Flybe-9
Join Date: Feb 2017
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VHF4 is correct. It will collapse if the owners wish it to do so. Unfortunately, it looks look like they want it to fail, strip assets and start again. Arguably, the cheapest option for them. The line of 'if flybe did not exist, you would have to invent it. Yes, it may well be re-invented into a profitable operation but not in its present form. Easyjet, Ryanair, Eastern Airways and Loganair to name a few could easily pick up the bread and butter routes at very short notice. I think the government is having second thoughts as they have sent in consultants who will undoubtably say that flybe has burnt through hundreds of millions of pounds in a short space of time and any loan will probably never get paid back. If and when it goes under the government will most likely be blamed for letting it fail. But i am sure we all feel here its the shockingly poor running of the company and the lack of sane strategy that have given it a death by a thousand cuts.
It will collapse if the owners wish it to do so. Unfortunately, it looks look like they want it to fail, strip assets and start again.
Join Date: Feb 2018
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Why would the likes of Easyjet and Ryanair replace the lost capacity? More demand for their flights means they can charge more and make more profit. And where would they get the extra aircraft from that they'll need? As for Eastern and Loganair the former isn't in actually in great shape and where would the latter get the aircraft needed to expand even just to takeover the Scottish routes?
I do think that if Flybe go under so does the bulk of their route network. Which i why I hope someone will get on with it and stump up the cash required to keep them going.
I do think that if Flybe go under so does the bulk of their route network. Which i why I hope someone will get on with it and stump up the cash required to keep them going.
Join Date: Feb 2020
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https://www.aeroinside.com/incidents/airline/flybe
Looking at this it would Appear that engine failures are almost as common as landing gear failures...
Good job they employ some top-class pilots.....
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PDX
8 million potential passengers and cherry pick the routes. so ryanair and easy will look to see what it profitable. And lets be honest, some routes would be.Thats why other airlines can step in. The original consortium may be now looking at the business model and think it cannot work in its present form. If I am wrong, why have they been posting huge losses and burning through hundreds of millions of pounds. I have been told Eastern have just leased two 190's. So easily and at short notice can get aircraft as these are already on their AOC. Why go through the connect saga? may have seemed a good prospect at the time but obviously not now.
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8 million potential passengers and cherry pick the routes. so ryanair and easy will look to see what it profitable. And lets be honest, some routes would be.Thats why other airlines can step in. The original consortium may be now looking at the business model and think it cannot work in its present form. If I am wrong, why have they been posting huge losses and burning through hundreds of millions of pounds. I have been told Eastern have just leased two 190's. So easily and at short notice can get aircraft as these are already on their AOC. Why go through the connect saga? may have seemed a good prospect at the time but obviously not now.
Join Date: Nov 2005
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So what is the actual issue with Flybe? Is it riddle with debt like Thomas Cook was or is it simply operating a business model that is unprofitable? If it's debt, then surely Connect would've had sight of this before hand? If it's outright unprofitable then why get involved in the first place? If it could be profitable but needs to chop the fat, why are they so reluctant to invest and start making changes and why is the government having second thoughts all of a sudden?
Stobart are still heavily involved in this, so if Flybe were to go under, could they not just do what Loganair did with BMI and transfer the aircraft they want, continue as normal in terms of flights but start again in terms of HQ staff, crews etc etc on their own terms?
Stobart are still heavily involved in this, so if Flybe were to go under, could they not just do what Loganair did with BMI and transfer the aircraft they want, continue as normal in terms of flights but start again in terms of HQ staff, crews etc etc on their own terms?
Join Date: Apr 2008
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Why would the likes of Easyjet and Ry anair replace the lost capacity? More demand for their flights means they can charge more and make more profit. And where would they get the extra aircraft from that they'll need? As for Eastern and Loganair the former isn't in actually in great shape and where would the latter get the aircraft needed to expand even just to takeover the Scottish routes?
I do think that if Flybe go under so does the bulk of their route network. Which i why I hope someone will get on with it and stump up the cash required to keep them going.
