Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by Jet II

what is the point of that statement? - the US has a population of 328 million compared with Spains 46 million and 11 million for Belgium. More people live in Texas than Belgium.

The UK could consider quarantining arrivals from particular cities or regions of the USA, as some areas have been hit much harder than others, but as the USA is one country, and it is perfectly conceivable that someone from, say New York which has been the major hotspot for infections might fly into the UK from a low risk city. And anyway don't confuse deaths with infection rates. The UK is currently running at around 3,000 new infections reported each day, the USA at about 6 time that number, but their population is not 6 time larger than that of the UK.

Death rates tell you very little about what is happening now, it tells you the consequences of what happened previously, and what is more, as with the UK, when the reported death rates are compared with the different between actual deaths in the country versus the normal annual death rate I'm sure the US picture would look very much worse than it's daily reported figures. What is more, the dangerous policies on lifting of lockdowns in the USA, as compared, for example with how most European countries are proceeding make the USA a country of origin where quarantine should have been imposed weeks ago, and certainly where the UK, and other countries need to be particularly wary today and going forward.

Which country does, or doesn't get favourable treatment matters not, it is the clear avenue out of the proposal for the (unworkable) blanket quarantine policy that the UK chucked into the equation a week or so ago ought to offer a brighter outlook for airlines for the high season - unless of course the UK screws up it's own exit from lockdown.

[inOban]

Originally Posted by Jet II

what is the point of that statement? - the US has a population of 328 million compared with Spains 46 million and 11 million for Belgium. More people live in Texas than Belgium.

I was, of course, quoting rates per million population. I didn't think I needed to state that.

Can I refer readers to www.worldometers.info/coronavirus. This site logs all data as it is released.

[Jet II]

Originally Posted by inOban

I was, of course, quoting rates per million population. I didn't think I needed to state that.

Can I refer readers to www.worldometers.info/coronavirus. This site logs all data as it is released.

But infection rates dont mean anything as if you test more you find more infections and it also depends on whether the tests are actually accurate. The only reasonably accurate measure is deaths and the US are far behind the majority of European countries.

[inOban]

Originally Posted by Jet II

But infection rates dont mean anything as if you test more you find more infections and it also depends on whether the tests are actually accurate. The only reasonably accurate measure is deaths and the US are far behind the majority of European countries.

On the contrary some countries only count deaths in hospital of those confirmed by testing. Others, including the UK, include all those where it is suggested on the death certificate. I suspect that in the US, where reports come from individual states, the data vary in accuracy,.
I think that the test results are more accurate and comparable than the death data.

[racedo]

People should be used to the idea that there is no plan. There is not a single idea of the way forward just a take a guess, make a statement and see the resistance.

Any views not going along with the majority get censored.

[PAXboy]

Another reason will never know the full total is that, in the early weeks, many of the deaths at home and in care homes - did not have CV19 on the death certificate. Pneumonia and other causes, yes. The reasons for this do not matter - it happened. THAT then affected other numbers.

More importantly, as is regularly stated, as we have not tested anough people in the uk (randomised and repeated) we have no idea of the Case Fatality Rate.

Lastly, a proportion of the excess deaths now being experienced in the UK, are due to people not attending treatment sessions, people having surgery postponed, people not wanting to go to hospital for fear of catching the virus. So these deaths are 'collateral damage' of the virus and the way the UK has responded.

[LTNman]

So there are hints that Spain could open its beaches in July and that the UK government is under pressure not to introduce quarantine regulations for visitors to counties like Spain with its drop in cases.

Is this not how second waves begin? Those that travel to Spain will be risk adverse by the very fact that they are prepared to fly. Come nightfall the streets will be full and people will soon forget social distancing even if it was possible as they try to have a good time.

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by LTNman

So there are hints that Spain could open its beaches in July and that the UK government is under pressure not to introduce quarantine regulations for visitors to counties like Spain with its drop in cases.

Is this not how second waves begin? Those that travel to Spain will be risk adverse by the very fact that they are prepared to fly. Come nightfall the streets will be full and people will soon forget social distancing even if it was possible as they try to have a good time.

I'm afraid that those same parents who are bitching about their kids going back to school, and the teachers bitching about teaching them in schools, will actually be at the front of the queue for their two weeks in on the Costas.

[Mr Mac]

AT Notts
Tend to agree with you re the Costas. Also find it odd that teachers many of who have been effectively furloughed due to school being shut but on full pay will return in June for 6 weeks before taking another 6 week summer holiday. This in marked contrast to many in the private sector who have seen a significant drop in income. I watched a video on BBC website about the return of Danish kids this week which was very heart warming. I only hope UK schools, be they staff / teachers or indeed kids handle it as well.
Kind regards
Mr Mac

[AirportPlanner1]

I can see the Government’s strategy of turning the people against the teachers ably and keenly supported by a certain section of the press has had the desired effect on the above two.

