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Old 16th Nov 2018, 09:22
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Originally Posted by 01475

We can't really know who potential suitors might be without knowing what the strong parts of their network are. If Belfast or London City; IAG? If the SW of England, the European routes, or the Scottish Routes... Sector? If it is a mish-mash of random stuff across the network; either Eastern or nobody? And potential matches for the SAS flying... I guess that's CityJet or Nordica?
I posted this link a week or two ago - an estimate by an aviation consultancy firm (with which I have no connection) of flyBE profitability by airport. Of course these are averages and will vary by route. I note from the comments below the chart, that the consultants estimate that for example out of 32 BHX routes there are 10 profitable, 4 marginal and 18 loss-making. I believe their numbers are based on screen-scraping fares, estimating averages, and looking at flyBE's published accounts to estimate the cost base, so they are not gospel, but they seem a reasonable first estimate.

Overall the network seems enough of a mixed bag that I'd agree with some other posters: I don't see the attraction for another airline in buying the company, warts and all, when it could just cherry-pick the routes or bases it wanted.

Incidentally here is flyBE's results presentation from 2 days ago which gives an overview of the financials.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 09:40
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People don't want to pay a bloody fortune to fly these days not only because of APD but because of the state of the average persons pockets and the fact that you can now fly to the US with Norwegian for the price of a return flight to Scotland with Flybe. There has to be a sort of cleansing and adjustment to reality. If Flybe cannot make their monopoly work - who the H*LL can?

easyJet could apply for the LHR domestic slots to operate ABZ and EDI if that happens and I think they would be a far better operator than Flybe with their ridiculous Q400's on such a route!

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Old 16th Nov 2018, 11:13
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with their ridiculous Q400's on such a route!
What's so ridiculous? - these are exactly the type of sector lengths the Q400 was optimised for. Probably only 10-15 mins longer sector time than a jet and much more economical. Some routes that BEE use the Dash on do push the envelope a bit, but not this one (or any other UK domestic sector).
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 11:19
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Originally Posted by Wycombe
What's so ridiculous? - these are exactly the type of sector lengths the Q400 was optimised for. Probably only 10-15 mins longer sector time than a jet and much more economical. Some routes that BEE use the Dash on do push the envelope a bit more, but not this one (or any other UK domestic sector).
Yes, those sector lengths are in the Q400 sweet spot - I agree with you there. However in fairness, in the specific case of LHR-EDI/ABZ, one could argue that a 78-seater is not the optimal use of scarce Heathrow slots (although I wouldn't go as far as "ridiculous")...
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 11:57
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Originally Posted by Cyrano
Yes, those sector lengths are in the Q400 sweet spot - I agree with you there. However in fairness, in the specific case of LHR-EDI/ABZ, one could argue that a 78-seater is not the optimal use of scarce Heathrow slots (although I wouldn't go as far as "ridiculous")...
Slot wise i agree the routes may not be the most optimal use of them... As it stands, the aircraft is indeed the perfect fit for these routes however and from an outsiders view, they seem to be performing pretty well...

You have to blame the EU "commission" for why the slots can't be used for somewhere else, but that's a whole different story.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 12:07
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Given the expense of operating into LHR, operating your smallest type of aircraft into the airport is going to put you at a serious disadvantage in terms of cost per seat when compared with competitors. External analysis on linkedin shoes that the BE flights LHR-ABZ/EDI are poor and generating negative 5% margin consistently based on air-fare analysis.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 13:33
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LHR-ABZ/EDI are poor and generating negative 5% margin consistently based on air-fare analysis
That's probably more to do with how many pax are actually paying for their seats on these flights. I've seen many comments that they are quite heavily used by positioning crew.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 13:56
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Looking at the stats it begs the question where will the small airports such as Norwich get their traffic if Flybe go under.

Cardiff is clearly not profitable.


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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:16
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Ncl is top .... wow we aren't base but likely to be the most profit for routes

seems strange to believe that they didn't try other routes from the north east airport
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:22
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I have already stated on the Norwich post that they won't apart from oil related (helis and Eastern) and the TUI flights they currently have. It is very difficult to make money flying even BHX-GLA etc.

