Belfast City Airport-2

[Alteagod]

Even if they gave IAG bacl the slots are IAG allowed to operate?

[Cozy F]

Don’t believe so. They’re “Remedy Slots”, a trade-off for the EU sanctioning the acquisition of Aer Lingus by IAG.

If IAG started operating the same route again, the measure would cease to be a Remedy!

[BCALBOY]

The remedy slots are to enable a competitor to operate.
IAG could have continued to operate the BHD/LGW service and provided the LGW slots
From elsewhere.They chose to provide the slots by chopping BHD/LGW.

BA had to provide remedy slots on ABZ and EDI when they absorbed BMI.
They actually increased frequency on ABZ aNd made available the slots from elsewhere.

[ECR]

Originally Posted by Cozy F

Don’t believe so. They’re “Remedy Slots”, a trade-off for the EU sanctioning the acquisition of Aer Lingus by IAG.

If IAG started operating the same route again, the measure would cease to be a Remedy!

I don't think that is the way the remedy slots work. I think IAG are obliged to provide 5 slots available if an airline wants to provide competition of the Belfast and Dublin to London routes. I don't think there is anything stopping IAG also operating the route if they want to.

Understandably though the Belfast - Gatwick route was sacrificed to provide some of the slots as Aer Lingus would come off badly if in competition with both Ryanair and Easyjet.

I don't think there is much chance though of IAG using the slots for Belfast again though, as they think they can make more money using them elsewhere.

To be honest though, I think it could be profitable if IAG were operate the route under BA, as it would benefit from connecting traffic from other BA services at Gatwick as well as business one and one traffic. It don't think BA would need to compete with Easyjet in price in quite the same way as Aer Lingus would need to do.

[Chris_747]

Originally Posted by DC9_10

Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL They claim they are bonded by Spanish regional government funding. I asked them directly and also questioned BHD on social media some months ago and still awaiting a reply. Definitely would not book my holiday with this outfit.

Bit silly to be trying to claim they are not bonded or insinuate they are dodgy, if they didn't have the required licensing or bonding the CAA would have shut them down years ago since they launched from Manchester a few years back, especially after what happened with lowcost having a tiny bond for the size of their operation. Airports are not generally stupid, they do due diligence on any operator who they are looking to work with and one of the first things they'd check is to make sure an airline or tour operator is licensed etc before they start supporting them.

As always when booking flights with any operator, just book with a credit card and you're given full protection anyway under the consumer credit act. I had my money back in my account a week after Monarch went under as I had booked with a credit card.

[OneBellEnd]

That last post looked suspiciously like a ‘vote of confidence’ in a football manager!

Indeed use of a credit card offers some protection to the consumer in the regrettable event of any problems. Equally people can also fly from BFS to Palma with Thomas Cook, easyJet, Jet2 & TUI, all offering greater flexibility on a schedule much more intensive than one flight weekly.

Also, wouldn’t give too much credit to airports covering all eventualities through due diligence of airlines or operators. Pressure exists to grow business and it may well be just a matter of doing a deal with whoever shows interest!?

Still, good luck to them. It’s great to see new operators giving the NI market a go. Far too many are one season wonders or never even try at all.

[Chris_747]

Originally Posted by OneBellEnd

That last post looked suspiciously like a ‘vote of confidence’ in a football manager!

Indeed use of a credit card offers some protection to the consumer in the regrettable event of any problems. Equally people can also fly from BFS to Palma with Thomas Cook, easyJet, Jet2 & TUI, all offering greater flexibility on a schedule much more intensive than one flight weekly
Also, wouldn’t give too much credit to airports covering all eventualities through due diligence of airlines or operators. Pressure exists to grow business and it may well be just a matter of doing a deal with whoever shows interest!?

Still, good luck to them. It’s great to see new operators giving the NI market a go. Far too many are one season wonders or never even try at all.

Just a bit fed up of people always looking for some reason to put something down, seems to be a British culture thing more so than anything, it's like some people are actually willingly wanting companies to fail and people to lose their jobs, like over in the BHX thread about Primera, rather than just getting behind them and saying good luck as you have.

