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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:19
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Originally Posted by TOM100
PDX - u are a tad delusional. How can you say this is a commercial arm when it is being propped up left, right and centre by the WG ?
It is a business that they own and like any shareholders they can choose to invest in the business or not. They don't do the day to day running and it looks to me like they leave any strategic planning of where the business is going up to the management. As you consider the management a joke then surely you should be happy that there are changes a foot!
As for the future in the next 2 to 5 years, as I'm just a planespotter and not a business guru I'd be asking how can the airport diversify its business through St Athan and maximising the potential of the land it holds to replace the lost income from reduced passengers while looking to build those passenger numbers back up.
As for calling Redrow to build houses ask how would it look to Welsh and foreign business and to inbound tourism if Wales doesn't have an airport?
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:35
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Originally Posted by TOM100
PDX - u are a tad delusional. How can you say this is a commercial arm when it is being propped up left, right and centre by the WG ? The current management structure and costs is a joke. Please tell me how this ‘commercial’ organisation is reducing costs (permanently) and funding itself in the wake of a two thirds plus slump in business ? If I were a ‘commercial’ owner I would be seeking buyers to build Barrett or Wimpey homes (in the absence of any viable or public plans to at least make the business cash flow neutral) to realise an asset. the airport seems devoid of any strategy except the begging bowl to the WG !
isnt this supposed to be a business, not a plane spotters project ?s...
I'm curious to know what you think that the airport management should be doing to get the airport to profit in the next 2 to 5 years so it doesn't have to use loans from the WG?
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:35
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
It is a business that they own and like any shareholders they can choose to invest in the business or not. They don't do the day to day running and it looks to me like they leave any strategic planning of where the business is going up to the management. As you consider the management a joke then surely you should be happy that there are changes a foot!
As for the future in the next 2 to 5 years, as I'm just a planespotter and not a business guru I'd be asking how can the airport diversify its business through St Athan and maximising the potential of the land it holds to replace the lost income from reduced passengers while looking to build those passenger numbers back up.
As for calling Redrow to build houses ask how would it look to Welsh and foreign business and to inbound tourism if Wales doesn't have an airport?
Agree, Wales needs an airport. However it also needs to provide other essential services for residents and not an airport at any cost.

it also needs a focussed airport that is well run, on top of costs (especially when revenue falls of a cliff) and attempting to take some control of its own destiny (not blaming external factors).

if they can’t do this, can’t formulate a strategy and right size with the current climate then Wales will just have to be served from BRS, BHX and MAN.

if we are to subsidise heavily a £20m (small) business then I expect them to right size, slim down their senior management and other staff costs (minimal to reflect the size of the business) and reduce the burden to minimal on the Welsh taxpayer. I don’t believe a business of this size needs a Chairman, CEO, FD, Director of Ops, Head of HR, Head of Safety, Head of Commercial (!). to start with. This kind of structure might suit BRS and BHX but not this little airport on a £20m t/o. Last time I looked BRS t/o was around £85m and BHX £145m !
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:36
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It shows that the Government were happy to lend on commercial terms even in the circumstances that we know find ourselves in.
This approach has always baffled me - if the loan is on commercial terms, why borrow from WG, why not use a bank like the commercial business it purports to be? It's not like WG doesn't have other uses for the money

It is a business that they own and like any shareholders they can choose to invest in the business or not.
As for calling Redrow to build houses ask how would it look to Welsh and foreign business and to inbound tourism if Wales doesn't have an airport?
There's the rub, isn't it? If it was a commercial business, why would they be bothered? If it is an instrument of WG's industrial policy, say so.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:37
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Originally Posted by TOM100
interesting - but what if they have no means to repay such a loan ? Then what ? A slightly rhetorical question - I know what would happen in the ‘real’ world......
As shareholder they can either convert the loans to equity or just defer them or issue a new loan to pay the other loan.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:42
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
As shareholder they can either convert the loans to equity or just defer them or issue a new loan to pay the other loan.
but if they have no income/profit after costs how do they pay any loan ? If they are vastly insolvent, where is this equity ?
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:58
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Originally Posted by TOM100
Agree, Wales needs an airport.
if they can’t do this, can’t formulate a strategy and right size with the current climate then Wales will just have to be served from BRS, BHX and MAN.
That will never happen. No WG even a Tory one could consider Wales not having and airport and just be served from BRS, BHX and MAN.
As for the management there does seem to be quite a lot of them! So apart from cutting a few managers what else do you think they should be doing going forward?
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:59
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
This approach has always baffled me - if the loan is on commercial terms, why borrow from WG, why not use a bank like the commercial business it purports to be? It's not like WG doesn't have other uses for the money





