Manston
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Wouldn't take long to do the project appraisal on this: 300m investment paid back through the landing charges of 'up to' 14 cargo planes a day. You would need a Fedex and / or DHL operation to make 14 a day and that's not going to happen unless you tempt them there by letting them land for free; and even that wouldn't be enough probably, due to the 'back end of nowhere' location.
And relying on pure freighters is a sure fire way to burn the 300m. Pure fantasy project.
Remember the old aviation adage: 'the best way to make a small fortune in aviation is to start with a large one'.
And relying on pure freighters is a sure fire way to burn the 300m. Pure fantasy project.
Remember the old aviation adage: 'the best way to make a small fortune in aviation is to start with a large one'.
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OC37
In 2014 the airport handled 44,000 tonnes of cargo with Cargolux accounting for 50% of that figure. The argument then was that as the Locos take up London landing slots the cargo gets pushed out of London. The argument still stands today (unless you are going counter by blathering on about COVID).
Why the negativity? It's not your dosh being invested.
In 2014 the airport handled 44,000 tonnes of cargo with Cargolux accounting for 50% of that figure. The argument then was that as the Locos take up London landing slots the cargo gets pushed out of London. The argument still stands today (unless you are going counter by blathering on about COVID).
Why the negativity? It's not your dosh being invested.
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I've been watching Dragon's Den 
asdf1234,
Even to cover, let's say, opening/operational hours of 0600L-2300L Monday thru Sunday MSE is going to need to employ some 4 watches of fire fighters and 4 watches of Air Traffic Control personnel, it's also going to need to employ some 4 watches of loading staff along with some passenger handling staff, 4 watches of refuellers, then it's going to need to employ administrative personnel, a couple of maintenance type guys to maintain the vehicles and equipment, some electricians, some cleaners, a groundsman/gardener and that's just the Indians, MSE can't have Indians without having some Chiefs so then come all the Duty Officers, junior and senior managers etc.
So what would you estimate MSE's annual salaries bill to be?
Then there comes ground rent, rates or council tax or whatever, water, electricity, gas, fuel for vehicles and equipment, general maintenance and wear and tear expenses etc.
So what would you estimate MSE's annual bill for these to be?
Now, if as you suggest, in 2014 Cargolux generates 22,000 tonnes of cargo may I presume that was 5 x B747F's per week, you say other carriers generated a further 22,000 tonnes of cargo so perhaps we may round the total freighter movements of 2014 up to an average of 14 per week, 2 per day!
What would you estimate the net profit to be of 730 freighters and 44,000 tonnes of cargo per annum?
How can anyone in their right mind value such a business at £300 million?
You suggested that I am being negative but I'm not, if you read back thru my posts I am actually suggesting positivity, RiverOak have suggested 14 freighters per day yet you have suggested only 2 freighters per day, and I'm the one being negative?
MSE is never going to become viable on air freight alone, they need to think outside of the box and to what an airfield in such a remote location can do to market itself for business and I've suggested a maintenance facility, general aviation, I had a look on GE at Lydd yesterday and visible on the ground were 14 singles, 6 twins and 1 rotary, what are they doing there, why aren't RiverOak marketing for general aviation, maintenance rather than freight and perhaps some passenger services as an aside?
I used to drive semi-regularly from S. Wales to Ramsgate and to get there was the southern M25 wasn't good, the drive necessitates the M25, M20, then a cut thru past the old Detling airfield on the A249 to join the M2, then the A roads after the end of the M2, and that was in a car, trucks don't like going thru thru the gears, they like to, as best as possible, get up to cruising speed and stay there.
I wish Manston well but it's going to need more than just air freight to achieve it!
asdf1234,
Even to cover, let's say, opening/operational hours of 0600L-2300L Monday thru Sunday MSE is going to need to employ some 4 watches of fire fighters and 4 watches of Air Traffic Control personnel, it's also going to need to employ some 4 watches of loading staff along with some passenger handling staff, 4 watches of refuellers, then it's going to need to employ administrative personnel, a couple of maintenance type guys to maintain the vehicles and equipment, some electricians, some cleaners, a groundsman/gardener and that's just the Indians, MSE can't have Indians without having some Chiefs so then come all the Duty Officers, junior and senior managers etc.
So what would you estimate MSE's annual salaries bill to be?
Then there comes ground rent, rates or council tax or whatever, water, electricity, gas, fuel for vehicles and equipment, general maintenance and wear and tear expenses etc.
So what would you estimate MSE's annual bill for these to be?
