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Old 13th May 2018, 09:29
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Originally Posted by Prophead
If you believe that HAL will borrow x amount to build this scheme and then not do everything they can to persuade people to use it and shop in the terminals then you really do not understand how this business is run.
LHR can do what they like to try and make the numbers work. The same applies to LGW if they got the go ahead.

What your one dimensional "analysis" ignores is the impact of the regulated asset base on the charging structure, which incentivises LHR into proposing gold plated solutions to basic problems.

Your retail based silver bullet is also no answer to the environmental or competition based impediments to the scheme.

It also does not account for financing the various surface access schemes, or the fact that LGW offers the best long term financial return for UKplc.
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Old 13th May 2018, 09:33
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Originally Posted by Prophead
BA know they will be able to give access to the whole of the UK onto their LH flights out of LHR. Whether this is via their own SH ops or with someone like Flybe, they will see more pax onto their LH routes and will likely bring flights back from Gatwick. The protest now as they don't want to be asked to contribute more towards the project. It is likely that once it is fully funded and given the go ahead they will be all for it.
This is pretty much the polar opposite of the evidence given by IAG, Virgin Atlantic and FlyBe in evidence to the select committee.
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Old 13th May 2018, 15:47
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So on the one hand we have an airport that people prefer to fly into that will be connected to Central London by a brand new Crossrail link, the west with a new rail connection and connected to the midlands and north by a 'just built' state of the art high speed rail link.

And then we have Gatwick with its recently voted, worst rail station in the UK.

Personally I think we should expand them both but only one will be a hub with easy road & rail access to large parts of the country.
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Old 13th May 2018, 16:41
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" easy road & rail access to large parts of the country "

You clearly don't drive along the M4 very often - it's solid from 07:00 to 10:00 and 15:00 - 1930 every working day - and often at weekends as well..................... and we're going to put MORE pax into it.... madness

EDIT

I see you live in Berkshire so you MUST know what the M4 is like.......................

Last edited by Heathrow Harry; 13th May 2018 at 17:37.
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Old 13th May 2018, 17:26
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Pardon my ignorance, but if Gatwick say they can produce another runway with zero-cost to the UK Taxpayers, why not just let them go ahead with it whether Heathrow expansion eventually happens or doesn't happen ?

It's not as though UK Taxpayers will be out of pocket if the Gatwick expansion turns out to be a white elephant.
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Old 13th May 2018, 18:45
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You clearly don't drive along the M4 very often
Yes, I know the M4 well. The western rail link will allow people to travel in from the west by train without having to switch and is much needed. The M4 does need widening but I suspect nothing will be done around Heathrow until a decision is made. When you are deciding between Heathrow or Gatwick however, for people coming from that direction it is irrelevant although better to just have to face the M4 to LHR rather than M25 also round to Gatwick.

However you look at it there are some very large and modern rail projects currently being built and we can either build up the airport that is connected to these or one miles away.
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Old 13th May 2018, 19:13
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Coming to a motorway near Heathrow, the M4 is to be re modelled as a smart motorway starting shortly, from outside Maidenhead to the two lane carriageway at the elevated section, ie four lanes of volume into two. The work will take 54 months which is quicker media speak than 4.5 years. Traffic will be diverted onto the A4 which will also be moved for construction of R3 at the same time as as the M25 alteration. Please bring extra fuel,food and boredom in the resulting traffic chaos.��
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Old 13th May 2018, 20:27
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54
Pardon my ignorance, but if Gatwick say they can produce another runway with zero-cost to the UK Taxpayers, why not just let them go ahead with it whether Heathrow expansion eventually happens or doesn't happen ?

It's not as though UK Taxpayers will be out of pocket if the Gatwick expansion turns out to be a white elephant.
Because the LGW business case is contingent on LHR not happening.

One of the dimensions of both schemes is how to prevent the UK taxpayer being lender of last resort if something nasty happens to the scheme costs. These schemes are so huge in relation to the capitalisation of the companies, who bears the ultimate risk if the SPV goes under?
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Old 13th May 2018, 20:37
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Dear Prop ploppy sorry typo

THE TAXPAYER is Lender of FIRST resort.

herewith is an example of ANOTHER botched Government scheme. I commend Crossrail to the audience.

