Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
DC3 Dave
That is, as you say, a discussion for another place.
That is, as you say, a discussion for another place.
Thread Starter
I think it fits into here, Thread is "Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel".
Post Covid world it may be different as the old Capitalist model is gone. The total subsidising of industries and people since March has shown that. Govts have borrowed like crazy that will never be repaid. It will refocus political thought and action quite possibly at the expense of aviation.
Aviation has good points in it brought in £4 billion a year in APD, millions of tourists spending billions But it also allows UK residents to go overseas spending billions, it is not in the eyes of climate group "green".
A green agenda coupled with the mega recession to follow may result in UK Govt deciding that London is best served by 3 key airports in Greater London Area, one in the South, one in the West and one in the North East. All others closed and retasked to housing or something else.
There isn't a plan for post Covid aviation but if anybody thinks it will be the same as pre Covid then good luck with that idea. We really are in unchartered skies.
Post Covid world it may be different as the old Capitalist model is gone. The total subsidising of industries and people since March has shown that. Govts have borrowed like crazy that will never be repaid. It will refocus political thought and action quite possibly at the expense of aviation.
Aviation has good points in it brought in £4 billion a year in APD, millions of tourists spending billions But it also allows UK residents to go overseas spending billions, it is not in the eyes of climate group "green".
A green agenda coupled with the mega recession to follow may result in UK Govt deciding that London is best served by 3 key airports in Greater London Area, one in the South, one in the West and one in the North East. All others closed and retasked to housing or something else.
There isn't a plan for post Covid aviation but if anybody thinks it will be the same as pre Covid then good luck with that idea. We really are in unchartered skies.
Thread Starter
Depends on the situation but a year ago i was in Tenerife when Covid first started hitting the news media, if anybody suggested that Govt would be paying wages for massive areas of the economy, full lockdown for months on end, aviation shuttered, with unparalleled borrowing then a reminder would have been that Bojo won the recent election. Hell if anybody suggested that in Tenerife I would have taken the glass and sniffed what was inside.
Looking at Govt suggestions that council tax gets replaced with a % property tax is not a Tory idea. Think the unthinkable on Aviation, you may not be right but the old ways have changed and Covid / Climate change will be used.
In 2019 UK tourists spend £62 Billion abroad, where as overseas visitors spent £28 billion in UK. It is not unsurprising that Govt would want UK residents to spend money in UK.
Looking at Govt suggestions that council tax gets replaced with a % property tax is not a Tory idea. Think the unthinkable on Aviation, you may not be right but the old ways have changed and Covid / Climate change will be used.
In 2019 UK tourists spend £62 Billion abroad, where as overseas visitors spent £28 billion in UK. It is not unsurprising that Govt would want UK residents to spend money in UK.
One factor which we need to keep in mind regarding future demand for airport capacity is that the key metric for runways required is the number of aircraft movements. It is so easy to focus solely on passenger throughput stats. Taking the example of LGW, we may find that the runway there quickly returns to a 'fully subscribed' status but with a far greater emphasis on A320/A321/B738 no-frills ops at the expense of higher-capacity widebodied long-haul ops. Also, increased demand for executive charter as business travellers and HNWI's wishing to avoid crowded airliners could result in greater demand for runway slots at gateways such as LTN, SEN, STN, FAB, BQH and others. Whilst overall passenger throughput may face a substantial drop from 2019 levels for a number of years, the fall in demand for runway access may be rather less pronounced. We need to factor in a changing traffic mix in terms of a resurgence of smaller types using runways, rather than to presume that movements and passenger throughput stats will fall in lockstep.
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I never said it will disappear but it will become more constrained for various reasons including lingering Covid that will last years in many parts of the world in high numbers. If anyone thinks long haul is going to bounce back anytime soon it isn’t going to happen. Already Australia has said it will keep its borders closed for 2021.
