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Old 12th Oct 2017, 12:55   #181 (permalink)
 
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Looks like it's actually at the bottom of the ramp to T1 drop off.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 20:47   #182 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LAX_LHR View Post
Monarch had a declared seat capacity of just over 750,000 seats this winter according to ACL.

Now, we know not all of those seats will have been filled, but if we work on an average load factor of 85% (a realistic figure), then that's a loss of 637,500 passengers. Monarch had less of a seasonal variation than some other carriers at MAN, so x2 that's a loss of 1.2million pax.

Jet2 have added 300,000 seats next summer, TUI about 100,000 and Thomas Cook will probably be around 100,000 pax themselves. Easyjet will have at least one extra aircraft next summer, possibly 3 so we can say that's between 100,000-250,000 of extra pax.

Then add in all the other increases such as Cathay going daily, Oman Air still adding into the pax figure until May, Virgin adding 40,000 seats, Air Arabia Maroc, Powedair and such, that's potentially another 100,000. So, we are looking at 800,000 seats.

However, we also have the Loss of Norwegian sun routes, vueling ALC/TFS/FCO and no doubt other little losses over time, then that's probably about 100,000 lost.

Therefore, I fear MAN may start entering the negative territory, unless something is pulled out of the bag, to which I'm hearing rumours there may be something in the offing, but, no concrete rumours.
You also need to factor in the planned Ryanair reductions for the winter too.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 20:56   #183 (permalink)
 
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MON customers will not just stay at home because MON has gone !

Jet2, TUI, TCX, EZY, RYR etc will just mop most of them up.

I'd expect MAN to at least hold its own despite the sad loss of MON.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 21:06   #184 (permalink)
 
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Fascinating....sounds a re adoption of MON`s very own type of business logic..
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 21:26   #185 (permalink)
 
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So MON's customers will just stay at home ? Maybe sample Skegness for a week instead
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 21:33   #186 (permalink)
 
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With respect - it's not that simple
Mrs FFMAN and myself along with 4 friends were booked on a MON flight in November. After the sad demise of MON, we looked at alternatives. The best was Easyjet at £526 pp against the £180 pp from MON. We have all decided to put it down to experience and not bother this time.
It's not so much the money - it's the principle.

So no doubt some will fly other airlines but many won't. MON was offering very good deals (we now know why) that were incentives to travel where perhaps people might not have bothered previously.
Plenty won't bother now
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 21:45   #187 (permalink)
 
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MON were forecasting even bigger losses next year, which suggests to me that forward bookings were poor. I think that there would have been considerable surplus capacity next year, and there will be no need to replace all the lost rotations, except of course for routes not served by another airline.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 19:44   #188 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by eggc

100% agree with FFMAN if you're due to be flying over the coming days/next few weeks with Monarch then there's a lot of people who aren't going to travel simple fact as FFMAN has already shown Easyjet/Ryanair and all the other major airlines UK and non UK have put there prices up sky high all jumped in and said hey easy money to make here supply is down demand is up we have all these people needing to get home now lets charge them arm and leg they will pay it or either customer will be stranded abroad or they don't travel, and remember think it's only 5% of Monarch business was package holidays rest were mainly flight only, now what other airlines are mainly based on flight only booking (ie not package holidays) yes that's right Easyjet/Ryanair and co and remember most people who booked with Monarch on flight only are not ATOL protected and many will not get there money back
Now next summer and beyond yes people who travelled with Monarch are obviously going to book with a different tour operator/airline and yes tui/Thomas cook/ easjet/Norwegian/ryan air etc are all going to benefit you have one less competitor
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 23:02   #189 (permalink)
 
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Looks like there are no more MON repatriation flights from MAN, all seem to be either going via another airport or they are putting passengers on other airlines.
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Old 15th Oct 2017, 19:06   #190 (permalink)
 
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DUAL RUNWAY OPERATIONS

I was just looking through the ACL Summer 2018 Capacity Declaration for Manchester and see, interestingly, that they do now show dual runways operations as follows:

Mon-Fri
0500z-1959z

Sat
0500z-1459z

Sun
0500z-0830z
1200z-1958z
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Old 15th Oct 2017, 22:41   #191 (permalink)
 
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AA

Heard a rumour today that AA will bring back the Charlotte service next year.
Anyone else?
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Old 15th Oct 2017, 23:32   #192 (permalink)
 
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As long as they bring back all the Bronte sisters, Anne and Emily, too. Sounds like fiction to me
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Old 16th Oct 2017, 12:57   #193 (permalink)
 
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CLT is not coming back.
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Old 16th Oct 2017, 22:28   #194 (permalink)
 
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After the 25th Sept "we'll take 1 diversion and no more" stunt, today Manchester has dealt with 8 diversions, including Shannon's KU 777. Guess 9 sadly missing MON airbuses have made some space available.
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Old 16th Oct 2017, 22:38   #195 (permalink)
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Busy day all round - three inbound emergencies (two returning after departure) within about 90 minutes this afternoon.
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Old 17th Oct 2017, 14:26   #196 (permalink)
 
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I had the real displeasure of arriving back with KLM into T3 at the weekend after a re-routing (shudder).
It got me thinking. T3 is over-crowded, T2 is not so after the sad loss of Monarch, would now be the time to transfer Air France and KLM from T3 to T2? They would also be in the same terminal as Virgin in whom they have recently invested.
This would free up some useful space at T3.

From my own perspective, it would also mean that both AF and KLM would come off my personal 'Avoid List' as the T3 experience is so bad that I try to not book flights going through it (although domestic is generally not too bad in fairness).
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Old 17th Oct 2017, 17:28   #197 (permalink)
 
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I think you’d notice very little difference with the movement of AF/KL in the grand scheme of things.

Flown through T3 many times, including very recently, and never really thought it was that bad. By the same token I would never say it is that great either but I wouldn’t really let it sway my airline choice.
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Old 17th Oct 2017, 17:39   #198 (permalink)
 
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If AF/KL were to move out, it would just be more Ryanair moving in and with higher LF and seat capacity, would probably make the terminal even busier.
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Old 18th Oct 2017, 09:30   #199 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easyflyer83 View Post
I think you’d notice very little difference with the movement of AF/KL in the grand scheme of things.

Flown through T3 many times, including very recently, and never really thought it was that bad. By the same token I would never say it is that great either but I wouldn’t really let it sway my airline choice.
I used to fly out of T3 every week until about 4 years ago, it was pleasant, not stellar, but busy while not being slammed. I hadn't returned until this past year and all of my trips have seen the departures lounge a complete mess as it is overflowing in the central hub. Not even standing room around Costa/Boots/WH Smith, or upstairs by the restaurants. You have to go down the international departures wings to find a place to breath let alone sit. Some of this is because of the increased traffic, and some because of the change in traveller type, from business travellers who didn't dwell in the terminal, to leisure which spend a couple hours there. At the same time the number of international passengers arriving has increased, which puts strain on the immigration processing component, domestic arrivals are about the same as they were 4 years ago. If AF & KL moved back to T2 it would surely show for their passengers on arrival, but would lead to significant increase in ground taxi times for the aircraft. Also, there is an issue with premium lounge capacity in T2, at certain times it is oversubscribed, or was prior to the Monarch collapse. Given the T3 seems slightly better provisioned relative to the demand, this might decrease premium traveler experience.
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Old 18th Oct 2017, 10:37   #200 (permalink)
 
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MNG Cargo to relocate to MAN operating a 3x weekly service on a mix of A300 & A330. From Sunday 5th November. Service operates days 2/5/7.

Due to runway resurfacing at Luton in November. Believed to be moving back once work is complete.
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