Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
But what do I know. I've only got a Ph,D in molecular biology.
Also, the Government's SAGE committee is comprised of scientists, and their purely scientific recommendations are not moderated by an input from economists (who also have differing opinions).
It just goes to show how difficult it is to make the right political decisions. I just hope any future inquiry doesn't judge the Government's decisions with 20/20 hindsight.
Paxing All Over The World
- If we had testing in place and testing that we could feel confidence in.
- If we knew which people of middle age would not experience the virus very badly.
What the long term impact on his health will be, no one knows. My partner's daughter (aged 30) had the virus and was seriously ill for a week - fortunately not requiring hospital. She is back at work (Police officer) but, again, will there be something that might be aggravated by an illness later in life?
We do not know who can 'go free' - it is an experiment and, therefore, some will die. You (and I) might be among them. If it matters, I work with the UK funeral trade so have seen and heard a few things in the last six weeks.
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Perhaps less than you think you do.
Here's a word from somebody than really does know what they're talking about.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...e-lockdown-now
Agree with the other comments on weak leadership. Boris Johnson loves using 'war' language since as a biographer of Winston Churchill he quite fancies himself filling his shoes.
More Captain Mainwaring if you ask me.
Here's a word from somebody than really does know what they're talking about.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...e-lockdown-now
Agree with the other comments on weak leadership. Boris Johnson loves using 'war' language since as a biographer of Winston Churchill he quite fancies himself filling his shoes.
More Captain Mainwaring if you ask me.
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We really are living in a truly Orwellian world.
The twisting of language for propaganda purposes - Newspeak - has been growing since Tony Blair (Blair actually being Orwell's real name btw) but it has gone in to overdrive in this crisis. 'Apart' means 'together' somehow. The most anti-social set of policies and rules are called 'social distancing'
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Precisely. You agree with everything he says because it's want you want to hear. I'm sure that you could find another pathologist who has a different opinion, but you regard his opinion as definitive.
Actually I agree with some of what he says. But not all. Sweden has had far more cases than Denmark, but the damage to its economy is almost as bad, I read.
While most people can be trusted to behave responsibly, enough cannot to mess it up not just for themselves but for everyone else. The evolutionary pressure to become less severe is a well-known phenomenon (if the disease is killing its host before it has had a chance to infect the next)does not apply here (it famously applied in the early outbreaks of myxamatosis in rabbits). And it was quite clear from the situation in northern Italy that it was quite possible for the health service to be overwhelmed.
But certainly there is an urgent need for other treatments to be restarted. Unfortunately people who should be going to hospital or their gp aren't. And the evidence suggests that very few people get infected in the open air.
Going back to the original thread topic. The airline industry has no inalienable right to exist. It is a service industry, and if the rest of the economy decides it doesn't need to fly so often, so be it. What will be interesting is to discover whether the powers that be take on board the real lesson of our difficulty in putting in place the testing, POE etc needed. Siren voices bad told us that the country could live off services and didn't need a manufacturing base. Hence the frantic search for sources elsewhere.
Actually I agree with some of what he says. But not all. Sweden has had far more cases than Denmark, but the damage to its economy is almost as bad, I read.
While most people can be trusted to behave responsibly, enough cannot to mess it up not just for themselves but for everyone else. The evolutionary pressure to become less severe is a well-known phenomenon (if the disease is killing its host before it has had a chance to infect the next)does not apply here (it famously applied in the early outbreaks of myxamatosis in rabbits). And it was quite clear from the situation in northern Italy that it was quite possible for the health service to be overwhelmed.
But certainly there is an urgent need for other treatments to be restarted. Unfortunately people who should be going to hospital or their gp aren't. And the evidence suggests that very few people get infected in the open air.
Going back to the original thread topic. The airline industry has no inalienable right to exist. It is a service industry, and if the rest of the economy decides it doesn't need to fly so often, so be it. What will be interesting is to discover whether the powers that be take on board the real lesson of our difficulty in putting in place the testing, POE etc needed. Siren voices bad told us that the country could live off services and didn't need a manufacturing base. Hence the frantic search for sources elsewhere.
