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Old 1st Nov 2018, 00:36
  #701 (permalink)  
 
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There are no reports of FlyBE being unable to pay bills at the moment.
No, but this doesn't make for great reading. Every large company now has to report publicly on this. With 73% of invoices not paid within terms, it's one of the worst performances of any UK airline I could see. I haven't checked off every single one, but I could only see one worse report and that was one of their franchise partners... In fairness to Flybe, the TCX report doesn't look marvellous either.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 11:23
  #702 (permalink)  
 
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How is, by the way, the handling of third party monies by Flybe as a franchisor organized? Are monies paid by passengers on Flybe's website for Eastern / Blue Islands / Stobart flights kept in separate trust accounts, are they immediately transfered to the franchisee (minus a franchise fee) or do they get mixed up with Flybe's own monies and everything gets sorted out only after a while? This appears to be an important aspect for a franchisee if the the franchisor is going through a rough patch of sea.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 11:52
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Little ray of sunshine for them maybe, the share price has appreciated about 6% this morning and the shares trading just under 11p..Every little helps, as they say. May be some good news in the offing?
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 12:23
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Originally Posted by bodminsteve



Sadly good management is very short supply in Flybe , I’ve no confidence whatsoever the grown ups are capable of extricating us from this dreadful mess of their making


Yet another airline staffed by fantastic people let down by dreadful managment , This crisis hasn’t just happened it’s been fermenting for a long time .
This is the airline that thought it could start flights to the Orkney Island, the Shetland and Hebrides in the winter, as well as flooding the niche Glasgow Manchester market against them. It surely was not a business decision but a fit of pique at Loganair daring to go on their own.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 13:25
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An industry analysis firm has posted an interesting item on LinkedIn showing the estimated profit/loss per passenger at each flyBE base.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 13:54
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Is there a link to it?
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 14:14
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Sorry, I was being too subtle in my linking!
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 14:38
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Interesting.

Does anyone know the extent of what service their GLA based aircraft operate?
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 15:51
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An article in "The Irish News" that reported on the end of the BHD-LPL route a week ago mentioned this...
It comes amid fears that the carrier...is set to scale back on its regional hubs, cutting the number from 11 to possibly seven.
...adding that BHD would not be one of those four The reamining ten are:
  • Aberdeen
  • Birmingham
  • Cardiff
  • Doncaster
  • Dusseldorf
  • Edinburgh
  • Exeter
  • Glasgow
  • Manchester
  • Southampton
So not all of the 20 "bases" mentioned in the LinkedIn article are true bases and would be under consideration of closure - and not all 11 true bases are listed in the LinkedIn article (DSA is not). Bases with "poor" or "marginal" performance according to that article are BHX, GLA, EXT, EDI and BHD - none of which I could imagine to be closed. I suppose those under review will be DUS, CWL, DSA and one of the Scottish bases.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 16:07
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Are CWL and DSA not subsidised?
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 16:19
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Originally Posted by mwm991
Are CWL and DSA not subsidised?
Yes, and the subsidy amounts won't show up in any average-fare analysis...
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 16:22
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Not having a base at an airport does not necessarily amount to no longer serving the airport.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 16:47
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Originally Posted by virginblue
An article in "The Irish News" that reported on the end of the BHD-LPL route a week ago mentioned this......adding that BHD would not be one of those four The reamining ten are:
  • Aberdeen
  • Birmingham
  • Cardiff
  • Doncaster
  • Dusseldorf
  • Edinburgh
  • Exeter
  • Glasgow
  • Manchester
  • Southampton
So not all of the 20 "bases" mentioned in the LinkedIn article are true bases and would be under consideration of closure - and not all 11 true bases are listed in the LinkedIn article (DSA is not). Bases with "poor" or "marginal" performance according to that article are BHX, GLA, EXT, EDI and BHD - none of which I could imagine to be closed. I suppose those under review will be DUS, CWL, DSA and one of the Scottish bases.
So they would take the subsidy at CWL for three years and then not see out the rest of the agreement? Really? Do you think Welsh Government will see that as a good use of their money?
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 17:12
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Remember the LinkedIn article is their estimate, it in no way determines outright facts.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 17:23
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I would treat the LinkedIn thing with real caution. It looks skewed by the Air France deal as ABZ and NCL are points where BE buys seats on AF and both are astronomically high. At places where AF buys seats from BE like BHX and MAN the numbers seem low. I guess the figures also include franchise routes so NCL and ABZ will be high as Eastern make up quite a big portion of Flybe brand activity at both.

As the figures are for the last 12 months then they will also include stopped routes like the Highlands and Islands stuff during the tussle with Loganair.

Definitely treat with caution, I’d say. It is interesting but I wouldn’t base any thoughts on it.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 17:34
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So they would take the subsidy at CWL for three years and then not see out the rest of the agreement? Really? Do you think Welsh Government will see that as a good use of their money?
Well, if there is consideration that 4 out of 11 bases could go, you have to name four. I am open to suggestions other than those I have mentioned, but do you really think Flybe would close Exeter, Birmingham and Southampton and keep Doncaster, Cardiff and Dusseldorf? DSA and CWL will most likely disappear anyway when the current deal expires and Flybe can dispose of the Embraer 195.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 17:55
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Well the deal at CWL is for ten years which will be for a long time after the 195s are gone and I think you will find that if Flybe tries to leave early there will be penalties.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 18:17
  #718 (permalink)  
 
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A company at the end of its tether will not be scared by some penalty clauses in a contract. If a company needs to restructure, almost any contract it will have to touch has some sort of penalty clause in it or carries the risk of a liability for damages because of a breach of contract - be it leases, employment contracts or a contract with an airport. So what? Do you think CWL or DSA will sue Flybe with the obvious result that there still will not be flights afterwards and a then insolvent Flybe is unable to pay? By entering into a 10-year-contract, those airports took a gamble and they knew it.

But let's assume just for the sake of this discussion that Flybe is indeed forced to keep CWL and DSA, which four bases would you identify that are under threat of closure as per The Irish News? Without DSA and CWL (and apparently BHD), make your pick of four from these eight: EXT, SOU, MAN, BHX, EDI, GLA, ABZ and DUS.
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 18:35
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I would have to say DUS ABZ SOU and EXT i can’t see them closing BHX or MAN as they would have to find a place to fly over 20+ aircraft
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Old 1st Nov 2018, 18:44
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There is no way on God's earth that Saad would've got into a deal with CWL or DSA that Flybe couldn't get out of very easily. I think it'll be alot easier than you think for Flybe to pull the plug.
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