Now, if as you suggest, in 2014 Cargolux generates 22,000 tonnes of cargo may I presume that was 5 x B747F's per week, you say other carriers generated a further 22,000 tonnes of cargo so perhaps we may round the total freighter movements of 2014 up to an average of 14 per week, 2 per day!
What would you estimate the net profit to be of 730 freighters and 44,000 tonnes of cargo per annum?
How can anyone in their right mind value such a business at £300 million?
You suggested that I am being negative but I'm not, if you read back thru my posts I am actually suggesting positivity, RiverOak have suggested 14 freighters per day yet you have suggested only 2 freighters per day, and I'm the one being negative?
MSE is never going to become viable on air freight alone, they need to think outside of the box and to what an airfield in such a remote location can do to market itself for business and I've suggested a maintenance facility, general aviation, I had a look on GE at Lydd yesterday and visible on the ground were 14 singles, 6 twins and 1 rotary, what are they doing there, why aren't RiverOak marketing for general aviation, maintenance rather than freight and perhaps some passenger services as an aside?
I used to drive semi-regularly from S. Wales to Ramsgate and to get there was the southern M25 wasn't good, the drive necessitates the M25, M20, then a cut thru past the old Detling airfield on the A249 to join the M2, then the A roads after the end of the M2, and that was in a car, trucks don't like going thru thru the gears, they like to, as best as possible, get up to cruising speed and stay there.
I wish Manston well but it's going to need more than just air freight to achieve it!
Last edited by OC37; 22nd Jul 2020 at 10:53.
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If the proposed cargo flights are limited to 10,000/annum (5,000 landings/annum - 14 per day), what are the proposed annual movement limits for everything else - airline, business aviation, GA, MRO visitors etc? Assuming the night curfew is from 23:00 to 06:00hrs (which is pretty hopeless for a great chunk of prospective cargo activity).
"MSE is going to need to employ some 4 watches of fire fighters and 4 watches of Air Traffic Control personnel, it's also going to need to employ some 4 watches of loading staff along with some passenger handling staff, 4 watches of refuellers, then it's going to need to employ administrative personnel, a couple of maintenance type guys to maintain the vehicles and equipment, some electricians, some cleaners, a groundsman/gardener and that's just the Indians, MSE can't have Indians without having some Chiefs so then come all the Duty Officers, junior and senior managers etc."
pity multi-tasking went out of fashion... I can think of some airfields in the US and Australia that get by with a total staff of 4 or 5
pity multi-tasking went out of fashion... I can think of some airfields in the US and Australia that get by with a total staff of 4 or 5
I can think of some airfields in the US and Australia that get by with a total staff of 4 or 5
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OC37
Yes, I know the answer to how much ATC and fire cover will cost at Manston. And I know how much it costs to employ cargo handlers. Whilst I could enter into the detailed debate and start quoting facts and figures I think you miss the point. Start with looking at the team assembled to bring this project to fruition. Collectively do they have more, or less experience than you when it comes to investing in, and running airports?
Do you think that anyone contemplating spending £300m on a project would do so on a whim? Or would do so without knowing for certain the detailed history of the night flights situation, or would do so without knowing which cargo operators would support the airport?
Yes, I know the answer to how much ATC and fire cover will cost at Manston. And I know how much it costs to employ cargo handlers. Whilst I could enter into the detailed debate and start quoting facts and figures I think you miss the point. Start with looking at the team assembled to bring this project to fruition. Collectively do they have more, or less experience than you when it comes to investing in, and running airports?
Do you think that anyone contemplating spending £300m on a project would do so on a whim? Or would do so without knowing for certain the detailed history of the night flights situation, or would do so without knowing which cargo operators would support the airport?
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As for the commercial viability and as were using rough guesses, they could well generate upwards of £17m per year just from landing fees (aero charges). Add in parking fees for long-stay aircraft and non-aero charges (eg handling charges, storage, customs clearance and other related charges) and you could be looking at more than double that. Not a bad little business that.
As for B747-8F performance, at 85% of max payload and 30% of max fuel, it weighs 98% of its max landing weight and requires 2,300m of runway available. For take-off, at MTOW it would require 3,000m of runway so given MSE is only 2750m, either they need to extend the runway by 300m or limit the B747-8F to 90% of its MTOW. Even at 90% MTOW, you’re looking at either 15% of max payload with full fuel or 100% of max payload with 40% fuel (it can’t carry full fuel AND full payload) which would get you to Moscow or Istanbul. In reality, it would likely be loaded to 85% payload weight due to physical size & density of the cargo. So MSE can offer decent range from its runway even for a heavy B747-8F.
Just saying...