I stand by my comment about an airport due diligence though, having worked in route development before, we wouldn't put our brand name and money behind an airline or tour operator unless we knew they were a genuine outfit and had the required licensing to operate, regardless of commercial pressures, egg on face if it turns out they don't like Waterford last year. Given there are so few smaller operators these days, the CAA are all over any start-ups that are announced like a rash to make sure they are above board.

[DC9_10]

As I have stated, Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL Take your chances but I'd rather not. They don't come back to you when your asking the question.

[DC9_10]

As I have stated, Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL Take your chances but I'd rather not. They don't come back to you when your asking the question. Bit silly trying to back them up when facts mean facts.

[Alteagod]

A huge gamble all the same

[vrb03kt]

Originally Posted by Chris_747

Just a bit fed up of people always looking for some reason to put something down

I would suggest part of the reason might be that this is primarily a 'Professional Pilots' forum and these somewhat shifty operators (though I know nothing of this particular company) are being drafted in from elsewhere with questionable employment practices that undercut the existing established operators. That then forces the terms down for us, our companies trying to compete.

Not surprisingly, the turkeys don't want to vote for Christmas!

[Alteagod]

Why would Turkey not vote for Christmas. I thought they wanted to join the European Union. Not much hope if they vote to ban Christmas.

[Chris_747]

Originally Posted by DC9_10

As I have stated, Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL Take your chances but I'd rather not. They don't come back to you when your asking the question. Bit silly trying to back them up when facts mean facts.

They are a Spanish company so that's not surprising, bit like edreams and others based abroad. It says on their website they are licensed and bonded in Spain and has their licence number on there.

Yeah I guess you are right Alteagod, we've seen it with a lot of the Eastern European locos with their lower pay and conditions entering the market, although im not suggesting that's the case here.

[A320.b744]

By the looks of things, the JetsGoHolidays deal shows that BHD management are simply grasping at straws and will take whatever they can get their hands on.

The issue is that time is running out for BHD management to find new airlines and routes.

Back in 2014, when Brussels Airlines, KLM and Vueling announced they were commencing flights from BHD, BFS handled just 1,478,799 more passengers than BHD. It seemed entirely feasible at the time that BHD would soon break the 3 million mark, and that both airports would end up handling roughly the same amount of passengers. It made sense at the time for KLM et al to operate from BHD.

However, fast forward to 2017, and BFS managed to handle 3,276,706 more passengers than BHD. The gap is continuing to widen; in 2018, BFS will handle roughly 6.3 million passengers (up 450,000). BHD on the other hand will struggle to surpass 2.6 million. By 2019, BFS will be handling 4 million more passengers that BHD, unless BHD management can attract new routes and airlines.

Since 2014, BFS passenger numbers have increased by 1,802,608. BHD passenger numbers on the other hand have increased by just 4,701.

2014; 4,033,944 vs 2,555,145 = 1,478,799
2015; 4,391,307 vs 2,692,713 = 1,698,594
2016; 5,147,546 vs 2,665,139 = 2,482,407
2017; 5,836,552 vs 2,559,846 = 3,276,706
2018; 6,300,000 vs 2,600,000 = 3,700,000
2019; 6,600,000 vs 2,600,000 = 4,000,000

*2018 and 2019 figures are estimates based on the number of scheduled seats for sale, previous load factors, and previous passenger figures. BFS error +/-100,000 pax, BHD error +/-50,000 pax

BHD is being dwarfed by BFS, and this will have a huge impact on the future of BHD.
- New airlines coming to Belfast will likely choose the much larger BFS, which by 2020 could be handling as many as 7 million pax annually. More passengers means more revenue for the airport, which will allow for expansion and improvements to the terminal building, thus making BFS even more attractive to airlines. This will be compounded by the increased urgency to establish improved transport links between Belfast and BFS. BHD on the other hand will likely remain below the 3 million passenger mark.
- If BHD's passenger numbers continue to fall or stagnate, there will be increased pressure to look at the feasibility of the airport, and there will undoubtedly be calls to close the airport and move all operations to BFS.
- BHD management have been unable to persuade new airlines to remain at the airport, thus making it even more difficult for BHD to secure new routes and airlines in the future.

