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Old 27th Jun 2019, 02:17
  #3161 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Originally Posted by FFMAN View Post
One thing that has really been noticeable between 3 years ago and now is that recently I have been almost certainly the only non-Chinese (origin?) person on the entire plane whereas at the beginning it was much more mixed. I take from that that the service just ain't cutting it with the locals here.
I expect the growth of CX from 4 weekly to daily, and now on their latest kit the A350-1000, will have lured away some of the locals and business passengers who previously tried Hainan to mainland China. The UK originating demand for China is only a fraction the size of the China originating traffic. Finnair also appear to be doing very well with many flights now on A320/A321 rather than E195s, and much of their traffic connects beyond Helsinki to China and the Far East. The pot is only so large I suppose
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Old 27th Jun 2019, 08:03
  #3162 (permalink)  
 
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Could be an element of truth in that but I don't think they're the only or even the main factors.
For a start HK is a long long way beyond Beijing and you have already overflown almost all of China on the way there, so almost everything China from HK is doubling back on yourself. CX are also significantly more expensive than HU (with good reason).

I do think HU suffers some structural disadvantages in the MAN (or UK in general) to China market.
1) Brits love their frequent flyer programs and particularly the main three global ones so if you're flying to PEK from MAN you can fly through AMS, FRA or HEL and get a stack of points for your trouble - or with HU where you don't.
2) There is a brand awareness issue - even after 3 years - before the last trip someone asked me who I was flying with followed by the almost inevitable 'never heard of them' response. Another popular retort is 'sounds a bit dodgy to me'. Brand awareness is not an issue on the Chinese side though.
3) Decent connections at the PEK end are limited and naturally limited at the MAN end despite a few UK and Ireland ones from other airlines that tend to get called out for a passport swipe prior to boarding. There is also the possibility of having to switch terminals to make a connection as well which in both airports is a nightmare. This might imply an over-reliance on point to point MAN-PEK.

There's no doubt either that at 4pw it is not ideal from a business perspective (it always works out that either the inbound or outbound leg of any trip won't work). I've had agents who when confronted with one leg being non-op revert naturally to the 'safe' options through a hub. It is only because of my strong knowledge of who flies where and when that I can correct them.
Given all the above disadvantages it is perhaps a testament to the strength of MAN and the route itself that it's just completed three years of ops.
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Old 27th Jun 2019, 12:09
  #3163 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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If MAN were to ever get a PVG link then it'd probably kill off the HU PEK service, but would probably be more successful.

The CX always appears to be full up front when I travel- despite it being expensive ( & always pricier than LHR or LGW), but I've never noticed many connecting to China on it.

For me, CX price & flight timings make the Finnair option much more user friendly. Evening departure much better, although the lousy E190s of AY are not a good connection, cramped and full. Don't know why they don't use A321/A321 on all MAN-HEL flights. If CX were to introduce an evening departure then I'd be more inclined to use it more.

With CX buying Hong Kong Express I suppose there are options to increase China connections. HK Express was part of the Hainan Group- so you do wonder what the future holds for that group?
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Old 27th Jun 2019, 22:25
  #3164 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
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Seems like it's not just Hainan's Manchester service that's under performing. Their Edinburgh service is on the rocks too. Lets hope that the cargo in the belly is keeping the MAN route profitable.

Hainan Airlines’ Edinburgh flights ‘under negotiation’

June 26th 2019
​​​
Edinburgh’s direct flights with Beijing are “under negotiation” as China’s Hainan Airlines considers whether to continue with the service beyond October.

A source from the airline, speaking to Daily Business, confirmed recent speculation that it is reviewing the four times a week service, which includes two via Dublin.

‘It is under negotiation. We are looking at whether to fly during the winter or whether to bring in a partner,” he said, “Winter is challenging and [passenger numbers] will go down.”

He said bookings were being taken until October and the intention would be to resume next summer. Planes would be 80% full during July and August, but numbers are expected to decline sharply in the winter. It is thought the airline expects visitors from China to tail off significantly at the end of the Festival.