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I agree with it yes but I'm putting it out there because the opinions he espouses are not part of the state narrative and people need to be told what they have been forced into, does not even have unanimity among the scientific community - even though the government and the BBC would have us believe that.
The government has conflated science with policy. It has been presented as an absolute.
Real science like any field of research has to be tried and tested, methodologies need to be peer reviewed.....
''We are following the science'' say the government - no they are not - they are following the scientific beliefs of a small number of people who think they are right - but can't prove it. Where is the science in that? One of them believed it so much he went off to see his girlfriend against the rules he'd convinced people were life or death.
There is some scientific evidence to support distancing being effective at 1m - indoors (or in a plane). That is why it is the WHO's guidance distance (indoors). It is UK government policy to go for 2m unlike most other countries on earth. So 2m is a policy; not science. 2m distance outside is also policy not science. There is no science whatsoever to demonstrate any distancing outdoors. So the UK government has effectively painted itself into a corner and in doing so terrified a nation in to submission and run the economy off the end of a cliff. Because it has got 2m embedded in the system, they can't get themselves out of it without terrifying people even more.
The government has conflated science with policy. It has been presented as an absolute.
Real science like any field of research has to be tried and tested, methodologies need to be peer reviewed.....
''We are following the science'' say the government - no they are not - they are following the scientific beliefs of a small number of people who think they are right - but can't prove it. Where is the science in that? One of them believed it so much he went off to see his girlfriend against the rules he'd convinced people were life or death.
There is some scientific evidence to support distancing being effective at 1m - indoors (or in a plane). That is why it is the WHO's guidance distance (indoors). It is UK government policy to go for 2m unlike most other countries on earth. So 2m is a policy; not science. 2m distance outside is also policy not science. There is no science whatsoever to demonstrate any distancing outdoors. So the UK government has effectively painted itself into a corner and in doing so terrified a nation in to submission and run the economy off the end of a cliff. Because it has got 2m embedded in the system, they can't get themselves out of it without terrifying people even more.
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Re inOban,
If you listen/read every news artical or expert knowledge even from those who are the very best in their background of research and medical. theirs just
so much difference of opinion, I've seen reports that a second wave will be more deadly why ? this has not happened and never happened previously with this virus so who knows just one opinion, reports seen that this will last for 12-18 months, other reports seen say this could be with us permanently and will be just another virus that will cause people to die just like Cancer, and other well known diseases that have been around for many many years.
If we carry on the way we are just for 12 months it's not just the Airlines that will go under, Tourists will not happen, hotels will go bust , bars/restraunts will go bust, cinemas/gym's/sport, shops will close down for good the list is endless this just isn't about getting on a plane and going to another country the way we are living at the moment can not keep going on this way.
People are not going to hospital now for cancer treatment, and various other treatments and this is causing illness and even more deaths because the government and press has put the fear factor into everyone, people who suffer from depression (my best mate is suffering really bad at the moment worst he's been since he started with depression 2 years ago) will lead to higher levels of suicide, domestic abuse has increased since lockdown, again putting more pressure on families, schools closed for most until at least September and they are even disagreeing now on the few that could go back in a couple of weeks time, hows it going to affect the young if there's no school for at least a year we will have the next generation growing up without education you need to look at the longer/bigger picture. more and more people everyday are loosing their jobs there will be no work for anyone except emergency service and food industry, people are not going out to buy new car or furniture for the house theirs more industries will close the list is never ending.
Oh and remember our government said if we all got immune to the virus, well let the healthy/young get immune thousand will get the disease and not even realise they've had it.
