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Old 13th Apr 2018, 08:15
  #261 (permalink)  
 
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Finnair is willing to sell itself to IAG but politicians in Finland do not like the idea
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 09:15
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A takeover target doesn't *have* to show anyone anything; but if they are a willing target (Deutsche BA...) they will.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 16:00
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SNN-SWF going to 7x weekly from October, was originally supposed to be going from 2x to 4x
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 16:26
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Having just returned from Austin, Norwegian comprehensively exceeded my expectations. A great product and staff that actually smile! All those Neo on order, access to Scandinavia, Gatwick slots and just importantly, pilots - no wonder IAG are looking at a possible take over!
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 17:46
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Agree with you Buster, I was impressed when I flew with them to NYC.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 19:00
  #266 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...s-also-at-risk

Delivery of two aircraft being delayed a month is quite a lame excuse for all this.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 19:03
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Yeah I agree. After all who cares for niceties like sustainability and profitability? After all it’s not as if they’re just keeping prices low to gain market share after which they wouldn’t dream of increasing them.

(Professor Frink’s sarcasm detector not needed).
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 20:32
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The IAG move for Norwegian is interesting. Clearly IAG fancy wiping out a dangerous competitor, access to a large fleet of modern aircraft and trained crews. Norwegian also opens up a weak area for IAG - Scandinavia.

Unlike some posters I don’t see Norwegian being folded into BA/EI and Vueling. I think it is more likely to be run as an IAG brand, like Niki was planned to be. Norwegian rewards might be replaced by Avios and some functions brought onto the IAG platforms. The exception I could see is the LEVEL operations, I think they could well be folded into Norwegian and the LGW operations would surely be refocused to compete less directly with BA.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 21:37
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Originally Posted by brian_dromey
The IAG move for Norwegian is interesting. Clearly IAG fancy wiping out a dangerous competitor, access to a large fleet of modern aircraft and trained crews. Norwegian also opens up a weak area for IAG - Scandinavia.

Unlike some posters I don’t see Norwegian being folded into BA/EI and Vueling. I think it is more likely to be run as an IAG brand, like Niki was planned to be. Norwegian rewards might be replaced by Avios and some functions brought onto the IAG platforms. The exception I could see is the LEVEL operations, I think they could well be folded into Norwegian and the LGW operations would surely be refocused to compete less directly with BA.

Unless Kros has indicated that he is willing to exit and sell there is no deal.

Gut feeling at the moment is there is no deal in the offinf and it is a speculative punt by IAG to test the water for a sale and prevent anybody else getting involved.

Bearing in mind Brexit and the fact that IAG will have its own issues because it cannot be more than 50% owned by non EU shareholders I don't see this going anywhere.

In the event that the Airline is for sale I very much doubt that IAG will be the only bidder as would fully expect LH and AF to be in there as well.

Possibly a TPG group bid as well with Ryanair having a share but that looks like a long shot.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 21:49
  #270 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo
Unless Kros has indicated that he is willing to exit and sell there is no deal.
He would be a fool not to take the last chance to get out before his house of cards collapses.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 22:03
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Originally Posted by TBSC
He would be a fool not to take the last chance to get out before his house of cards collapses.
You seem to assume his shareholders which ultimately are the Norwegian State will not back him.

Remember Norwegian Wealth Fund is worth in excess of $1 trillion, taking 1% and investing in Norwegian and see what happens.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 22:41
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It was the industry-wide assumption about the ME3 too, even a year ago and then... I guess Norwegian state funds need to apply due diligence as well therefore the pocket is deep but not without limits.
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 07:06
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Originally Posted by TBSC
He would be a fool not to take the last chance to get out before his house of cards collapses.
He's not on the hook for any liabilities, so if it's as bad as the naysayers insist why not just ride it down to the crash? It never did any CEO any career-damage and it's not like he's desperate for one more krone to pay his mortgage.

Of course it might be that Mr Kros has slightly more information on the actual financial state of his companies...
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 12:42
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Originally Posted by TBSC
It was the industry-wide assumption about the ME3 too, even a year ago and then... I guess Norwegian state funds need to apply due diligence as well therefore the pocket is deep but not without limits.
Norwegian Oil fund is worth 40% (and that was 6 months ago) of the size of whole UK economy.