I do think that if Flybe go under so does the bulk of their route network. Which i why I hope someone will get on with it and stump up the cash required to keep them going.
Join Date: Mar 2010
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So what is the actual issue with Flybe? Is it riddle with debt like Thomas Cook was or is it simply operating a business model that is unprofitable? If it's debt, then surely Connect would've had sight of this before hand? If it's outright unprofitable then why get involved in the first place? If it could be profitable but needs to chop the fat, why are they so reluctant to invest and start making changes and why is the government having second thoughts all of a sudden?
Stobart are still heavily involved in this, so if Flybe were to go under, could they not just do what Loganair did with BMI and transfer the aircraft they want, continue as normal in terms of flights but start again in terms of HQ staff, crews etc etc on their own terms?
Stobart are still heavily involved in this, so if Flybe were to go under, could they not just do what Loganair did with BMI and transfer the aircraft they want, continue as normal in terms of flights but start again in terms of HQ staff, crews etc etc on their own terms?
Join Date: Feb 2020
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I think the problem is the new team at the treasury are taking a far more hard nosed view than did their predecessors who appeared to jump in feet first without much analysis of flybes long term survival odds or whether a government should be baling out a airline who’s owners have very deep pockets and hardly deserve aid from the tax payer
It appears the new lot are delving fairly deeply into the business which TBH can’t be a good thing from the owners view ...... Who i feel are basically trying to scam UK PLC out of a lot of cash .
It appears the new lot are delving fairly deeply into the business which TBH can’t be a good thing from the owners view ...... Who i feel are basically trying to scam UK PLC out of a lot of cash .
Join Date: Feb 2018
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You are being slightly naive if you don’t think that EZY/RYR would not want to cherry pick a core handful of the most profitable routes. These airlines have built their business models on being opportunistic over the years and I’m certain they could readjust their networks to fly W patterns on said routes at fairly short notice if the money stacks up!
I do hope that we never have to find out whether I'm being naive or not!
I think the problem is the new team at the treasury are taking a far more hard nosed view than did their predecessors
Why haven't easy and RYR already cherry picked the profitable routes? What's stopping them?
There is a large body of competition law which make various dubious practices illegal - eg price dumping, and imposes hefty penalties. The likes of Easyjet will be aware of this and want to make very sure they don't cause competition regulators to want to start asking questions. Any kind of public probe by competition aithorities can eat up huge amounts of management time, distracting them from strategic growth, cost millions, and create a damaging public image. It is therefore very important that if Easyjet do launch on Flybe routes, that they be able to prove very easily that they were not flying unprofitably so as to push Flybe out of business, and that there should be no uncertainty in a competition regulator's mind that they might have been doing this
It's also likely that Easyjet know they cannot compete with Flybe on frequency on business-centric routes, so will only want to launch when it really looks like Flybe won't be around for much longer.
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 23rd Feb 2020 at 12:57.
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So what is the actual issue with Flybe? Is it riddle with debt like Thomas Cook was or is it simply operating a business model that is unprofitable? If it's debt, then surely Connect would've had sight of this before hand? If it's outright unprofitable then why get involved in the first place? If it could be profitable but needs to chop the fat, why are they so reluctant to invest and start making changes and why is the government having second thoughts all of a sudden?
Stobart are still heavily involved in this, so if Flybe were to go under, could they not just do what Loganair did with BMI and transfer the aircraft they want, continue as normal in terms of flights but start again in terms of HQ staff, crews etc etc on their own terms?
Stobart are still heavily involved in this, so if Flybe were to go under, could they not just do what Loganair did with BMI and transfer the aircraft they want, continue as normal in terms of flights but start again in terms of HQ staff, crews etc etc on their own terms?
Join Date: Feb 2020
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It’s very possible the owners are trying their hand and if the government doesn’t come up the goods they will simply plough their own funds in , They have everything to gain and nothing to lose .
