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Flybe-9

Old 25th Nov 2018, 09:58
  #1141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset View Post
I don't really get you lot on here, no airline will ever fit them if you listen to yourselves. Clearly if there's interest then the said airlines must know what they're doing, you lot sound like you'll make the perfect airline CEO by the way you're carrying on.
​​​​​​With regards to IAG, what's so difficult to comprehend about it? The only thing missing from their armoury is a regional airline. Remember it's IAG we're talking about, not BA, IAG as a group may well want a regional airline and why not? They have the finances and power to do what is necessary to turn Flybe into a profitable airline. They could of course start by grounding the Embraer 195s, IAG will have the money to do this and it will instantly put Flybe back in the black. Flybe have a strong business, it just needs the correct guidance and restructuring.
Agreed. In terms of the 195s, there are primarily 3 based at SEN which have repeated tech issues, bin them off, replace with more reliable airframes. Perhaps switch in that new Aer Lingus (IAG) Avro config operated by Cityjet.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 10:50
  #1142 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by bycrewlgw View Post


just cant see where it would fit in with VS. Theyíve tried and failed with several short haul airlines over the years. The only way they could make it work would be to feed into MAN / LHR / LGW or into KL / AF / DL through AMS and CDG. Canít see them being interested in point to point from CWL / DSA / EXT for example.

Same goes for IAG.
Turn MAN into an alternative hub for the US. Strenghten KLM and Air France on AMS and CDG to the UK. It's own feed into Heathrow. A for say CWL that could be run as a separate focus city same with BHX.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 10:54
  #1143 (permalink)  
 
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Whoever buys BE only one thing is certain, the route map will look considerably different to what it is currently. How those changes manifest themselves who knows and is no doubt at the core of any sale.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 11:44
  #1144 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mik3bravo View Post
Agreed. In terms of the 195s, there are primarily 3 based at SEN which have repeated tech issues, bin them off, replace with more reliable airframes. Perhaps switch in that new Aer Lingus (IAG) Avro config operated by Cityjet.
Except they are working for Stobart and at least 1 is owned by Stobart with 2 more to go to them. The ones that are left will be phased out by the end of next year. So won't be a problem. The jet fleet then will be 15 E175 assuming Flybe don't bin the 4 that are due for delivery. Yes the E195 are a weight on the shoulders but it is one that is lessening and will be gone.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 14:28
  #1145 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect that within the wider groups both IAG and Virgin (if it is able to draw on the resources of its shareholders Delta, Air France / KLM) have the gravitas to pull a takeover off and put Flybe back on the right path. However, I can't see IAG getting it without the Competition and Markets Authority - maybe even the EU - looking into the LHR slots situation yet again. And that wouldn't be good for finding another airline LHR-ABZ, EDI and maybe even NQY.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 14:38
  #1146 (permalink)  
 
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I really hope they don't get Flybe. Might as well shut them down now if IAG get hold of them.
BMI was a mess, IAG bought them out and many staff went on to find work at BA.There was no place for BMI Baby or BMI Regional.
So do you want part of somerthing or all of nothing, the latter is just virtue signalling and is not helpful. Virgin, as ever are after raising brand awareness, I don't imagine that Delta seriously want to but a loss making turboprop regional....
It's not only bad management, it's also that frankly. most of the time, the train makes more sense in the UK on the likes of GLA/EDI-MAN/BHX which once upon a time were core BA routes. That world has gone, and the regional to EU is now swamped by the big boys in FR, EZY, LS, VY etc etc. Flybe are less and less relevant, and if you guys think that building a hub to serve Virgin's leisure routes out of MAN could be profitable, I am not sure I agree that's likely.
Turn MAN into an alternative hub for the US
By "alternative" you mean "loss making." MAN has seen great success in point-to-point of late, Thomas Cook beating VS at their own game, offering better value to family holidays, whereas year round US connectivity has gone into reverse. In recent years, AA have dropped CLT,JFK, ORD, UA have down-gauged EWR and Delta palmed everything off to VS, as they see MAN as better fitting that market positioning. None of that suggests that adding the cost and complexity of a hub and spoke system is the way forward, quite the reverse IMHO, especially if Norwegian ever get off their backsides and join the party,
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:04
  #1147 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot View Post
BMI was a mess, IAG bought them out and many staff went on to find work at BA.There was no place for BMI Baby or BMI Regional.
So do you want part of somerthing or all of nothing, the latter is just virtue signalling and is not helpful. Virgin, as ever are after raising brand awareness, I don't imagine that Delta seriously want to but a loss making turboprop regional....
It's not only bad management, it's also that frankly. most of the time, the train makes more sense in the UK on the likes of GLA/EDI-MAN/BHX which once upon a time were core BA routes. That world has gone, and the regional to EU is now swamped by the big boys in FR, EZY, LS, VY etc etc. Flybe are less and less relevant, and if you guys think that building a hub to serve Virgin's leisure routes out of MAN could be profitable, I am not sure I agree that's likely.