"Please Sir can we have a £500,000,000m bail out, pretty please as we have run out of money.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4f685580-560a-11e8-a94b-41e5a20c31cf
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Old 13th May 2018, 20:39
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Originally Posted by anothertyke
Because the LGW business case is contingent on LHR not happening.
I think it's important to point out that both business cases are contingent on the other not happening (largely because the government said it would only give approval for one or the other).
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Old 13th May 2018, 22:53
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Originally Posted by Trinity 09L
Traffic will be diverted onto the A4
As far as I recall, they managed to convert the M3 into a smart motorway without needing to close it at any stage.
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Old 14th May 2018, 07:15
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
As far as I recall, they managed to convert the M3 into a smart motorway without needing to close it at any stage.
They were still closing stretches of it at night until earlier this year Dave - after 20:00, sometimes but generally after 22:00 - I think th elast peices wre the bits around Farnboro/ 'Bush - it's now pretty much finished after years of work. I don't think they ever closed the bit of the M4 near Bristol tho' - but that was very short
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Old 14th May 2018, 07:24
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Dear Prop ploppy sorry typo
obviously an intelligent comment coming here then.

Please Sir can we have a £500,000,000m bail out, pretty please as we have run out of money
£500m actually.

Considering the pitfalls of tunnelling under the capital and weaving around multiple running underground lines, that sum is quite small compared to the finish project which is a monumental achievement.
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Old 14th May 2018, 07:32
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People seem to be under the impression that expanding Gatwick will not cause any increase in traffic on the M25/M23. Also the rail station was recently crowned the worst in the UK. Do you really not believe there will be significant works required after this has been completed?

Just because it is not being included in the project itself as LHR has to be, doesn't mean the infrastructure around there won't need it in the future as the airport grows.

The transport works already planned or being built to LHR will be adequate for years.
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Old 14th May 2018, 07:41
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Dear Prop ploppy sorry typo
Grow up, you’re not 14, unless you are in which case, grow up.
The sad reality is that government is hopeless at controlling costs partly because they can’t make up their mind half the time and partly because the private sector is better at dealing. The NHS is full of such scandalous costs, however it remains the cost of doing business and no one is suggesting we close the NHS. The carriers are another example, we lack real leadership in this country alas.
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Old 14th May 2018, 15:25
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Originally Posted by anothertyke
Because the LGW business case is contingent on LHR not happening.

One of the dimensions of both schemes is how to prevent the UK taxpayer being lender of last resort if something nasty happens to the scheme costs. These schemes are so huge in relation to the capitalisation of the companies, who bears the ultimate risk if the SPV goes under?


OK....Didn't know that. Thanks for the clarification.

But on reflection, it's hardly a strong business case if you say ' We'll do X providing the Government prevent our competotors from doing the same thing '

So presumably the Nigerian is saying that he's only waiting for a definitive answer from the Government before investing himself ?

Heard that one before - many times...About number #4 on the list of ' How to make things difficult in Africa for your competitors '

Maybe the UK Governent should adopt a ' Show us the money, first ' policy - you know, just to be on the safe side....
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Old 14th May 2018, 15:29
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54
OK....Didn't know that. Thanks for the clarification.

But on reflection, it's hardly a strong business case if you say ' We'll do X providing the Government prevent our competotors from doing the same thing '.
LHR rely on precisely the same thing - we can do it proclvided there is no competition from LGW (so we can continue our monopolistic charging structure).
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Old 14th May 2018, 16:06
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Originally Posted by Dobbo_Dobbo


LHR rely on precisely the same thing - we can do it proclvided there is no competition from LGW (so we can continue our monopolistic charging structure).
Isn't that a contradiction ?

No expansion at Gatwick and Heathrow means that Heathrow can continue to charge, well, basically what they want, no ?

So why bother at all, as far as Heathrow is concerned ?

And why not start tomorrow, as far as Gatwick is concerned, providing they have the money, of course, and everything would be finished and in service while the myriad of pro and anti Heathrow expansion groups are still squabbling.

Excuse me for being confused.
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Old 14th May 2018, 16:51
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54
Isn't that a contradiction ?

No expansion at Gatwick and Heathrow means that Heathrow can continue to charge, well, basically what they want, no ?

So why bother at all, as far as Heathrow is concerned ?

And why not start tomorrow, as far as Gatwick is concerned, providing they have the money, of course, and everything would be finished and in service while the myriad of pro and anti Heathrow expansion groups are still squabbling.

Excuse me for being confused.
No need to apologise - it is a confusing debate, and is not helped by my typos!

I don't think it is a contradiction because both LHR and LGW understood that the airport's commission was to reccomend one new runway only (i.e. LHR or LGW - not both).

Therefore, it was right for each airport to put forward its business case on the basis that the other would not proceed for a significant (I think 20 year?) period.

Does that clarify the point?
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Old 14th May 2018, 17:48
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Originally Posted by Dobbo_Dobbo


No need to apologise - it is a confusing debate, and is not helped by my typos!

I don't think it is a contradiction because both LHR and LGW understood that the airport's commission was to reccomend one new runway only (i.e. LHR or LGW - not both).

Therefore, it was right for each airport to put forward its business case on the basis that the other would not proceed for a significant (I think 20 year?) period.

Does that clarify the point?

OK.....Thanks.
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