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Heathrow-2

Old 29th Apr 2020, 06:35
  #1221 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot View Post
Whatever made you think that? Genuinely? There speaks a man willing a business to fail for reasons beyond me. Any comeback into 2021 will see any airline that can get LHR slots going for it. The overall London market may fall, but in any competitive environment airlines will seek a competitive advantage, which will mean dropping STN and LGW for LHR if they can. That won’t change. LHR was declared full in 1977, perhaps 1976 levels of movements will be the new norm, perhaps not.


You don’t actually understand how shareholding works, do you? Dividends are expected in the running of a profitable business, otherwise no one would buy shares. No shares, no magic money tree for pension funds.....but yeah, nasty foreigners ripping us all off. How dare they?

It’s not Heathrow that concerns me, more so Gatwick long haul will take an enormous hit. Cathay won’t be back, Norwegian will be gone and BA will consolidate to LHR. I would bet China Airlines will either leave or finally get another LHR slot in the collapse in the next few years. Air China and China Eastern will also snatch any open slot at LHR to leave Gatwick. Heathrow will see profits fall but traffic will rebound very quickly, one suspects with a larger domestic network than in recent years as people stay home. But Gatwick is, IMHO, screwed.
if Gatwick gets openings they will be snapped up by Wizzair, easyJet and Ryanair, which will “screw” Luton
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 09:15
  #1222 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wycombe View Post
It wasn't going to anyway....privately funded I thought?
The banks will be charging increased rates for what will be a high-risk project from now on. If it ever gets off the ground, and if it does, it is unlikely construction will commence prior to 2030.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 09:44
  #1223 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Navpi View Post
I suspect like every other airport this will take years to recover. Single runway operation for years.
That is such an uneducated comment without any basis whatsoever.

Maybe they'll only open 9-5 as well
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 10:48
  #1224 (permalink)  
 
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TFL are looking for Govt funds £500m ? Rail companies will either give up franchises or request bail out,
£1bn plus for the new tunnel to Heathrow, HS2 will need more £, Crossrail unfinished. That's without the road infrastructure locally.
btw HAL with offshore investors, have furloughed staff so the company is being subsidised by UK govt now up to 80% per person
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 08:48
  #1225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
ah but that didn't include the cash to re-route the M25 and M-4 etc etc - that was going to be a Govt cost
if you say so...
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 12:29
  #1226 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LessThanSte View Post
if you say so...
More to the point, HAL said so.
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Old 1st May 2020, 08:43
  #1227 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
More to the point, HAL said so.
HAL never said anything about govt paying for that!
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Old 1st May 2020, 09:30
  #1228 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LessThanSte View Post
HAL never said anything about govt paying for that!
Wrong.

"Heathrow offers the fastest, most cost effective and most practical route to delivering new hub capacity. Costs are estimated at £15.6bn, all of which would be privately funded. Government support for surface access improvements would be required and is estimated at £1.2bn."

Heathrow Press Releases
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:31
  #1229 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Wrong.

"Heathrow offers the fastest, most cost effective and most practical route to delivering new hub capacity. Costs are estimated at £15.6bn, all of which would be privately funded. Government support for surface access improvements would be required and is estimated at £1.2bn."

Heathrow Press Releases
It doesnt specifically say the M25 or M4 though, does it. And there is a reason for that.
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Old 1st May 2020, 11:44
  #1230 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LessThanSte View Post
It doesnt specifically say the M25 or M4 though, does it. And there is a reason for that.
Doh.

What part of "New section of M25 to be tunnelled and upgraded alongside the existing section, increasing capacity and reducing congestion without disrupting road users" are you having trouble understanding ?
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Old 1st May 2020, 14:35
  #1231 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Doh.

What part of "New section of M25 to be tunnelled and upgraded alongside the existing section, increasing capacity and reducing congestion without disrupting road users" are you having trouble understanding ?
You cant do all that for £ 1.2 Bn.........................
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Old 1st May 2020, 15:31
  #1232 (permalink)  
 
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Surface access includes an awful lot of stuff. HAL get benefits from Crossrail, Western Rail Access to Heathrow, Southern Rail Access to Heathrow, etc. etc. HAL dont want to pay for those, but they undoubtedly help the surface access stats, and thats the kind of support they are looking for.

