Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Misc. Forums > Airlines, Airports & Routes
Reload this Page >

What chance is there of a new UK start up airline?

Airlines, Airports & Routes Topics about airports, routes and airline business.

What chance is there of a new UK start up airline?

Old 13th May 2020, 19:01
  #1 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Lincolnshire UK
Posts: 178
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
What chance is there of a new UK start up airline?

What do you think the chances are of us seeing a new UK start-up airline in a couple of months time?
One that has no debt hanging around its neck, can access a glut of available aircraft while lease prices are down to about 60% of what they were just two months ago and fuel is at a rock-bottom price.
And lots of experienced staff from all 'trades' available too...?
Is there a hope?
Ed
AirportsEd is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 19:42
  #2 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: london
Age: 56
Posts: 86
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by AirportsEd
What do you think the chances are of us seeing a new UK start-up airline in a couple of months time?
One that has no debt hanging around its neck, can access a glut of available aircraft while lease prices are down to about 60% of what they were just two months ago and fuel is at a rock-bottom price.
And lots of experienced staff from all 'trades' available too...?
Is there a hope?
Ed
In a word NO.

Not unless you wish to loose all your money.
spacedog is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 20:00
  #3 (permalink)  
pug
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: A post-punk postcard fair
Posts: 1,363
Received 32 Likes on 22 Posts
Originally Posted by spacedog
In a word NO.

Not unless you wish to loose all your money.
Maybe not in a couple of months, but I suspect there might be someone out there watching how this unfolds and what the incumbents are doing. The longer this goes on, the more likely there will be a gap to fill when a solution to all this is eventually found - the current airlines will have a lot of lost ground to make up so it could provide rich pickings for anyone with the knowledge and funding.
pug is online now  
Old 13th May 2020, 20:14
  #4 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 956
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
What basis are you judging lease prices being 60% down?
Dannyboy39 is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 20:44
  #5 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Dublin
Posts: 94
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Ready and waiting with zero hours contracts and other forms of social dumping
The Foss is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 21:05
  #6 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Lithuania
Posts: 146
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Dannyboy39
What basis are you judging lease prices being 60% down?
They are down up to 100% - Norwegian gets to keep their aircraft for free because there is nowhere better for lessors to place them.
alm1 is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 21:06
  #7 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 762
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Ed

My prediction is that the large airline (EZY, RYR) survivors of this will maximise on any perceived profitable routes.

The smaller regionals (Eastern, Logan etc) will corner the UK'ish market and I believe when the dust has settled, collaborate to make any new competition difficult.

IMO it will put a potential airline investor off. For example the administrators were trying to sell flybe as a going concern. Hands up here who would buy that at the moment or the foreseeable future.

Last edited by jamestkirk; 13th May 2020 at 21:08. Reason: grammar
jamestkirk is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 21:35
  #8 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Hadley's Hope, LV426
Posts: 167
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
What chance is there of a new UK start-up airline? About as much chance as Jeremy Corbyn being Prime Minister.

