Loganair-2

[tophat27dt]

Originally Posted by pamann

Don’t the Dundee - Stansted flights codeshare with EK to DXB and beyond? If they moved the flight to Southend they’d lose the connections.

I think Dundee-SEN is not being considered at the moment.

[andrew1968]

Ex flybmi E145 G-RJXM has had Loganair titles applied at Bristol today, so that’s another to add to the fleet.

[BAladdy]

Originally Posted by Plane mad 134

Confirmed as Stornoway, Aberdeen and Glasgow to Southend with Edinburgh on the cards for around October.

Hopefully LM will be much more successful operating the SEN-GLA route than Stobart/Flybe were.

I wonder just how long the current BE/T3 ABZ-LCY service will continue once Loganair launch SEN?. Especially since Loganair’s SEN Service will operate direct, at a higher frequency with flights times about 1 hr shorter than BE’s LCY flights. Also LMs lowest fare will be about half the price of BE’s lowest fare on the LCY.

It is interesting that EDI is on the card for around October. EDI-LON is a extremely competitive market with over 300 flights a week, that’s over 200 more than ABZ and over a 100 more than currently from GLA. I can’t help but think that they might struggle to compete profitably.

[4567]

May well be why Loganair have decided not to launch EDI right now until they see if SEN establishes from GLA and ABZ.

[GLAEDI]

Originally Posted by 4567

May well be why Loganair have decided not to launch EDI right now until they see if SEN establishes from GLA and ABZ.

Also remember GLA and ABZ are home airports (Loganair spiritual home is Glasgow & Aberdeen home to what was Business Air) for LM. Cheaper start up costs than EDI.

[BAladdy]

Originally Posted by GLAEDI

Also remember GLA and ABZ are home airports (Loganair spiritual home is Glasgow & Aberdeen home to what was Business Air) for LM. Cheaper start up costs than EDI.

Another airport that I think a service to SEN could do very well, if operated at a similar frequency as planned from GLA is there new NCL base.

[inOban]

If this 'same plane' service from Stornoway to London is successful, then I can imagine similar services from Kirkwall and/or Sumburgh via EDI.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Loganair are a high cost airline offering a service to Southend that needs to command a premium over easyJet and BA to make money, and yet is serving one of the less than wealthy local catchment areas. Buying obsolete regional jets and throwing them into borderline regional markets where they have zero brand awareness is going to lose a whole load of money in the short term IMHO.

[shamrock7seal]

Couldn't agree more Skipness One Foxtrot. There seems to be no single coherent strategy here other than very misguided land-grabbing

I heard it said that because they are deploying the ERJ-145 that the loads will be high because the ATR-72 was too big. BANGING HEAD AGAINST BRICK WALL.

I expect eventually these services to move to London City before being withdrawn altogether.

[Expressflight]

A couple of interesting observations there which could be the way it goes. The merit of the E145 over the ATR is the enduring passenger perception that a jet aircraft is more appealing to them regardless of whether it is actually faster or not. These routes will certainly be interesting to monitor. I flew on the first SEN-CFR flight and one passenger was actually on the point of not travelling once he say the propellers.

[virginblue]

While I agree with most of what Skipness has said, Stobart had to earn money on its domestic routes with, IIRC, factory-fresh ATR72-600s. The ERJs Loganair will be using are apparently owned by Loganair's mother company and will probalby result in very low capital costs, given their age. So the overall maths could work in favour of Loganair indeed (higher fuel and maintenance costs, lower capital and cabin crew costs).

Nevertheless, I am slightly concerned that Loganair now wants too much too soon and may risk its future well being and thus it core network in the highlands and islands (although I supsect that if push comes to shove, Scottish government will come up with something to guarantee the continuation of Loganair's core business).

As for ABZ-SEN, I find it interesting that everybody is focused on the competing ABZ-NCL-LCY service on Eastern. Another issue that has not been mentioned is the recent withdrawal of the ABZ-LGW route by easyJet which has removed 300 seats from the ABZ-LON market each day. Depending on where you live the southeast, of all the inconvenient alternatives to LGW (other than LCY), SEN might be a better option for some than LTN, STN or LHR.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by virginblue

While I agree with most of what Skipness has said, Stobart had to earn money on its domestic routes with, IIRC, factory-fresh ATR72-600s. The ERJs Loganair will be using are apparently owned by Loganair's mother company and will probalby result in very low capital costs, given their age. So the overall maths could work in favour of Loganair indeed (higher fuel and maintenance costs, lower capital and cabin crew costs).

Nevertheless, I am slightly concerned that Loganair now wants too much too soon and may risk its future well being and thus it core network in the highlands and islands (although I supsect that if push comes to shove, Scottish government will come up with something to guarantee the continuation of Loganair's core business).

I think you're absolutely right. Yes, the capital costs will be lower, but that applied to flybmi too and wasn't enough to save them. Profitable niches for small regional jets are becoming rarer and rarer, and they seem only to survive where there is a relatively "protected" market that has substantial high-yield (business) traffic and doesn't face too much LCC competition. That doesn't describe the broader GLA-LON or ABZ-LON markets - perhaps someone more familiar with the catchment can tell us if it describes GLA-SEN or ABZ-SEN? I'd like to see it work but I am not convinced. Stobart may be throwing large amounts of money at Loganair to induce it to start these routes, but the money will have to run out sooner or later and the routes will have to stand on their own feet.

