Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32
This is not going to be a pleasant journey for anyone in aviation in 2020 - hold tight and I pray you all to keep your jobs! Roll the dice!
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Originally Posted by alm1
Reportedly Israel banned all tourists from Italy from entry. This should start affecting European airlines now in a major way.
Still in my country there are plenty of populist calls to ban air travel from Italy. We also have a basketball match here in my city on Friday with Milan team with usual attendance of 15000. This is still not canceled but there are plenty of calls to not allow any fans from Italy.
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5 million people caught the regular flu this winter in Italy and 400 died. Long before we had heard of CV. If paranoia or overreacting make people apply better hygiene habits it can't be a bad thing.
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I think the world is attempting to take reasonable precautions over what could be something small / medium or large.
Best case is nobody dies in uk, medium case is 15,000 infected and 300 deaths, worst case is 15 million infected and 1 million die. Faced with this Governments are trying to manage a line between everything is ok and let's all panic.
Best case is nobody dies in uk, medium case is 15,000 infected and 300 deaths, worst case is 15 million infected and 1 million die. Faced with this Governments are trying to manage a line between everything is ok and let's all panic.
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And then if the population panics how many people will want to fly? Already hotels are being quarantined in Tenerife and Austria. If there was a major outbreak in say London what would happen to UK bound tourism? No wonder airline stocks are plummeting. Let’s hope this drops off when the weather warms.
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I have to say I wouldn't book a holiday in a few months at the moment - not so much because of the disease but because of the potential my holiday won't go as planned due to restrictions etc. Wait and see. Not for 10 years though - six months to a year maybe
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I think your view will be the one picked by many people, lets wait and see, hold back, then stay at home on the basis of better safe than sorry. This will be disastrous for travel industry who will have to lay off thousands and economically will impact quite a lot of countries.
Ultimately it is about confidence, when people start to worry then they alter behaviour, like in a recession when even though job safe, not in financial difficulty people decide not to renew the 2 cars and wait another year or two, hold back on consumer spending.
Potentially a real negative could be xenophobia where immediately anybody foreign looking is suspected of being a carrier, this is irrational but people act irrationally when afraid of the inknown.
Ultimately it is about confidence, when people start to worry then they alter behaviour, like in a recession when even though job safe, not in financial difficulty people decide not to renew the 2 cars and wait another year or two, hold back on consumer spending.
Potentially a real negative could be xenophobia where immediately anybody foreign looking is suspected of being a carrier, this is irrational but people act irrationally when afraid of the inknown.
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There is one more problem. I have checked my travel insurance - epidemics and pandemics are specifically not covered. Getting stuck somewhere could very soon end up very expensive.
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Originally Posted by LTNman
And then if the population panics how many people will want to fly?
If there was a major outbreak in say London what would happen to UK bound tourism?
Let’s hope this drops off when the weather warms.
BUT if doesn't and Govt have to go for a shut down, what happens ?
People won't be working so mortgages get unpaid, banks will demand payment, well in reality nobody working in banks so nothing will be happening, what happens to cash / food etc.
Almost like the 1930 great depresssion again. Fingers crossed weather kills virus and no other Black Swan event occurs but Locusts in Africa / Asia could be interesting.
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True BUT getting stuck somewhere may not be the worst thing to happen. Imagine you stuck in a place, flying in and out banned, home place becomes a hot zone and you in a place which is infection free.
The how they hell am I going to pay for it becomes less of a worry and you just hope on the kindness of the people where you are. If you have a skill which helps the then even better but even if not the people there have 2 options. One is kick all the non natives out, two include them as all in the same boat. Humanity has dealt with this before in times of war or pandemic.
Those who kick everybody out will find history judging them very harshly but I have a belief in people, look at the thousands who shielded people in WW2 and other events.
The how they hell am I going to pay for it becomes less of a worry and you just hope on the kindness of the people where you are. If you have a skill which helps the then even better but even if not the people there have 2 options. One is kick all the non natives out, two include them as all in the same boat. Humanity has dealt with this before in times of war or pandemic.
Those who kick everybody out will find history judging them very harshly but I have a belief in people, look at the thousands who shielded people in WW2 and other events.
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My daughter has booked a holiday to Minorca a few days ago. This health event is moving so fast I would suggested now that she deferred any plans for travel outside the U.K. Not so much about the fear of catching the virus but getting caught up in a lock down. So who is funding the people trapped in their hotel complex in Tenerife?
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Reasonable because always can take another holiday and at the moment it is reaction to events.
Ultimately Spanish Govt as they are preventing you from leaving hotel for Public Health reasons. Same way as people shut off in Liverpool / Milton Keynes after flying in from China.
The nightmare scenario is people flying in via 3rd and 4th countries / cities. Keep quiet about any illness, not disclosing how they came to a country and leaving a trail that cannot be quickly followed.
I can't remember the book but was mass infection in the US, person visiting LA but disease spread from Las Vegas, person had joined someone else for a weekend in Vegas, never used any cards to spend money / registered at a hotel. After weekend back to LA and they died there but gap was why not disease in LA but in Vegas.
So who is funding the people trapped in their hotel complex in Tenerife?
The nightmare scenario is people flying in via 3rd and 4th countries / cities. Keep quiet about any illness, not disclosing how they came to a country and leaving a trail that cannot be quickly followed.
I can't remember the book but was mass infection in the US, person visiting LA but disease spread from Las Vegas, person had joined someone else for a weekend in Vegas, never used any cards to spend money / registered at a hotel. After weekend back to LA and they died there but gap was why not disease in LA but in Vegas.
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I've just become aware of a large multi-national company, with employee numbers that run well into 6 figures that has instituted an immediate work travel ban (with the exception of getting people already traveling home). This is when the financial consequences for aviation really kick in.
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If it is a one off and nobody follows then maybe, however likely the message will permeate quickly and others will do similar.
HR friend did a risk analysis of 3 people travelling to Taiwan last week. Risk was acceptable and they travelled. She has been in Northern Italy twice in last 2 weeks so it was an Oh SH*T.
HR friend did a risk analysis of 3 people travelling to Taiwan last week. Risk was acceptable and they travelled. She has been in Northern Italy twice in last 2 weeks so it was an Oh SH*T.
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I think the ecnomic impact could be considerable BUT Govt and Central Banks may take a freeze on loan repayments etc to prevent lots of places folding. Banks foreclosing on lots of businesses like 10 years ago happened because there were others who could buy or pick up the slack. When the whole economy is like that it is a different position.
