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Heathrow-2

Old 12th Apr 2018, 01:38
  #441 (permalink)  
 
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Heathrow should just go ahead and force the Governmentís hand by submitting a full application for the third runway and associated works to the Planning Inspectorate. That should be dealt with fairly and independently with a recommendation being submitted to the Secretary of State. Remaining issues of land etc neednít be sorted because you can submit an application on land you do not own.

Now, the SoS can go against the recommendation and there is no right to appeal. But if a refusal is unreasonable, ie because May, Johnson and a few other Tories *might* lose their seat, costs can be reclaimed. An awarding of costs along with the Inspectorateís recommendation to approve would make an ongoing blockage of expansion untenable.
No one will lose their seat on the issue of airport expansion, except Zac of course, because it is not a party political issue or one that would alter peoples' voting habits. This is the reason that the anti-Heathrow groups never stand candidates at elections (local or national).

Zac is the exception because he created an unneccessary byelection specifically on the issue of airport expansion and nothing else - and lost.
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Old 12th Apr 2018, 07:36
  #442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
No one will lose their seat on the issue of airport expansion, except Zac of course...

Zac is the exception because he created an unneccessary byelection specifically on the issue of airport expansion and nothing else - and lost.
1 - I'm pretty sure the Lib Dem candidate who won also campaigned against LHR expansion, so the issue of LHR expansion was off the table.

2 - labour and the greens either did not put forward a candidate or ran very low key campaigns. The reason for this was to avoid splitting the "anti-Tory" vote.

3 - the main issue in the campaign (as I recall it) was Goldsmith's allegedly islamaphobic campaign to be mayor of London which he ran against Sadiq Khan.

4 - although Goldsmith lost the by-election, he got his seat back a few months later in the general election.
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Old 12th Apr 2018, 16:31
  #443 (permalink)  
 
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Never understand why ALL the egates aren't available all the time......
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Old 12th Apr 2018, 16:40
  #444 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry View Post
Never understand why ALL the egates aren't available all the time......
Presumably because that would require more staff to oversee their operation and direct those with non-functioning passports to the manned desks.

Which reminds me, I was gobsmacked last month at LHR when the chip in my passport worked for the first time in the 8 years that I've had it ...
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Old 12th Apr 2018, 19:49
  #445 (permalink)  
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Agreed DRUK. Mine worked at T2 in March for the first time in two years! On each occaision that I went to the back up desk - they always said that they could read the chip and there was no problem. It failed to work at LTN, LGW (N+S), LHR (T2+3).
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Old 12th Apr 2018, 22:43
  #446 (permalink)  
 
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1 - I'm pretty sure the Lib Dem candidate who won also campaigned against LHR expansion, so the issue of LHR expansion was off the table.
Obviously the Libdem was against, Libdems are against any airport expansion anywhere, but that's not the point.

The point is that Zac made a stupid rash promise previously (to fight a by-election as an independent if the government went ahead with Heathrow expansion) and foolishly felt obliged to stick to it.

The by-election's entire raison d'etre was Heathrow expansion. If the issue had not arisen, there would have been no by-election.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 12:23
  #447 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PAXboy View Post
Agreed DRUK. Mine worked at T2 in March for the first time in two years! On each occaision that I went to the back up desk - they always said that they could read the chip and there was no problem. It failed to work at LTN, LGW (N+S), LHR (T2+3).
When mine failed to work at LGW for the first time in 2-3 years of weekly round trips the nice man confirmed there was nothing wrong with the chip. He found a few small blobs of grunge obscuring part of the text at the bottom of the ID page. The LGW e-gate scanners read the text as well, presumably to check that it matches the information on the chip. After cleaning the ID page the passport has worked every time since.

I keep the passport in a plastic wallet when it's not being inspected so I suspect it might have picked up the grunge inside one of the AMS e-gates before I got on the flight.

There are also some people who just don't seem to be able to work the gates, in terms of standing in the right place, keeping their head still, looking at the screen as instructed, and assisting the face recognition software by removing hats, glasses etc.
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Old 13th Apr 2018, 22:53
  #448 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
Obviously the Libdem was against, Libdems are against any airport expansion anywhere, but that's not the point.

The point is that Zac made a stupid rash promise previously (to fight a by-election as an independent if the government went ahead with Heathrow expansion) and foolishly felt obliged to stick to it.

The by-election's entire raison d'etre was Heathrow expansion. If the issue had not arisen, there would have been no by-election.
Apologies if I'm missing something, but I'm not really sure I understand this in the context of the original point.

You've said that Zac Goldsmith would be the only MP to loose his seat over this. He did for a short time, but I think the point is twofold:

1 - at a local level, anti-expansion will be pretty much par for the course.

2 - at the national level (i.e. in constituencies not local to LHR) there will be MPs who oppose expansion for other reasons.

There will of course be MPs who support expansion, but it feels finely balanced. I agree it's not so serious an issue that an MP should worry too much about loosing their seat over it, but is the government going to use its (currently very) finite political capital to drive through a project of questionable merit and deliverability when it has so many other competing priorities?

