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Old 19th Dec 2018, 20:11
  #941 (permalink)  
 
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If there's no deal, the UK and the EU will have a year to negotiate a standard bilateral (which will cover most of Jet2's business), or something more liberal if the EU is feeling sensible (I did say "if").
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 20:35
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Oddly enough, bilateral traffic rights existed quite satisfactorily in the days before the EU, right up to the level of fifth-freedom.

In the early 1960s Aer Lingus had more fifth-freedoms that any other European carrier, and that from a nation with a population of fewer than three million at the time and little in the way of an economy. Yet they negotiated like pros and got what they wanted.

The UK will remain an attractive destination for European carriers and they will pressure their Governments to pressue the organs of the EU to negotiate bilaterals.
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 20:49
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Ah, there's the rub - "they negotiated like Pros."
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 20:51
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Spain would be bankrupt within hours without British tourists.

37 flights from the UK to Alicante tomorrow alone, around 5500 pax at an average of 150 punters per aircraft.
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Last edited by Council Van; 19th Dec 2018 at 21:07.
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 21:01
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Originally Posted by Council Van
Spain would be bankrupt within hours without British tourists.
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And that would bother France and Germany how?
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 21:04
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As quoted elsewhere in PPRUNE, in the event of a no deal Brexit:

...the total seasonal capacity to be provided by UK air carriers for routes between the United Kingdom and each Member State shall not exceed the total number of frequencies operated by those carriers on those routes during respectively the IATA winter and summer seasons of the year of 2018.
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 21:42
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Originally Posted by eye2eye5
As quoted elsewhere in PPRUNE, in the event of a no deal Brexit:

...the total seasonal capacity to be provided by UK air carriers for routes between the United Kingdom and each Member State shall not exceed the total number of frequencies operated by those carriers on those routes during respectively the IATA winter and summer seasons of the year of 2018.
So let all board a B744 from STN to ALC, this is just getting pathetic now, it will all be fine, why would they restrict UK flights when we allow them to fly unrestricted, and it’s true Spain for example would be bankrupt, take a Saturday in August 2019 over 50 flights in one day between the UK and Palma you do the math.
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 21:48
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Originally Posted by sixchannel
And that would bother France and Germany how?
Because a bankrupt Spain would lead to a recession in the EU within the month, well 6 months, or two consecutive quarters to meet the definition of a recession.

Let's not forget Greece falling off the cliff as well without Brits and Cyprus would be in a bit of a mess.

I guess it could be a good time to invest in Turkish holiday developments if you believe the EU would sacrifice the Spanish just to show how nasty they are. Such games would not be tolerated by the Spanish and they would be out of the EU very quickly as well and then the EU Castle would come tumbling down.

Tourism expenditure to Spain stood at 55billion euros (£50billion) in 2016.

“Some 14billion euros (£12.7billion) of that came from the UK – that’s 26 per cent.

“So we are actually the biggest contributor to the Spanish tourist economy.”
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 22:25
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The Spanish economy is much more than tourism.
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 22:34
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Originally Posted by inOban
The Spanish economy is much more than tourism.
Correct but take Inbound UK tourism out of the economy and you have a bigger disaster than most could comprehend, it’s not just flights it’s hotels it’s food for hotels it’s staff for hotels the drinks industry it’s jobs in building, restaurants shops taxis buses the list goes on and on and on.
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Old 19th Dec 2018, 22:51
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It’s actually not as clear cut as the Spanish economy tanking because the Brits are shut out because there are a couple of other factors at play.

One is that in some places there there is a shortage of accommodation to match seats available, so an element of market readjustment and an element of other countries and operators taking on capacity that becomes available.

Another is that various destinations are looking to clean up their act and attract higher yielding tourists. The Spanish Government might secretly welcome British mass tourism falling off a cliff.

If our economy tanks as everyone expects it to even if barriers are temporary we are still going to end up with a much longer term drop in demand.
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Old 20th Dec 2018, 07:26
  #952 (permalink)  
 
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And what of another collapse in the prices of Spanish property? It's effects on already weak banks could bring the whole Euro down
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Old 20th Dec 2018, 07:44
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Thomas Cook had to base an aircraft in the Canaries a couple of years ago. Their reasoning was that there was so few bed spaces available, if an aircraft went tech they had nowhere to overnight people.
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Old 20th Dec 2018, 12:27
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By God Council Van you talk such a lot of rubbish regarding the Spanish economy, I suggest you look at the Spanish car industry, steel and shipbuilding for a start. Typical ignorant Brit thinking the world ends at Dover!
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Old 20th Dec 2018, 13:51
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Originally Posted by compton3bravo
By God Council Van you talk such a lot of rubbish regarding the Spanish economy, I suggest you look at the Spanish car industry, steel and shipbuilding for a start. Typical ignorant Brit thinking the world ends at Dover!
It will - from March 29th onwards.
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Old 20th Dec 2018, 17:28
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Originally Posted by compton3bravo
By God Council Van you talk such a lot of rubbish regarding the Spanish economy, I suggest you look at the Spanish car industry, steel and shipbuilding for a start. Typical ignorant Brit thinking the world ends at Dover!
He probably meant outside of a very prosperous Catalonia where these activities mainly take place. But if their plans for exiting Spain were ever to come to fruition, which is why they don`t want them to go,the rest of Castillian Spain would be relying on Tourism and Agriculture as their main sources of income. Call that what you want.
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Old 20th Dec 2018, 19:55
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The world will keep turning...
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 08:27
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Second hand B737-800, G-DRTN is finally on it's first revenue service for Jet2 this morning, currently on route to Alicante from Manchester as LS879.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 11:05
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Originally Posted by compton3bravo
By God Council Van you talk such a lot of rubbish regarding the Spanish economy, I suggest you look at the Spanish car industry, steel and shipbuilding for a start. Typical ignorant Brit thinking the world ends at Dover!
Oddly enough the only 3 member states of the EU I have never visited are the 3 L's, Luxembourg, Lithuanian and Latvia.

I worked in Germany for several years and even Nigeria so I am well aware that the world does not end at the English channel.

Perhaps if you take the time to look in the mirror you will see the ignorant person looking back at yourself, some one who gets so aggressive and has to throw insults because another person has a different opinion to your own.
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Cheer up, it is Christmas after all.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 15:58
  #960 (permalink)  
 
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sorry if this is wrong
but is this a Jet 2 subject
and a aviation forum
so why all the politics and european talk
come on we get enough of that on TV
give it a rest and talk about Jet 2
which is the topic of the forum
thank you
Mark
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