There's the rub, isn't it? If it was a commercial business, why would they be bothered? If it is an instrument of WG's industrial policy, say so.
Because they are government owned any commercial bank loan effects the WG block grant i believe.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 18:00
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
This approach has always baffled me - if the loan is on commercial terms, why borrow from WG, why not use a bank like the commercial business it purports to be? It's not like WG doesn't have other uses for the money





There's the rub, isn't it? If it was a commercial business, why would they be bothered? If it is an instrument of WG's industrial policy, say so.
because I suspect no commercial lender would touch them with a proverbial very long barge pole. Put it this way:-

you go to a lender and say I would like to borrow £x million for ongoing general expenses, but my outgoings are significantly higher than my incomings (I suspect in the case of CWL- in the absence of any mitigation) they are significantly higher, oh and I have these other ‘commercial’ loans (WG) I need to repay and the same lender also has a £52m interest in my other assets (WG).

oh and by the way I have no future visibility on any future income (we have had triple shocks you know - not our fault) and no real future strategy for either cost or income but we are important you know !

and I have this really fat employee costs and management structure - we are a proper airport you know.

I think I know what the answer would be......
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 18:29
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Borrowing by the Welsh Government does not appear to affect its Westminster block grant as long as it keeps within its borrowing powers limit. There is a general provision to meet a current shortfall in receipts from devolved taxes, thus:

The current borrowing powers of the Welsh Ministers are set out in section 121 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 as amended by the Wales Acts 2014. They may borrow funds from the UK Government for the purpose of meeting a temporary excess of sums paid out of the Welsh Consolidated Fund over sums paid into that Fund, any amounts it appears to them are required by them for the purpose of providing a working balance in the Welsh Consolidated Fund and any amounts which in accordance with rules determined by the Treasury are required by the Welsh Ministers to meet current expenditure because of a shortfall in receipts from devolved taxes, or from income tax charged by virtue of a Welsh rate resolution, against forecast receipts.

In addition there is a power, inserted by the Wales Act 2014, to borrow money from the UK Government for capital expenditure. There is a total borrowing cap of £1 billion on this borrowing, of which no more than £150 million can be borrowed annually.

Commercial lenders can also be a source for the capital expenditure borrowing.

https://senedd.wales/laid%20document...12846%20-e.pdf

https://law.gov.wales/constitution-g...erview&lang=en
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 18:41
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Interesting yet I'm pretty sure at one of the Senedd briefings I think it was the CFO Huw Lewis said that it effects the WG block grant.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 18:58
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
That will never happen. No WG even a Tory one could consider Wales not having and airport and just be served from BRS, BHX and MAN.
As for the management there does seem to be quite a lot of them! So apart from cutting a few managers what else do you think they should be doing going forward?
PDX - believe it or not (and as a regular user) I would like to see the airport succeed.

what riles me is the current apparent lack of inaction, too heavy management and apparent lack (or thinking) of any future strategy.

without seeing their accounts it is difficult to say what I would do.

certainly strip all costs out to the absolute bare minimum to operate safely until business returns (and I don’t just mean furlough).

I flew through CWL 2 weeks ago (2 flights operating that day) and I saw the current MD selling coffee and the Ops Director nearby - if they have time to do this then they should be able to combine senior roles into a couple - at least temporarily.

then ruthlessly look at all operating costs.

As to the income side they need to offer aggressive deals to carriers to drive airport use and footfall.

Look to diversify to other airfield use options.

Maybe they are doing these things but as a publicly owned asset I expect them to tell us like a Plc would tell shareholders.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 20:27
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Originally Posted by TOM100
Agree, Wales needs an airport. However it also needs to provide other essential services for residents and not an airport at any cost.

it also needs a focussed airport that is well run, on top of costs (especially when revenue falls of a cliff) and attempting to take some control of its own destiny (not blaming external factors).

if they can’t do this, can’t formulate a strategy and right size with the current climate then Wales will just have to be served from BRS, BHX and MAN.