Fully agree with jamestkirk 's prediction.
TelsBoy is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 21:52
  #9 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Under the flight path
Posts: 2,623
Received 11 Likes on 4 Posts
Any new start-up, even with cheap fuel, cheap aircraft, plentiful slots and "flexible" crew will face two big hurdles - marketing recognition and the competition from very affluent, powerful and experienced competitors wanting to keep them out.
LGS6753 is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 21:56
  #10 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I think that there will indeed be such startups coming up as early as next year, making use of the abundance of available aircraft and qualified personnel. But most probably not in the UK. My bet is Eastern Europe due to the lower taxes, lower labour costs, less strong competition and somewhat less uncertainty in the political and regulatory future coming with Brexit. Most probably, those will be ACMI companies providing cheap capacity to scheduled carriers in Europe and beyond. Making use of such a company during periods of high workload or while your aircraft are in maintenance is often a lot cheaper than expanding your own fleet and hiring extra personnel and it will make sense to larger airlines who won't be willing to take the risk of expansion/restoration to pre-crisis fleet sizes just yet.
PilotLZ is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 22:00
  #11 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Lincolnshire UK
Posts: 178
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Hi DB39,
The 60% figure that I used was that mentioned by OAG earlier today, but as you can see, alm1 explains that, for some, it's even cheaper than that right now. Of course, everyone needs that kind of help right now...
Before I posted I had thought about the existing airlines 'hoovering up the pieces' but wondered if they would have the confidence / cash to be anything other than completely risk averse in the short term.
I wondered if that might provide an opening for a, by comparison, currently cash rich organisation - and that might mean one that is not currently in the airline business - seeing an opportunity, if only in the domestic market to begin with. Time will tell I guess.
Ed
AirportsEd is offline  
Old 13th May 2020, 22:10
  #12 (permalink)  
pug
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: A post-punk postcard fair
Posts: 1,363
Received 32 Likes on 22 Posts
Originally Posted by LGS6753
Any new start-up, even with cheap fuel, cheap aircraft, plentiful slots and "flexible" crew will face two big hurdles - marketing recognition and the competition from very affluent, powerful and experienced competitors wanting to keep them out.
Fair point, but hypothetically if this goes on for a year or so, these airlines will only have so much in reserve before they have to make significant operational cutbacks just to stay in business, more so than already announced. Hence my view that it would potentially clean the slate and make it more attractive for a newcomer.

Obviously I hope it doesn’t come to that, but there isn’t a clear end in sight for aviation at the moment, and it doesn’t hurt to try to find some optimism despite this bad situation.
pug is online now  
Old 14th May 2020, 00:13
  #13 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: England
Posts: 1,904
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Trivia time...Name me the last wholly British owned and based airline that launched?
Superpilot is offline  
Old 14th May 2020, 00:23
  #14 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Blighty
Posts: 5,675
Likes: 0
Received 22 Likes on 17 Posts
Jota Aviation incorporated at Companies House on 24-Nov-2009 ?
davidjohnson6 is offline  
Old 14th May 2020, 00:27
  #15 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: London
Posts: 229
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
The only ‘airline’ that could maybe come out of this would be on the Isle of Man. As the LPL/MAN loganair routes are only temporary and the island is keen to get flights back up and running to BHX when this is all over.


The idea of an airline based on the island came around about a week after BEs demise.
flyerguy is offline  
Old 14th May 2020, 05:39
  #16 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 8,449
Received 68 Likes on 46 Posts
Originally Posted by flyerguy
The only ‘airline’ that could maybe come out of this would be on the Isle of Man. As the LPL/MAN loganair routes are only temporary and the island is keen to get flights back up and running to BHX when this is all over.


The idea of an airline based on the island came around about a week after BEs demise.
Would 'open skies' need to be changed for this to work?
SWBKCB is online now  
Old 14th May 2020, 07:51
  #17 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: IOM
Posts: 967
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Would 'open skies' need to be changed for this to work?
Longer term, maybe. But I don't really think it makes a difference.

I think it is highly likely we might see a new operator be born on the Isle of Man.
JSCL is online now  
Old 14th May 2020, 08:02
  #18 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 8,449
Received 68 Likes on 46 Posts
Without some licencing protection or PSO support, would they not run the risk of having their successful routes cherry-picked by larger operators with economy of scale?
SWBKCB is online now  
Old 14th May 2020, 08:13
  #19 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: west of the tamar
Age: 75
Posts: 853
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Pretty slim but how about the possibility of the Government nationalising one or more bankrupt carriers to create a new state airline?
GROUNDHOG is offline  
Old 14th May 2020, 08:26
  #20 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: IOM
Posts: 967
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Without some licencing protection or PSO support, would they not run the risk of having their successful routes cherry-picked by larger operators with economy of scale?
There is nobody to pick that up, especially not on slim routes like Birmingham that BE previously only operated once per day. It's possible in the longer term like I said, but that would be the only benefits of openskies. OS could also hinder a new operator.

Originally Posted by GROUNDHOG
Pretty slim but how about the possibility of the Government nationalising one or more bankrupt carriers to create a new state airline?
I doubt that'll happen. Much better to start with a clean sheet.
JSCL is online now  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.