By "alternative" you mean "loss making." MAN has seen great success in point-to-point of late, Thomas Cook beating VS at their own game, offering better value to family holidays, whereas year round US connectivity has gone into reverse. In recent years, AA have dropped CLT,JFK, ORD, UA have down-gauged EWR and Delta palmed everything off to VS, as they see MAN as better fitting that market positioning. None of that suggests that adding the cost and complexity of a hub and spoke system is the way forward, quite the reverse IMHO, especially if Norwegian ever get off their backsides and join the party,
I want Flybe to survive as the UKs regional airline because they provide people like me with connections to Europe and the UK on my doorstep. I can fly from my country Wales to a host of destinations i couldn't before and that puts money into my countries economy and helps in it's awareness around Europe. All IAG want is for me too travel to London and fill up BA aircraft.
Guess as actual paying Flybe customer i don't count. Let's all fly from London !
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:21
  #1148 (permalink)  
 
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Sadly. as has been proved over the last 20 years, most of your compatriots prefer to hop over the Severn Bridge and use BRS. Whatever the outcome of this negotiation, the future of feeder routes from CWL and others is looking pretty bleak. IMHO.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:25
  #1149 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by macdo View Post
Sadly. as has been proved over the last 20 years, most of your compatriots prefer to hop over the Severn Bridge and use BRS. Whatever the outcome of this negotiation, the future of feeder routes from CWL and others is looking pretty bleak. IMHO.
Yes but more and more are choosing to fly from their own country and Flybe is a crucial part of that. Lose them will be a big blow for Wales.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:41
  #1150 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset View Post
Well it's not the same question is it, I want a bar of chocolate because I fancy one, I need to eat food to survive.
With Flybe being so cheap to buy and the legacy issues that's keeping them in the red easyish to sort out for anyone with cash then considering they have a strong business (high revenue) then it should be a good purchase for almost anyone. Now you could argue that the purchaser might not be good for Flybe as we know it, but fundamentally if strong leadership prevails with strong restructuring then there's no reason why it wouldn't be a good acquisition. As for why now, well it's cheap enough isn't it? There will never be a better opportunity. Why Flybe? Why not? One of my friends is a BA skipper and he took Willie Walsh back to Spain 18 months ago. He visited the flightdeck for a chat and effectively said the only thing missing for IAG now is a regional airline acquisition so they've clearly been thinking about it for quite a while.
People are confusing shares issued by stock market price with price to buy.

If I own 15% of Flybe and Stock market says it is worth £30 million then you may come and say I will give you £4.5 million and we all be happy but reality is different. I paid £40 million and want it back or the majority of it and I don't have to sell. This is the important bit, if anybody have 90% of the shares then can legally force everybody else to sell at offer price. If you don't then you need to persuade everybody.

This is why in a takeover winning 50.01% is important because you have won control of the company. However if other shareholders refuse to sell then it can become difficult because the law rightly protects Minority interests in a company. Getting 90% means own it outright and force others to seel but certain things within rules require 75% approval etc so it ll just becomes compliated and lawyers make lots of money.