Join Date: Dec 2012
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Easyjet have already put Birmingham-Glasgow and Birmingham-Edinburgh on sale. Birmingham to Amsterdam, Dusseldorf and Paris are probably being considered carefully
There is a large body of competition law which make various dubious practices illegal - eg price dumping, and imposes hefty penalties. The likes of Easyjet will be aware of this and want to make very sure they don't cause competition regulators to want to start asking questions. Any kind of public probe by competition aithorities can eat up huge amounts of management time, distracting them from strategic growth, cost millions, and create a damaging public image. It is therefore very important that if Easyjet do launch on Flybe routes, that they be able to prove very easily that they were not flying unprofitably so as to push Flybe out of business, and that there should be no uncertainty in a competition regulator's mind that they might have been doing this
It's also likely that Easyjet know they cannot compete with Flybe on frequency on business-centric routes, so will only want to launch when it really looks like Flybe won't be around for much longer.
There is a large body of competition law which make various dubious practices illegal - eg price dumping, and imposes hefty penalties. The likes of Easyjet will be aware of this and want to make very sure they don't cause competition regulators to want to start asking questions. Any kind of public probe by competition aithorities can eat up huge amounts of management time, distracting them from strategic growth, cost millions, and create a damaging public image. It is therefore very important that if Easyjet do launch on Flybe routes, that they be able to prove very easily that they were not flying unprofitably so as to push Flybe out of business, and that there should be no uncertainty in a competition regulator's mind that they might have been doing this
It's also likely that Easyjet know they cannot compete with Flybe on frequency on business-centric routes, so will only want to launch when it really looks like Flybe won't be around for much longer.
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BHX & MAN CDG & AMS
The major change was when Connect bought Flybe and the EU ruled that the BHX- AMS and CDG were in effect now monopolies and that anyone could take the 5 slot pairs off Flybe on Amsterdam and 3 slot pairs on BHX - CDG if they wanted them.
Something happened but nobody has explained what but Flybe dropped BHX - AMS to 4 daily from 5 this summer and Air France move the first CDG - BHX inbound to 10.25 just 10 minutes after Flybe and it was expected that another airline had shown interest in at least one slot pair on both routes. The rumour was that easyjet considered them but the slot timings were that of Flybe which are BHX based slots and easyjet of course don't have a base at BHX.
It has now ended up a total mess on BHX - CDG as AF have moved their first inbound to 10.25 and outbound to 11,10 leaving BHX woefully short of early morning outbound seats and anyone arriving CDG long-haul at 6am has to wait 4 hours to connect to BHX..
Also last year the 195 operated at least 2 of the 3 CDG's and of course they only will have the 88 seat 175 this summer and AF have left two of the 3 services as HOP despite load factors of 80-90% last summer.
Flybe also quietly added back the 5 daily Amsterdam rotation again indicating another airline might have changed their mind.
The net result on Amsterdam is little change with 5 KLM and 5 Flybe at decent times but CDG is a total and utter disaster offering 88 seats outbound between 6am and 11am - pathetic.
Pete
The net result on Amsterdam is little change with 5 KLM and 5 Flybe at decent times but CDG is a total and utter disaster offering 88 seats outbound between 6am and 11am - pathetic.
Join Date: Nov 1999
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Clause 1.3.7 on page 178 of that document. The Slot Release Agreement contains a perpetual restriction on sale or transfer.
These slots are leasehold and not freehold, to use a property analogy. After three years you can make some changes to the leasehold property by redecorating without the landlord’s permission but you never own the freehold.
Also bear in mind that Virgin Atlantic itself had operated two of the three years with Little Red. If it was within a year of winning the jackpot of Heathrow slots as you suggest, it is highly unlikely to have thrown in the towel with that prize so close by.
These slots are leasehold and not freehold, to use a property analogy. After three years you can make some changes to the leasehold property by redecorating without the landlord’s permission but you never own the freehold.
Also bear in mind that Virgin Atlantic itself had operated two of the three years with Little Red. If it was within a year of winning the jackpot of Heathrow slots as you suggest, it is highly unlikely to have thrown in the towel with that prize so close by.
