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Old 5th Mar 2018, 15:28
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US - UK Bilateral Open Skies

According to The Irish Times, quoting the FT, 5th March 2018, the early discussions on an open skies agreement between the UK and US post 2019 are not to the liking of the UK.

One person attending the London meetings to “put Humpty Dumpty back together” said: “You can’t just scratch out ‘EU’ and put in ‘UK’.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ence-1.3415499

JAS
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 15:35
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There's a surprise
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 15:42
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The London route is such a money spinner for US carrier I reckon you can and they will do just that.
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 17:39
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If UK carriers are 'locked out' wouldn't that also effect Delta and American Airlines because of their joint ventures with Virgin and British Airways?
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 18:39
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There’ll be pressure from the US to limit a certain Nordic named airline and it’s expansion from the U.K. to the USA.
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 19:09
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AMERICA FIRST! AMERICA FIRST!

Hello... British Airways (United States) LLC.
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 19:45
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39
AMERICA FIRST! AMERICA FIRST!

Hello... British Airways (United States) LLC.
Well Delta Airlines does own 49% of Virgin Atlantic so American Airlines could do the same with IAG!
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Old 5th Mar 2018, 23:56
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As with any trade deals the smaller ‘partner’ will always come off worse.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 03:15
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The Chancellor was speaking up about the problems for the industry once !st April goes by and it's less than 365 days. Sadly, the folks who have seen the problem from day one, have not been able to get their voice heard.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 07:59
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The Chancellor was speaking up about the problems for the industry once !st April goes by and it's less than 365 days. Sadly, the folks who have seen the problem from day one, have not been able to get their voice heard.
No one gagged anyone.
The reality is US/UK is already open to and operated by US and UK airlines. Norwegian fly UK registered B787s on a UK AOC, they also fly Irish registered 737-MAXs on an Irish AOC. Like EZY, they could move the aircraft to the sister AOC and G- them.
What real changes are being threatened in reality?
Will American no longer be transferring a huge % of it's LHR inbound traffic onto BA short haul? Not in US interests.
Will Delta have to sell up their stake in VS? Not in US interests.
Will BA be forced to stop flying Paris-US? Already happening as Open Skies is closing and the routes are being Level-ed.

It would be interesting to know what the realistic threat is here. Unless the administration go the full Trump and stop BA, DY and VS flying to the US in which case AA,UA and DL would also be blocked and we have an enormous self inflicted wound to transatlantic commerce.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 08:45
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If you read the Financial Times report, the talks were held in secret in January, and quickly broke down as the US would only offer a standard bilateral agreement. The killer clause to that is that it requires airlines to be majority owned and controlled by parties from their country of origin. Under EU-US open skies that means EU owned (I assume Norway are included in this) airlines can operate anywhere in the US. However with Virgin being substantially owned by Delta and Air France; BA being an IAG subsidiary, and Norwegian being, well Norwegian there lies the problem.

A graphic illustration that the bigger the imbalance between partners, the more likely the smaller partner loses out. Unlikely to be the only example over the next year or so.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 10:36
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Echo
No one gagged anyone.
The reality is US/UK is already open to and operated by US and UK airlines. Norwegian fly UK registered B787s on a UK AOC, they also fly Irish registered 737-MAXs on an Irish AOC. Like EZY, they could move the aircraft to the sister AOC and G- them.
What real changes are being threatened in reality?
Will American no longer be transferring a huge % of it's LHR inbound traffic onto BA short haul? Not in US interests.
Will Delta have to sell up their stake in VS? Not in US interests.
Will BA be forced to stop flying Paris-US? Already happening as Open Skies is closing and the routes are being Level-ed.

It would be interesting to know what the realistic threat is here. Unless the administration go the full Trump and stop BA, DY and VS flying to the US in which case AA,UA and DL would also be blocked and we have an enormous self inflicted wound to transatlantic commerce.
The problem isn't the AOC, it's the ownership. Norwegian UK is still Norwegian owned, despite the UK AOC.

"Will American no longer be transferring a huge % of it's LHR inbound traffic onto BA short haul? Not in US interests."
"Will Delta have to sell up their stake in VS? Not in US interests."

Neither of these will make any difference to the US. Delta and AA will both cope just fine without these agreements. Probably wont have a huge affect on the UK airlines either - Virgin might struggle a bit, BA wont even notice.

"Will BA be forced to stop flying Paris-US? Already happening as Open Skies is closing and the routes are being Level-ed." Both owned by the same company, it's just changing the name on the door. Immaterial anyway, its EU-US, not affected by these negotiations.

The big problem is going to come with untangling ownerships. BA is now tightly integrated in to IAG, which if the US gets their way, at least half of it would need to be sold off. BA would need to be sold off. Likewise AF/KLM will need to sell their stake in Virgin, and Norwegian will need to sell a stake in their UK division.

It's all going to be a nightmare. Also bear in mind this isnt going to be unique to the US-UK market. The same issues will crop up for EU-UK negotiations, possibly even some other countries that have accepted EU ownership of a UK airline, may now decide this is no longer the case.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 10:50
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The same issues will crop up for EU-UK negotiations
And the for every other non-EU country where we are currently part of an EU, as opposed to a UK, bilateral.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 11:34
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Article leaked by NAS in a Ryanair style scaremongering exercise. They are the only ones realistically likely to lose out in any new deal and they clearly know it. With their employment model and current terms and conditions I won’t be losing sleep over them.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 11:48
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Neither of these will make any difference to the US. Delta and AA will both cope just fine without these agreements. Probably wont have a huge affect on the UK airlines either - Virgin might struggle a bit, BA wont even notice.
Someone quoted to me that 40% of all AA's inbound LHR traffic is connecting onto UK/EU with BA. Now that sounds insanely high but anyone know how far off that is?
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 12:44
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Scaremongering? Look at the behaviour of the current US administration. They are tearing up trade agreements at a rate of knots. Why assume this will go in the UK favour.
Please show an actual example of anything material that the Trump administration has done to actually benefit the UK.
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Old 6th Mar 2018, 13:28
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Please show an actual example of anything material that the Trump administration has done to actually benefit the UK..
He makes Boris Johnson look like a statesman.
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Old 7th Mar 2018, 06:00
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What will happen to the Heathrow model and BA re connectivity OR are the EU negotiators hell bent on destroying this in order to attract passengers to Paris and Frankfurt.
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Old 7th Mar 2018, 06:31
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Originally Posted by Navpi
What will happen to the Heathrow model and BA re connectivity OR are the EU negotiators hell bent on destroying this in order to attract passengers to Paris and Frankfurt.
Why would EU negotiators be hellbent on destroying anything? We’ve chosen to leave.
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Old 7th Mar 2018, 07:51
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So in 2019 the primary (only) non-US operator between the UK and US will be Thomas Cook?

Think I’ll buy me some shares.
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