Cork-6

[brian_dromey]

IAG won't have far to look, if they really are looking. BA are getting a pair of A321NEOs in 2018. Those aren't the LR versions, though. The first LR is coming to EI in Q1 2019, swiftly followed by another pair. The last 4 will be delivered in 2020. If IAG really do want to compete with Norwegian in summer 2018 they'll need to find some more 757s, or lease-in capacity as in previous years.

[bannercounty]

Originally Posted by brian_dromey

Im slightly skeptical of Norwegians intentions. That said, Im sure Aer Lingus / IAG will be reacting with fury to Norwegians attempts at SNN and ORK. BA are launching all sorts of routs from Gatwick if Norwegian do, so we may yet see an A321LR at Cork, once they are delivered. IAG seem determined to strangle Norwegians ambitions at making long-haul low-fares work. If they succeed it won't be good for customers, in the end.

BA are now in retraction mode and not challenging mode- Oakland gone in 2018 and MCO cut. Pax don't often fly on price solely but the way the IAG crowd have aligned themselves they have upset so many loyal passengers with the lost luggage fiasco and the disastrous AerClub. You just can't trust Aer Lingus and I would advise all to avoid if at all possible. Having to wait a minimum 30 days for a response for lost luggage/ flight compo/ reimbursement for clothing due to lost laughed etc is a joke especially considering when you book a flight then coats is taken there and then. Why can't the Aer Lingus spell out what you are entitled to per person per day when there is lost luggage instead of saying "we will assess your claim"?

[_aax1]

BA hardly in retraction mode when they're refitting all their LGW fleet to have a lower cost per seat than Norwegian.

Oakland isn't gone? Reduced by 1x weekly, same as MCO and they're relaunching LAS from LGW so more competition for DY.

Pax are flying on price solely in economy that's the problem with the entire industry at the moment, pax don't want to pay much for flights and hence the cuts, cuts, cuts by the likes of IAG in order to keep demand and survive. Welcome to the ryanairsation of the long haul industry and will further continue with the introduction of the A321neo and A321LR.

Hopefully Aer Lingus uses one of those A321LR at Cork etc, will mean a proper US primary airport connection, not the Frankfurt Hahn of the east coast of the USA as you see with Norwegian.

[AerRyan]

Don't see it, EI aren't interested in Cork, no more so than before NAI arrived.

A 3pw service that's doing somewhat okay, is not a foundation for a market. In years to come it may grow and then you can revalue it but at the moment, no chance.

[840]

Indeed. I would imagine that any A320NEOs used would be a defensive option at Dublin and Shannon rather than something to expand in Cork.

In the meantime, figures for August see passengers up 7.2%

At the same time, detailed route figures are available for May from the CSO. Without putting all the figures up here, some notable features (comparing May 2017 to May 2016)

• 60% of LCY traffic seems to have migrated to other London airports
• Amsterdam and Paris down a significant amount. I believe both lost rotations to sun destinations. It's a bit of a contrast to the bizarre war on the AMS route going on in Dublin
• KEF carried an average of 74 pax per flight in May. While loads will always be a bit lower in the first few weeks of a flight, it indicates the struggle on the route
• Disappointing performance from German routes, with Munich down 14% and Dusseldorf down 10%. Did days of week mean fewer flights on one or both of these?
• Sun routes a mixed bag. Serious growth on Malaga, Alicante, Palma, Split [new] and Dubrovnik, but slight declines on Barcelona, Faro and the Canaries. Overall positive though.
• Good growth on some UK regional routes (MAN, EDI, GLA, BHX, SOU, NQY), but others being down (CWL, BRS, LPL, NCL [a particularly steep fall), LBA [Canned])
• Very small decline on Polish routes, but really only fractional

[brian_dromey]

The CSO statistics are great, I haven't seen them before, thanks for bring them to my attention.
7.2% growth is respectable, but I think some of the recent casualties show a trend. LCY and LBA seem to have diluted yield on existing routes without significantly growing their own market. WX waved the white flag quickly and didn't even try twice daily, for example. MAN soaked up most of the losses from LPL and LBA, looking at the numbers. Im not surprised that LPL has declined, the schedule isn't great really and LBA probably dilutes yield on MAN for EI. It probably only makes sense if there are zero charges, why compete with yourself?
I would also guess that a lot of demand is helping the growth numbers at DUB too, especially where frequency is poor, like a lot of the EU city routes. With door-to-door motorway, express busses and much more frequent flights its tough to compete with and might explain some of the weakness.

[AerRyan]

Originally Posted by 840

[*]Amsterdam and Paris down a significant amount. I believe both lost rotations to sun destinations. It's a bit of a contrast to the bizarre war on the AMS route going on in Dublin

AMS decreases mainly due to the war going on in Dublin Infact, much lower prices have been witnessed as of late, compared to Corks premium (by comparison) prices.

[cloudier]

A lot of AMS flights cancelled to to crew illness

[Jack1985]

Where did you pull this one out of ? There hasn't been one cancellation on any of the ORK-AMS-ORK flights due to crew illness.

[cloudier]

for a time this year the flights most affected by crew illness/shortage were AMS and LHR which were CANCELLED at very short notice one AMS flight was checking in passengers when a crew member became ill(we were told) and the flight was cancelled to say that NO AMS flight was cancelled is a lie

[Jack1985]

One flight ex-ORK in 2017 was cancelled due to crew illness this year to LHR. So the only lie I see is your statement ''A lot of AMS flights cancelled to to crew illness'' - Not one Amsterdam flight has been cancelled related to such.

[cloudier]

we were told it was crew illness

[eirbus06]

News I've received tonight is that Swiss are going to 3 weekly next summer. Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

[LGWAlan]

And now timetabled in Amadeus as so:
1LZ*LX2561 3 ORK ZRH 1350 1705 0 16MAY18 26SEP18 CS3 2:15
2LZ*LX2561 15 ORK ZRH 1350 1705 0 01JUN18 28SEP18 CS1 2:15

[AerRyan]

Norwegian loads beginning to fall a little, and forward bookings for winter are poor at best.

However, service did great in the summer.

[fjr13]

I see Volotea have launched their summer 2018 schedule.Verona goes to twice weekly for Jun.July and August,extra Wed flight.More positive news

[fjr13]

+6% growth for September.The positive news continues.My sources say new routes to be announced shortly, not from existing carriers, exciting times ahead

[cloudier]

non existing airlines badly needed, existing airlines not interested LHR early morning flight cancelled again to day We have more cancelled flights on LHR and AMS this year than diversions

[tom1975]

Pricing

It looks like the pricing challenges in Cork have finally gotten some attention. This has been an issue in Cork for years... While I can appreciate yield and revenue management is critical to an airline operation, my opinion has always been that there were not watching Cork, and focusing on other areas.
Price difference between Aer Lingus flights from Cork and Dublin raised in The Seanad

[840]

I see also that airport management are making noises about getting services to Nice and Bratislava. I would read that as meaning it's just a wait to announce the route.

There is a number of potential operators for Nice, but Bratislava is a strange one. Only two potential candidates - Ryanair and Wizzair. A return for Wizzair seems most unlikely, while Bratislava doesn't really seem to match with Ryanair's strategy at Cork.