Germany are now reporting a brand new mutant strain so I wouldn’t be booking that summer holiday just yet as we know how the Germans also like their summer holidays on the Med. There are bound to be other strains coming along in the coming months so there is no certainty as to when we will be set free again to travel the world although I hope for the best.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-1...66I/index.html
Germany are now reporting a brand new mutant strain so I wouldn’t be booking that summer holiday just yet as we know how the Germans also like their summer holidays on the Med. There are bound to be other strains coming along in the coming months so there is no certainty as to when we will be set free again to travel the world although I hope for the best.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-1...66I/index.html
The southern German town of Garmisch-Partenkirchen announced Monday that a new coronavirus variant has been found in samples collected from confirmed COVID-19 patients.
The mutated variant is different from any variant known to date. It was discovered in an outbreak of cluster infections in a local clinic, where 73 patients and staff were reported to have been infected. The new variant was found in samples from 35 of them.
The mutated variant is different from any variant known to date. It was discovered in an outbreak of cluster infections in a local clinic, where 73 patients and staff were reported to have been infected. The new variant was found in samples from 35 of them.
Last edited by LTNman; 19th Jan 2021 at 09:08.
There are over 4000 different mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Mutations are nothing new. The issue at the moment is that transmission is high so a vaccine resistant (which none of these mutations are) "could" come in and take advantage of the high transmission rate to spread quickly.
Once transmission is reduced, which would happen in the summer months with or without a vaccine, a new vaccine resistant mutation could not come in and spread quickly. This gives time for vaccines to be tweaked to combat the new variant.
Once a large section of the population is vaccinated then transmission will be reduced and again a new variation could not come in and spread quickly, again giving the vaccine time to be tweaked.
The SARS-Cov-2 virus is going nowhere, and will be come endemic in the human population. It will continue to kill people for decades to come, and people will be required to be vaccinated probably every year like flu.
We will just get on with life.
But as for travel, I think this summer will happen. Just probably not until the summer.
Once transmission is reduced, which would happen in the summer months with or without a vaccine, a new vaccine resistant mutation could not come in and spread quickly. This gives time for vaccines to be tweaked to combat the new variant.
Once a large section of the population is vaccinated then transmission will be reduced and again a new variation could not come in and spread quickly, again giving the vaccine time to be tweaked.
The SARS-Cov-2 virus is going nowhere, and will be come endemic in the human population. It will continue to kill people for decades to come, and people will be required to be vaccinated probably every year like flu.
We will just get on with life.
But as for travel, I think this summer will happen. Just probably not until the summer.
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racedo
Or uncharted skies? Expect something to surface from the highly-influential World Economic Forum (virtual) meeting next week and preparing for Davos in the spring. A lot of insights can be found on the WEF website. Consider:-
"How we can build back better"
"COVID-19 has prompted much reflection about our relationship with the planet. Advocates for more sustainable tourism are hoping the coming years will lead to a rethink of international travel, with more innovation and a renewed commitment to addressing climate change and crisis management. However, the likely reality is that destinations will be desperate for economic recovery and will compete vigorously for tourism dollars when borders reopen. So, if consumer behaviour trends are anything to go by, the new normal might not be too dissimilar from the old. It’s doubtful, for example, that we would tolerate flying less when travel is proven safe again. This doesn’t bode well for the planet. If international travel is going to “build back better”, communities, governments and the global tourism industry must come up with a transformative plan that is workable and helps drive traveller behaviour change and decarbonisation. The pandemic has given us a chance for a reset — we should make the most of the opportunity."
To understand more simply look at "The Great Reset" which Covid-19 has given a great opportunity to pursue. We can't escape the "climate change" implications highlighted. The full relevant article is:-
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/...ravel-tourism/
Or uncharted skies? Expect something to surface from the highly-influential World Economic Forum (virtual) meeting next week and preparing for Davos in the spring. A lot of insights can be found on the WEF website. Consider:-
"How we can build back better"
"COVID-19 has prompted much reflection about our relationship with the planet. Advocates for more sustainable tourism are hoping the coming years will lead to a rethink of international travel, with more innovation and a renewed commitment to addressing climate change and crisis management. However, the likely reality is that destinations will be desperate for economic recovery and will compete vigorously for tourism dollars when borders reopen. So, if consumer behaviour trends are anything to go by, the new normal might not be too dissimilar from the old. It’s doubtful, for example, that we would tolerate flying less when travel is proven safe again. This doesn’t bode well for the planet. If international travel is going to “build back better”, communities, governments and the global tourism industry must come up with a transformative plan that is workable and helps drive traveller behaviour change and decarbonisation. The pandemic has given us a chance for a reset — we should make the most of the opportunity."
