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TUI Airways

Old 16th Apr 2020, 13:38
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Originally Posted by ROC10
We may not see 757/767s flying at all this summer...
Says who? More baseless rubbish
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Old 16th Apr 2020, 13:45
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Originally Posted by ROC10
I don’t believe any of the acquisitions have the sky interior and some are older than the 738s that have recently been withdrawn. The thing is, it’s possible they would’ve been able to get their hands on younger frames post-COVID, although this could not have been foreseen and they are less likely to need the extra capacity now anyway. We may not see 757/767s flying at all this summer...
Complete load of rubbish. You’re not going to pay to lease aircraft and then leave your own aircraft on the ground. If TUI thought they would not need the leases they would have cancelled them just like Jet2 did.

These frames they have leased would have been on the radar far earlier than the unforeseen lockdown and I highly doubt a DECREASE in aircraft demand is going to result in only older airframes being available. Should we not be seeing an increase in availability across the lease market?

We need to stick to facts or, at the very least, plausible information instead of hear say.
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Old 16th Apr 2020, 14:33
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Originally Posted by JonnyH
Complete load of rubbish. You’re not going to pay to lease aircraft and then leave your own aircraft on the ground. If TUI thought they would not need the leases they would have cancelled them just like Jet2 did.

These frames they have leased would have been on the radar far earlier than the unforeseen lockdown and I highly doubt a DECREASE in aircraft demand is going to result in only older airframes being available. Should we not be seeing an increase in availability across the lease market?

We need to stick to facts or, at the very least, plausible information instead of hear say.
Sorry, I’m not sure what your point is. I don’t think I mentioned leased capacity. Like you say Jet2 have cancelled theirs and TUI quite possibly have too but I’m not sure. When did I say only older airframes would be available? I said that post-COVID there are likely going to be many younger frames available but that obviously couldn’t be foreseen and they probably wouldn’t want to acquire any further frames anyway, given the fact they have these older acquisitions arriving. I’m not talking about summer leases, of course those are unlikely to be needed (for at least much of the summer anyway) and therefore possibly cancelled.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 06:26
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The use again of the 757/767 fleet will depend on what stage of engineering requirements are needed - TUI although they may own that fleet they will likely not want to pay out for any costly Checks that maybe due. The 757's were planned to have gone by now but have had their grace extended a couple of times due to the MAX debacle.

As for the Sunwing Canada leases - that contract has been around for years, and is possibly a lengthy long term one.
The summer/winter arrangement suits both Companies and a cancellation penalty would be very costly.

As for the recent 738 purchases or leases to cover the MAX groundings. Perhaps TUI have also taken into account the removal of the 757's by procuring these.

As for TUI's mammoth expansion plans for W20/21 and S21 I cannot see TUI throwing caution to the wind and staying with that plan.
Once holidays restart (who knows when) there will be a huge rush for folk to travel to the sun if they can, however restrictions on travel will not be lifted to all countries just like that.
It will no doubt be Country by Country and is going to be hard time for all of us to plan anything.

As much as I love the 757 she is very much on borrowed time with TUI - Procurement of RB211 engine spares is now proving an issue too from RR due 787 troubles.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 11:41
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Originally Posted by rog747
The use again of the 757/767 fleet will depend on what stage of engineering requirements are needed - TUI although they may own that fleet they will likely not want to pay out for any costly Checks that maybe due. The 757's were planned to have gone by now but have had their grace extended a couple of times due to the MAX debacle.

As for the Sunwing Canada leases - that contract has been around for years, and is possibly a lengthy long term one.
The summer/winter arrangement suits both Companies and a cancellation penalty would be very costly.

As for the recent 738 purchases or leases to cover the MAX groundings. Perhaps TUI have also taken into account the removal of the 757's by procuring these.

As for TUI's mammoth expansion plans for W20/21 and S21 I cannot see TUI throwing caution to the wind and staying with that plan.
Once holidays restart (who knows when) there will be a huge rush for folk to travel to the sun if they can, however restrictions on travel will not be lifted to all countries just like that.
It will no doubt be Country by Country and is going to be hard time for all of us to plan anything.

