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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 5th Jun 2020, 09:12
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Spanish Covid Deaths
As far as Spain as a whole goes, the Ministry of Health has reported this Thursday of five new deaths from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, bringing the total to 27,133. According to their figures, 56 deaths have occurred in the last seven days. The report also shows that 195 infections have occurred in the last 24 hours, compared to 219 the previous day.
Posted on June 4th 2020

Last edited by ericlday; 5th Jun 2020 at 09:14. Reason: Update
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 09:23
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The ONS data is much more positive today.

Cases more than halved over a week in mid- end of May and down from est 8000 a day to 5500 est in the past week.

The R rate in the community I assume would actually be a lot lower than we are led to believe as the reported R is including care homes and hospitals isn’t it? Would be interested to see that worked out.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 09:25
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@BigDoris - maybe the chart from worldometers.info gives a fuller picture. There appears to have been some correcting going on with the large negative value on one day in late May, so that may also be true for May 26.

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Old 5th Jun 2020, 10:42
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Originally Posted by inOban
Paywall. Can't access
Typing the title of the article into google should resolve that. Essentially Spain are only now reporting deaths that occurred in the previous 24 hours rather than deaths reported/registered in the last 24 hours as we do now and as they did previously.

What I’m saying is, you can change how you report the numbers to suit whatever outcome it is that you’re after.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 10:47
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Originally Posted by Hermite
@BigDoris - maybe the chart from worldometers.info gives a fuller picture. There appears to have been some correcting going on with the large negative value on one day in late May, so that may also be true for May 26.
What concerns me most is that quite clearly we are going in the right direction but the governments daily briefings don’t really show the scale of that improvement. Between government and the media, we have a nation now paralysed by fear, much of it in my opinion, NOW, not justified. The data is all openly available for anyone that wants to look beyond gov and media. Yes, I expect to be shouted at for having that opinion.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 11:08
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Spanish deaths revelled out from my own records plus the Spain in English website.
16/05/20 87, 17/05/20 59, 18/05/20 83, 19/05/20 95, 20/05/20 48, 21/05/20 56, 22/05/20 48, 23/05/20 70, 24/05/20 50, 25/05/20 35, 26/05/20 39,
27/05/20 38, 28/05/20 39, 29/05/20 43, 30/05/20 39, 31/05/20 35, 01/06/20 34, 02/06/20 63, 03/06/20 56.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 11:22
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Originally Posted by BigDoris
Typing the title of the article into google should resolve that. Essentially Spain are only now reporting deaths that occurred in the previous 24 hours rather than deaths reported/registered in the last 24 hours as we do now and as they did previously.

What I’m saying is, you can change how you report the numbers to suit whatever outcome it is that you’re after.
I think that we also changed our reporting on June 1st. We reported a low number?111 because the other deaths were allocated to the day that they actually occurred - with the earlier data being revised upwards. That gave a discrepancy between the government number and the higher figure in worldometers, which they later revised.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 11:38
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Originally Posted by inOban
I think that we also changed our reporting on June 1st. We reported a low number?111 because the other deaths were allocated to the day that they actually occurred - with the earlier data being revised upwards. That gave a discrepancy between the government number and the higher figure in worldometers, which they later revised.
You are correct, on that day, the UK included backdated pillar 2 ,i.e. commercial test centre positives from 24th April to 31st May. So yes, ‘suddenly’ another 400+ deaths came from ‘somewhere’. My biggest gripe is the media totally misrepresenting why it was done and how. That said, government could have helped themselves if they explained it rather than hide it in a tiny footnote.

However we have not changed how we report daily deaths. Spain changed their reporting method on 27th May hence the huge dive in numbers. The UK would see the same if we went the same way albeit not quite as low at this stage.


If nothing else, we have been somewhat consistent albeit poor in reporting and the media have latched onto that just as they will with ‘R’ and ONS daily infection estimates.

It’s a shame really that there is no agreed world wide reporting standard despite having the WHO and closer to home, EU standards on everything else.

My overall point remains the same, we most definitely are going in the right direction. We now need the government and media to start helping improve public confidence as that will take significant time now.

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Old 5th Jun 2020, 11:40
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Originally Posted by Hermite
@BigDoris - maybe the chart from worldometers.info gives a fuller picture. There appears to have been some correcting going on with the large negative value on one day in late May, so that may also be true for May 26.
Spain changed their reporting methodology on 27th May hence seemingly bringing people back from the dead there and their death figures nose diving after that. Still, they have made progress like most of the world is doing.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 12:02
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I notice the Government are telling us they have reached the 200,000 tests a day now. Who believes this number ? To get a test you must currently be a key worker or have symptoms ?

If they maintain that rate, that's one hell of a lot of people with symptoms, in one week 1,400,000 people with suspected COVID symptoms ????

As per the sudden decrease in Spanish deaths, again how did that happen, number crunching at it's best !
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 12:12
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Originally Posted by helipixman
I notice the Government are telling us they have reached the 200,000 tests a day now. Who believes this number ? To get a test you must currently be a key worker or have symptoms ?

If they maintain that rate, that's one hell of a lot of people with symptoms, in one week 1,400,000 people with suspected COVID symptoms ????