All the works associated with building the runway itself, including moving the M25, are fully funded by HAL. Im in a better position than most to state that. Also see https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans...0-01-10.1903.h

That said, given the recent Court of Appeal decision, that might move the goalposts significantly in the future.
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Old 1st May 2020, 19:25
  #1233 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
You cant do all that for £ 1.2 Bn.........................
I don't think we should be too surprised that HAL appears to have underestimated, probably by quite a lot, the cost of the M25 works. My point was that they weren't expecting to bear all the costs themselves, as evidenced by that Press Release I quoted from.

Nor does the statement quoted from the DfT rule out a government contribution, unless anyone is suggesting that the only M25 drivers who would benefit from the improvements are those bound to/from Heathrow, which clearly wouldn't be the case.

Anyway, it's all a bit academic now ...
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Old 1st May 2020, 20:28
  #1234 (permalink)  
 
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JHK was interviewed on BBC London news tonight. Usual questions about social distance, return to service etc and finally is R3 off your plans?
We will be ready to be the engine for the British economy, Q are you confident when could it be ready A I expect 10 years. Edited as a summary, unless someone can do the magic with download etc
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Old 1st May 2020, 20:48
  #1235 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Trinity 09L View Post
JHK was interviewed on BBC London news tonight. Usual questions about social distance, return to service etc and finally is R3 off your plans?
We will be ready to be the engine for the British economy, Q are you confident when could it be ready A I expect 10 years. Edited as a summary, unless someone can do the magic with download etc
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...-news-01052020 (will scroll off iPlayer soon)

JH-K starts at around 12:46 in.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 09:30
  #1236 (permalink)  
 
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I think you need to go to specsavers again Skip, you have an uncanny knack of spinning a reply to a question or observation that never formed part of the original comment. Wishing a business to fail is of course complete nonsense.IATA, ICAO , Eurocontrol are all forecasting massive reductions in passengers numbers flown , the severity will of course depend on how long the pandemic lasts, the economic impact, consumer confidence etc but assuming LHR suffers a 40% reduction we are looking at figures comparable with LGW who previously managed those number on a single runway. The business case for attracting on-costs based on the luxury of two runways would have to be robust for any business to bare.

You are right to point out that of course that this may of course sound the death knell for LGW, its more than possible to see a migration of all long haul to LHR
and not beyond the bounds of possibility to see the like of EZY move their whole operation assuming into LHR they can get landing fees comparable to their current agreement, I do concede that a substantial switch may of course sway figures back to there current level pre pandemic.My assumption was based on a pre pandemic scenario.

My single runway assertion was based on this being one hell of a slog !


Last edited by Navpi; 2nd May 2020 at 12:18.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 17:56
  #1237 (permalink)  
 
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I found the CAA consultation CAP1914 "Economic regulation of Heathrow: programme update" interesting as a step forward in formalising the situation.

"This document provides an update on our programme for the development of the economic regulation of Heathrow Airport Limited (“HAL”) in the light of the very significant uncertainties brought about by:

> the severe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the aviation sector as a whole and passenger numbers at Heathrow airport;
> the Court of Appeal’s decision setting aside the Airports National Policy Statement; and
> HAL’s subsequent decision to pause its programme for expanding Heathrow airport.

It outlines our proposals for changing our overall approach to developing the regulatory regime for HAL in the light of these developments."

There is a clear focus on a 2 runway Heathrow .


CAP1914: Economic regulation of Heathrow: programme update
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Old 2nd May 2020, 20:05
  #1238 (permalink)  
 
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Eight QR flights into LHR today. Two came directly from India, I assume repatriation, but six in from Doha including a freighter. Emirates had five 777s in too. Freight backlog or do the multiple daily frequencies (during normal times) from the Middle East make most of their money in the hold?

Positive news that in a time of zero passenger demand, they can still find an economic case (I assume) for so many flights per day.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 20:27
  #1239 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Vokes55 View Post
Eight QR flights into LHR today. Two came directly from India, I assume repatriation, but six in from Doha including a freighter. Emirates had five 777s in too. Freight backlog or do the multiple daily frequencies (during normal times) from the Middle East make most of their money in the hold?

Positive news that in a time of zero passenger demand, they can still find an economic case (I assume) for so many flights per day.
EK flights are seeing good passenger numbers on some regular services (200+) let alone what's in the hold.
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Old 5th May 2020, 12:45
  #1240 (permalink)  
 
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If people are flying "outbound" surely they can only be repatriation home?

One of the largest problems to unravelling this will surely be travel insurance ?

Even if we sort of social distancing will companies provide insurance to cover Covid ?

How for example will LHR, MAN etc revert to mass transit without that in place.


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