At this stage, Lufthansa Group is probably a lost cause for the airport. The performance of BHD-BRU was to determine the likelihood of further LH Group routes to the airport, and Eurowings are looking at BFS for their potential Belfast operations, having already rejected BHD. It seems highly plausible that if Eurowings start operations from BFS, potential Lufthansa flights to FRA or MUC would operate to BFS as well.

The failure of Vueling's BCN service has hampered plans for Iberia Express to operate BHD-MAD, and Aer Lingus' recent capacity slashes suggests that it is unlikely that BHD will receive good news from from IAG in the foreseeable future. Honestly, once the lock on Aer Lingus' LHR slots expires, I predict they will axe BHD completely from their route network.

I think that BHD management should be focusing their attention on Air France/KLM. As I've mentioned several times before, KLM have said on numerous occasions that they want to operate BHD-AMS x2-3 daily, and that they want to add more destinations (i.e. Paris CDG) from BHD in the medium term.

I would love to ask Ms. Best and her colleagues what's going on with regards to KLM. What confuses me is that in 2016 (the year KLM revealed they wanted a second daily BHD service), KLM had two x1 daily F70/E175 UK routes; AMS-BHD and AMS-INV. Passenger numbers on both routes in 2016 were identical, however INV received a second daily service in 2017, and in 2018 will be operated by the B737. BHD on the other hand has seen no increase in capacity since the route's inception. KLM have said time and time again that yield on AMS-BHD is excellent, so why on earth is nothing happening?

It is baffling that BHD management seem to be doing little to secure the future of what will be the airport's busiest international route in 2018.

[El Bunto]

BHD is being dwarfed by BFS, and this will have a huge impact on the future of BHD.

Only if your premise is that airports must continually expand. London City is a counter-example; after rapid initial expansion it has settled for the past decade around the 4.5 million mark, rising and falling slightly with the economy but showing no ambition to become a mega-airport.

If a business finds a niche and makes a profit why can't it just exist there? Why the constant demand for growth? Belfast City is point-to-point orientated, unlike Heathrow it doesn't depend on a depth of connections for its value. Perhaps it's as big as it's going to get, and maybe that's just fine.

I do agree that KLM expansion seems overdue. But bear in mind that since the started the Belfast City service they have also introduced the Dublin service which is now double-daily and may have drawn away potential for Belfast. In that regard they are to be commended contrary to their fellow Euroairlines who open a Dublin service and consider that sufficient for 'Ireland' as a whole; Wow, Lufthansa, Air France, Iberia, TAP, Scandinavian, Turkish...

[West Brit]

Eurowings? Has it moved on from the very public 'competition' from last October?

[West Brit]

The answer to the above will probably be no. I think we delude ourselves here, we had all the airlines in the world here last year, and not a peep out of the them!.

[A320.b744]

Originally Posted by El Bunto

Only if your premise is that airports must continually expand. London City is a counter-example; after rapid initial expansion it has settled for the past decade around the 4.5 million mark, rising and falling slightly with the economy but showing no ambition to become a mega-airport.

A couple of points; LCY is not a counter-example. Annual statistics show that LCY has expanded rapidly over the past decade, and has not settled as you suggest. In the past decade, passenger numbers have risen from 2,912,123 in 2007 to 4,330,439 in 2017. I don't know where you get your statistics from, but they certainly aren't from the CAA.

Furthermore, LCY is embarking on an ambitious terminal expansion, with the aim of increasing passenger numbers by another 2 million. LCY of course cannot become the next mega-airport, but that is solely because the airport is heavily constrained by its location. The airport is however showing ambition that it wants to keep expanding until it is no longer possible to do so.