When you have key members of the cabinet and opposition as known ardent "antis", I'm not so sure it's a battle they will pick a fight over...
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 09:12
  #449 (permalink)  
 
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1 - at a local level, anti-expansion will be pretty much par for the course.
That’s a false assumption, Zac is Richmond MP, upper middle class white London types with few employment ties to LHR. Many of the other boroughs have a different view as the local economy depends on the airport. Same goes for Justine in Putney, much more white and posh and way less dependent on LHR jobs. I found LHR to be more of a noise issue for me in my E14 days than West London as they put the power on turning off base leg to finals. Clapham is another noise sensitive area but hardly local. Hounslow by contrast got used to it and relies on the airport.
It’s far from being a black and white issue.

Dobbo Dobbo as a Leeds resident, if no runway 3, LBA-LHR, poor as it is, will likely go. What’s your view on that from the perspective of the wider economy. You support connecting LBA via KLM or simply use MAN?
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Old 14th Apr 2018, 16:33
  #450 (permalink)  
 
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Hi Skippy - I'll try and take these questions in turn, hopefully the formatting works!

Originally Posted by Skipness One Echo View Post
That's a false assumption, Zac is Richmond MP, upper middle class white London types with few employment ties to LHR. Many of the other boroughs have a different view as the local economy depends on the airport. Same goes for Justine in Putney, much more white and posh and way less dependent on LHR jobs. I found LHR to be more of a noise issue for me in my E14 days than West London as they put the power on turning off base leg to finals. Clapham is another noise sensitive area but hardly local. Hounslow by contrast got used to it and relies on the airport.
Itís far from being a black and white issue.
I'm not sure I agree with this. If you reviewed (and I have no intention of doing so) the local constituencies I suspect you'd see a very strong correlation that both MP's and Opposition candidates stand as being "anti" LHR expansion.

By way of example only, I suspect John McDonnell, whose constituents are especially local to LHR, would say he represents people with close working class ties to LHR. Despite this, he is very much "anti" expansion.

I don't think it's a party political issue, or a socioeconomic issue. Loads of MPs from different backgrounds, geographies and representing different people are "pro" and "anti" LHR expansion for a pretty wide number of reasons.

Originally Posted by Skipness One Echo View Post
Dobbo Dobbo as a Leeds resident, if no runway 3, LBA-LHR, poor as it is, will likely go. Whatís your view on that from the perspective of the wider economy. You support connecting LBA via KLM or simply use MAN?
To take the penultimate point first, I don't see any intrinsic benefit to BA over LHR, as opposed to KLM via AMS, EI via DUB, AF via CDG or LH via FRA or MUC. The same can be said for EK via DXB for that matter...

In terms of LBA-LHR, one of the key points to emerge from the committee sessions was commercial reality. It's all very well LHR asserting that a certain number of regional routes could be served, but the airlines have made the (IMO obvious) point that unless a given route is commercially viable, it won't be served.

The current LBA route is largely a glorified slot sitter (as are some of the rotations to MAN). One of the daily LBA rotations has already been shelved and I think you are correct to say that the current one will likely go as well - sooner rather than later. However, if a third runway emerges (at great cost and with high charges) the glut of slots means the need to "slot sit" has vanished. This might make it as likely that the route goes in a third runway scenario as otherwise.

There is always BE, but they have been as vocal as any in explaining the problems they face with the current charges. Unless something new emerges (e.g. Subsidy) I think we can count them out.
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Old 21st Apr 2018, 10:36
  #451 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/05/independence-airports-commission-chair-prudential-howard-davies-properties-heathrow-report
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Old 21st Apr 2018, 16:20
  #452 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Navpi View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/05/independence-airports-commission-chair-prudential-howard-davies-properties-heathrow-report
Didn't you remark on that at the time? I can't remember whether you agreed or not with the views expressed in the article.
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Old 21st Apr 2018, 17:55
  #453 (permalink)  
 
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In terms of LBA-LHR, one of the key points to emerge from the committee sessions was commercial reality. It's all very well LHR asserting that a certain number of regional routes could be served, but the airlines have made the (IMO obvious) point that unless a given route is commercially viable, it won't be served.
Think the point made by LHR management is that with expansion, the supply-demand situation with slots changes and the secondary slot market disappears. With slots freely available the biggest obstacle to smaller operators on thinner routes is removed.

The recently announced discount on airport charges for domestic routes will help, that leaves the second main obstacle, double APD.

Obviously commercial viability is the determining factor and it would be up to pax on these routes to use them or lose them. That is why LHR management states that regional routes COULD be served, not WILL be served.



The current LBA route is largely a glorified slot sitter (as are some of the rotations to MAN). One of the daily LBA rotations has already been shelved and I think you are correct to say that the current one will likely go as well - sooner rather than later. However, if a third runway emerges (at great cost and with high charges) the glut of slots means the need to "slot sit" has vanished. This might make it as likely that the route goes in a third runway scenario as otherwise.
Not convinced that it is a slot sitter: why open a new route just to do slot-sitting, wouldn't it be better to increase frequencies on existing routes for this purpose? It would save the expense involved in opening and running a new station.

