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Manchester-2

Old 10th Oct 2017, 09:58
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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Airlineroute‏ @Airlineroute 3m 3 minutes ago
Pakistan International has closed New York JFK bookings including flights from 14OCT17, however there is no confirmed cancellation date
Credit routesonline.

I lose track, but this affects Manchester's stopovers (?)
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Old 10th Oct 2017, 13:37
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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I'm under the impression that it will only affect two outbound JFK flights from Manchester as the inbound flights from JFK to Islamabad went non stop.

Islamabad to Manchester is currently 6 days a week an increase from the previous 5 flights a week.
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Old 10th Oct 2017, 13:38
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Islamabad also going back to daily soon too. It had been daily earlier this year but seemed to have dropped to 5 weekly somewhere over the course of the year.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 08:33
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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Quote:
Airlineroute‏ @Airlineroute 3m 3 minutes ago
Pakistan International has closed New York JFK bookings including flights from 14OCT17, however there is no confirmed cancellation date
Credit routesonline.

I lose track, but this affects Manchester's stopovers (?)
By all accounts, PIA schedulers are 'losing track' and the schedule keeps appearing beyond 14 Oct, now and again.....
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 12:24
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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http://mag-umbraco-media-live.s3.ama...mber-2017.xlsx

2.876 million for Sept. Up 7.4%

27.7 million for the year now.

Octobers stats will be interesting to say the least.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 14:21
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Considering growth has been around 6% or above all year I think October should still manage an increase overall but probally less than 2%.

Annually ZB carry bones of million pax or am I under estimating it?
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 14:31
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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Monarch had a declared seat capacity of just over 750,000 seats this winter according to ACL.

Now, we know not all of those seats will have been filled, but if we work on an average load factor of 85% (a realistic figure), then that's a loss of 637,500 passengers. Monarch had less of a seasonal variation than some other carriers at MAN, so x2 that's a loss of 1.2million pax.

Jet2 have added 300,000 seats next summer, TUI about 100,000 and Thomas Cook will probably be around 100,000 pax themselves. Easyjet will have at least one extra aircraft next summer, possibly 3 so we can say that's between 100,000-250,000 of extra pax.

Then add in all the other increases such as Cathay going daily, Oman Air still adding into the pax figure until May, Virgin adding 40,000 seats, Air Arabia Maroc, Powedair and such, that's potentially another 100,000. So, we are looking at 800,000 seats.

However, we also have the Loss of Norwegian sun routes, vueling ALC/TFS/FCO and no doubt other little losses over time, then that's probably about 100,000 lost.

Therefore, I fear MAN may start entering the negative territory, unless something is pulled out of the bag, to which I'm hearing rumours there may be something in the offing, but, no concrete rumours.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 14:56
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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Any ideas on the new Ezy routes?
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 14:58
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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I've been told some but as there is no concrete proof just yet, I'll leave it for a while.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 23:03
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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LAX LHR

'Oman still adding into the pax figure until May'

Are Oman leaving Manchester in May then?
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 01:36
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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No still going. But what I mean is Muscat will always be a gain in pax until May, as that's when they started last year. After May, there may be increases but not in larger numbers.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 01:46
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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I got you now thanks for clarifying that.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 11:47
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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Car on fire outside of T3
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 11:55
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like it's actually at the bottom of the ramp to T1 drop off.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 19:47
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LAX_LHR View Post
Monarch had a declared seat capacity of just over 750,000 seats this winter according to ACL.

Now, we know not all of those seats will have been filled, but if we work on an average load factor of 85% (a realistic figure), then that's a loss of 637,500 passengers. Monarch had less of a seasonal variation than some other carriers at MAN, so x2 that's a loss of 1.2million pax.

Jet2 have added 300,000 seats next summer, TUI about 100,000 and Thomas Cook will probably be around 100,000 pax themselves. Easyjet will have at least one extra aircraft next summer, possibly 3 so we can say that's between 100,000-250,000 of extra pax.

Then add in all the other increases such as Cathay going daily, Oman Air still adding into the pax figure until May, Virgin adding 40,000 seats, Air Arabia Maroc, Powedair and such, that's potentially another 100,000. So, we are looking at 800,000 seats.

However, we also have the Loss of Norwegian sun routes, vueling ALC/TFS/FCO and no doubt other little losses over time, then that's probably about 100,000 lost.

Therefore, I fear MAN may start entering the negative territory, unless something is pulled out of the bag, to which I'm hearing rumours there may be something in the offing, but, no concrete rumours.
You also need to factor in the planned Ryanair reductions for the winter too.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 19:56
  #176 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
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MON customers will not just stay at home because MON has gone !

Jet2, TUI, TCX, EZY, RYR etc will just mop most of them up.

I'd expect MAN to at least hold its own despite the sad loss of MON.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 20:06
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Fascinating....sounds a re adoption of MON`s very own type of business logic..
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 20:26
  #178 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
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So MON's customers will just stay at home ? Maybe sample Skegness for a week instead
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 20:33
  #179 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
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With respect - it's not that simple
Mrs FFMAN and myself along with 4 friends were booked on a MON flight in November. After the sad demise of MON, we looked at alternatives. The best was Easyjet at 526 pp against the 180 pp from MON. We have all decided to put it down to experience and not bother this time.
It's not so much the money - it's the principle.

So no doubt some will fly other airlines but many won't. MON was offering very good deals (we now know why) that were incentives to travel where perhaps people might not have bothered previously.
Plenty won't bother now
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 20:45
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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MON were forecasting even bigger losses next year, which suggests to me that forward bookings were poor. I think that there would have been considerable surplus capacity next year, and there will be no need to replace all the lost rotations, except of course for routes not served by another airline.
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