Originally Posted by El Bunto

If a business finds a niche and makes a profit why can't it just exist there? Why the constant demand for growth? Belfast City is point-to-point orientated, unlike Heathrow it doesn't depend on a depth of connections for its value. Perhaps it's as big as it's going to get, and maybe that's just fine.

BHD will undoubtedly always be a niche airport, given that its runway length severely restricts its potential route network to as far as the Mediterranean. However, niche does not mean zero growth.

The problem faced by the airport currently is that BHD is heavily reliant on Flybe. In 2018, 3.3 million seats are being offered from BHD. Of those, 2.3 million are offered by Flybe, and over 900,000 are offered by IAG. If you look at the statistics, the airport's reliance on Flybe is getting worse. Between 2014-2017, BHD passenger numbers increased by 4,701. Flybe carried 221,236 more passengers from BHD in 2017 than in 2014, representing a 15.3% increase. Flybe's BHD market share has therefore increased by 8.7% since 2014.

If you split passenger numbers into three categories; Flybe, IAG, other, the results are as follows;

2014 Market Share;

Flybe: 56.5%
IAG: 41.9%
Other: 1.6%

2017 Market Share;

Flybe: 65.2%
IAG: 32.5%
Other: 2.3%

2018 Estimated Market Share;

Flybe: 69.3%
IAG: 28.2%
Other: 2.5%

* 2018 estimate is based on seats for sale and past load factors


Being a niche airport is not a bad thing, but for the future survival of the airport, BHD management really need to diversify their airline portfolio. In 2014, the airport was served by five airlines. That's the same number as in 2018.

Of course, having one airline taking a majority of the market share isn't necessarily a bad thing, but BHD management should be very worried that their largest tenant is in financial difficulties, and have already announced that total network capacity will be reduced by as much as 20%, so Flybe could slash BHD capacity at any given moment. What is also worrying is that the airport's second largest airline, Aer Lingus has already severely cut both routes and capacity over the last few years, and is likely to continue doing so.

Ideally, the 'other' category of airlines should contain 4-5 airlines, and amount to a 10% market share. However in 2017, only 58,903 passengers did not fly with Flybe or IAG - that's just 1 in 40 passengers. This over-reliance on its largest tenants means that the airport would be in a very dangerous position if either Flybe or Aer Lingus were to axe more services from BHD.

Originally Posted by El Bunto

I do agree that KLM expansion seems overdue. But bear in mind that since the started the Belfast City service they have also introduced the Dublin service which is now double-daily and may have drawn away potential for Belfast.

KLM announced their BHD intentions both before and after they commenced flights to DUB.

Originally Posted by El Bunto

In that regard they are to be commended contrary to their fellow Euroairlines who open a Dublin service and consider that sufficient for 'Ireland' as a whole; Wow, Lufthansa, Air France, Iberia, TAP, Scandinavian, Turkish...

You are aware that the majority of the airlines you've mentioned clearly don't consider a DUB service to be sufficient for the island as a whole, as they operate to either ORK or SNN as well.

Air France: DUB, ORK
Lufthansa: DUB, SNN
Iberia: DUB, ORK
SWISS: DUB, ORK
SAS: DUB, SNN

[EI-BUD]

In relation to Eurowings, if A320 as you mention that Lufthansa used BHD BRU as the experiment of a Belfast route, why now would Eurowings be actively considering BFS Airport? Surlely for a German airline, who will attract mainly German originating pax, the question will be would a Belfast service work, the Brussels airlines experiment didn't prove that one airport suits better over the other. Eurowings would not be concerned by opening hours, runway length etc.so nothing had proven or disproven for them that BFS or BHD is better..


I am also curious as to what the 'lock on Aer Lingus slots is about? My sources tell me that Aer Lingus is performing extremely well on LHR...'

BHD I'd agree is trailing behind BFS, but the pax levels are good considering that Europe's 3 big low cost airlines are big up the road. The pax volume is typically at a sustainable level for BHD, the biggest issue is whether given competitive pressures can the airport charge sustainable rates to its operating airlines....

[EI-A330-300]

IAG LHR slot 5 year commitment excludes BHD slots.