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London City-3

Old 2nd Sep 2018, 13:33
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Might we have to conclude that just because the route has almost always existed doesn't mean it necessarily should? It doesn't seem to have brought, in recent years, happiness to those who have operated it. Further, flying those sorts of distances to that sort of size of airport in those sorts of sizes of planes is now almost extinct.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 09:57
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 01475 View Post
Might we have to conclude that just because the route has almost always existed doesn't mean it necessarily should? It doesn't seem to have brought, in recent years, happiness to those who have operated it. Further, flying those sorts of distances to that sort of size of airport in those sorts of sizes of planes is now almost extinct.
Not sure if it was LCY-ANR that doomed VLM 2.0. My guess is that they wasted their limited resources on routes like MUC-MBX and ANR-ABZ, although Stobart's competition on ANR-SEN certainly did not help. ANR-LCY probably works with a cheap 50 seater, but the problem is of course to generate econoies of scale from that basis. So a larger outfit like Flybe would be a better choice instead of a local mini-airline.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 11:09
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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BE would be a good fit for the ANR route, the baseline seems to be 30-odd pax per flight 3x daily paying decent fares. Itís easy to see potential for that to be grown a little, and much more potential for additional lower-yielding leisure traffic to add to the mix.

Antwerp is a pretty good short-break destination that seems to underperform with British travellers, perhaps because itís a little under the radar by virtue of it being too small to handle EZY/FR etc and another hour or so from Brussels if you come by train. Rotterdam isnít too far but that isnít particularly well connected directly by air from the UK either.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 11:32
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
BE would be a good fit for the ANR route, the baseline seems to be 30-odd pax per flight 3x daily paying decent fares. Itís easy to see potential for that to be grown a little, and much more potential for additional lower-yielding leisure traffic to add to the mix.

Antwerp is a pretty good short-break destination that seems to underperform with British travellers, perhaps because itís a little under the radar by virtue of it being too small to handle EZY/FR etc and another hour or so from Brussels if you come by train. Rotterdam isnít too far but that isnít particularly well connected directly by air from the UK either.
The problem is really the vicinity of Brussels. Nothing more telling than the answer I received upon checking out of a hotel in Antwerp when I asked for directions to public transport to the airport - and the lady started explaining how to catch the train to Brussels Airport.... I guess Antwerp to some extent has to sell itself as "Flanders City Airport" with regard to Brussels Airport.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 11:35
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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A lot of the London Antwerp (and vv) market is related to the diamond trade and it should be possible to sustain a service to LCY with the right equipment. The oil business is also relevant on this route.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 11:46
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by willy wombat View Post
A lot of the London Antwerp (and vv) market is related to the diamond trade and it should be possible to sustain a service to LCY with the right equipment. The oil business is also relevant on this route.
Perhaps an opportunity for Sun Air. They fly BLL and they operated HAM and BRE for a short while. They have the right plane for the route.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 12:53
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Bear in mind that a substantial chunk of the traffic (especially of the higher-yielding traffic) originates in Antwerp and therefore expects a morning departure. The core of the VLM schedule is a morning and evening rotation facilitating day trips:
ANR 0700 - 0710 LCY
LCY 0740 - 0940 ANR
ANR 1750 - 1800 LCY
LCY 1830 - 2030 ANR

This requires an ANR-based aircraft to work - if the first departure from ANR is only (for example) at 0930, it will be too late for a good chunk of the prospective passengers. Similarly, for an LCY-based aircraft, a departure from LCY at say 1700 would mean a departure from ANR at about 1930, so again you'd have lost a fair share of the UK business day-trippers to BRU or the Eurostar.

Someone like flyBE could always operate the route with an LCY-based aircraft, but it'll be on a compromised schedule and is unlikely to be sustainable. A carrier like Sun-Air could theoretically operate the route from the ANR end, but if it's not sustainable with a fully-depreciated F50 flown by the Antwerp hometown carrier, why would it work with a more expensive aircraft? I don't think the benefits of the BA code would overcome the adverse economics, especially given LCY's charging structure which penalises smaller aircraft by setting a minimum PLS charge level equivalent to 45 passengers, irrespective of aircraft size. (See LCY Fees and Charges).

