s serving?
Nobody knows at this point, but why can't they focus on Flybe's old profitable routes, from the profitable bases and go from there. The Dash was a great weapon of choice for these. Birmingham, Southampton, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Belfast... maybe with LHR and LCY & some PSO flights to NQY etc. Keep it simple for now. The Dash (even though no future fleet has been decided on) was a better prospect than an ATR or a Saab et al. Flies faster, flies higher, flies further, carries more people.

Here's a challenge to anyone hoping this new airline fails.... before asking why won't it work, I dare you to come up with 1 or 2 reasons it will.

If you've nothing nice to say, say nothing! Good luck to them.
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Old 10th Apr 2021, 07:20
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You seem to think I want them to fail. Personally I don’t care. I hope they do succeed but history shows there is only room for so many carriers flying the same routes. I am not one of those who believe they just want the slots. I just don’t think the airline will work because the market has moved on and the gap it once filled has gone.

We don’t have to be silent just because you want to see Flybe back. Everyone has a right to question and look into things.

As for the brand, very few airline brands get redirected after failure. People don’t need to read Pprune to know Flybe failed. It was all over the national media for a week.

The possible routes you list have already been taken over. Blue Islands, Loganair, Aurigny, Eastern have moved in. EasyJet has gone in the bigger ones. The NQY PSO is gone. And no carrier has made LHR-EDI/ABZ work except BA. Just look at the names who failed on it - BMI (even with Lufthansa backing), Virgin, Flybe 1. From most reports LCY lost them money too.

The new carrier will need to find niches. Perhaps London to some of the smaller destinations in Scandinavia/Germany might work. We will have to see how Brexit restrictions affect second homes in France and Spain as that could be another market like the SOU routes (although BA and Eastern have moved on them too).

That’s why I was asking how you think they can succeed. I’m not trolling. I’m just not seeing the same opportunities you seem to. So please stop the name calling and understand people can have a difference of opinion without it being just to wind someone up. And as I said if those optimistic about this can share some possible routes where they see a gap then do share - maybe I’m not aware of gaps in the market and missing part of the picture.
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Old 10th Apr 2021, 07:25
  #260 (permalink)  
 
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"People don’t need to read PPRuNe to know Flybe failed."

especially those who used it and had bookings there - people have along memory for that sort of thing

As for the Dash - its been eaten alive by the ATR in just about every market in the world
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