if we are to subsidise heavily a £20m (small) business then I expect them to right size, slim down their senior management and other staff costs (minimal to reflect the size of the business) and reduce the burden to minimal on the Welsh taxpayer. I don’t believe a business of this size needs a Chairman, CEO, FD, Director of Ops, Head of HR, Head of Safety, Head of Commercial (!). to start with. This kind of structure might suit BRS and BHX but not this little airport on a £20m t/o. Last time I looked BRS t/o was around £85m and BHX £145m !
I would say that the majority of the roles are key roles that are required in any business. If the Airport can be run with a senior management team like this, but doesn't have the tier of middle management and unnecessary "manager" roles that many businesses have, including the likes of BRS and BHX, then i don't see what the problem is.
Without seeing an exact structure from top to bottom, we can't really make judgement on the setup. Also having a Management team that specify in the field they operate under brings better experience and knowledge. Aside from maybe Chairperson & MD/CEO, none of those roles are really linked in any way to be able to combine them.

Also don't forget we are still really in the unknown & unpredictable territory. Many services are in house and there have already been redundancies/reduced hours. Personally I really don't think they are sitting back, drinking coffee and watching tax payers money take off from an empty runway like some people on here make out. They have already diversified in many ways before Covid19 hit, this was ever since the WG bought it. There's only so much noticeable diversification that can be done when things keep going wrong like they are.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 04:39
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Originally Posted by TOM100
PDX - believe it or not (and as a regular user) I would like to see the airport succeed.

what riles me is the current apparent lack of inaction, too heavy management and apparent lack (or thinking) of any future strategy.

without seeing their accounts it is difficult to say what I would do.

certainly strip all costs out to the absolute bare minimum to operate safely until business returns (and I don’t just mean furlough).

I flew through CWL 2 weeks ago (2 flights operating that day) and I saw the current MD selling coffee and the Ops Director nearby - if they have time to do this then they should be able to combine senior roles into a couple - at least temporarily.

then ruthlessly look at all operating costs.

As to the income side they need to offer aggressive deals to carriers to drive airport use and footfall.

Look to diversify to other airfield use options.

Maybe they are doing these things but as a publicly owned asset I expect them to tell us like a Plc would tell shareholders.
With regards to accountability they do make yearly report's to the Senedd and get scrutinsed by committee and had to do the same for the most recent loan.
Personally I think it says something about ethos if the management in a time of crisis is willing to pitch in at the coal face.
As for operating costs what can they cut? A lot of their costs come from regulation, the other costs is of course staff. CWL as far as I know hasn't cut any yet.
The new finance director is replacing Huw Lewis the CFO.
Airline wise it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next year with demand down, I'd have thought that they'd be trying to persuade TUI especially not to cut flights or based aircraft for 2021.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 05:09
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
With regards to accountability they do make yearly report's to the Senedd and get scrutinsed by committee and had to do the same for the most recent loan.
Personally I think it says something about ethos if the management in a time of crisis is willing to pitch in at the coal face.
As for operating costs what can they cut? A lot of their costs come from regulation, the other costs is of course staff. CWL as far as I know hasn't cut any yet.
The new finance director is replacing Huw Lewis the CFO.
Airline wise it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next year with demand down, I'd have thought that they'd be trying to persuade TUI especially not to cut flights or based aircraft for 2021.
PDX - and that’s the rub of my argument - what are they doing to take cost out (yes staff including Senior Management) - someone needs to hold them and the WG to account as this is taxpayers money. In addition to the roles I mention above, last time I looked there were also non execs, Head of marketing, terminal manager and this is before we get to the front line people.

If you assume revenue is down c60% (probably more) in the current FY that means this is an £8m business with some days a single pax flight and on a good day, maybe 6. This will reduce significantly in a couple of months (as Winter scheds kick in).

How can this structure (and cost) be justified in the current business climate ?


I was being deliberately controversial about the MD serving coffee (but this is true) - the actions of this business do not appear to be one of a business in commercial distress and acting like a ‘normal’ commercial business to take immediate cost action.

Yes, some roles are regulatory but given low pax numbers (and no visibility of growth from anywhere) - the business, like any business, needs to right size. Where is the commercial oversight and scrutiny coming from ?

Aren’t the people of Wales entitled to ask these questions ? I just hope they have a plan as Furlough tapers off or I will be asking serious questions of my AM (who happens to also be FM) and opposition AMs as to accountability.

Last edited by TOM100; 13th Aug 2020 at 05:19.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 06:04
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Originally Posted by TOM100
PDX - and that’s the rub of my argument - what are they doing to take cost out (yes staff including Senior Management) - someone needs to hold them and the WG to account as this is taxpayers money. In addition to the roles I mention above, last time I looked there were also non execs, Head of marketing, terminal manager and this is before we get to the front line people.