I have to sadly agree with 01475:

Originally Posted by 01475 View Post
Might we have to conclude that just because the route has almost always existed doesn't mean it necessarily should? It doesn't seem to have brought, in recent years, happiness to those who have operated it. Further, flying those sorts of distances to that sort of size of airport in those sorts of sizes of planes is now almost extinct.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 13:51
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post
Bear in mind that a substantial chunk of the traffic (especially of the higher-yielding traffic) originates in Antwerp and therefore expects a morning departure. The core of the VLM schedule is a morning and evening rotation facilitating day trips. This requires an ANR-based aircraft to work - if the first departure from ANR is only (for example) at 0930, it will be too late for a good chunk of the prospective passengers. Similarly, for an LCY-based aircraft, a departure from LCY at say 1700 would mean a departure from ANR at about 1930, so again you'd have lost a fair share of the UK business day-trippers to BRU or the Eurostar.
Absolutely, an early morning flight ANR to LCY is quite essential to make this work. I was surprised to read that flyBEis doing well with their flights to SEN that only leave Antwerp at 2 pm, but it's pretty clear they don't (need to) carry many business passengers. Which means the company best suited to pick up this route is locally based. Not VLM or any of its new incarnations, but someone really new. But then you won't run an entire airline on one route and in all of 25 years we have just about established trough lots and lots of trial and error that you can only count on LCY and ZRH to work when it comes to high yielding destinations.

Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post
Someone like flyBE could always operate the route with an LCY-based aircraft, but it'll be on a compromised schedule and is unlikely to be sustainable.
While I don't think it's going to happen, flyBE (or actually Stobart) does overnight a plane at GRQ (Groningen) and offers quite an attractive 'business' schedule for there with early morning and late evening rotations.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 14:29
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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It would be a good plan to nightstop on ATR in Antwerp, but depends on the yet to be announced schedules for 2019.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 14:37
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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The Flybe/Stobart SEN-ANR route currently carries 1,500 pax per month at a load factor of around 60%. Maybe they will be happy just to pick up a little of the ex-VLM traffic which might turn the current frequencies into a nicely profitable route. That's always assuming the route will in fact operate after the end of March 2019.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 14:47
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Actually, I just remembered that back in 2014 when Stobart first started flying to ANR, they DID night stop there and did a double daily. The first ANR-SEN flight of the day left at 0715, the last flight of the day arrived ANR at 2025.
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 15:36
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BA318 View Post
BA adding four E190s and launching Rome plus more routes: British Airways - MORE ROUTES AND MORE AIRCRAFT FOR LONDON CITY
Any idea how these aircraft will be sourced ? Nordic capital maybe ?
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 17:36
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rouelan View Post
Any idea how these aircraft will be sourced ? Nordic capital maybe ?
Might they be coming from AA? They're only 11 years old and being removed from the fleet imminently
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Old 3rd Sep 2018, 17:49
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GLCYZ View Post
Apparently the four E190 are coming from China. So potentially China Southern or Tianjin?
Nothing yet on Jethros
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Old 4th Sep 2018, 10:28
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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I think Flybe would be happy to move the Southend-Antwerp route to LCY, now the competitor has gone.

It has long had a smallish but substantial business travel demand from the diamond trade, which in Europe is centred in the two cities. Sometimes I suspect what is in one or two of the briefcases is worth more than the airframe (no putdown on the good old F.50s ! ).
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Old 4th Sep 2018, 10:31
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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I think Flybe would be happy to move the Southend-Antwerp route to LCY, now the competitor has gone.
Is it Flybe's to move? As a Stobart flight, isn't it down to them?
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Old 4th Sep 2018, 10:56
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Adria has confirmed that it is looking at two of Skywork's former routes from BRN, one of them LCY. They are about to start their new Saab 2000 operation woth six aircraft and should have plenty of capacity left as only 2 or 3 aircraft appear to be scheduled so far. It should be noted, however, that they will begin to serve SEN from PAD soon, so SEN-BRN would be another logical choice.

The same (Austrian) source also reports that BACF is looking at VIE as part of their 2019 expansion.
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Old 4th Sep 2018, 11:33
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Is it Flybe's to move? As a Stobart flight, isn't it down to them?
True. I doubt if Stobart are that stupid to set up routes into LCY their main competitor London airport.
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Old 4th Sep 2018, 14:05
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Trivia: Antwerp has had a London link for almost 60 years. It began in the early 1960s with Channel Airways to SEN, a couple of years later Sabena started LHR (a route that still existed at least in the late 1980s - not sure when it ended). In the 1970s, BIA served LGW, later followed by BCal Commuter, Air Europe Express, TIA/Airlines 1992, Air Exel and Euroworld/Cityflyer. LGW ended in 1998 as a result of increasing competition from VLM that had started LCY as its first route in 1993.
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Old 4th Sep 2018, 14:22
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tophat27dt View Post
True. I doubt if Stobart are that stupid to set up routes into LCY their main competitor London airport.
No, but Flybe might start LCY-ANR in their own right as they started LCY-RNS in competition with SEN-RNS a year or two back in the peak summer months.
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