Seen report that if your from a poor background your more likely to die from the virus than if you were from a wealthy background, utterly rubbish why have African countries, central America,, Brazil etc got far less casualties than any western European country, How is all of Eastern Europe got fewer cases/deaths than just the UK? When we sent large numbers back home at the beginning of lockdown Blacks/Asians/Mixed race more at risk again utterly rubbish cases in Pakistan/India are much much lower than Europe and living conditions are much much poorer
Yes there's going to be more deaths with covid-19 but how many deaths could be saved with other illnesses if we got back to or near to normal life, nobody knows the figure ask the 10 people at the top of the field in research and you'll get 10 different answers it's just their opinion
It's widely reported and confirmed those at risk are the old and people with health issues, protect these people let the others return to normality , yes you will get the isolated case where a young person sadly passes away who was healthy and no medical problems prior, and you will also get the elderly that will survive I remember on news a 106 year old caught the virus and beat the virus,
If you listen/read every news artical or expert knowledge even from those who are the very best in their background of research and medical. theirs just
so much difference of opinion, I've seen reports that a second wave will be more deadly why ? this has not happened and never happened previously with this virus so who knows just one opinion, reports seen that this will last for 12-18 months, other reports seen say this could be with us permanently and will be just another virus that will cause people to die just like Cancer, and other well known diseases that have been around for many many years.
If we carry on the way we are just for 12 months it's not just the Airlines that will go under, Tourists will not happen, hotels will go bust , bars/restraunts will go bust, cinemas/gym's/sport, shops will close down for good the list is endless this just isn't about getting on a plane and going to another country the way we are living at the moment can not keep going on this way.
People are not going to hospital now for cancer treatment, and various other treatments and this is causing illness and even more deaths because the government and press has put the fear factor into everyone, people who suffer from depression (my best mate is suffering really bad at the moment worst he's been since he started with depression 2 years ago) will lead to higher levels of suicide, domestic abuse has increased since lockdown, again putting more pressure on families, schools closed for most until at least September and they are even disagreeing now on the few that could go back in a couple of weeks time, hows it going to affect the young if there's no school for at least a year we will have the next generation growing up without education you need to look at the longer/bigger picture. more and more people everyday are loosing their jobs there will be no work for anyone except emergency service and food industry, people are not going out to buy new car or furniture for the house theirs more industries will close the list is never ending.
Oh and remember our government said if we all got immune to the virus, well let the healthy/young get immune thousand will get the disease and not even realise they've had it.
Seen report that if your from a poor background your more likely to die from the virus than if you were from a wealthy background, utterly rubbish why have African countries, central America,, Brazil etc got far less casualties than any western European country, How is all of Eastern Europe got fewer cases/deaths than just the UK? When we sent large numbers back home at the beginning of lockdown Blacks/Asians/Mixed race more at risk again utterly rubbish cases in Pakistan/India are much much lower than Europe and living conditions are much much poorer
Yes there's going to be more deaths with covid-19 but how many deaths could be saved with other illnesses if we got back to or near to normal life, nobody knows the figure ask the 10 people at the top of the field in research and you'll get 10 different answers it's just their opinion
It's widely reported and confirmed those at risk are the old and people with health issues, protect these people let the others return to normality , yes you will get the isolated case where a young person sadly passes away who was healthy and no medical problems prior, and you will also get the elderly that will survive I remember on news a 106 year old caught the virus and beat the virus,
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I think if SCFC1EP re-reads their post or investigates what they’re saying more they may be a little embarrassed. Brazil - overtaken Spain and Italy and could beat UK too for deaths....I could mention their politics being of the Trump/Johnson variety but best to leave it there.
Eastern Europe - poor....hopefully just ill informed rather than British exceptionalism. As nations yes they are ‘poorer’ than the UK on GDP, incomes etc but when talking about poorer communities in this context it means deprivation etc and the links to poor health that brings. Not to mention disproportionate numbers of BME staff in the most exposed health roles and other key worker roles who live in larger cities and ride around on more risky public transport.
India...brought in hard line curfew. So not comparable with UK where we’ve been lax.
