Cork-6
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Thats a great add for the airport and coming at a time when FR have been shrinking routes and bases. Hopefully both Zadar and Dubrovnik do well for the summer.
On AMS, given that FR, EI and KL have been slugging it out for quite a few years now, I would hope that EI will continue to operate. It might work out that the increased connection opportunities actually grow the route, rather than shrink it. EI shrinking the Cork base wouldn't be a good outcome at all. I think they might be struggling a bit with the A320 - its probably a little too large to launch higher frequency city-type routes. The likes of NCE, DUS, BRU, FCO have all been cancelled or reduced in frequency. Swiss seem to be doing well with their A220 size aircraft and AF/KL are launching with the E-Jets. Fingers crossed the larger IAG group orders the A220 and that EI get an allocation, there must be scope to increase the aircraft size on some of the UK routes like MAN, BHX and/or frequency increases to the likes of EDI, the re-introduction of LBA, NCL or SOU. Perhaps LCY in wild dreams.
On AMS, given that FR, EI and KL have been slugging it out for quite a few years now, I would hope that EI will continue to operate. It might work out that the increased connection opportunities actually grow the route, rather than shrink it. EI shrinking the Cork base wouldn't be a good outcome at all. I think they might be struggling a bit with the A320 - its probably a little too large to launch higher frequency city-type routes. The likes of NCE, DUS, BRU, FCO have all been cancelled or reduced in frequency. Swiss seem to be doing well with their A220 size aircraft and AF/KL are launching with the E-Jets. Fingers crossed the larger IAG group orders the A220 and that EI get an allocation, there must be scope to increase the aircraft size on some of the UK routes like MAN, BHX and/or frequency increases to the likes of EDI, the re-introduction of LBA, NCL or SOU. Perhaps LCY in wild dreams.
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I agree LCY was a dog for CityJet. They killed it off quickly from 3 to nothing. You do wonder if it would do better with EI operation and marketing, something like the A220 is a different league in terms of fuel burn and maintenance than the ARJ. At the time cityJet we’re retreating from LCY and became increasingly irrelevant. EI could make use of the aircraft from Cork during the middle of the day, impossible on the ARJ due to the cost-base. The economy is a bit stronger now and traffic between Canary Wharf and Ireland is likely to be stable, if not grow in a hard/no-deal Brexit scenario. It not a sure-fire winter, but a lot has changed since the last LCY attempt.
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The problem with LCY is not demand but profitability.
By the time you factor in high charges there and the fact it doesn't qualify for route incentives in Cork, you are facing a pretty hefty set of costs.
The destinations there can pretty much be divided into three
- Routes where there is heavy business demand that will tolerate high costs (this is most of them)
- Routes where it's the only London route from the source airport (e.g. Antwerp, Exeter)
- Holiday routes that are weekend-only
There are a couple of routes that don't fit that pattern (Billund, Vilnius), but I'm not privy to their economics and how they manage to work.
One thing you can say though is that Cork doesn't really fit into any of the three buckets above.
The major components of business traffic in Cork are Pharma, IT and Agri-business. With the exception of a small bit of IT work, central London and the Docklands area is not the destination for those. We have no significant Financial Services or Legal Services base.
To be honest, I'm not sure to what extent an A220 might work on UK routes. It might be the right aircraft for Manchester or Birmingham, but the ATRs and Dash 8s are probably right for the other routes. And while there are a few places where freeing up ATR capacity might be nice (extra frequency to BRS or EDI, or restarting SOU, maybe looking at somewhere in western France like Nantes as a year-round option), it's more likely that introducing an A220 and Stobart losing the highly profitable MAN and BHX would undermine the overall base and may lead to the loss of the ATRs altogether.
The only other use I could see for an A220 for UK routes would be to operate twice daily to Gatwick. It would be a feed for BA's mini-hub and Gatwick generates decent demand on it's own. But there are a few problems with that. Gatwick's set up encourages increasingly large aircraft and they won't be delighted to welcome an A220. Slots aren't exactly easy to find at Gatwick. Ryanair would probably react and make the route loss-making. BA's presence at Gatwick has fallen from 40% of slots to 20% of slots, so they don't really look all that committed there.
By the time you factor in high charges there and the fact it doesn't qualify for route incentives in Cork, you are facing a pretty hefty set of costs.
The destinations there can pretty much be divided into three
- Routes where there is heavy business demand that will tolerate high costs (this is most of them)
- Routes where it's the only London route from the source airport (e.g. Antwerp, Exeter)
- Holiday routes that are weekend-only
There are a couple of routes that don't fit that pattern (Billund, Vilnius), but I'm not privy to their economics and how they manage to work.
One thing you can say though is that Cork doesn't really fit into any of the three buckets above.