[BA318]

Originally Posted by shamrock7seal

I expect eventually these services to move to London City before being withdrawn altogether.

The E145 is not certificated for LCY. The E135 could do it but LCY doesn't like smaller RJs now.

[mwm991]

If fares are alright I think they will do fine out of GLA. Nothing replaced the STN FR service when it went. ABZ lost LGW on EZY but has since gained Flybe LHR and Eastern LCY have they not? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd be a bit more concerned about the viability of that route even if it's cheaper fares and different clientele.

[virginblue]

Originally Posted by Cyrano

I think you're absolutely right. Yes, the capital costs will be lower, but that applied to flybmi too and wasn't enough to save them. Profitable niches for small regional jets are becoming rarer and rarer, and they seem only to survive where there is a relatively "protected" market that has substantial high-yield (business) traffic and doesn't face too much LCC competition.

From what I gather, flybmi played a slightly different card as they put their money on fewer, but higher yielding passengers based on operations spread out across half of Europe. Loganair apparently is (except for some slam dunk profitable ex flybmi routes) after more passengers at a lower yield, focused on bases in Scotland and nearby airports. I am not convinced that it will work, but is a different approach of using Embraers 145 (I never really understood why they took on Embraer 135s, though).

If fares are alright I think they will do fine out of GLA. Nothing replaced the STN FR service when it went. ABZ lost LGW on EZY but has since gained Flybe LHR and Eastern LCY have they not? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd be a bit more concerned about the viability of that route even if it's cheaper fares and different clientele.

As Loganair only needs to fill a 49 seater, it must only capture a small portion of the former LGW-ABZ passengers to add to SEN's local catchment area and those who see SEN-ABZ as a quicker and cheaper alternative to the recently downgraded LCY-ABZ route that now stops at NCL. Plus there could be some folks using shortish connections from London via ABZ to Kirkwall and Sumburgh. It will be very difficult, but maybe it will work out ok

[01475]

I really worry that Loganair is just trying to find ways of using its parent company's aircraft rather than doing things that are in the best interests of the business. Is the lower capital value of the aircraft in reflected in running costs shown in the accounts, or is that an assumption? One way or another the capital cost has to be met in cash at some point in the life of the aircraft, and it wouldn't be surprising if the rate it which this happened diverged from their accounting value.

... but I hope the Stornoway link takes off! Links like that could be so amazing for the local economy!

[SealinkBF]

Originally Posted by BAladdy

Hopefully LM will be much more successful operating the SEN-GLA route than Stobart/Flybe were.

I wonder just how long the current BE/T3 ABZ-LCY service will continue once Loganair launch SEN?. Especially since Loganair’s SEN Service will operate direct, at a higher frequency with flights times about 1 hr shorter than BE’s LCY flights. Also LMs lowest fare will be about half the price of BE’s lowest fare on the LCY.

It is interesting that EDI is on the card for around October. EDI-LON is a extremely competitive market with over 300 flights a week, that’s over 200 more than ABZ and over a 100 more than currently from GLA. I can’t help but think that they might struggle to compete profitably.

Not so sure. There's money in Edinburgh! When BMI were struggling it was the GLA route they axed not EDI. I think it's one of those markets that expands with capacity.

[DC3 Dave]

Originally Posted by BAladdy

Hopefully LM will be much more successful operating the SEN-GLA route than Stobart/Flybe were.

In the last three months of operation the route averaged around 5,500 pax. The best month on the route achieved 6,873 pax, which is not that far from Loganair filling each and every aircraft for a month. And then add on those traveling to and from Stornoway.

Of course, there are no guarantees, and it may take a little time, but if they get the pricing right, Loganair could have a real winner on their hands.

[inOban]

Remember that a through ticket from London to Shetland currently costs about £300-, unless you have an overnight break in EDI or abz

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by DC3 Dave

In the last three months of operation the route averaged around 5,500 pax. The best month on the route achieved 6,873 pax, which is not that far from Loganair filling each and every aircraft for a month. And then add on those traveling to and from Stornoway.

There are a couple of subscription-based online tools out there, aimed at airports, airlines and industry analysts, which estimate route yields based on sampling available fares over a period of time and making assumptions about the booking profiles. Their results are by no means 100% accurate but the fact that a good number of subscribers continue to pay their not insubstantial fees suggests that they are not entirely useless either.

One of the well-established such tools estimates that during 2018 the average one-way yield between GLA and SEN was a bit shy of £30. (This isn't precise - maybe in reality it was £25, maybe it was £35, though only Stobart/flybe knows, but based on that imprecise data I'd bet that it wasn't £50!). Unfortunately even if Loganair fills every seat on every flight at that price, they won't come close to making money. Fuel alone for the sector is likely to be over £1000 (or £20/seat) and nav charges will be over £600 (£12/seat). So they will need to achieve far better yields, and the jet product will certainly help those yields, but I don't know if it'll be enough. I wish them well, I really do (especially for the Stornoway-London link, which as 01475 says would be transformative for the local economy), but I wouldn't be betting on the profitability of these routes. If in a year's time I am proven wrong, I'll be happy to eat humble pie.