If you assume revenue is down c60% (probably more) in the current FY that means this is an £8m business with some days a single pax flight and on a good day, maybe 6. This will reduce significantly in a couple of months (as Winter scheds kick in).

How can this structure (and cost) be justified in the current business climate ?


I was being deliberately controversial about the MD serving coffee (but this is true) - the actions of this business do not appear to be one of a business in commercial distress and acting like a ‘normal’ commercial business to take immediate cost action.

Yes, some roles are regulatory but given low pax numbers (and no visibility of growth from anywhere) - the business, like any business, needs to right size. Where is the commercial oversight and scrutiny coming from ?

Aren’t the people of Wales entitled to ask these questions ? I just hope they have a plan as Furlough tapers off or I will be asking serious questions of my AM (who happens to also be FM) and opposition AMs as to accountability.
Well come winter TUI should be operating a daily flight except Wednesdays, KLM back to 3 daily, Qatar and Vueling should be operating 5 weekly flights each with Ryanair 1 weekly Malta. Eastern should be back with 10 weekly VLY. Doesn't seem like much but better than nothing.
When it comes to summer 2021 we will have to see what happens with airlines and by how much demand picks up.
Replacing the lost Flybe network does look like it'll be a challenge for Cardiff.
Loganair seem to have run a mile from Edinburgh and Glasgow for whatever reason.
Aer lingus obviously doesn't see CWL as a core route for Belfast and no doubt will be hoping to prop up its Dublin and Cork routes at Bristol with Welsh passengers rather than flying directly to Wales. Same with Ryanair on Dublin.
Blue Islands seem focused on Exeter and Southampton and may well be hoping Welsh passengers top up their Jersey route at Bristol as well.
Eastern might be the best option but at the moment they seem to be concerned with Southampton and Teesside.
As for scrutiny short of setting up a committee or panel or holding some sort of inquiry i don't see how the airport can get more scrutiny than it is getting now.
I think with CWL we are going to have to trust the management as its going to take a while for the airport to recover sadly.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 06:43
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
Well come winter TUI should be operating a daily flight except Wednesdays, KLM back to 3 daily, Qatar and Vueling should be operating 5 weekly flights each with Ryanair 1 weekly Malta. Eastern should be back with 10 weekly VLY. Doesn't seem like much but better than nothing.
When it comes to summer 2021 we will have to see what happens with airlines and by how much demand picks up.
Replacing the lost Flybe network does look like it'll be a challenge for Cardiff.
Loganair seem to have run a mile from Edinburgh and Glasgow for whatever reason.
Aer lingus obviously doesn't see CWL as a core route for Belfast and no doubt will be hoping to prop up its Dublin and Cork routes at Bristol with Welsh passengers rather than flying directly to Wales. Same with Ryanair on Dublin.
Blue Islands seem focused on Exeter and Southampton and may well be hoping Welsh passengers top up their Jersey route at Bristol as well.
Eastern might be the best option but at the moment they seem to be concerned with Southampton and Teesside.
As for scrutiny short of setting up a committee or panel or holding some sort of inquiry i don't see how the airport can get more scrutiny than it is getting now.
I think with CWL we are going to have to trust the management as its going to take a while for the airport to recover sadly.
i sincerely hope you are correct about the winter prospects - although I think that is very optimistic. However, imo, with my business perspective even that level of activity does not justify the very heavy cost and management my structure of this business.

i guess we’ll have to disagree on the airport management and strategy as you will probably have gathered, I don’t have trust and confidence in the commercial leadership of the airport. Time will tell.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 06:44
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Originally Posted by TOM100
i sincerely hope you are correct about the winter prospects - although I think that is very optimistic.

i guess we’ll have to disagree on the airport management and strategy as you will probably have gathered, I don’t have trust and confidence in the commercial leadership of the airport. Time will tell.
That's whats onsale the last time I looked.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 07:54
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
That's whats onsale the last time I looked.
I think the last few months have demonstrated what is on sale and what actually flies can be quite different. TUI are still selling Spain, Canaries and Balearics for the end of this month - will they fly ?
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 08:19
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Originally Posted by TOM100
I think the last few months have demonstrated what is on sale and what actually flies can be quite different. TUI are still selling Spain, Canaries and Balearics for the end of this month - will they fly ?
Yep there is a possibility that some flights won't operate but that is completely out of the airports control. I think the last 6 months has shown that the airport is completely at the mercy of airlines.
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