The major components of business traffic in Cork are Pharma, IT and Agri-business. With the exception of a small bit of IT work, central London and the Docklands area is not the destination for those. We have no significant Financial Services or Legal Services base.
To be honest, I'm not sure to what extent an A220 might work on UK routes. It might be the right aircraft for Manchester or Birmingham, but the ATRs and Dash 8s are probably right for the other routes. And while there are a few places where freeing up ATR capacity might be nice (extra frequency to BRS or EDI, or restarting SOU, maybe looking at somewhere in western France like Nantes as a year-round option), it's more likely that introducing an A220 and Stobart losing the highly profitable MAN and BHX would undermine the overall base and may lead to the loss of the ATRs altogether.
The only other use I could see for an A220 for UK routes would be to operate twice daily to Gatwick. It would be a feed for BA's mini-hub and Gatwick generates decent demand on it's own. But there are a few problems with that. Gatwick's set up encourages increasingly large aircraft and they won't be delighted to welcome an A220. Slots aren't exactly easy to find at Gatwick. Ryanair would probably react and make the route loss-making. BA's presence at Gatwick has fallen from 40% of slots to 20% of slots, so they don't really look all that committed there.
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Cork has traditionally been a tough market to make money in, but there does seem to be improvement. The Ryanair and KLM announcements are in the context of capacity shortages in the networks, so that is a positive sign. At the moment Cork seems to be doing very well and there is good diversity in the recent additions, in terms of airlines and destinations.
You're right, it could be swings and roundabouts in terms of adding A220s. The A220 really is a different machine to anything previously seen in the size class and that potentially opens a lot of opportunities for airports like Cork. It has comparable per-seat cost AND trip costs as an A320neo/737-8MAX, but carries ~140 passengers. If Ryanair had something a bit smaller would the Liverpool schedule be more attractive, for example?
You're right, it could be swings and roundabouts in terms of adding A220s. The A220 really is a different machine to anything previously seen in the size class and that potentially opens a lot of opportunities for airports like Cork. It has comparable per-seat cost AND trip costs as an A320neo/737-8MAX, but carries ~140 passengers. If Ryanair had something a bit smaller would the Liverpool schedule be more attractive, for example?
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Indeed. And commenting on aircraft not ordered by EI is a bit of a fools game. The point I wanted to make is that if EI or IAG were to introduce the A220 there could be a significant recasting of the timetable and route-map, allowing EI to increase frequency on some routes, rather than cut overall. A fleet of ~70/~150/~180 seats gives flexibility, shuffle aircraft between ATR/A220/A320 operation to suit demand at different times of the year.
AF/KL clearly want to build their connecting traffic from Ireland, but the KL times aren't ideal for connections to the US, so I think O&D will still be strong and that there will still be a fair amount of connecting traffic over the AF/KL hubs. Im surprised that AMS already only operates 9 weekly for Summer 2020. It operates on Friday and Sunday afternoons, so probably good O&D on those flights and would be relatively safe. The interesting thing will be if KL continue into the winter and what EI might do.
AF/KL clearly want to build their connecting traffic from Ireland, but the KL times aren't ideal for connections to the US, so I think O&D will still be strong and that there will still be a fair amount of connecting traffic over the AF/KL hubs. Im surprised that AMS already only operates 9 weekly for Summer 2020. It operates on Friday and Sunday afternoons, so probably good O&D on those flights and would be relatively safe. The interesting thing will be if KL continue into the winter and what EI might do.
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EI are required to maintain EI840/841 by the conditions imposed by competition authorities at the time IAG acquired them, so they have limited rule for manoeuvre. If KLM started an early flight, they may be able to get that reviewed though.
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840, wasn't it the case that there was a time period for this like 5 years take over?
brian_dromey
It's absolutely clear that Aer Lingus need a smaller sized jet which absolutely would come into its own in the Cork market. Few would argue this point. However, the cost and complexity of adding another type is prohibitive. They've worked hard to simplify the fleet over the years, removing types operated in house, like 146, Boeing and props. The addition of another type would leave to a separate pool of pilots, engineers, spares etc etc for what might be a small number of aircraft. In the fullness of time and a greater degree of integration through IAG may enable this, but I'd say now it's not on balance logical...
brian_dromey
It's absolutely clear that Aer Lingus need a smaller sized jet which absolutely would come into its own in the Cork market. Few would argue this point. However, the cost and complexity of adding another type is prohibitive. They've worked hard to simplify the fleet over the years, removing types operated in house, like 146, Boeing and props. The addition of another type would leave to a separate pool of pilots, engineers, spares etc etc for what might be a small number of aircraft. In the fullness of time and a greater degree of integration through IAG may enable this, but I'd say now it's not on balance logical...