To understand more simply look at "The Great Reset" which Covid-19 has given a great opportunity to pursue. We can't escape the "climate change" implications highlighted. The full relevant article is:-
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/...ravel-tourism/
Thread Starter
Gurnard
Good point. However WEF is viewed by many as rich millionaires, deciding what the little people will be allowed to do, while the wealthy seek to acquire more power and control. Carbon footprint of jets going to WEF never seems to be taken into consideration.
Climate change is a 1st world issue, many acrosss the world worrying about access to education and food do not have the time to worry about climate change, their basic needs come first. Discussions with teenagers and reminding them that their Primark clothes and Iphones come from people often poorly paid is not something they wish to know as it goes against the message they bombarded with.
Tourism is cheap industry, Ryanair (other airlines are available) bringing 250,000 inbound passengers a year to Carcasonne (other cities are available) provides more economic benefit to the region that French Govt investing €50 M. Assumming a spend per passenger locally of €200 each that is €50M but the multiplier is greater as passengers will use local accommodation, local businesses and local services which provides jobs.
Currently mandated minimum annual leave requirements may be looked at, at least in private sector and people encouraged to take longer breaks in an area. It is not surprising when talking to people in private sector that offering more leave V pay rise there are many people who would happily opt for more leave.
It can be done as Benidorm eliminated the cheap beach front properties or 60's and 70's to eliminate the cheap and nasty image and go for more value added tourists.
Ultimately it depends on which stanch governments want to adopt, taxing holidays may generate more cash BUT telling people they cannot spend their money as they wish is not something that will have high popularity.
Aviation is going to be challenged as never before BUT tourism is a big job creator and turning it off to suit agendas may sound greater to school kids who then get told that their 2 week holiday to Spain is off because of it and 6 weeks in UK is what summer holidays are. The future of aviation is not written but aviation will need people to fight its case.
Good point. However WEF is viewed by many as rich millionaires, deciding what the little people will be allowed to do, while the wealthy seek to acquire more power and control. Carbon footprint of jets going to WEF never seems to be taken into consideration.
Climate change is a 1st world issue, many acrosss the world worrying about access to education and food do not have the time to worry about climate change, their basic needs come first. Discussions with teenagers and reminding them that their Primark clothes and Iphones come from people often poorly paid is not something they wish to know as it goes against the message they bombarded with.
Tourism is cheap industry, Ryanair (other airlines are available) bringing 250,000 inbound passengers a year to Carcasonne (other cities are available) provides more economic benefit to the region that French Govt investing €50 M. Assumming a spend per passenger locally of €200 each that is €50M but the multiplier is greater as passengers will use local accommodation, local businesses and local services which provides jobs.
Currently mandated minimum annual leave requirements may be looked at, at least in private sector and people encouraged to take longer breaks in an area. It is not surprising when talking to people in private sector that offering more leave V pay rise there are many people who would happily opt for more leave.
It can be done as Benidorm eliminated the cheap beach front properties or 60's and 70's to eliminate the cheap and nasty image and go for more value added tourists.
Ultimately it depends on which stanch governments want to adopt, taxing holidays may generate more cash BUT telling people they cannot spend their money as they wish is not something that will have high popularity.
Aviation is going to be challenged as never before BUT tourism is a big job creator and turning it off to suit agendas may sound greater to school kids who then get told that their 2 week holiday to Spain is off because of it and 6 weeks in UK is what summer holidays are. The future of aviation is not written but aviation will need people to fight its case.
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Travel is one of the biggest eye openers for any individual .. other cultures , other climates and environments.. by all means shut it off for the plebs, but expect them to react accordingly..
naturally the upper echelons will still be traversing the globe
naturally the upper echelons will still be traversing the globe
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Aviation should prosper short-term. It needs to act responsibly and work towards cleaner ways of producing the energy required to fly though.
Paxing All Over The World
Whether it is called capitalism or communisim of ANY -ism, there will always be those who fight or cheat, their way to the top. Making money out of other humans is a fundamental human trait.