In June last year, Edinburgh Airport chief executive Gordon Dewar described the arrival of Hainan Airlines as a “momentous day.”
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Old 27th Jun 2019, 22:37
  #3165 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by HKGBOY View Post
If MAN were to ever get a PVG link then it'd probably kill off the HU PEK service, but would probably be more successful.

The CX always appears to be full up front when I travel- despite it being expensive ( & always pricier than LHR or LGW), but I've never noticed many connecting to China on it.

For me, CX price & flight timings make the Finnair option much more user friendly. Evening departure much better, although the lousy E190s of AY are not a good connection, cramped and full. Don't know why they don't use A321/A321 on all MAN-HEL flights. If CX were to introduce an evening departure then I'd be more inclined to use it more.

With CX buying Hong Kong Express I suppose there are options to increase China connections. HK Express was part of the Hainan Group- so you do wonder what the future holds for that group?
The ERJ190 (and the ERJ’s in general) tend to be very popular among passengers. Many carriers keep the config to 100 or less meaning the seat pitch is favourable and the 2+2 seating is popular.
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Old 27th Jun 2019, 22:53
  #3166 (permalink)  
 
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Don`t see many Embraers on Finnair now mainly Airbuses infact I can only see 5 all month so far and all on evening flight

Ian
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Old 28th Jun 2019, 10:04
  #3167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by easyflyer83 View Post


The ERJ190 (and the ERJ’s in general) tend to be very popular among passengers. Many carriers keep the config to 100 or less meaning the seat pitch is favourable and the 2+2 seating is popular.
Not in Business class - they are not popular.
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Old 29th Jun 2019, 07:19
  #3168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nostoodian View Post
Seems like it's not just Hainan's Manchester service that's under performing. Their Edinburgh service is on the rocks too. Lets hope that the cargo in the belly is keeping the MAN route profitable.
Sorry - can't let you get away with that bit of opinion dressed as fact. Who has said the MAN service is 'on the rocks'? How do you know it is under-performing unless you work for the airline's finance department?...which you almost certainly do not. You have no idea whatsoever of the route's performance so don't pretend that you do.
On the other hand - it has been well reported that the Edinburgh service is 'under negotiation'.

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Old 29th Jun 2019, 09:40
  #3169 (permalink)  
 
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We know the Hainan flights are averaging around the 70% loads for SLF and much of that take up by CAISSA and party approved Tourists and Chinese students whilst maintaining healthy cargo loads.

We also know Hainan continues to route sizeable SLF loads on non op days through Brussels.

We also know Chinese airlines profitability targets are much lower that comparable western carriers due to the political imperatives placed on them from above indeed from the VERY TOP LEADERSHIP of the PRC -through The Belt and Road Initiative, and the Grand Design strategies and similar regional government imperatives set for the medium term economic growth target.

All of those have aviation as their primary driver right now and not a little amount of Keynesian economics attached me thinks.

It is however noticeable that daily operations haven’t returned after summer season one, however loads have been consistently about 70% or so.

Someone mentioned low take up by UK departing traffic and that many continue to prefer one stop routes via the usual hubs with J traffic particularly taking the time hit to “BENEFIT” from awards or better said advance paid for bribes offered for the higher fares AND inconvenience.

The Chinese aren’t quite a swayed by a a promise of few free miles with strings attached , sandwich and glass of something cold at x2 x5 or even x10 base fares in large numbers yet , unless of course the party is paying the tab one way or another and ALL those will be boarding the traditional communist liveried planes that’s how it works.

In the same breath that person also complains that the lunch time UK departure is in its self somehow more inconvenient !
As for those mid night Beijing departures a very sizable slice of the EU bound flights depart at this time, and allow for a host of inbound Chinese cities to funnel in both SLF and boxes to be loaded west.

The long hold on Shanghai looks to be easing from my sources as the Air China and China Eastern war is side stepped in a very Chinese way.
The new entrant approach - let’s pretend Juneyeo is just such a new entrant for a minute............
Oh news flash its really just another Air China shell - As usual the CAAC will ignore that technicality I am sure.

