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Flybe-9

Old 21st Oct 2020, 09:53
  #4421 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Chichester
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Same applies to all airlines. The industry isn't needed.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 10:08
  #4422 (permalink)  
 
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I take exception to the view expressed by jmccrew and others that a reborn Flybe would be “good news”. Not such good news if you work for Loganair, Blue Islands, etc. As the industry starts to recover either due to a vaccine, improved testing or whatever, the absolute last thing it needs is a revamped Flybe instigating market share wars on routes such as SOU GLA/EDI causing grief all round before probably exiting the market again. This corpse should stay buried, not exhumed.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 10:29
  #4423 (permalink)  
 
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God_of_Fire

It was Jersey European until 2001, then British European, thrn Flybe from 2003. It was profitable for more years then less. Then Jim French did the disastrous deal with Embraer. Saad Hammad wss brought im to sort the mess out, and did a good job, thrn Laffin and the non exec directors sacked him, and his replacement Christine Oumieres-Widener did a pretty good wrecking job on the company
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 10:53
  #4424 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 14
The reality is (IF) Flybe 2.0 comes to life then its going to be a very very small, concentrated operation, most likely only with a handful of aircraft operating from a couple of bases linking the regions. A MAN or BHX base would be sensible as the aircraft could then link North, South, Ireland and Scotland. Yes they would be competing against (potentially) larger and hungrier companies like Loganair, Easyjet and even maybe IAG (in some form). If they are sensible they would work with the other operators, code sharing with who ever will have them, Blue Islands and Loganair have already got their code share arranged and working, Eastern and Aurigny are also putting one together.

Theres plenty of aircraft ready with possibly lower lease costs, will they go for the Dash over the ATR, who knows, after all its a clean sheet, the ATR is the accountants Friend and NAC et al will no doubt have many airframe ready and waiting. The biggest cost change will be the crewing aspect, no unions, a small crew compliment working on (no doubt) significantly lower wages, most likely more in line with the likes of Eastern, Loganair and Blue Islands.

Flybe 2.0 could be fantastic, maybe like the other operators who stepped in, they will provide a more local brand, a more local feel operating some more niche routes, hopefully Flybe 2.0 won't look to compete with LM, T3, BI but work with them, it would be interesting to see whether they choose Team Loganair / Blue Islands or go to the other side with Eastern / Aurigny. One thing is for certain though, Flybe 2.0 won't be the same and they certainly won't be picking up where they left off! The world has changed.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 10:55
  #4425 (permalink)  
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
 
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Originally Posted by airsouthwest View Post
even Simon Calder has said so.
Ha ha ha ha. If you are relying on Simon Calder’s advice you are in trouble.

A key part of planning a business is market research. There is almost no market to research at the minute. Established, well financed airlines are in survival mode. Fares are on the deck. All across the U.K. airports and handling agents have cut services back. A new airline will have to negotiate with these entities which are also in low risk / survival mode to get them to hire more staff to service potential passengers which may or may not materialise. These companies will not negotiate on the cheap when they are already bleeding money.

There is much more to launching an airline than painting aircraft and hiring pilots and cabin crew. Anyone planning to launch an airline without waiting to see what the landscape looks like in 18 months is playing an outrageously high risk game with investors’ money.


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Old 21st Oct 2020, 11:05
  #4426 (permalink)  
 
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So long as those investors can see the same bright opportunity as you can, and are happy to pay you a nice fee to do all this research and negotiating, jobs a good 'un
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 11:07
  #4427 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: United Kingdom
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Flybe didnt fail due to one reason, it failed due to many. Maybe Flybe 2.0 if taken as a clean sheet will succeed, if the incoming management have learnt from history it could be successful. Costs will be lower and if they're not, they're doing it wrong! Crew costs can be significantly reduced, no doubt in line with Eastern / Loganair / Blue Islands, they will certainly in the short term not have the union aspect to deal with, allowing easier management of crew and costs.

Most other costs also reduced, including fuel, (the dash 8 gets even cheaper to operate). If going down the clean sheet route they also have the chance to pick the best aircraft for the operation, do they need Dash 8's or can the ATR work? Do they need 70+ seats or can a mix of ATR42/72 work? NAC et al will have many aircraft available and as the new operation is planned to be small, they'll only need a handful of aircraft initially. Plenty of second / third / fourth hand turboprops sitting around waiting to fly!

The only thing for sure is that Flybe 2.0 won't be picking up where it left off, its a new world and a world that now has stronger competition who are teaming up to make things work. Loganair + Blue Islands V Aurigny + Eastern seem to be the set up from the latest news on Codeshares and partnerships. Who will Flybe pick to get into bed with? The power house from Scotland (with very stable and progressive management) combined with the Jersey Government backed Blue Islands or Guernsey's state owned regional airline (with more aircraft than it knows what to do with) combined with the East Coast local government vanity project knows to many as Eastern Airways. Interesting times to say the least!
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 13:51
  #4428 (permalink)  
 
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Aspire are quietly renewing LPCs on a lot of the Dash pilots so there are actually more than enough Ex Flybe crew to jump straight into the Q400s and fly them. Fingers crossed that it comes of and we see them back in the air soon.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 14:18
  #4429 (permalink)  
 
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One big saving and highly unusual aspect of this is Aspire Flight Training. A group of the airlines training Captains has been quietly revalidating the licences and SIM checks of many of the Q400 pilots. Getting former MPLs converted to ATPLs and other excellent work. Its virtually unheard of and shows the family spirit and positive attitudes of those Trainers and crew. I sincerely hope Flybe 2.0 contracts Aspire for Crew Training at least initially. So, one of the major initial costs of starting up is virtually absent.

