Flybe-9
75% of shareholders have to accept for the deal to go through. Andrew Tinkler is sitting on 10%. Assuming that he has paid more than 1p per share, he needs to get 25% to be certain of not losing money. If he succeeds in buying a blocking stake, is he going to force his way in to the deal?
One you have 50% you can appoint the board and everybody else.
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In a Stockmarket takeover you need 50.00001% to have won control. When you have 90% of the shareholding you can cancel the Stockmarket listing and acquire the rest of the shares and sent a cheque to the owners of said shares at the value of the offer. This happened with Glazer takeover at Manchester United among many that have taken place.
One you have 50% you can appoint the board and everybody else.
One you have 50% you can appoint the board and everybody else.
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Runway....my thinking is that Tinkler owns about 8% of Stobart. With circa 350m shares in circulation that equates to about 28m in his ownership. As a result of the bid on Friday, Stobarts share price increased 7.7% (10.8p) increasing the value of his stake by about £3m. His purchase in Flybe would have cost him circa £750k meaning he's still up over £2m. If I were him, protecting the value of his Stob stake I'd want the consortium bid to go through. Bizarre - yes. Crazy - maybe not as much as it might appear.
If I owned 10.1% I would object to the scheme of arrangement as it is an attempt to get around normal Stock Exchange rules. Stock Exchange may also become an interested party with anybody taking a legal case. In reality only people that will benefit from this are Lawyers.
There is a real danger that this offer ends up in legal limbo because of Mr Tinkler's purchase. Sitting dispassionately on it I cannot blame someone using whatever legal means necessary in a bid to protect himself. In many ways it was a masterstroke of an ambush which questions the bidders ability.
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Going back to Stobart’s involvement, if this deal goes through the risk associated with their investment/involvement will surely be minimised by safeguarding (potentially significant) funds owed to them from the two ATRs flying out of IOM and sales from the SEN franchise operation?
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Not sure why so many are so fascinated with the idea of BE providing feed at MAN. What percentage of BE's operation would that cover? Only a small fration of all MAN flights which are only a fraction of all BE flights. So VS clearly must have something else in mind if they are willling to put that millstone of an airline around their neck.
Then why did Virgin not simply keep Little Red in the air for a little bit longer? Would have been a less complicated move compared to burdening Virgin with a 70+ aircraft airline about to go under.
Then why did Virgin not simply keep Little Red in the air for a little bit longer? Would have been a less complicated move compared to burdening Virgin with a 70+ aircraft airline about to go under.
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The Acquisition will enable Flybe to benefit from committed strategic investment partners in terms of Cyrus, Stobart Group and Virgin Atlantic (through Connect Airways) and from an enhanced presence at London Heathrow Airport and Manchester Airport with potential to grow further in London Southend Airport.
From the offer document. We are only talking about MAN because the potential owners want an ‘enhanced presence’ there. They also want to grow at SEN, they also want a network carrier with Virgin Atlantic and they are also committed to regional flying. At the moment it is a confused strategy with the three partners seemingly having different objectives and all of them, at the moment, being included.
From the offer document. We are only talking about MAN because the potential owners want an ‘enhanced presence’ there. They also want to grow at SEN, they also want a network carrier with Virgin Atlantic and they are also committed to regional flying. At the moment it is a confused strategy with the three partners seemingly having different objectives and all of them, at the moment, being included.
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I am assumming that in life, you have come across something that someone did, when asked why ? The response is "Well appeared to be a really good sound idea at the time" plus a combination of Ego that they knew what they were doing.
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So he says it is an ‘investment decision’. Either the shareholders vote through the deal and Tinkler is sitting on a £750,000 loss, or Connect have to pay considerably more, or Tinkler will have to find an alternative plan to avoid flybe running out of cash. So who is he kidding?
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This is all too weird
What’s happening to the UK right now? Seems like everyone is losing their marbles
Virgin are in far bigger trouble than everyone realises if they ‘need’ Flybe for feed
What’s happening to the UK right now? Seems like everyone is losing their marbles
Virgin are in far bigger trouble than everyone realises if they ‘need’ Flybe for feed
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Given that, as far as I see it, Virgin Trains habitually is the least reliable / liked / punctual UK train operator, it sounds like a brilliant idea to re-brand the UK's largest (and for all practical purposes, outside niches only remaining) domestic airline as a Virgin company.
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Stobart realise that RE is too small for economy of scale and too dependent on the EI contract. This drove the planned merger with cityJet. flyBe is laden with debt, has had more strategies and rebranding than hot dinners. Stobart have experience in leasing and franchise operations, but don't have a strong airline brand. They nearly have no interest in developing one either, or they would have done so at SEN. Slapping a Virgin sticker on flyBe allows them to make the argument that "this time is different". I share the skepticism that 20 flights a day into LHR (most of them in the afternoon/evenings) isn't great for feeding VS. MAN is a bit better, but the current VS network is focussed on O&D and is limited in terms of destinations for a transatlantic hub.
It's probably not ideal, but having access to better sales and marketing teams seems to have worked reasonably well for RE & EI. The RE operations at Cork, for example, feed nothing, but have grown significantly since the planes were painted green.
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Given that, as far as I see it, Virgin Trains habitually is the least reliable / liked / punctual UK train operator, it sounds like a brilliant idea to re-brand the UK's largest (and for all practical purposes, outside niches only remaining) domestic airline as a Virgin company.
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Virgin have done a good job on the WCML and most customers are happy with them. ECML didin't work so well. Remember that train operators have to work within the constraints of the DfT franchising system. That is never mentioned by Mr Grayling. WCML is horribly constrained capacity wise.
Back to thread - I hope this offer works out or another is forthcoming. I don't know how long Flybe can last without the £20 million investment but it can't be long- if they go the effect on BHX, SOU, EXT and NQY would be a bit of a catastrophe.
Back to thread - I hope this offer works out or another is forthcoming. I don't know how long Flybe can last without the £20 million investment but it can't be long- if they go the effect on BHX, SOU, EXT and NQY would be a bit of a catastrophe.
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Where on earth do you get that idea from? As far as the WCML is concerned, the Manchester - Euston service for example is every 20 minutes and punctuality has improved significantly in recent years. Are you aware of some of the problems passengers in the North have experienced with the likes of Northern and TPE?
Virgin Trains named worst rail service: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...vice-2sh3pdqr6
Highest number of complaints: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ail-firms.html
Virgin Trains West Coast is most complained about train company: https://www.insider.co.uk/news/virgi...aints-12814110
Virgin Trains hires extra staff to deal with rising complaints: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ng-complaints/
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On the subject of Virgin Trains...
Flybe are the only operators from Birmingham and Manchester to Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Virgin Trains also seem to be the major (and sometimes sole) operator of trains on these routes.
Is this likely to be a monopoly concern around any takeover or does the fact the Virgin Group will have a minority stake in both enterprises shield them?
At the moment, there seems to be a restriction on access to tracks for competitors to Virgin Trains on many routes.
Flybe are the only operators from Birmingham and Manchester to Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Virgin Trains also seem to be the major (and sometimes sole) operator of trains on these routes.
Is this likely to be a monopoly concern around any takeover or does the fact the Virgin Group will have a minority stake in both enterprises shield them?
At the moment, there seems to be a restriction on access to tracks for competitors to Virgin Trains on many routes.