There are/have been many airports that have no hope of sensible levels of traffic. DTV,NWI,DSA ( while LBA exist anyway), EXT, CWL ( while Bristol exists) HUY etc. They can only survive by diversification ( maintenance, aircraft parking etc. or local or government subsidy ( which PIK does along with many others e.g. INV, SYY). Especially with BREXIT and rising fuel costs.

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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:26
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Mike - the Norwich agenda sounds very reminiscent of JaySata. Given that Flybe is a very small part of Norwich and doesn't even feature on the graph you've posted (because it's so small) then I think it's fairer to consider the implications where major bases like SOU, CWL etc are concerned rather than the obsessive focus on NWI?!
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:32
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As has been previosuly posted, this base profitabilty analysis is skewed by AF/KL code shares.

seems strange to believe that they didn't try other routes from the north east airport
Haven't they tried over the years?
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:37
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Southend is a bit of a shocker.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:42
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Flightrider

I no longer hide behind a nom de plume as Tracey Curtis Taylor outed me in the long running saga elsewhere.

I agree that CWL is a major base and have some pretty strong connections with Rhoose as I soloed there back in 1981 and was one of the founders of the Cardiff Wales Flying Club.

I also spent many happy hours using Norwich both as a pilot and passenger before the disastrous sale by the local authorities to private investors who have turned it in to little more than a shed with a runway.

In the case of the latter their attitude and so called ‘airport development fee’ has not helped airlines such as Flybe gain regular passengers.

I see the same commercial suicide on UK city streets where a combination of business rates and anti car philosophies has led to a disaster for retailers.
22/04 There are/have been many airports that have no hope of sensible levels of traffic. DTV,NOR,DSA ( while LBA exist anyway), EXT, CWL ( while Bristol exists) HUY etc. They can only survive by diversification ( maintenance, aircraft parking etc. or local or government subsidy ( which PIK does along with many others e.g. INV, SYY). Especially with BREXIT and rising fuel costs.
Agreed.








Last edited by Mike Flynn; 16th Nov 2018 at 14:58.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:46
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Originally Posted by Sharklet_321
People don't want to pay a bloody fortune to fly these days not only because of APD but because of the state of the average persons pockets and the fact that you can now fly to the US with Norwegian for the price of a return flight to Scotland with Flybe.
You can for the moment but Norwegian are loss making, don’t let the Q2 results with their reappraisal of shares in banks and moves in forward currency transactions fool you, net yields are less than net costs. They’re bleeding cash. Sooner or later they’re going to have to start making real profits and that will not be by selling seats below cost as they’re doing right now.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:48
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Originally Posted by Pain in the R's
Southend is a bit of a shocker.
I wouldn’t say it was a shocker, ticket prices would be lower as competition is higher.
SEN is trying to attract PAX from LCY, STN, LGW, LHR.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:02
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SEN has eight trains an hour to London.45 minutes to Stratford.
Cardiff and Norwich are in the stone age by comparison with taxis and public transport being poor.

Flybe should have stuck to the profitable routes and dumped the rest.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:16
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Heavens Mike - Norwich is barely relevant to the Flybe thread and yet here we are again. Give us a break, will you?
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:31
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Originally Posted by daz211


I wouldn’t say it was a shocker, ticket prices would be lower as competition is higher.
SEN is trying to attract PAX from LCY, STN, LGW, LHR.
A key reason for the low yields is that Stobart were underwriting some fundamentally unsustainable operations, in order to put SEN on the map (which they are entitled to do, but this is where the result is visible!)
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:37
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Let’s be honest here.

The purpose of the STK/BE tie up was to open up SEN and prove it was viable and that people would use it

they proved that routes were viable and that people wanted to use SEN, the franchise served its purpose and STk can take a loss from it because they have now attracted FR to operate along side U2, all of which will pay STK for the use of SEN and ground handling and fuel etc

job done. I don’t think STK are stupid with the way this has played out

cs
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