There is always BE, but they have been as vocal as any in explaining the problems they face with the current charges. Unless something new emerges (e.g. Subsidy) I think we can count them out.
Would imagine that BE is testing the market to ascertain if Heathrow operations are viable in the long term, and if so, get its foot in the door ahead of the competition.

It's a shame that EU rules oblige BE (and VS before it) to duplicate what already exists on two routes and leave some remedy slots unused. Without this nonsense there may have been the opportunity to try out some unserved routes.
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Old 22nd Apr 2018, 09:56
  #454 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
Obviously commercial viability is the determining factor and it would be up to pax on these routes to use them or lose them. That is why LHR management states that regional routes COULD be served, not WILL be served.
Hmmm.

What part of

With expansion, we will boost our domestic connections to 14 routes
have we misunderstood ?

Bringing Britain Closer - Heathrow's 9-Point Plan to Connect the UK
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Old 22nd Apr 2018, 10:48
  #455 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
Think the point made by LHR management is that with expansion, the supply-demand situation with slots changes and the secondary slot market disappears. With slots freely available the biggest obstacle to smaller operators on thinner routes is removed.

The recently announced discount on airport charges for domestic routes will help, that leaves the second main obstacle, double APD.

Obviously commercial viability is the determining factor and it would be up to pax on these routes to use them or lose them. That is why LHR management states that regional routes COULD be served, not WILL be served. .
First and foremost, the biggest obstacle to thinner routes (wherever those routes may be) is a commercially viable market.

The central message from the likes of BE is that there is no viable domestic market to LHR, in part because of competition from cheaper and/or better alternate options. For connecting passengers this is the European hubs, for O&D it is the other London area airport's or the railways.

Quite frankly, LHR is not (and under the presently proposed scheme will not be) set up for small regional routes. As you say, charges and slots are an issue, but whilst LHR remains (as proposed) more expensive than the likes of CDG, AMS, FRA, MUC, DUB then the likes of BE will continue to find it commercially more attractive to fly feeder services to alternative hubs.

The commercial reality is that the Government is now considering the use of PSO (Public Service Obligation) for regional links to LHR. This is a subsidy and, if it comes to pass, means the cost of connecting the regions to LHR is substantively borne by the UK taxpayer.

In other words, the regional connectivity argument is not going to carry much (if any) weight under the current scheme.

Dave Reid has addressed the point about LHR's misleading tactical approach to expansion.

Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
Not convinced that it is a slot sitter: why open a new route just to do slot-sitting, wouldn't it be better to increase frequencies on existing routes for this purpose? It would save the expense involved in opening and running a new station..
Well BA cut down the LBA service at around the same time as adding additional new long haul services. As I understand it, LBA was never a "new station" as no overnight stopper was based/accommodated (thus making it less effective for connecting traffic). I think this tells you all you need to know about how valuable BA view this route within its overall network.

Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
Would imagine that BE is testing the market to ascertain if Heathrow operations are viable in the long term, and if so, get its foot in the door ahead of the competition..
This may be true, I understand of the viability of the present operation relies on the ability to sell the slot pairs after a given period of operation. If the secondary slot market disappears, so does the commercial viability.
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Old 23rd Apr 2018, 22:43
  #456 (permalink)  
 
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The commercial reality is that the Government is now considering the use of PSO (Public Service Obligation) for regional links to LHR. This is a subsidy and, if it comes to pass, means the cost of connecting the regions to LHR is substantively borne by the UK taxpayer.
Fair point, but when LGW changed their charging policy a while back, they killed flybe’s routes to INV, GCI, JER, BHD and NQY overnight. EZY was the winner but business connectivity was lost as frequency was lost, NQY-LGW was reprieved only because HMG approved a sunsidy. Now that subsidy would generate a lot more inbound traffic if it was NQY-LHR instead, due to many more connections at Hounslow Intl.

Public and private sector are interconnected more than we admit. There would be no railway without subsidy yet we see the benefit in getting us from A to B.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 08:07
  #457 (permalink)  
 
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Dave yes I have referenced this before but The Guardian and indeed The Times keep regurgitating the story.

Having the chairman of a committee outed by the media for having a "possible" financial reward in respect of rw3 is spectacularly clumsy and undermines any impartiality in repect of Heathrow.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 08:12
  #458 (permalink)  
 
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With expansion, we will boost our domestic connections to 14 routes
have we misunderstood ?
How many routes do HAL operate? Making a promise they can't keep?
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 11:21
  #459 (permalink)  
 
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HAL make many promises, plans and financial commitments they cannot keep
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 12:26
  #460 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
How many routes do HAL operate? Making a promise they can't keep?
Why are these 14 domestic routes not up and running already? Donít believe anything that HAL state. They will never run the domestics, there is just no money to be made.
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