And who has the current Shanghai - Manchester traffic rights ! Problem solved me thinks .
See you in the spring of 2020 !

MANTRA Chinese aviation ain’t all it appears in its multi coloured differing named carriers and certainly isn’t a western profit driven business model.




Last edited by Rutan16; 29th Jun 2019 at 10:06. Reason: More ecpvidence
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Old 29th Jun 2019, 10:27
  #3170 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
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Originally Posted by FFMAN View Post
Sorry - can't let you get away with that bit of opinion dressed as fact. Who has said the MAN service is 'on the rocks'? How do you know it is under-performing unless you work for the airline's finance department?...which you almost certainly do not. You have no idea whatsoever of the route's performance so don't pretend that you do.
On the other hand - it has been well reported that the Edinburgh service is 'under negotiation'.
Actually I don't know and was just surmising and maybe that wasn't wise. I'm not an aviation route expert in anyway or form, in fact far from it. Apologies for making assumptions.

The Hainan PEK route may have some similarities to the MAN Saudi route before when Saudi were using 777 aircraft with low load factors but with a very healthy belly of cargo. I may also be wrong. I can imagine MAN - PEK being a healthy cargo route though for Hainan.

Let's also not forget that Hainan started off 4 weekly all year round, went up to 7 weekly, dropped down to 3 weekly in the winter and then dropped down to 4 weekly in the summer. I'm not sure of the winter schedule now. Is it still 3 weekly? From reading Scottie Dog's analysis reports the load factors don't appear to be very good compared year on year, that doesn't mean as you say that the route is underperforming in the eyes of Hainan.

Scottie Dog would you be able to work out an average load factor for the last two years of operations? This would be interesting to see.
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Old 29th Jun 2019, 10:51
  #3171 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting insights Rutan. Not sure who was saying that a lunchtime departure is hurting loads but it wasn't me. As an actual passenger I said in an earlier post
On flight times: outbound from MAN frankly it's spot on
No early alarm, breakfast at home, miss the rush hour in the taxi and in the terminal, nice lunch on board - it's perfect. Also the CX flight to HKG goes roughly the same time and that doesn't hurt loads.

One thing that does occur to me after reading some of the responses is that a 70% LF on an A333 would be more like a 100% LF on a 787 and people would be trumpeting it's success. Given that the A333 is the largest plane in Hainan's fleet there has to be another reason and that surely must be, as others have pointed to already, cargo. As a pax I never notice how much cargo is loaded any more than I notice how many bags go on. Maybe I'll have a peek next time I'm on it.

From what you're saying Rutan, looks like Shanghai is now imminent
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Old 29th Jun 2019, 11:35
  #3172 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nostoodian View Post

Scottie Dog would you be able to work out an average load factor for the last two years of operations? This would be interesting to see.
I think my wife might complain if I spend to much more time doing stats, but I'll see what I can do!! The problem might be ascertaining the available seats for the "2017/2018" months. 🙄🙄
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Old 29th Jun 2019, 12:33
  #3173 (permalink)  
 
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Beijing

Originally Posted by Nostoodian View Post
Actually I don't know and was just surmising and maybe that wasn't wise. I'm not an aviation route expert in anyway or form, in fact far from it. Apologies for making assumptions.

The Hainan PEK route may have some similarities to the MAN Saudi route before when Saudi were using 777 aircraft with low load factors but with a very healthy belly of cargo. I may also be wrong. I can imagine MAN - PEK being a healthy cargo route though for Hainan.

Let's also not forget that Hainan started off 4 weekly all year round, went up to 7 weekly, dropped down to 3 weekly in the winter and then dropped down to 4 weekly in the summer. I'm not sure of the winter schedule now. Is it still 3 weekly? From reading Scottie Dog's analysis reports the load factors don't appear to be very good compared year on year, that doesn't mean as you say that the route is underperforming in the eyes of Hainan.