As per the sudden decrease in Spanish deaths, again how did that happen, number crunching at it's best !
Two things; first I believe that included in these figures are ca 10,000 people involved in a week, becoming monthly, random study and second; it will include a number of people who have had testing kits sent out to them, how many return them completed? The figures don't represent tests analysed daily.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 12:43
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
Two things; first I believe that included in these figures are ca 10,000 people involved in a week, becoming monthly, random study and second; it will include a number of people who have had testing kits sent out to them, how many return them completed? The figures don't represent tests analysed daily.
Correct.

Helipixman - remember too that it is also tests carried/sent out which does not tally 1:1 with people tested. A bit of a fudge there I admit. However, even then when tests come back they are largely coming back negative. Even better that whilst testing has increased, positive cases are decreasing.

For anyone else, worth also having a look here at the death and positive tests by date of occurrence. Granted only shows NHS/PHE lab confirmed tests but these are the most consistently reported and amongst the more ‘exposed ‘key workers’:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Whatever way you look at it, again, all trends are solid and in the right direction. We are getting there in spite of some (lots of) government and public floundering.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 12:58
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Originally Posted by helipixman
I notice the Government are telling us they have reached the 200,000 tests a day now. Who believes this number ? To get a test you must currently be a key worker or have symptoms ?

If they maintain that rate, that's one hell of a lot of people with symptoms, in one week 1,400,000 people with suspected COVID symptoms ????

As per the sudden decrease in Spanish deaths, again how did that happen, number crunching at it's best !
Given the low number of positive cases coming back, I'd also assume some people are taking the piss as they don't ask you to prove your symptoms, some others are probably hypochondriacs and the rest actually genuine.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 13:30
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Originally Posted by BigDoris
Given the low number of positive cases coming back, I'd also assume some people are taking the piss as they don't ask you to prove your symptoms, some others are probably hypochondriacs and the rest actually genuine.
There is very genuine concern that there are a lot of false negatives reported when people self-administer the swab.

When the swab is placed up the nose, it must be placed quite deeply to the point where the person feels very uncomfortable and starts to tear-up.

When people self-administer, they tend to not place it far enough up the nose.

It seems IAG is considering challenging the quarantine. Any legal eagles have any idea how that will go or is it just noise?
https://news.sky.com/story/iag-chief...uture-12000804
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 13:38
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Originally Posted by helipixman
If they maintain that rate, that's one hell of a lot of people with symptoms, in one week 1,400,000 people with suspected COVID symptoms ????
Because in a nation that has been paralyzed by fear of instant death by the media, 'COVID symptoms' can include anything from a headache, hot flushes ladies, a common cold or even hay fever.
I also wonder why the media has latched on to the opinion piece 'x number of negative tests could actually be positive' whilst overlooking the similar likelihood of 'x number of positive tests could actually be negative'. Whatever happened to balanced reporting? - the media definitely has its own agenda. It jumps on the negative and pumps it up and downplays the positive and pours scepticism all over it. It gives airtime to people who say the lockdown is ending too early and dismisses those who think it's not quick enough.
It now publishes opinion as fact.
This is the real 'Project Fear'
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 13:51
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Originally Posted by RedDragonFlyer
There is very genuine concern that there are a lot of false negatives reported when people self-administer the swab.

When the swab is placed up the nose, it must be placed quite deeply to the point where the person feels very uncomfortable and starts to tear-up.

When people self-administer, they tend to not place it far enough up the nose.

It seems IAG is considering challenging the quarantine. Any legal eagles have any idea how that will go or is it just noise?
https://news.sky.com/story/iag-chief...uture-12000804
True but in the absence of rising hospital admissions and deaths that either supports the theory that in the case of up to 20% false negatives:

a) most suffer mildly or not at all
b) suggests we should expect an increase in hospital admissions and deaths through unreported cases and spreading.

So far the data points to the former. I would also argue, in agreement with your point on the false negatives, that the we need to stop with these home testing kits, certainly at the current level and think about how else to give those people access to testing rather than using it to help the governments targets.

As for BA, I'm surprised no business (aviation or not) has publicly considered this already. Can't see it going anywhere but worth a punt I suppose.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 14:14
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Turkey suggesting they are close to an air bridge agreement with the U.K. with a tentative date of July 15th for holidays there.
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 14:21
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Originally Posted by helipixman
I notice the Government are telling us they have reached the 200,000 tests a day now. Who believes this number ? To get a test you must currently be a key worker or have symptoms ?
Incorrect, anyone who thinks they might have it can now order a test
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Old 5th Jun 2020, 15:16
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Took my daughter for a test at Manchester Airport south car park on Monday, lots of testers and no punters except us. Test result by text 24 hours later - negative. Wondering why the govt does not deploy the test capacity better, eg send some of the staff out in a van to care homes or do some sampling of an area to get a background picture?
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Old 6th Jun 2020, 21:34
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Originally Posted by LTNman
Incorrect, anyone who thinks they might have it can now order a test
True

A colleague last weekend was unwell. Test was done within 12 hours plus tracking and tracing by employer and results within 48 hrs. He ill just he hasn't got Covid, just some other ****ty thing that is hanging around.
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