Norway is allowed take $3 Billion a year from that as cash.

It could buy IAG in its Investment portfolio and it would seen as a minor investment.
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 12:47
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Originally Posted by TangoAlphad
Indeed. This regularly seems forgotten in the Norwegian bashing brigade. Yes no one denies they are pushing hard on expansion to the point even staff think christ... but the financial backing is huge.
I don't see Norwegian offering anything to IAG as a brand.

It does however offer significant competition to it across the Atlantic hence a need to snuff out the competition so price and yields TA can rise.

IAG requires BA to be fed at Heathrow for its TA service, Norwegian is offering customers a distinct choice and they are taking it.
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 13:28
  #276 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo
Norwegian Oil fund is worth 40% (and that was 6 months ago) of the size of whole UK economy.

Norway is allowed take $3 Billion a year from that as cash.

It could buy IAG in its Investment portfolio and it would seen as a minor investment.
The size of the Norwegian Sovereign Oil fund is irrelevant, they cannot cash it in tomorrow and it is not comparable to the size of the UK economy.

Who is to say that the find would actually want to invest in Norwegian? Throwing money around to support struggling companies is not something that investment funds do unless they can see a financial return, a proper business plan and a management team that can pull it off. I don't remember many political investments by the Norwegian Oil fund but I maybe wrong.

On the other hand, IAG can see clear synergies, it has a track record of running a financially successful airline and can also offer Kros an exit with the promise that the brand he has established will be preserved within the IAG stable.
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 13:36
  #277 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tigertanaka
The size of the Norwegian Sovereign Oil fund is irrelevant, they cannot cash it in tomorrow and it is not comparable to the size of the UK economy.
They can do what they like with it including cashing it in were they to choose.

Its size is very relevant because they can invest when and where they like and have already invested in Norwegian.

As for its size ................ being 40% of the size of UK economy is big, considering Norwegian whole economy is only 16% of its size.


Who is to say that the find would actually want to invest in Norwegian? Throwing money around to support struggling companies is not something that investment funds do unless they can see a financial return, a proper business plan and a management team that can pull it off. I don't remember many political investments by the Norwegian Oil fund but I maybe wrong.
Well they already have which blows that theory out the window.
Companies in high growth phases are not cash cows, they require huse levels of investment to invest for growth.

On the other hand, IAG can see clear synergies, it has a track record of running a financially successful airline and can also offer Kros an exit with the promise that the brand he has established will be preserved within the IAG stable.
IAG see getting Norwegian off the TA market and screwing their yields as the win here.

BA has a history of being involved in practices like this.................. Laker and Virgin spring easily to mind.
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 21:40
  #278 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo
They can do what they like with it including cashing it in were they to choose.
It is a sovereign wealth fund - by nature it is a long term investment fund.

Originally Posted by racedo
Its size is very relevant because they can invest when and where they like and have already invested in Norwegian.
Originally Posted by racedo

Well they already have which blows that theory out the window.
Companies in high growth phases are not cash cows, they require huse levels of investment to invest for growth.
It is not an Arabic wealth fund, EU state aid rules still apply. Just because they already own 10% doesn't give them a free hand to up their stake. In any event, the fund still has to believe that they will get a return on it.

Originally Posted by racedo
As for its size ................ being 40% of the size of UK economy is big, considering Norwegian whole economy is only 16% of its size.
I was not disputing it's size, I was saying that you can't compare funds with GDP. They are not apples and apples. UK pension fund values are well in excess of the UK's GDP.

Originally Posted by racedo
IAG see getting Norwegian off the TA market and screwing their yields as the win here.

BA has a history of being involved in practices like this.................. Laker and Virgin spring easily to mind.
Yes, I agree although there are lot of other reasons (IAG would also get access to a fairly new fleet, a load of pilots and the Scandinavian market). But if Kros does want to retire, IAG has the infrastructure in place to take over the business. Financial investors do not have that.
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Old 15th Apr 2018, 06:03
  #279 (permalink)  
 
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EU state aid rules still apply.
Do EU state aid rules apply in Norway?
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Old 15th Apr 2018, 06:21
  #280 (permalink)  
 
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As far as I am aware yes, they are not in the EU as such but have to abide by EU rules but have no say regarding laws, free movement etc. There are also in Schenghen.
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