Scottie Dog would you be able to work out an average load factor for the last two years of operations? This would be interesting to see.
Credit CAA:

2018 passengers 75536 sectors reported 372 average per flight 203 (CAA Punctuality stats for the sectors)

2017 passengers 90161 sectors reported 484 average per flight 186

To get the load factor I believe you would need a log of each aircraft operated as the A332 has two configs (214 or 260), the A333 two configs (292 & 303), the 788 C36/Y177 and the 789 C30/Y262 - Credit: Planespotters.net

I don't have the specific aircraft type operated although it would be available somewhere, perhaps [color=center=#222222]Scottie Dog [/color]can get the data.

Pete
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Old 30th Jun 2019, 08:16
  #3174 (permalink)  
 
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Air Canada

I see the Saturday AC Rouge YYZ service was delayed 12 hours on the ground at MAN, However, the mainline AC DUB-YYZ was also delayed 12 hours.
Was there an issue at Toronto -or just a bad AC day?
The MAN Rouge always seems to have some delay to departure even when it arrives on time, are they still with Swissport?

With the takeover of Air Transat by Air Canada, presumably there will be some consolidation of YYZ/YVR service by this time next year? Maybe a year round service at last.
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Old 30th Jun 2019, 08:21
  #3175 (permalink)  
 
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but which would you prefer TS or ACr ? As I suspect you can't have both, unless they make certain bases one of each.
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Old 30th Jun 2019, 09:56
  #3176 (permalink)  
 
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Air Transat personally
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Old 30th Jun 2019, 11:25
  #3177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chaps1954 View Post
Air Transat personally
Personally I'd hope for AC mainline (they have taken over the Rouge from Dublin)
AC Rouge is pretty ropey product IMHO (not at particularly cheap price). Never flown with Transat though.
In 2015 I got lucky when mainline operated the Rouge service for a few days- getting Business class for the price of Premium Rouge.
Even now you are often offered more favourable fares with AC mainline via DUB or BRU than the Rouge fares direct.
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Old 30th Jun 2019, 12:32
  #3178 (permalink)  
 
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Hadn`t even included them in my predictions but a daily A330 or B789 would be nice but a B788 is too small except in winter.
I can see the Canada Rouge product being dropped from Manchester and a small increase in Air Transat flights
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Old 1st Jul 2019, 07:09
  #3179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nostoodian View Post
Actually I don't know and was just surmising and maybe that wasn't wise. I'm not an aviation route expert in anyway or form, in fact far from it. Apologies for making assumptions.

The Hainan PEK route may have some similarities to the MAN Saudi route before when Saudi were using 777 aircraft with low load factors but with a very healthy belly of cargo. I may also be wrong. I can imagine MAN - PEK being a healthy cargo route though for Hainan.

Let's also not forget that Hainan started off 4 weekly all year round, went up to 7 weekly, dropped down to 3 weekly in the winter and then dropped down to 4 weekly in the summer. I'm not sure of the winter schedule now. Is it still 3 weekly? From reading Scottie Dog's analysis reports the load factors don't appear to be very good compared year on year, that doesn't mean as you say that the route is underperforming in the eyes of Hainan.

Scottie Dog would you be able to work out an average load factor for the last two years of operations? This would be interesting to see.
Hainan are usually pretty full (like Saudia) BUT the rates Hainan charge are ridiculously cheap. Quite a bit cheaper per kilo than the rest
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Old 1st Jul 2019, 08:31
  #3180 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by HKGBOY View Post
No definite commitment to demolish T1- it's still a wish list item. Certainly won't be 2024. Blue Skylink buckets will be needed for many more years yet.

Aside from Government Airport Taxes- each MAN passenger pays £12.12 each as a Passenger Facility charge in addition to £6.25 per person for security screening. This applies whether you use a loco or a full fare outfit. Some airlines possibly have deals where this is not passed onto MAG in full. However, non the less in 2018 MAG made record profits and paid out record dividends to shareholders.
My understanding is that in 2024 T2 will include a walking link to the base of Pier C. At that point only the gates and departure lounge in T1 are required so I think after this time the main processor will begin to be demolished. I'll be honest though I don't know what will become of the good ship Skylink at that point. Clearly the rail/tram station - Radisson -T2 section is still needed but perhaps the T1 link section will go?!?
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