I wish all my former colleagues the very best of luck getting back into the air!

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Old 21st Oct 2020, 14:21
  #4430 (permalink)  
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
 
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I really hope these investors have a new business model
up their sleeve because the flybe model did not work for the last 15 years of their existence. What would be a travesty would be another airline based on the same broken business model, adding unprofitable capacity to the market and thereby trashing the yields of the remaining regional carriers. I would be delighted to see a sustainable organisation emerge and re-employ those many who relied on regional aviation for their livelihoods - but it needs to be that: sustainable and not relying on cash infusions every 24 months from private investors.

Personally, if I had a hundred million burning a hole in my pocket that I absolutely needed to invest in a regional U.K. operator, I would be probably be looking for equity in one of the established regional carriers that actually have a record of balancing their books. At the very least I would be looking to poach some commercial talent from one of these organisations for my new venture.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 22:57
  #4431 (permalink)  
 
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“Personally, if I had a hundred million burning a hole in my pocket that I absolutely needed to invest in a regional U.K. operator, I would be probably be looking for equity in one of the established regional carriers that actually have a record of balancing their books. At the very least I would be looking to poach some commercial talent from one of these organisations for my new venture”


How to become a millionaire in the Airline industry?...Start as a Billionaire 😜
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Old 22nd Oct 2020, 17:40
  #4432 (permalink)  
 
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The business model is pretty straight forward. Without the fat, the pensions and the leasing cost of those Jets, Flybe would have made a profit every year for the last twenty. By starting a lot smaller, and containing costs, they have every chance. The Aircraft, is a 78 seater with very low direct operating costs. It can operate those intermediate loads an A3219 can't and a J41 can't. The ATR's available are old, second hand and slow. Q400 Crews are straining at the leash, and stamped up and current. it's a no brainer.

Also the costs are minimal UNTIL the right time. as an airline on paper, it is paying no leasing or employee costs right now. Nor will it until they start up. Others are hemorrhaging cash daily.

Best of luck to my former colleagues.

#Flybefamily.
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Old 22nd Oct 2020, 20:04
  #4433 (permalink)  
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Problems ran far deeper than lease costs. For years the company failed to match capacity to demand. A more disciplined approach to capacity and yield will be a decent start to a sustainable airline.

I was always baffled as to why they didn’t take a more aggressive approach to managing capacity (thereby driving down cost and driving up yield) on routes where they had no competition.
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 14:19
  #4434 (permalink)  
Snr
 
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In their defence the capacity-to-demand management was a losing battle since the $5 Billion deal to sign the Embraers. Saad did a brilliant job of transferring most of the order to Republic Airways, but still had to accept 24 Q400 in return. He was upfront that these aircraft were surplus to capacity, and running them at a loss was better than accepting the E-Jets.

The ideal fleet would've been 30-40 Q400 and no E-Jets....Cyrus has the ability to manage this.
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 14:53
  #4435 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Snr View Post
In their defence the capacity-to-demand management was a losing battle since the $5 Billion deal to sign the Embraers. Saad did a brilliant job of transferring most of the order to Republic Airways, but still had to accept 24 Q400 in return. He was upfront that these aircraft were surplus to capacity, and running them at a loss was better than accepting the E-Jets.

The ideal fleet would've been 30-40 Q400 and no E-Jets....Cyrus has the ability to manage this.
Can’t imagine any new startup will involve more than 10-15 airframes!
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 15:16
  #4436 (permalink)  
 
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Snr - where would these 30 - 40 dash 8s operate exactly?
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 15:27
  #4437 (permalink)  
 
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I wonder if they are expecting rivals not to survive the winter...
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 15:32
  #4438 (permalink)  
 
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Can’t imagine any new startup will involve more than 10-15 airframes!
And all the advantages being quoted for a re-booted Flybe would apply to any other new startup who wants to come into the market
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 16:07
  #4439 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SealinkBF View Post
I wonder if they are expecting rivals not to survive the winter...
Quite possibly and would feel slightly aggrieved if they re-entered the UK regional market at the expense of those current carriers. Having made a pigs ear of the old company, shed thousands of jobs and written off all debts and liabilities, they swallow up airline/s that have worked hard to stay afloat during the pandemic and re-take core routes. I appreciate this is a dog eat dog world but just wouldn’t sit right with me. Long way to go however!
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 16:37
  #4440 (permalink)  
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
 
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Originally Posted by Snr View Post
The ideal fleet would've been 30-40 Q400 and no E-Jets....Cyrus has the ability to manage this.
Bingo. I would even suggest that the ATR be a better aircraft due to the significantly lower fuel burn albeit Dashes might be easier to source and crew. I have no idea how Dash lease costs compare to ATR lease costs though.
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