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All of which explains why MSE was a runaway success during 16 years of ops and why it can't possibly fail during the coming decades of recession and large amounts of spare capacity at every other airport.
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How? By lifting up the entire airfield and moving it to a suitable location? This is a runway built for short range European ops in two world wars. If the runway didn't exist, would you build one in this location?
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[QUOTE=asdf1234;10843679] Start with looking at the team assembled to bring this project to fruition. Collectively do they have more, or less experience than you when it comes to investing in, and running airports?
I don't know, might you care to reitterate who the Manston resurrection team members are and what there experiences are.
Just curious though as to how many airports they have previously run, what has happened to those airports and why are these people still not employed at those airports?
Do you really want me to answer that?
I do happen to have worked in the air cargo sector, there are not so many scheduled service cargo operators around and are more often than not a spin-off from the national carriers, if Manston has anywhere near enough such carriers to boast 5,000 aircraft per annum then I shall eat my hat.
Aside from scheduled carriers air cargo is very much an adhoc market, many a fly-by-night operator operating aircraft under a flag of convenience, lacking any interested regulating authority regarding maintenance, crew regulations etc., such operators start-up and go bust regularly, those around this year may not be around next year so no use for planning purposes and they only fly if the phone rings, it might be flowers from Kenya, pineapples from Ghana, cod from Iceland but if there is such a volume for adhoc cargo in UK then why are there no UK resident adhoc cargo operators?
I don't know, might you care to reitterate who the Manston resurrection team members are and what there experiences are.
Just curious though as to how many airports they have previously run, what has happened to those airports and why are these people still not employed at those airports?
Aside from scheduled carriers air cargo is very much an adhoc market, many a fly-by-night operator operating aircraft under a flag of convenience, lacking any interested regulating authority regarding maintenance, crew regulations etc., such operators start-up and go bust regularly, those around this year may not be around next year so no use for planning purposes and they only fly if the phone rings, it might be flowers from Kenya, pineapples from Ghana, cod from Iceland but if there is such a volume for adhoc cargo in UK then why are there no UK resident adhoc cargo operators?
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As for the commercial viability and as were using rough guesses, they could well generate upwards of £17m per year just from landing fees (aero charges). Add in parking fees for long-stay aircraft and non-aero charges (eg handling charges, storage, customs clearance and other related charges) and you could be looking at more than double that. Not a bad little business that.
As for B747-8F performance, at 85% of max payload and 30% of max fuel, it weighs 98% of its max landing weight and requires 2,300m of runway available. For take-off, at MTOW it would require 3,000m of runway so given MSE is only 2750m, either they need to extend the runway by 300m or limit the B747-8F to 90% of its MTOW. Even at 90% MTOW, you’re looking at either 15% of max payload with full fuel or 100% of max payload with 40% fuel (it can’t carry full fuel AND full payload) which would get you to Moscow or Istanbul. In reality, it would likely be loaded to 85% payload weight due to physical size & density of the cargo. So MSE can offer decent range from its runway even for a heavy B747-8F
The reality is that freighters shall need to operate to the N. America eastern seaboard such as Gander or Bangor/Maine, to somewhere like Novosibirsk for a fuel stop en-route to Asia, to Middle East, to Africa etc. and Manston's 2,748m runway simply isn't long enough to achieve these!
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The director of RSP is the same person who was director of Wiggins/Planestation in 1998/1999 when Manston was sold into private hands by the MOD. My interest in this matter is professional but this is an anonymous forum and with respect this should not be your concern.
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Looking at the RSP website they have a lot of grown-ups in the assembled team of consultants and advisors so will know what it takes to get back up and running and then the running costs thereafter, no doubts there in terms of the knowledge base within the team.
The questions are what will it really costs to get back up and running - there is zero infrastructure, everything ripped out and flogged off when it closed, you can't just flick the lights on, there are no lights! There is literally nothing there aside from shells of buildings and huge volumes of concrete and tarmac. Timescales to be up and operational is a huge grey area, I suspect theory and practice will be miles apart.
Then the business model on a maximum of 14 freighter rotations a day has to be supplemented by a pile of other revenue streams, what are those likely to be - geography has a very significant impact on that viability?
The questions are what will it really costs to get back up and running - there is zero infrastructure, everything ripped out and flogged off when it closed, you can't just flick the lights on, there are no lights! There is literally nothing there aside from shells of buildings and huge volumes of concrete and tarmac. Timescales to be up and operational is a huge grey area, I suspect theory and practice will be miles apart.
Then the business model on a maximum of 14 freighter rotations a day has to be supplemented by a pile of other revenue streams, what are those likely to be - geography has a very significant impact on that viability?