As much as I love the 757 she is very much on borrowed time with TUI - Procurement of RB211 engine spares is now proving an issue too from RR due 787 troubles.
As far as I’m aware they don’t ‘own’ any of the remaining 757s but since this is the case with the vast majority of the fleet, it seems odd to refer to them as “leased”.

I would imagine all of the new 738 acquisitions will also be “leased” but they are not temporary summer leases and hence, in theory, should be treated no differently from the other 738s in the fleet (although if they don’t have Scimitars that may affect where they operate from).

The point I was making was that, 757/767 are probably less likely to be used as they are larger (so demand will need to be high enough) but also that they are inherently less efficient to operate than 737/787.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 23:03
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Originally Posted by ROC10
As far as I’m aware they don’t ‘own’ any of the remaining 757s but since this is the case with the vast majority of the fleet, it seems odd to refer to them as “leased”.

I would imagine all of the new 738 acquisitions will also be “leased” but they are not temporary summer leases and hence, in theory, should be treated no differently from the other 738s in the fleet (although if they don’t have Scimitars that may affect where they operate from).

The point I was making was that, 757/767 are probably less likely to be used as they are larger (so demand will need to be high enough) but also that they are inherently less efficient to operate than 737/787.
Whilst I agree with your point I also have think the 76’s may have a role to play. Let’s say 2 or 3 countries are ‘safe to travel’ and the rest are book at your own risk. Let’s say randomly the canaries are a safe zone. Everybody will book to go to the canaries, so will the extra capacity be needed for runs to the safer zones. I may be wrong and I’m just playing devils advocate. I think the 757’s are all but done. The recent 737 leases will cover the 757’s but may the 767’s have a short term role to play?
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 23:50
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Originally Posted by azz767
Whilst I agree with your point I also have think the 76’s may have a role to play. Let’s say 2 or 3 countries are ‘safe to travel’ and the rest are book at your own risk. Let’s say randomly the canaries are a safe zone. Everybody will book to go to the canaries, so will the extra capacity be needed for runs to the safer zones. I may be wrong and I’m just playing devils advocate. I think the 757’s are all but done. The recent 737 leases will cover the 757’s but may the 767’s have a short term role to play?
They aren’t going to ground both types in favour of S20 & W20/21 leases. If by chance they recognise they’re never going to be required, they’ll retire them almost immediately.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:30
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Originally Posted by JonnyH
They aren’t going to ground both types in favour of S20 & W20/21 leases. If by chance they recognise they’re never going to be required, they’ll retire them almost immediately.
Which leases though? Aren’t all the 757s and 767s “leased” too? As far as I’m aware they are.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:51
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There needs to be definition of 'leased'. ALL of tui's Fleet are now leased, the last owned aircraft was BYAW which was sold earlier this year.

I strongly suspect that all of the wet/damp leases from the various ACMi operators will have been cancelled as have J2. Im guessing at a reasonable penalty (however the force majeure card may have been played).

Regarding the sunwing canadian aircraft, again doubtful if they'll be seen in the UK this year, but suspect seeing as though TUI own half of sunwing doubt there will be any penalty to cancelling these.

Regarding the 757 fleet, several of these were extended to remain in the fleet just for the summer so a distinct possibility these will exit pretty sharpish.

So I'd (optimistically) expect the majority of TUI's remaining own leased Fleet to remain operational towards the year end, including the 757/767.

The next big question is what do they do with the max order seeing as though the rumours are its nearing recertification........
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:45
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Originally Posted by Yeehaw22
There needs to be definition of 'leased'. ALL of tui's Fleet are now leased, the last owned aircraft was BYAW which was sold earlier this year.

I strongly suspect that all of the wet/damp leases from the various ACMi operators will have been cancelled as have J2. Im guessing at a reasonable penalty (however the force majeure card may have been played).

Regarding the sunwing canadian aircraft, again doubtful if they'll be seen in the UK this year, but suspect seeing as though TUI own half of sunwing doubt there will be any penalty to cancelling these.

Regarding the 757 fleet, several of these were extended to remain in the fleet just for the summer so a distinct possibility these will exit pretty sharpish.

So I'd (optimistically) expect the majority of TUI's remaining own leased Fleet to remain operational towards the year end, including the 757/767.