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I can’t see anything about time limits in the commitments, but there does seem to be a clause about KLM guaranteeing a certain number of passengers and it being void of it falls below that. Also Aer Lingus can say they are cancelling, but have to continue if KLM object within a timeframe. The commitment is also only to one flight a day, nothing about the specific flight or timings, but given the scarcity of slots at Schiphol, Aer Lingus don’t have much room for manoeuvre on that.
I think the restriction after IAG takeover was no reduction on Shannon and Cork to LHR for 7 years, and none ex DUB for 5 years but I could be totally mixed up there.
As regards LCY and the A220, LCY can only handle 2 at a time on the ground due limited apron space. SWR run them in their already, I think AFR are due to shortly, not sure about Air Baltic. With the failure of the Sukhoi and the E2 apparently not stacking up financially compared to the A220, it might start appearing in quite a few European fleets
And I totally agree Cork is doing well. Fastest growing airport in the country, great to see.
As regards LCY and the A220, LCY can only handle 2 at a time on the ground due limited apron space. SWR run them in their already, I think AFR are due to shortly, not sure about Air Baltic. With the failure of the Sukhoi and the E2 apparently not stacking up financially compared to the A220, it might start appearing in quite a few European fleets
And I totally agree Cork is doing well. Fastest growing airport in the country, great to see.
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The commitments made by Aer Lingus are available to find on the EU competition authorities website.
Basically, they come down to three areas
1) Services from Ireland to London where there were competition concerns on the point to point.
2) Services from Ireland to the hubs of other carriers where there was a pre-existing code share arrangement in place.
3) Services from Dublin to Chicago, where there were also competition concerns over the point to point on that route.
Conditions for each scenario were quite different from
each other
Basically, they come down to three areas
1) Services from Ireland to London where there were competition concerns on the point to point.
2) Services from Ireland to the hubs of other carriers where there was a pre-existing code share arrangement in place.
3) Services from Dublin to Chicago, where there were also competition concerns over the point to point on that route.
Conditions for each scenario were quite different from
each other
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Here's what I found online in terms of the 2015 Commission decision and the commitments: https://ec.europa.eu/competition/mer...4564413_EN.pdf
For (2) and (3), I see EI made commitments to provide access to other carriers (via Special Prorate Agreements for interline ticketing, access to Frequent Flyer Programmes, etc.) and there is a provision that if EI increases capacity on a route to a hub, any SPA will be valid on that extra capacity too, but I confess I don't see anything about KLM guaranteeing a minimum number of passengers. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong document - could you point us to the right one? Thanks!
For (2) and (3), I see EI made commitments to provide access to other carriers (via Special Prorate Agreements for interline ticketing, access to Frequent Flyer Programmes, etc.) and there is a provision that if EI increases capacity on a route to a hub, any SPA will be valid on that extra capacity too, but I confess I don't see anything about KLM guaranteeing a minimum number of passengers. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong document - could you point us to the right one? Thanks!
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The conditions around the IAG takeover are interesting and not something I'd seen before for ORK-AMS. If someone else enters the market, do these conditions still apply? I think there has been a lot of anxiety about what the entry of KL might mean for EI at Cork, I suspect there is room for both EI and KL, particularly if they continue to have the KL code on the morning service.
Union agreements are one thing. The other issue is that the E190 just does not have competitive costs with an A320/737. It burns a very similar amount of fuel per trip as an A320 and more than a NEO/MAX, but with ~80 less passengers. Outside of feeding hubs they make no sense. The A220/C-Series is a very different proposition, it burns less fuel per-seat than an A320 and a comparable amount to the NEO/MAX. Its more a modern-day 737-500 than regional jet.
Union agreements are one thing. The other issue is that the E190 just does not have competitive costs with an A320/737. It burns a very similar amount of fuel per trip as an A320 and more than a NEO/MAX, but with ~80 less passengers. Outside of feeding hubs they make no sense. The A220/C-Series is a very different proposition, it burns less fuel per-seat than an A320 and a comparable amount to the NEO/MAX. Its more a modern-day 737-500 than regional jet.
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What I had came from the Commitments document that is referenced in Section IX in your document. However, what I have is from an document from the investigation phase that was the latest one I could find, but I can't guarantee it was final. I would presume anything actually published on the Commission website is actually final.
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Hopefully it will be a good year for Cork, with a lot more diversity than we have seen for many years.
So far we have:
KLM - daily to AMS
Air France - twice daily to CDG
Lauda - three times weekly to ZAR (I think this was announced as an FR route, but the base is opening as Lauda)
TUI - Lanzarote
FR - Katowice
So far we have:
KLM - daily to AMS
Air France - twice daily to CDG
Lauda - three times weekly to ZAR (I think this was announced as an FR route, but the base is opening as Lauda)
TUI - Lanzarote
FR - Katowice