What evidence is there teachers will be at the front of the queue for a couple of weeks at the Costas? Not sure where to start with that one other than anecdotal evidence from people young and older I know who take other types of holiday. But that’s not the point here.

As for the furlough comment - believe it or not most are still working - setting work, marking, being in school...some are out delivering the free school meals. Before you bang on about Denmark we’re in a very different place.

[LTNman]

Come September the virus will still be here. Do those that don’t want the schools to go back still keep their kids at home while happy to take family holidays?

[FFMAN]

Is this not how second waves begin?

if you have any evidence to support it - please post. I suspect you're guessing though to promulgate fear.

Those that travel to Spain will be risk adverse by the very fact that they are prepared to fly. Come nightfall the streets will be full and people will soon forget social distancing even if it was possible as they try to have a good time.

You do realize that the WHO guidance on 'social' distancing is 1m don't you? You also realize that the WHO guidance relates to indoors rather than outdoors? God only knows why the UK government (almost uniquely) decided to say 2m instead of 1m and in doing so rolled a whole load of viable businesses over the end of the cliff.... and scared the crap out off the unthinking population, many of whom would now quake in terror at the prospect of standing 1m next to a stranger even though the WHO says it's a safe distance. Boris is going to have to answer some hard questions (to which he will trot out the usual cliches and bluster).

[LTNman]

Wonder why so many countries insist their citizens wear masks while outside then when we don’t.

[MANFOD]

"if you have any evidence to support it - please post. I suspect you're guessing though to promulgate fear"

FFMAN: A second wave is an acknowledged risk as there is some evidence the virus is not going away anytime soon. How much of a risk is not known. Simply mentioning the possibility doesn't mean someone is trying to promulgate fear.

[Mr Mac]

Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1

I can see the Government’s strategy of turning the people against the teachers ably and keenly supported by a certain section of the press has had the desired effect on the above two.

What evidence is there teachers will be at the front of the queue for a couple of weeks at the Costas? Not sure where to start with that one other than anecdotal evidence from people young and older I know who take other types of holiday. But that’s not the point here.

As for the furlough comment - believe it or not most are still working - setting work, marking, being in school...some are out delivering the free school meals. Before you bang on about Denmark we’re in a very different place.

Airport Planner 1
Believe it or not as I am based in Germany and the UK I do not read the UK press much, apart from usually getting Sunday Times and watching BBC World. My comment was based on the obvious case that the schools are closed as is much of UK PLC, though there is now some signs of a return to work. The schools I have driven passed over the last period when I have been in the UK, had few if any cars in their respective car parks and appeared to be largely closed hence my comment. Out of the 4 local schools close to our UK house 3 are shut and apparently there are 23 children attending the one that is open, and this according to the caretaker who walks his dog past our house each evening. There must be some govt figures for the numbers working somewhere which would be interesting to see.

The comment on the Costas was not directed at teachers parse, but on the group of individuals alluded to by AT Notts in his previous post.

My comment on the Denmark video was that it was heartwarming, and that the teachers / headmaster and parents not to mention the kids seemed to have a good handle on what was required. I hope that UK schools staff and parents and indeed the children handle it as well. I would recommend you watch it, if you have not already done so.
Kind regards
Mr Mac

[Playamar2]

Many countries are trying harder than the UK to get the virus under control. Spain has fewer new cases by a factor of 5 compared to the UK, and has tested twice as many as the UK. It also has fewer deaths in the last few days compared to the UK by a factor of 5. The UK Government may well allow travellers returning from Spain an exemption from quarantine, but more to the point will Spain allow visitors from the UK into their country. The quarantine rule may well backfire on the UK Gov't as so many countries may allow visitors form countries with a poor Covid-19 rate. I notice Greece wishes to set up an air bridge with the UK, if they are exempt from quarantine.

[SWBKCB]

Post 1

Coronavirus Impact on Air TravelThis is NOT about Coronavirus, there is already a thread elsewhere

There you go, made it easy for you

https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/629...us-thread.html

[LTNman]

Those trade unions who want the country to stay in what seems like an indefinite lockdown to protect members will be at the head of the queue in complaining about tax rises for their members at the day of reckoning. Then those people will have very short memories as will the press, commentators and the population at large.

[johnnychips]

Most teachers, unless they are vulnerable or living with someone who is, want to get back to work. The teaching unions don’t have that much influence; don’t believe all you read in the Express.

[LTNman]

The reality is that HMG are already softening what is, as Michael O'Leary said yesterday, a totally unworkable system since we don't have a UK equivalent of the STASI following people's movements, and the regular police simply don't have the manpower to go knocking on doors, let alone forcing entry without a search warrant to check who is, or isn't at home.

The police would not need to enter homes at all. It would be down to the individual to come to the front door with their passport. No one is going to hide inside a home if that is where they are meant to be so have committed no crime. Fines could be imposed for those that did not identify themselves. If they were a foreigner a marker could be put against them to ban their re-entry. The threat of house calls would make many comply.