The next big question is what do they do with the max order seeing as though the rumours are its nearing recertification........
I agree, most of the fleet will probably remain apart from those aircraft due to leave anyway. The question is whether many of them will fly during S20 now that the government are urging people not to book summer holidays this year.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:30
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Don't forget that TUI UK is part of the wider TUI group. It all depends how demand is across Europe as a whole, meaning the fleet can be switched around. Germans for example could be more inclined to book a holiday than the British if travel advice is different to what the UK has put out. No-one really knows which way it's going to go.
At the bigger bases where there's higher frequency routes, the 757's and 767's could be used on routes that may have been twice daily or daily, and consolidated due to lack of demand. It could also be a time to get aircraft in for maintenance that may have been done through the winter.
Until everything falls in to place and a better picture of what will happen is seen, it's difficult for anyone to judge. We could see a big spike in Winter holidays this coming winter if people feel the need to get away and this summer is a write off for some. Also remember it's not necessarily TUI Airways that make the call. It's TUI holidays. There may be consolidation on what hotels are being used, meaning less room capacity is needed to save money, whilst not ideal flying half empty planes, it could mean the reduced hotel capacity is filled.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:33
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Again define 'summer'

The kid's school holidays or summer season? I'm pretty sure the likes of TUI and Jet2 will be hoping for a decent-ish end of summer (sep/oct) and October half term to recoup some cash.

Our transport minister should really learn to think before he speaks.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:33
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Originally Posted by ROC10
Which leases though? Aren’t all the 757s and 767s “leased” too? As far as I’m aware they are.
Wet/damp leases. They were due a few.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 13:57
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Originally Posted by JonnyH
Wet/damp leases. They were due a few.
Yes, I’d imagine those would be cancelled
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 15:07
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Originally Posted by Yeehaw22
Again define 'summer'

The kid's school holidays or summer season? I'm pretty sure the likes of TUI and Jet2 will be hoping for a decent-ish end of summer (sep/oct) and October half term to recoup some cash.

Our transport minister should really learn to think before he speaks.
In the industry ''summer'' is defined as the IT charter series program that normally starts May-Oct with some peak destinations like HER & RHO starting APR to the very end of Oct (last half term week is last departure at end of summer flying season)

The Winter Program starts the week after then.

TUI will have Summer 2020 all defined but would not be ready to roll without some notice -- once HM Govt and other EU and other Countries agree to start up Tourism. (if)

But IMO frankly this summer is dead in the water...
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 08:53
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Originally Posted by rog747
In the industry ''summer'' is defined as the IT charter series program that normally starts May-Oct with some peak destinations like HER & RHO starting APR to the very end of Oct (last half term week is last departure at end of summer flying season)

The Winter Program starts the week after then.

TUI will have Summer 2020 all defined but would not be ready to roll without some notice -- once HM Govt and other EU and other Countries agree to start up Tourism. (if)

But IMO frankly this summer is dead in the water...
You are right Rog..Only recently the tourism chief for the Canary Islands wrote Summer 20 off in its entirety down there.
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 08:58
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Originally Posted by paully
You are right Rog..Only recently the tourism chief for the Canary Islands wrote Summer 20 off in its entirety down there.
Worth remembering that the Canary Island’s peak season is during the winter (even though they are a year round destination), so to writing off the summer they have less to lose than the Greek Islands, Croatia or even Turkey.
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 09:24
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Originally Posted by toledoashley
Worth remembering that the Canary Island’s peak season is during the winter (even though they are a year round destination), so to writing off the summer they have less to lose than the Greek Islands, Croatia or even Turkey.
Yup The Canary Islands and possibly Egypt could have a bumper winter if we are allowed to travel - Although TUI has just cut back on SSH expansions with the series cancelled from BOH at least
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 10:23
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Currently stuck in the Tenerife and today is the start of the 6th week of lock down with two more promised. Then if figures continue in the current downward trend, word has it that slowly restrictions will be lifted.....need to be able to go for a walk like in the uk !!!!
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 12:20
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There are some reports in the Spanish press today that restrictions will gradually be lifted in several stages over the coming months with some shops, but not bars or restaurants, beginning to open from early in May. Freedom of movement will come at a later stage. Also some suggestions that some hotels are hoping to gradually open from late June, but the industry is banking on domestic not international tourism in the first stage of recovery. Children accompanied by an adult will be allowed to go outside for short periods from next week.
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