Edinburgh-3

[Plane mad 134]

Bad news to hear of Hainan but Im guessing competition from Emirates and Qatar has not helped, maybe this will prompt Cathay Pacific to start a Hong Kong route.

[FFHKG]

Or maybe cause CX to think twice about starting the route if competition from ME carriers is the cause.

[ld0595]

With the amount of capacity that Qatar and Emirates are throwing at the Scottish market just now, I'd be surprised to see Cathay Pacific starting any time soon, or seeing any other far eastern long haul destination for that matter. My calculations suggest that in the high summer, there will be over 11,000 eastbound seats per week on EK/QR between Glasgow and Edinburgh alone (1 daily A380, 2 daily 77W and 10 weekly A359), and even about 9,500 seats in the lowest season (3 daily 77W, 1 daily A359). Granted, most capacity is to Dubai which is a very popular tourist destination in itself, but it's still a huge number of seats to fill for connections.

I think Cathay could have an OK chance of doing well given the number of destinations in mainland China that they serve, along with connection opportunities to Australia/NZ and I guess the UK historical links with Hong Kong, but I can't see the Scottish market being able to sustain that number of eastbound seats whilst providing sufficient yields for CX. Happy to be proved wrong though - I'd love to see them and I'd definitely use them again.

[inOban]

If you're heading for China/Japan surely the logical route is use Helsinki as your hub? Much more direct

[CraigJay]

Cathay are doing great at DUB and they have all 3 of the main ME carriers. Surely the market size in Scotland and Ireland is roughly the same, I’m sure Cathay would fare far better at EDI than Hainan did.

[nighthawk117]

Relax everyone... Airlineroute are now reporting EDI and DUB flights are back on sale beyond 1st September. Looks like it was a false alarm. As you were.

[Plane mad 134]

Well thats good news.

[wub]

I was able to make a dummy booking on the Hainan website for Edinburgh to Beijing as late as the end of September

[Sk1schoolsam]

Originally Posted by wub

I was able to make a dummy booking on the Hainan website for Edinburgh to Beijing as late as the end of September

Only Full fare tickets available thought, many cheaper connecting flights offered, with the Direct flight well down the list. Still not sure it will be maintained through Sept.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by Sk1schoolsam

Only Full fare tickets available thought, many cheaper connecting flights offered, with the Direct flight well down the list. Still not sure it will be maintained through Sept.

I agree. Here's the Google flights search result showing the Hainan EDI-PEK pricing - click on "Price Graph" and look at the jump from 1 Sep onwards. Yes, you can book, but only at a dissuasively high fare. This is not an airline looking to encourage forward bookings after the end of August.

Incidentally the same exercise for Dublin-Beijing is interesting. Here's the Google flights search for that. "Price Graph" this time suggests that Hainan is happy for you to continue booking on the Monday or Friday departure from Dublin until the end of October, just not the Tuesday or Saturday one... Does this mean that Dublin is being decoupled from Edinburgh?

[Plane mad 134]

Loganair added Bergen and Stavanger this week and Guernsey to start tommorow they had a cake and water arch all pictures on twitter.

Also it would be good to see Hainan decoupling from Dublin.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Originally Posted by nighthawk117

Relax everyone... Airlineroute are now reporting EDI and DUB flights are back on sale beyond 1st September. Looks like it was a false alarm. As you were.

The whole HAINAN group are carrying a mountain of debt, sending a B789 to double drop Scotland and Dublin is not tenable, particularly given the loads.
OK it's a high profile route operated by a Chinese registered Dreamliner being offered with some decent fares to market but there are wayy more sensible routes to go from EDI if price is not the only thing on your mind.
They don't really "accidentally " do this, it feels like there's a fight going on for the aircraft used and someone else won, then may have lost, but it isn't growing at anything like fast enough to be a credible offering to anyone outside price conscious tourism.

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Originally Posted by Cyrano

I agree. Here's the Google flights search result showing the Hainan EDI-PEK pricing - click on "Price Graph" and look at the jump from 1 Sep onwards. Yes, you can book, but only at a dissuasively high fare. This is not an airline looking to encourage forward bookings after the end of August.

Incidentally the same exercise for Dublin-Beijing is interesting. Here's the Google flights search for that. "Price Graph" this time suggests that Hainan is happy for you to continue booking on the Monday or Friday departure from Dublin until the end of October, just not the Tuesday or Saturday one... Does this mean that Dublin is being decoupled from Edinburgh?

The Monday and Friday ex DUB are to Shenzhen not Beijing.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Originally Posted by CraigJay

Cathay are doing great at DUB and they have all 3 of the main ME carriers. Surely the market size in Scotland and Ireland is roughly the same, I’m sure Cathay would fare far better at EDI than Hainan did.

Scotland is more "local", it needs an airport for both Edinburgh and Glasgow and so the market fragments badly and the comparison is lost. One "Central Scotland" airport would have United flying if not B772s then at least B787s with Delta surely flying A330s. As things stand, it's narrow body central with yields (slightly) diluted but more local options. Dublin dominates BFS, ORK and SNN in a way neither GLA/EDI can do in Scotland.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by EI-EIDW

The Monday and Friday ex DUB are to Shenzhen not Beijing.

Duh. You're absolutely right. Sorry! OK, forget my reference to decoupling - that therefore implies that the whole EDI/DUB-PEK is likely for the chop...

[nighthawk117]

Scotland is more "local", it needs an airport for both Edinburgh and Glasgow and so the market fragments badly and the comparison is lost.

While I agree that what Scotland needs is a single, central belt airport, I dont think it would make much difference here. The main market for this flight is inbound Chinese tourists, many of which tend to book as part of a package tour. What airport they fly in to is irrelevant - as they'll be boarding a pre-booked bus and will be whisked off to the first of their many destinations - probably Edinburgh to start anyway, then on to other destinations around Scotland.

Any business travel, or Scottish tourists heading to Beijing will just be a happy extra, but certainly not the main market for this flight. As such, I don't think a single central airport would make much difference in this case.

As for the United / Delta examples - i'm not convinced. Look at Manchester, with its much larger catchment, yet it's still narrowbody central to the US. With the exception of the United flight which upgraded this year, it's all 757s. These aircraft are perfect for operating flights to the UK, freeing up widebodies for flights further in to Europe.

[Sk1schoolsam]

Originally Posted by Cyrano

Duh. You're absolutely right. Sorry! OK, forget my reference to decoupling - that therefore implies that the whole EDI/DUB-PEK is likely for the chop...

Hainan website showing the direct flight Still scheduled till 24th October. Perhaps just going seasonal?

[VickersVicount]

but still only bookable for certain fare types and no cheap seats. Not a great way of convincing the tour groups.

[cuthere]

Just popping by. I thought I was viewing the Edinburgh thread. My mistake....!

[CabinCrewe]

Originally Posted by cuthere

Just popping by. I thought I was viewing the Edinburgh thread. My mistake....!

LOL! Its the old grandeur above station again that leads to this..😴