Eastern Europe - poor....hopefully just ill informed rather than British exceptionalism. As nations yes they are ‘poorer’ than the UK on GDP, incomes etc but when talking about poorer communities in this context it means deprivation etc and the links to poor health that brings. Not to mention disproportionate numbers of BME staff in the most exposed health roles and other key worker roles who live in larger cities and ride around on more risky public transport.
India...brought in hard line curfew. So not comparable with UK where we’ve been lax.
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I could mention their politics being of the Trump/Johnson variety but best to leave it there.
If you wish others to take your postings seriously, you need address reality. Groundless sweeping statements such as that above do nothing to impress. And you've been called out for this type of shallow nonsense before.
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Looks like the UK 14day quarantine is in chaos as Transport Sec Grant Shapps says the govt is in "active discussions" over introducing so-called 'air bridges' - allowing people entering the UK from countries with an 'R' lower than 1.0 to be exempt from the proposed two-week quarantine. Well that means just about every country in Europe would be exempt. Spain now has an 'R' of 0.77 and that has been one of the worst affected.
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Looks like the UK 14day quarantine is in chaos
I see France has retaliated by insisting that Spanish citizens quarantine after French citizens where told to quarantine by the Spanish.
Looks like the UK 14day quarantine is in chaos as Transport Sec Grant Shapps says the govt is in "active discussions" over introducing so-called 'air bridges' - allowing people entering the UK from countries with an 'R' lower than 1.0 to be exempt from the proposed two-week quarantine. Well that means just about every country in Europe would be exempt. Spain now has an 'R' of 0.77 and that has been one of the worst affected.
Or will our government allow people in but keep us imprisoned on our own little island ?
Another perspective:
https://unherd.com/2020/05/should-we...tion-industry/
https://unherd.com/2020/05/should-we...tion-industry/
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LTNMan. The initial plan was that Ireland would be exempt then France was added. Then France wasn't exempt and now quite a few more countries would be exempt. The Gov't are changing the goal posts so often they will probably change again before implementation. With Spain there was no messing about and no country was exempt. I agree other countries may ask UK travellers to quarantine if our rate of infection is high, in a tit for tat response and the UK Government could have no complaints,
LTNMan. The initial plan was that Ireland would be exempt then France was added. Then France wasn't exempt and now quite a few more countries would be exempt. The Gov't are changing the goal posts so often they will probably change again before implementation. With Spain there was no messing about and no country was exempt. I agree other countries may ask UK travellers to quarantine if our rate of infection is high, in a tit for tat response and the UK Government could have no complaints,
The reality is that HMG are already softening what is, as Michael O'Leary said yesterday, a totally unworkable system since we don't have a UK equivalent of the STASI following people's movements, and the regular police simply don't have the manpower to go knocking on doors, let alone forcing entry without a search warrant to check who is, or isn't at home. The concept that travel between some countries may quarantine-free, as their infection rates are acceptably low opens the door for significant backtracking, and with pressure from the travel and tourism industries may well allow holidays to the Med., Adriatic and central Europe, as well as inbound tourism from the likes of China. What will be interesting to watch is if a "political decision" were to be made prematurely to lift quarantine on US arrival, under pressure from the Trump administration, and the UK putting the interests of "the greatest ever trade deal" ahead of public safety.
The prospects for leisure travel for the high season for the likes of Jet2 and TUI probably look a little brighter.
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Given that the US has a lower rate of Covid death and infection than the UK and most of Europe (281 deaths per million compared with 523 for the UK, 529 for Italy, 593 for Spain, 797 for Belgium etc etc) who is putting trade above safety?
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As has been extensively discussed on this forum, death rates between countries aren't comparable as different countries include, eg suspected cases. Even infection rates depend on who is targeted for testing. But the number of infections in the US has overtaken all of Europe except Spain and Belgium (but will exceed B in a few days).
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what is the point of that statement? - the US has a population of 328 million compared with Spains 46 million and 11 million for Belgium. More people live in Texas than Belgium.