There are lots of rules such that a company may buy 29.9% of shares at which point it must make a takeover attempt, if it owns 20% and allied with someone else so they are regarded as own and the same with 10% then same rule applies. Lots of these rules seem petty but if you owned 10,000 shares in Flybe you have to be treated in exactly same way as Investor who owns 15,000,000.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:53
  #1151 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset View Post
Complimenting is largely irrelevant. How does alot of IAGs airlines compliment the other? It doesn't matter and is just semantics. If IAG can turn Flybe into profit then there's the answer; profit, it's as simple as that. You lot do over complicate things sometimes.
It doesn't have to be profitable, good if it is BUT if it delivers profitability to IAG and prevents a customer going elsewhere then even better.

Example would be a Cruise ship leaving from Southampton, taxi service supplied by Cruise company costs £30 a head to someone from London. No chance is Taxi service profitable but the 2 people will spend £20,000 on cruise and onboard plus other competing cruise company at Dover offers 1st class train free. Who cares if Taxi service loses money because it is such a small part of operation. Course if they offered £30 taxi fares from London to Southampton then taxi company would go bust very soon.............. taxi company is Flybe because it has an aircraft to fill rather than a 5 seater car.

IAG has various brands which theoretically should offset one another so when one is up another is down. Swiss had that idea and then 9/11 happened.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:57
  #1152 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
Yes but more and more are choosing to fly from their own country and Flybe is a crucial part of that. Lose them will be a big blow for Wales.
IF it is profitable then another company will step in, either as a startup or from within the industry. If it is not profitable to run then it is better off not been run because it damages the rest of the industry.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 15:59
  #1153 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Alteagod View Post
Whoever buys BE only one thing is certain, the route map will look considerably different to what it is currently. How those changes manifest themselves who knows and is no doubt at the core of any sale.
If money can be made then service will be run, if not then taxpayers shouldn't be asked to subsidise something which doesn't work.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 16:19
  #1154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
IF it is profitable then another company will step in, either as a startup or from within the industry. If it is not profitable to run then it is better off not been run because it damages the rest of the industry.
Except there isn't really the airlines with either the aircraft or the will nor the profile to run routes from airports like CWL EXT and SOU whether they are profitable or not. Imo they'll be lost never to be replaced.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 16:34
  #1155 (permalink)  
 
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If IAG are genuinely involved - and they are likely to need to say something sooner than later - then it will only be to drive up any price Virgin would have to pay. There is nothing here for IAG beyond competition issues galore at LHR and LCY.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 16:49
  #1156 (permalink)  
 
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Sadly I doubt IAG will have the slightest interest in Flybe. They would be returning to a market where they saw massive losses as BA Regional. I also Doubt if Virgin will be interested, their entry into the short haul business was a financial disaster and relatively short lived. As the larger markets are well served by carriers with lower seat costs, there is no future here for a carrier operating expensive turboprops. So the future is likely to be in Niche markets and by definition there are not too many of these that will support mid size turbo props. I do hope Flybe survives but I fear it will shrink to do this. Good Luck.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 16:53
  #1157 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flightrider View Post
If IAG are genuinely involved - and they are likely to need to say something sooner than later - then it will only be to drive up any price Virgin would have to pay. There is nothing here for IAG beyond competition issues galore at LHR and LCY.
What value do you see in it for Virgin?

Whatever happens, the other UK regional carriers can pick up other profitable routes.
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 16:56
  #1158 (permalink)  
 
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I very much doubt that IAG would be interested in saying something just to raise the price Virgin would have to pay or create a bidding war - it usually means a binding statement to be credible enough to raise a share price and is a dangerous game to play that rarely ends well.

On the other hand I could quite easily see IAG saying something publicly if they could get a good look at the confidential side of Flybe's books and gain good knowledge of non public info, without having to make a full bid
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 17:13
  #1159 (permalink)  
 
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Current share price is 16p
With interest from Vigin, IAG, And possibly Stobart let alone EZY, i wonder if share price will head north?
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Old 25th Nov 2018, 19:51
  #1160 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
Yes but more and more are choosing to fly from their own country and Flybe is a crucial part of that. Lose them will be a big blow for Wales.
Fair point. Itís also backed to the hilt with taxpayers money, like NQY, and yet still flybe struggle. CWLís problem is more easyJet at BRS than BA at the other end of the GWR.
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